News Heat Trend
Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
Polymarket's "Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch" probability rises to 74%, up 60% in 24 hours
Monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch" probability has risen to 74%, up 60% in 24 hours.If Predict.fun's governance token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $800 million one day after its launch, this prediction event will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable to be considered officially launched.FDV will be calculated based on the total token supply multiplied by the token price."One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the day following the token's launch.This prediction event will use the most liquid price source as the basis for resolution.If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) fails to launch a token before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, this prediction event will resolve to "No".
Polymarket "Papertrade FDV above $100 million one day after launch" odds drop to 45%, down 40% in 24 hours
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Papertrade FDV above $100 million one day after launch" odds have dropped to 45%, down 40% in 24 hours.If Papertrade's token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above the specified amount one day after launch, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No."Only official tokens formally issued by Papertrade after the creation of this market are eligible. Stablecoins, meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens do not count.A token must be publicly tradable to be considered officially launched.FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price."One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the day following the token's launch.The market will use the most liquid available price source as the basis for settlement.If Papertrade fails to issue a token before 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to "No."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
Polymarket's "Papertrade FDV above $100 million one day after launch" probability rises to 80%, up 27% in 24 hours
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Papertrade FDV above $100 million one day after launch" probability has risen to 80%, up 27% in 24 hours.If Papertrade's token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above the specified threshold one day after launch, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No."Only official tokens formally issued by Papertrade after the creation of this market are eligible. Stablecoins, meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens do not qualify.The token must be publicly tradable to be considered officially launched.FDV is calculated as the token's total supply multiplied by the token price."One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the day following the token's launch.The market will use the most liquid available price source as the basis for resolution.If Papertrade fails to issue a token before 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to "No."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the advantage.
Bloomberg: Polymarket CEO Again Hints at Possible Launch of Platform Token
According to Bloomberg, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan recently hinted that the platform may release an announcement, sparking widespread market speculation over the potential launch of a cryptocurrency token. Previously, at the TOKEN2049 Singapore conference, Coplan noted that the company is exploring an on-chain asset linked to the platform’s economic system with practical programmable utility, though no specific token issuance plan was announced. At present, crypto startups face a choice between traditional equity financing and token offerings as they seek both capital and regulatory stability.
Ignas: There Are Currently Fewer Than 20 Quality Tokens, Looking Forward to Polymarket Launching a TGE
Odaily reports: DeFi researcher Ignas posted on X that there are currently too few quality tokens in the market that truly have strong revenue support—only about 20 projects have holders generating daily revenue of over $50,000. However, this may also further concentrate capital and market attention toward a small number of projects. For this reason, he looks forward to more projects that have already generated actual revenue launching token generation events (TGEs), and hopes Polymarket will also adopt a TGE model.Ignas added that after further considering valuation, token unlocks, and revenue sustainability, the pool of viable targets will shrink even further. Although some tokens may appear attractive, their market cap to fully diluted valuation (MC/FDV) ratios are not ideal. As a result, investors need to bet that demand growth will outpace the supply growth brought by token unlocks, making some tokens more suitable for trading than for long-term holding.Ignas believes that for most tokens, what investors are still trading is narrative and market sentiment, and they need to trust that project teams will deliver on their promises. With several DAOs having recently dissolved, the so-called "decentralized" accountability mechanisms are also not sufficient.
Analyst: Variational's $1.5B FDV valuation is overly optimistic, conservative scenario could put it at just $167M
Odaily News: Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens posted on X that Polymarket's current FDV valuation of approximately $1.5 billion for Variational is somewhat overly optimistic. This pricing directly applies Hyperliquid and Lighter-level valuation-to-revenue multiples to a platform that still relies on points subsidies. By comparison, the median first-day "FDV / annualized revenue" ratio for recently launched Perp DEX tokens is only 6.3x (Variational is currently around 57x), and within the first month after TGE, trading volume typically drops sharply by a median of 54%.Shaunda added that if conservative assumptions based on historical precedents are adopted (using the median first-day "FDV/annualized revenue" ratio of 6.3x), Variational's fair valuation would be only $167 million, corresponding to a points price of $4.8–$5.4. Even using the highest recent ratio precedent (Lighter's approximately 21.1x), its valuation would still only be about $558 million, corresponding to a points price of $16–$18.However, Shaunda also explained: "To be clear, given that current market risk appetite is clearly in a Risk-on state, we do not believe Variational's valuation at TGE will fall to the extremely conservative range mentioned above. These historical multiples are listed to illustrate that current pre-market OTC pricing may be overly optimistic."
