News Heat Trend
Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
SpaceX IPO Expectations Heat Up: SPCX Contract on Hyperliquid Bounces Back, Pointing to a $2.4 Trillion Valuation
According to Odaily, the crypto derivatives contract SPCX, linked to a potential SpaceX IPO, has seen a rebound on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, reigniting market expectations for the space company founded by Elon Musk's first day of trading.Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to approximately $176 to $183 on Friday, recovering from a dip to around $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant bounce from the roughly $157 level observed when market attention peaked on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of about $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key benchmark for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of listing.At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a first-day premium of about 36% for SpaceX. Earlier, in May, the contract surged to $216, corresponding to a roughly 60% premium over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the implied market premium narrowed to about 16%.Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a rebound in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that derivatives data from IG International implies a market valuation for SpaceX of approximately $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users are currently assigning a 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's listing performance. The recent rebound suggests the market is re-pricing the potential for a higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)
Polymarket now offers a prediction range for the opening price of SpaceX on its first day of listing
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for the opening price range of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.SpaceX is scheduled to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 (U.S. time). According to its compliance filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official IPO price has been set at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, institutional oversubscription orders are reportedly exceeding $10 billion, fueling market expectations for a premium from the "first-day pop." However, given the high valuation multiple of 90 times price-to-sales and intense competition in the rocket launch market, the first-day opening premium may be relatively moderate. Under the event's settlement rules, the market will strictly settle based on the official opening price of SpaceX on its first trading day on the primary exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the boundary between two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement.Odaily Seer remains focused on prediction markets. See the change before the price is set.
Gate Releases May Transparency Report: TradFi Assets and Prediction Markets Drive Dual-Engine Growth
digital asset platform Gate has released its May 2026 transparency report. The report indicates that multi-asset trading and prediction markets are becoming key growth engines for the platform. As of the end of May, Gate had listed 605 CFD trading assets, covering multiple categories including stocks, indices, forex, metals, and commodities, ranking among the top globally among crypto trading platforms in terms of asset count. Additionally, Gate Stocks allows users to trade over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs from major U.S. markets using USDT, covering the main U.S. securities trading markets and liquidity networks. The platform's direct IPO first-phase project, SpaceX, saw意向 subscription amounts exceed $100 million.Meanwhile, the platform continues to deepen its presence in the prediction market sector. Gate has deeply integrated Polymarket, launching features such as smart money tracking, wallet monitoring, top holdings, profit/loss statistics, and AI analysis. As the first CEX platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate continues to strengthen its advantage as a prediction market gateway, maintaining a leading position in user participation scale, market activity, and ecosystem influence.Furthermore, Gate's flagship event, WCTC S8, successfully concluded in May, attracting over 80,000 participants and 9,500 registered teams. The cumulative total weighted trading volume for the event exceeded $50 billion, with the CFD segment alone accounting for a cumulative trading volume of over $140 billion, reflecting the strong growth momentum of traditional financial assets within crypto trading scenarios. As stablecoins, RWA, asset tokenization, and prediction markets emerge as new growth engines for the industry, Gate will continue to expand its business layout in stocks, forex, and IPOs, aiming to build a comprehensive one-stop global digital financial services platform.
