News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)
Odaily News: According to data from Gate's event contracts platform, in the event regarding "What price level will WTI crude oil reach in August 2026," the probability of crude oil touching $85 or above is as high as 69%, while the probabilities of touching below $75 and above $90 are 53% and 41% respectively, indicating an overall bullish market expectation.Meanwhile, Gate has launched the "Global Financial Duet" limited-time campaign, running from 18:00 on July 24 to 18:00 on August 28 (UTC+8). The campaign integrates Gate's stock section with Polymarket, covering earnings season and macroeconomic data hotspots. Users who complete stock or financial market prediction trades each week can earn up to 150 USDT in stock trading fee rebate vouchers and 150 USDT in event contract trial vouchers per week, while also participating in two independent leaderboards—"Stocks" and "Predictions"—with a weekly prize pool of up to 40,000 USDT to share, bringing the total prize pool to 200,000 USDT. Additionally, the campaign offers multiple extra benefits, including welcome trading gifts for new users, VIP 5+ registration rewards, and a shared hot topic calendar.
Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31 stands at 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation for the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%. On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to advance the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will return on September 14, and per procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit financial activity provisions, and stablecoin yield. The bill will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in Polymarket's "When will the Strait of Hormuz resume normal navigation?" prediction market, a wallet with a 93% win rate (0xa52b785a5510117ac3ae03d75d029f89a36c9480) purchased positions worth $158,000 betting that navigation will not resume before August 15, with an average entry price of 98.6¢ and a total of 160,003.1 shares bought.According to US media reports, Oman has agreed to reach a framework agreement with Iran to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the agreement has not yet been officially announced, and whether the US will support it still depends on the final details.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted data revealing that over the past month, Polymarket's website traffic reached 43.1 million visits (according to Similarweb data), surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi, and has become one of the most visited fintech applications globally. Nick Tomaino believes that the core reason for Polymarket's growth is not marketing investment, but rather its value primarily as a "source of information," where users hope to better understand the real world through prediction markets. Polymarket currently dominates the on-chain prediction market sector; the transparency and global accessibility brought by the on-chain architecture are key to achieving the long-term goal of "better information and more truth." However, Polymarket's U.S. application is still in the early stages, but the product and business model are gradually maturing and beginning to enter an accelerated execution phase.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "WTI Crude Oil Price Hit in August" prediction event, the probability of WTI crude falling to $75/barrel rose to 77%, up 11% in 24 hours; the probability of falling to $70/barrel rose to 45%, up 12% in 24 hours.Earlier, oil prices were driven up by escalating tensions in the Middle East, but after Trump announced a halt to military action against Iran and indicated that the U.S. and Iran would enter a new round of negotiations, market concerns over supply disruptions began to ease, causing the risk premium on crude to quickly retreat. WTI crude prices have now fallen to around $80/barrel.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Polymarket has announced that, to enhance the manipulation resistance of its cryptocurrency up/down prediction markets, affected markets will transition from single price snapshot settlement to Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) settlement starting from 00:00 UTC on August 7. Specifically, the 5-minute markets will adopt a 30-second TWAP, while the 15-minute and 4-hour markets will adopt a 60-second TWAP.Additionally, the platform will provide a total of $1 million in liquidity rewards for the relevant markets throughout August. Chainlink's TWAP testnet data feed is now live, with the mainnet data feed and Polymarket's Real-Time Data Streams (RTDS) scheduled to go live on August 4, 2026.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
as the esports event prediction market continues to heat up, the League of Legends LCK (Legends Group Round 3-4) is featuring a marquee matchup: T1 will face KT Rolster at 18:00 (UTC+8) on July 29. According to the latest data from the Gate prediction market, T1 currently holds a support rate of approximately 79%, while KT Rolster stands at around 22%. The Gate prediction market closely follows global sports and esports hotspots, continuously enriching trading scenarios to deliver an efficient and seamless one-stop prediction experience for users.Gate is launching the "Esports Peak Trading Season" from July 20, 16:00 to August 10, 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. After registering, users who participate in designated esports event prediction trades on the Gate prediction market can unlock newcomer benefits, weekly task rewards, and compete on the esports prediction trading leaderboard. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become a key gateway for users to engage with prediction markets. Users can access Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage, using USDT in their accounts to conveniently participate in prediction market trades for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining additional reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, offering users a diversified prediction trading experience covering popular esports events and other major happenings.
on Polymarket, Apple has around a 79% probability of becoming the world's most valuable company by the end of July, while Nvidia's probability has dropped to approximately 22%. The cumulative trading volume for this prediction market is about $4.7 million. At Tuesday's close, Apple's market cap was approximately $4.995 trillion, and Nvidia's market cap stood at about $4.768 trillion, giving Apple a lead of roughly $227 billion. This contract will be settled based on the market caps of the two companies at the close of trading on July 31. Apple is scheduled to release its third fiscal quarter earnings on July 30 at 5 PM Eastern Time. Nvidia's latest fiscal quarter saw data center revenue grow by 75% to $62.3 billion.