Polymarket US Platform Launches 5-Minute Cryptocurrency Prediction Contracts Covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP
According to CoinDesk, prediction market platform Polymarket launched five-minute cryptocurrency price prediction contracts on Oct. 28 on a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Users can wager on whether the cryptocurrency’s price at the end of the five-minute cycle will be higher or lower than the starting price; correct predictions pay out $1 per contract, while incorrect ones receive no payout.
Polymarket investigates suspicious trades in Israeli election
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Polymarket is investigating a series of precisely timed and highly profitable trades during this week's Israeli election. This is the latest incident to raise external concerns, highlighting the potential risk of insider trading on prediction markets. According to an analysis of Polymarket's trading ledger, shortly before polling stations closed on Tuesday, hundreds of new accounts bet that Netanyahu and his Likud party would defeat their rivals. These trades quickly began to profit. After some exit polls showed that Netanyahu's party won more seats than early reports suggested, some of these accounts had already cashed out a combined total of more than $100,000. (Bloomberg)
Australian Regulator: Polymarket Already Blocked, No Prediction Market Operator Has Applied for a License
Odaily reports: Sarah Court, Chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), said at a parliamentary hearing on Thursday that the agency has not yet received any applications from prediction market operators. She noted that such platforms may face gambling regulation in Australia rather than financial market regulation, and that any operating license application would face strict scrutiny.Court said that the trading mechanism of prediction markets is similar to binary options, which Australia has already banned, featuring an all-or-nothing outcome, and that the underlying assets are often unrelated to investments or financial markets. She also noted that although Australian users can directly access relevant overseas platforms, they are not protected by local financial regulation and have difficulty obtaining measures such as dispute resolution and client fund protection.In August of this year, the Australian Communications and Media Authority required internet service providers to block the Polymarket website and classified it as an illegal online gambling site. (Bloomberg)
US CFTC Resumes Investigation into Polymarket to Review Whether It Violated 2022 Settlement Agreement
Reuters reports that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating whether prediction market platform Polymarket violated the 2022 settlement agreement by failing to effectively block US users from accessing its overseas platform. The investigation involves the user geolocation identification mechanism, advertising campaigns within the United States, as well as the user registration process and customer protection measures for its US platform.
Polymarket has investigated dozens of cases involving trading related to the U.S. midterm elections, with at least two referred to the CFTC
Odaily report: Shana Bautista, Polymarket's Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations, stated that Polymarket has launched investigations into dozens of trades involving the U.S. midterm elections, focusing on identifying potential insider trading and market manipulation. A person familiar with the investigations, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that at least two of the cases have been referred to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Bautista said Polymarket has assembled a 16-person investigations team and deployed a new election trading monitoring system ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The system integrates data from social media, the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC), crypto companies, banking partners, and other public information sources, generating hundreds of anomalous trading alerts each day. She noted that the investigations team can identify potential manipulation through behavioral patterns such as concentrated trading across multiple accounts within a short period and different wallets using the same device ID. (U.S. National Public Radio)
NBA Signs Regulatory Agreement with CFTC, Kalshi and Polymarket Become Preferred Prediction Market Platforms
Odaily reports: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Basketball Association (NBA) to share information and establish communication mechanisms to maintain fair trading in prediction markets and prevent insider trading and market manipulation. The NBA announced that Kalshi and Polymarket will become its preferred prediction market platforms. The NBA is the third U.S. professional sports league to sign a similar agreement with the CFTC, following the National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB), which have already established cooperation with the CFTC.
Polymarket Hacked: Over 700 Users Affected, Losses Approximately $3.46 Million
According to monitoring by Bubblemaps, the hack of a third-party service provider for Polymarket has resulted in the theft of assets belonging to over 700 users, totaling approximately $3.46 million. Of this amount, roughly $2.7 million has been converted to POL and transferred out, while approximately $0.75 million remains in Polymarket.