Polymarket launches new prediction: "Will SpaceX open higher on its second trading day?"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
Polymarket: "SpaceX to Raise $70B-$80B in Its IPO" probability now stands at 88%, up 20% intraday
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of "SpaceX raising $70B-$80B in its IPO" on Polymarket is now at 88%, up 20% intraday.The market settles based on the total funds raised at the time of SpaceX's IPO pricing, according to data disclosed in the SEC's final prospectus. Over-allotment option shares are not counted, nor are private secondary transactions. If the amount raised falls exactly at a boundary point, it settles at the higher bracket; if the IPO is not completed by December 31, 2026, it settles at the lowest bracket.Previous news: Elon Musk's SpaceX disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday that it plans to fix the offering price at $135 per share (consistent with the price disclosed by sources) before officially launching IPO roadshow activities. SpaceX stated it plans to issue 555.6 million shares, thereby raising $75 billion.Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
Analysis: Pre-IPO Hype Spills Over into Prediction Markets, Pre-IPO Trading Becomes a New Trend
as anticipation builds for several potential major IPOs, "prediction market trading" centered around high-profile pre-IPO companies is rapidly heating up, with users betting on pre-IPO performance through prediction contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become primary channels, allowing users to engage in "yes/no" contract trading on key metrics such as valuation ranges and listing timelines. Prices are quoted in cents, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct.Given that ordinary investors cannot directly participate in equity investments in popular private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before their IPOs, prediction markets are converting related expectations into tradeable, event-driven assets.Analysts believe that as the window for potential "mega IPOs" approaches, prediction markets are leveraging public sentiment and capital attention to turn IPO narratives into short-term volatility opportunities on both on-chain and compliant trading platforms, further expanding their influence in financial speculation and information pricing. (The Information)
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
Osasuna Denies Involvement in Kalshi Relegation Prediction Rumors, Predictive Market's "Insurance-like" Mechanism Draws Regulatory Attention
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract associated with the club saw a rapid surge in trading volume, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025-2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be using "reverse betting" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in predictive market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed a bet on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed it had purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through brokerage firm Howden. Kalshi, for its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risk within a prediction market: the insurance broker bears the hedging risk, rather than the club directly engaging in transactions, describing the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.Notably, despite suffering a loss in a crucial match, Osasuna ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its rivals failed to surpass them in points.The incident has also sparked debate over the boundaries of prediction market use cases: it is evolving from a speculative tool into a real-world risk hedging instrument, potentially playing an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.Meanwhile, the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched a regulatory investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms for operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)
Polymarket now offers a prediction range for the opening price of SpaceX on its first day of listing
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for the opening price range of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.SpaceX is scheduled to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 (U.S. time). According to its compliance filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official IPO price has been set at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, institutional oversubscription orders are reportedly exceeding $10 billion, fueling market expectations for a premium from the "first-day pop." However, given the high valuation multiple of 90 times price-to-sales and intense competition in the rocket launch market, the first-day opening premium may be relatively moderate. Under the event's settlement rules, the market will strictly settle based on the official opening price of SpaceX on its first trading day on the primary exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the boundary between two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement.Odaily Seer remains focused on prediction markets. See the change before the price is set.
Polymarket Exposed for Paying Influencers at Least $350,000 to Promote Its Prediction Market, with Some Content Not Disclosing Commercial Partnerships
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, was reportedly found to have paid content creators at least $350,000 through his personal PayPal account between January 2025 and February 2026, to promote Polymarket and its prediction market data.Reports indicate that Modabber transferred over $2.5 million to more than 800 individuals over 14 months. According to a Politico investigation, at least 20 influencers who received payments subsequently posted approximately 490 pieces of content related to Polymarket on social media platform X, with the majority failing to clearly disclose the paid partnership.Creators involved include conservative commentator Alex LoRusso, political commentator Brian Krassenstein, and Fox News contributor Riley Gaines. The related posts often described Polymarket's odds changes as "BREAKING" news or event bellwethers, aiming to reinforce the public perception of the platform's predictive accuracy.A Polymarket spokesperson responded that collaborating with content creators is a standard marketing strategy for the company, intended to provide global users with "the most accurate, transparent, and data-driven market insights." However, the company did not address questions regarding why personal accounts were used for payments or whether the related promotions complied with disclosure requirements.The report notes that following Trump's election victory, interest in prediction markets surged, and Polymarket's trading volume grew rapidly. As the platform seeks to re-enter the U.S. market, it is expanding its brand influence through social media and opinion leaders, while also facing scrutiny over information disclosure, market influence, and regulatory compliance. (Politico)
South Korean police launch first investigation into Polymarket users for suspected illegal gambling
According to The Korea Business, South Korean police are investigating domestic users of Polymarket—the world’s largest prediction market platform—for alleged violations of Article 246 of the Criminal Act (gambling offenses), which carries a maximum fine of KRW 10 million. This investigation—led by the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency upon delegation from the National Police Agency—is the first criminal probe targeting Polymarket users in South Korea, covering users nationwide. It is reported that South Korean users placed bets on the platform using USD-pegged stablecoins, with no restrictions imposed by the platform; for instance, the June 3 local elections alone attracted hundreds of billions of won in betting volume.