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket event "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points after the July meeting?", a new account (0x0c689c8e78588fd3d02e56a6e787e7f9e9b09e76) purchased $196,000 worth of shares predicting the Federal Reserve will not raise rates by 25 basis points after the July meeting, with an entry price of 72.5¢.This event will determine the adjustment range of the federal funds target rate upper bound compared to before the meeting, based on the statement released by the Federal Reserve after the July FOMC meeting.If the rate adjustment range does not correspond to an existing option, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for settlement. For example, a rate cut or hike of 12.5 basis points will be calculated as 25 basis points.Settlement is based on the official FOMC meeting statement and federal funds target rate data released by the Federal Reserve. If no relevant statement is released before the next scheduled meeting concludes, the event will be settled as "No Change."The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Prediction market traders have priced the probability of OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 by September 30 at approximately 78%. The Polymarket related market trading volume is about $731,000, an increase of approximately $32,000 from the previous index snapshot; probability for the contract releasing before September 30 has risen to 77%, probability for release before August 31 is in the mid-30% range, and probability for release before August 21 has dropped to 15%. On Myriad, the probability for a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not yet publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. The company also announced the addition of 250 new positions in Dublin, while SoftBank is providing financing for OpenAI's related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.
the long-awaited digital asset regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, has hit a snag in its advancement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate is not expected to pass the bill before the August recess.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, promoting the integration of blockchain and crypto assets into the mainstream financial system. Previously, the bill had undergone multiple rounds of negotiations between the crypto industry and opposing forces, such as the banking sector, and was once considered close to passage.However, recent controversy surrounding conflicts of interest related to President Donald Trump and his family's involvement in crypto projects has emerged as a new obstacle. Democrats are demanding the inclusion of ethical clauses in the bill that would restrict government officials from profiting from crypto transactions, a stance Republicans have previously opposed. Prediction market data indicates that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has significantly declined. Polymarket data shows that as of Friday, the probability stood at approximately 37%, well below the over 80% level seen earlier this spring.Crypto policy organizations and industry insiders believe the current delay is largely influenced by the political dynamics of the U.S. midterm elections. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, stated that the votes to support the bill may still exist, but "election politics are louder." He suggested that a window for advancing the bill could still emerge after the November elections.Analysts point out that if Congress needs to prioritize major issues such as government funding and national defense before the end of its current term, the CLARITY Act could be further marginalized. As the U.S. political landscape may shift following the midterm elections, the outlook for crypto regulatory legislation remains highly uncertain. (Fortune)
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that in the Polymarket prediction event "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire," the probability for August 14 is currently 34%, down 1% in a week; the probability for August 31 is currently 51%, down 3% in a week.According to the resolution rules, if at any point between the market creation and the specified deadline (Eastern Time 23:59), there begins a consecutive 14-day period during which the US does not conduct qualifying military actions against Iran, the market will resolve to "Yes." Qualifying military actions refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks initiated by the US that directly strike targets within Iranian territory.It is reported that the US military has conducted strikes against Iranian military targets for the 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Trump. Neither side has yet signaled de-escalation in the short term. However, according to sources close to the matter, Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the protracted war, while his advisors worry that the conflict has driven up prices, hurt approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of over a dozen US soldiers. This continues to drain the political capital of the Trump administration and could further impact the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026" is currently at 61%, up 51% in 24 hours; additionally, the probability of "release before July 24" is at 9%; the probability of "release before July 25" is at 5%;This event will be settled based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model becomes available to the public. Only models explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic are valid, and they must be accessible to the public (including public beta testing or open waitlist). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not counted. The final settlement will primarily rely on official Anthropic information.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated prediction market operator Kalshi, allowing some clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts through existing digital asset trading infrastructure without needing a separate connection. Talos will provide algorithmic order types such as Iceberg, TWAP, and POV, as well as multi-leg execution for perpetual-to-perpetual and perpetual-to-spot spread trades. Institutional clients can also execute block trades of Kalshi contracts through its RFQ platform using participating OTC liquidity providers. Talos plans to expand its trading software to brokers and trading platforms later this year, enabling them to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to their clients upon authorization, and to launch a unified prediction market data feed that standardizes events, trades, order books, open interest, and implied probabilities across multiple platforms. A CoinGecko report shows that the prediction market recorded a notional trading volume of $113.8 billion in Q2, a 48.7% quarter-over-quarter increase; notional trading volume in June reached $52.8 billion, setting a new monthly record. Kalshi's market share rose from 42.4% in Q1 to 58.9%, while Polymarket's fell from 35.8% to 30.2%.