Polymarket suspected of frontend attack, trading switched to cancel-only mode
According to Decrypt, Polymarket has switched trading to cancel-only mode and paused relay operations due to a security incident, with multiple users reporting unauthorized asset transfers. The suspected attacker's address holds approximately $2.65 million in POL.
Sports prediction trader swisstony becomes Polymarket's most profitable account with approximately $12.25 million in profits
Odaily reports: The sports prediction account pseudonymously known as swisstony has profited approximately $12.25 million since April 2026, becoming the most profitable account on Polymarket. The statistics cover 170 million predictions across roughly 1.2 million retail accounts. swisstony has opened positions approximately 184,000 times, covering more than 113,000 markets, with cumulative investments of about $657 million; since June, the account has made at least one prediction nearly every hour for 26 consecutive days.
CoinShares: Digital asset investment products recorded $434 million in outflows this week
According to CoinShares' market report, the US September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.6% market expectation. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% during the month, accounting for roughly half of the overall increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. In the same period, US September retail sales increased 0.8% month-over-month, beating the ~0.3% forecast, while August data was revised up to 1.3%. However, retail sales excluding gasoline only grew by 0.2%, down from 1.0% in August. The report pointed out that inflation remains elevated and economic demand continues to show resilience, driving a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy that weighed on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Data showed that market sentiment notably weakened following the CPI release, with global digital asset investment products recording $434 million in outflows so far this week. Regarding interest rate expectations, as of October 15, Polymarket data indicated a roughly 75% probability that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at its October meeting and about a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Following the CPI release, futures markets shifted markedly toward a hawkish stance, with expectations of another rate hike within the year rising significantly.
Polymarket's "StandX will issue a token before the end of 2026" probability drops to 3%, a 58% decline in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "StandX will issue a token before the end of 2026" probability has dropped to 3%, a 58% decline in 24 hours.If StandX officially launches a token before 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title, the prediction market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No."Only tokens officially issued by StandX qualify; stablecoins, meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens do not count.The token must have been publicly launched and be actually tradable; merely publishing an announcement does not meet the resolution criteria.Resolution is primarily based on StandX official information, with reference to consensus reports from credible media.Previous news: StandX announced it will not issue a token, and perpetual contracts will enter reduce-only mode starting October 20.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
Hyperliquid Whale Holds $32.36M Bitcoin Short Position, 13x Leverage, Entry Price $82,863
Odaily News — A whale trader on Hyperliquid holds a short position of 391.48 BTC, valued at $32.36 million, with an average entry price of $82,863.10. The account has $7.19 million in equity, uses cross margin with 13x leverage, and has a liquidation price of $99,801.20.According to Hyperbot data, the account has executed a total of 4,726 trades, with perpetual contract profits of $952,200 over the past week and a maximum drawdown of 11.03%. As of the time of disclosure, the short position is profitable by approximately $75,500, with funding fees of $64,249.75.This position emerged on the one-year anniversary of the massive crypto market liquidation event on October 10, 2025. Hyperliquid's Bitcoin market open interest is approximately 38,040 BTC, with this account's position accounting for about 1% of it.Coinglass data shows that if Bitcoin rises to $85,000, approximately $3.3 billion in short positions would face liquidation. Polymarket data indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before December 31, 2026, is 27.5%. On October 9, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $21.13 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way. (Bitcoin.com News)
Trust Wallet: Security Hardening Initiated After Binance Attack, with Focus on AI-Driven Attack Risks
Odaily reports: Trust Wallet stated that although the recent attacks on Polymarket and Binance did not affect Trust Wallet itself, the team conducted a comprehensive review of security defense measures this morning, including improving standard operating procedures (SOPs) and formulating a code hardening plan to address the attack risks brought by the development of AI technology. Trust Wallet said it will take every security incident in the industry seriously and learn from them. Specific measures will not be disclosed for now, but related reports may be published in the future, and the team plans to collaborate with top crypto security firms and other wallets. The team emphasized that most security hardening efforts will not be directly visible in the user experience, but are crucial for self-custodial wallets, and that security should be the top priority for all market participants at present.