First bet yields $9.06 million profit; new wallet bets on Spain failing to win on Polymarket
Odaily News As monitored by on-chain analyst Ember, in the early hours of this morning, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a surprising draw. A new wallet spent $4.22 million on Polymarket betting that Spain would not win the match, and that Cape Verde would win under a -2.5 handicap. Ultimately, $4.22 million turned into $13.28 million, netting a profit of $9.06 million.
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Japan’s Bitbank Warns That Transactions Related to Polymarket May Trigger Account Restrictions
According to Cointelegraph, Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank announced that it may restrict or suspend accounts found to have deposits or withdrawals linked to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. Bitbank stated that affected accounts may be unable to log in and will be restricted from depositing, withdrawing, and trading.
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
SPCX one hour before opening: Binance futures open interest stands at $395 million, Kraken IPO total subscriptions reach $888 million
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, there is 1 hour left before SPCX opens. Currently, Binance's futures open interest stands at $395 million, while Hyperliquid's futures open interest is $273 million. The total subscriptions for Kraken's IPO amount to $888 million, with $557 million subscribed via Binance Wallet. On Polymarket, the trading volume for bets on SPCX's market cap at closing exceeds $13 million.
SpaceX IPO Expectations Heat Up: SPCX Contract on Hyperliquid Bounces Back, Pointing to a $2.4 Trillion Valuation
According to Odaily, the crypto derivatives contract SPCX, linked to a potential SpaceX IPO, has seen a rebound on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, reigniting market expectations for the space company founded by Elon Musk's first day of trading.Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to approximately $176 to $183 on Friday, recovering from a dip to around $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant bounce from the roughly $157 level observed when market attention peaked on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of about $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key benchmark for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of listing.At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a first-day premium of about 36% for SpaceX. Earlier, in May, the contract surged to $216, corresponding to a roughly 60% premium over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the implied market premium narrowed to about 16%.Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a rebound in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that derivatives data from IG International implies a market valuation for SpaceX of approximately $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users are currently assigning a 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's listing performance. The recent rebound suggests the market is re-pricing the potential for a higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)
A smart money address purchased $1.1 million on Sweden defeating Tunisia in the World Cup group stage
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event for "2026 World Cup Group F Round 1: Sweden vs. Tunisia," a smart money address (0x8cb4ca5af7d9361322340bb307a828d288c91057) that has accumulated over $1 million in profit purchased more than $1.1 million on Sweden defeating Tunisia, with an average entry price of 51.7¢ and a position of 2,139,999.7 shares.The match between Sweden and Tunisia began today at 10:00. Sweden holds an advantage in overall strength and attacking power. The first half has concluded with Sweden leading Tunisia 2:1.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
Polymarket launches "Zcash Orchard Privacy Pool Confirmed Vulnerable Exploit"
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event titled "Was Zcash's Orchard privacy pool confirmed to have been exploited?"On June 4, Zcash's core development team revealed that they had deployed an emergency network upgrade to fix a critical cryptographic vulnerability in the Orchard privacy pool. This flaw could have potentially allowed a malicious attacker to arbitrarily forge unlimited amounts of ZEC. Due to the vulnerability's characteristic that "it is impossible to cryptographically prove whether it was exploited in the past," independent support organization Shielded Labs subsequently proposed on June 5 to deploy a new privacy pool during the NU7 upgrade at the end of July. They also suggested implementing strict "Turnstile-accounting" audits for tokens exiting Orchard to investigate whether any forged tokens exist. According to the settlement rules for this prediction event, if before December 31, 2026, official sources or mainstream credible media confirm that the vulnerability was effectively exploited on the mainnet before being patched, the event will settle as YES.Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket: "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" probability rises to 53%, up 36% in 24H
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 53%, a 24-hour increase of 36%.Market rules: If between 17:35 on November 24, 2025, and 23:59 on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the lowest price (Low) of any 1-minute candlestick of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair reaches or falls below the price stated in the title, this market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Settlement is based solely on the 1-minute candlestick data of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.In previous news, the privacy coin Zcash disclosed and fixed a critical security vulnerability that could have been exploited by malicious miners to transfer over 25,000 ZEC (approximately $6.5 million) from the deprecated Sprout privacy pool. Officials stated that the vulnerability had existed since July 2020 but was not actually exploited, and user funds remained safe at all times. The development team has released version v6.12.0 to complete the fix, and major mining pools have already upgraded their deployments.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
New address purchases $7,500 on Biden's son becoming 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, probability surges 3x
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that a new address on Polymarket bought $7,500 on Hunter Biden becoming the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, with an average purchase price of 0.7¢.Possibly influenced by this, multiple wallets followed suit with purchases, driving the probability from 0.7% up to the current 2.9%.It is reported that Hunter Biden is the second son of Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, and his only surviving son. Related controversies have persisted throughout Biden's entire presidency, becoming a core weapon for Republicans to attack the Biden administration over "corruption" and "cronyism."Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket: ZachXBT Reports Security Incident Related to Internal Operational Wallet Private Key Leakage; User Funds and Market Settlement Secure
Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.
ZachXBT: Polymarket’s UMA CTF Adapter contract疑似 attacked, over $520,000 stolen
According to on-chain investigator ZachXBT, Polymarket’s UMA CTF adapter on the Polygon network appears to have been attacked, resulting in losses exceeding $520,000 so far.
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Japan’s Bitbank Warns That Transactions Related to Polymarket May Trigger Account Restrictions
According to Cointelegraph, Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank announced that it may restrict or suspend accounts found to have deposits or withdrawals linked to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. Bitbank stated that affected accounts may be unable to log in and will be restricted from depositing, withdrawing, and trading.
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
Bernstein: 2026 World Cup Expected to Drive Up to $10 Billion in Trading Volume for Prediction Markets
investment firm Bernstein has released a report indicating that the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in North America, is expected to drive up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital.Bernstein analysts pointed out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercially launch its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera. Institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, on the Myriad platform, Spain and France have the highest odds of winning. (Decrypt)
Gate Releases May Transparency Report: TradFi Assets and Prediction Markets Drive Dual-Engine Growth
digital asset platform Gate has released its May 2026 transparency report. The report indicates that multi-asset trading and prediction markets are becoming key growth engines for the platform. As of the end of May, Gate had listed 605 CFD trading assets, covering multiple categories including stocks, indices, forex, metals, and commodities, ranking among the top globally among crypto trading platforms in terms of asset count. Additionally, Gate Stocks allows users to trade over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs from major U.S. markets using USDT, covering the main U.S. securities trading markets and liquidity networks. The platform's direct IPO first-phase project, SpaceX, saw意向 subscription amounts exceed $100 million.Meanwhile, the platform continues to deepen its presence in the prediction market sector. Gate has deeply integrated Polymarket, launching features such as smart money tracking, wallet monitoring, top holdings, profit/loss statistics, and AI analysis. As the first CEX platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate continues to strengthen its advantage as a prediction market gateway, maintaining a leading position in user participation scale, market activity, and ecosystem influence.Furthermore, Gate's flagship event, WCTC S8, successfully concluded in May, attracting over 80,000 participants and 9,500 registered teams. The cumulative total weighted trading volume for the event exceeded $50 billion, with the CFD segment alone accounting for a cumulative trading volume of over $140 billion, reflecting the strong growth momentum of traditional financial assets within crypto trading scenarios. As stablecoins, RWA, asset tokenization, and prediction markets emerge as new growth engines for the industry, Gate will continue to expand its business layout in stocks, forex, and IPOs, aiming to build a comprehensive one-stop global digital financial services platform.