GoPlus: Approximately $2.71 million in Polymarket user assets stolen, attack source points to third-party monitoring service supply chain compromise
A vulnerability analysis published by the GoPlus Chinese community reported that on October 29 (UTC), a user asset theft incident occurred on the Polymarket international site. The RUM script of the third-party performance monitoring provider DebugBear was compromised via a supply chain attack, with malicious code injected into user pages to abuse trading and signing permissions for asset transfers.
No password or mnemonic required: Polymarket paused trading for about an hour after an attack
Odaily reports: According to monitoring by Bitcoin News, the attacker allegedly exploited users' still-active sessions to directly sell users' positions and withdraw funds through the Polymarket system. The attack reportedly originated from the compromise of a DebugBear website performance monitoring script, which was replaced with malicious code that users' browsers treated as trusted code. Polymarket resumed trading after about an hour and said it would compensate affected users. The incident has been referred to UK law enforcement.
Polymarket Hacked: Over 700 Users Affected, Losses Approximately $3.46 Million
According to monitoring by Bubblemaps, the hack of a third-party service provider for Polymarket has resulted in the theft of assets belonging to over 700 users, totaling approximately $3.46 million. Of this amount, roughly $2.7 million has been converted to POL and transferred out, while approximately $0.75 million remains in Polymarket.
Polymarket confirms third-party service provider was breached, stating it will fully compensate affected users.
According to CoinDesk, Polymarket officially confirmed that one of its third-party service providers was compromised, resulting in the theft of user assets on its international platform. The issue has been resolved and handed over to law enforcement authorities. Affected users will receive full compensation, and trading on the platform remains suspended.
Polymarket suspected of frontend attack, trading switched to cancel-only mode
According to Decrypt, Polymarket has switched trading to cancel-only mode and paused relay operations due to a security incident, with multiple users reporting unauthorized asset transfers. The suspected attacker's address holds approximately $2.65 million in POL.
Polymarket Expands 15-Minute Markets to Gold and Silver
Chainlink announced that Polymarket is deepening their collaboration, expanding 15-minute markets beyond crypto assets, with gold and silver markets now live, and plans to cover more commodities, stocks, and foreign exchange in the future.
Trust Wallet: Security Hardening Initiated After Binance Attack, with Focus on AI-Driven Attack Risks
Odaily reports: Trust Wallet stated that although the recent attacks on Polymarket and Binance did not affect Trust Wallet itself, the team conducted a comprehensive review of security defense measures this morning, including improving standard operating procedures (SOPs) and formulating a code hardening plan to address the attack risks brought by the development of AI technology. Trust Wallet said it will take every security incident in the industry seriously and learn from them. Specific measures will not be disclosed for now, but related reports may be published in the future, and the team plans to collaborate with top crypto security firms and other wallets. The team emphasized that most security hardening efforts will not be directly visible in the user experience, but are crucial for self-custodial wallets, and that security should be the top priority for all market participants at present.
GoPlus: Approximately $2.71 million in Polymarket user assets stolen, attack source points to third-party monitoring service supply chain compromise
A vulnerability analysis published by the GoPlus Chinese community reported that on October 29 (UTC), a user asset theft incident occurred on the Polymarket international site. The RUM script of the third-party performance monitoring provider DebugBear was compromised via a supply chain attack, with malicious code injected into user pages to abuse trading and signing permissions for asset transfers.
Polymarket trading fully restored, will fully compensate affected traders
Polymarket announced that trading has now been fully restored and that all affected traders will be fully compensated.