Kalshi perpetual contract volume manipulation? Kalshi crypto head's remarks draw questions from Polymarket team members
CNBC recently covered Kalshi Perpetual Contracts, noting that trading volume surpassed $1 billion within the first week of launch. Kalshi's crypto division head John Wang subsequently posted on X: "Kalshi Perps hit $1 billion in trading volume in the first week, and the product hasn't even been publicly released yet." He also pointed out that it took prediction markets 3.5 years to reach a similar volume scale. Polymarket team member Mustafa Aljadery appeared in the comments section to congratulate, while also inquiring about the Perpetual Contracts' OI (open interest) data, insinuating that Kalshi's trading volume might have been manipulated.Additionally, many community members in the comments expressed doubts about this data, emphasizing that it could be volume generated from zero-fee or leveraged trading. Some even pointed out that Kalshi's OI data stood at only around $4.5 million.
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First bet yields $9.06 million profit; new wallet bets on Spain failing to win on Polymarket
Odaily News As monitored by on-chain analyst Ember, in the early hours of this morning, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a surprising draw. A new wallet spent $4.22 million on Polymarket betting that Spain would not win the match, and that Cape Verde would win under a -2.5 handicap. Ultimately, $4.22 million turned into $13.28 million, netting a profit of $9.06 million.
Polymarket probability of "Trump agrees to ease Iran oil sanctions before end of June" rises to 87%, up 12% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Trump agrees to ease Iran oil sanctions before the end of June" has risen to 87%, up 12% in 24 hours.The event contract rules are as follows: If the United States agrees to cancel, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iran's oil exports before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "No." Sanctions restricting Iran's oil exports refer to US measures that prohibit or restrict the production, sale, transportation, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). The US is deemed to have agreed to cancel, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if the following conditions are met:1. Trump or another authorized representative of the US government publicly announces that the US has finally agreed to cancel, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil;2. The cancellation, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions has been incorporated into a formally concluded treaty or agreement between the US and Iran, including treaties or agreements reached through signing or other formal means.Trump posted on social media today: "An agreement with Iran has been reached. Congratulations, everyone! I hereby fully authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and also authorize the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade against Iran. Ships of the world, set sail. Let the oil flow!"Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before the price is set.
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Japan’s Bitbank Warns That Transactions Related to Polymarket May Trigger Account Restrictions
According to Cointelegraph, Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank announced that it may restrict or suspend accounts found to have deposits or withdrawals linked to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. Bitbank stated that affected accounts may be unable to log in and will be restricted from depositing, withdrawing, and trading.
A smart money address purchased $1.1 million on Sweden defeating Tunisia in the World Cup group stage
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event for "2026 World Cup Group F Round 1: Sweden vs. Tunisia," a smart money address (0x8cb4ca5af7d9361322340bb307a828d288c91057) that has accumulated over $1 million in profit purchased more than $1.1 million on Sweden defeating Tunisia, with an average entry price of 51.7¢ and a position of 2,139,999.7 shares.The match between Sweden and Tunisia began today at 10:00. Sweden holds an advantage in overall strength and attacking power. The first half has concluded with Sweden leading Tunisia 2:1.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
or driven by the start of the World Cup, Polymarket's 24-hour revenue surpassed Hyperliquid, reaching $1.18 million
According to DefiLlama data, Polymarket's 24-hour revenue reached $1.18 million, surpassing Hyperliquid's $814,944.