Polymarket has investigated dozens of cases involving trading related to the U.S. midterm elections, with at least two referred to the CFTC
Odaily report: Shana Bautista, Polymarket's Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations, stated that Polymarket has launched investigations into dozens of trades involving the U.S. midterm elections, focusing on identifying potential insider trading and market manipulation. A person familiar with the investigations, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that at least two of the cases have been referred to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Bautista said Polymarket has assembled a 16-person investigations team and deployed a new election trading monitoring system ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The system integrates data from social media, the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC), crypto companies, banking partners, and other public information sources, generating hundreds of anomalous trading alerts each day. She noted that the investigations team can identify potential manipulation through behavioral patterns such as concentrated trading across multiple accounts within a short period and different wallets using the same device ID. (U.S. National Public Radio)
Polymarket trading volume exceeds $55 million, Eisenkot has a 55% chance of winning
a Polymarket contract on Israel's prime ministerial election has surpassed $55 million in trading volume, with Gadi Eisenkot at a 55% probability of winning and Benjamin Netanyahu at 29%. Eisenkot, a former Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces and current leader of the Yashar party, is the subject of a contract on who will become prime minister following the parliamentary election on October 27, 2026.Traditional polling shows Eisenkot's bloc leading Netanyahu's bloc by 6 seats, but no single party currently holds a majority. The Israel Democracy Institute has called on the Central Elections Committee to treat prediction market odds as polling and to restrict the publication of related results before elections. (Bitcoin.com News)
Related news
Smart money buys nearly $170,000 on HLE defeating G2 in League of Legends S16 Swiss Stage
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "League of Legends S16 Swiss Stage HLE vs. G2" prediction event, a smart money address (0x57a85952044f2c8e4d31b475aab6987d2f98ebc2) with over $1.44 million in profits purchased $100,000 on HLE defeating G2 at an average entry price of 78¢, with an unrealized profit of $600. In addition, the address purchased nearly $70,000 on HLE winning with a 1.5 game handicap against G2 at an average entry price of 53¢, with an unrealized profit of $600. At around 6:30 AM today, the 2026 League of Legends S16 Swiss Stage will feature G2 versus HLE in a BO3 format.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the advantage.
Polymarket Expands 15-Minute Markets to Gold and Silver
Chainlink announced that Polymarket is deepening their collaboration, expanding 15-minute markets beyond crypto assets, with gold and silver markets now live, and plans to cover more commodities, stocks, and foreign exchange in the future.
Trust Wallet: Security Hardening Initiated After Binance Attack, with Focus on AI-Driven Attack Risks
Odaily reports: Trust Wallet stated that although the recent attacks on Polymarket and Binance did not affect Trust Wallet itself, the team conducted a comprehensive review of security defense measures this morning, including improving standard operating procedures (SOPs) and formulating a code hardening plan to address the attack risks brought by the development of AI technology. Trust Wallet said it will take every security incident in the industry seriously and learn from them. Specific measures will not be disclosed for now, but related reports may be published in the future, and the team plans to collaborate with top crypto security firms and other wallets. The team emphasized that most security hardening efforts will not be directly visible in the user experience, but are crucial for self-custodial wallets, and that security should be the top priority for all market participants at present.
Partnerships between prediction market platforms and media outlets are intensifying, with Kalshi and Polymarket ramping up activity ahead of the midterm elections.
According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, prediction markets are becoming a growing revenue stream for media companies. News organizations such as CNN, CBS News, Dow Jones, and CNBC have entered into commercial partnerships with prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket to supplement traditional news coverage. Some outlets have already begun citing market trading data in their reporting, displaying win probability forecasts for the control of the House of Representatives and the highly competitive Texas Senate race.
1kX Report: Blockchain Revenue Expected to Drop 28% Year-on-Year in 2026, Real Economy Revenue Surpasses Infrastructure for the First Time
The report is based on on-chain data from 2,621 protocols and financial reports from 104 listed companies, annualizing data from January to September 2026. DeFi and financial business accounted for approximately $65 billion, representing 66%. In the third quarter, revenue from the real economy reached about $5.3 billion, surpassing blockchain infrastructure revenue of approximately $5.1 billion for the first time. Prediction market fees exceeded $1.5 billion, roughly 19 times that of the same period last year, with the majority concentrated in Kalshi and Polymarket.
On Polymarket, the probability of "HYPE will rise to $100 by the end of 2026" has risen to 65%, up 45% in 24 hours
Monitoring by PPP prediction market tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "HYPE will rise to $100 by the end of 2026" has risen to 65%, up 45% in 24 hours.If during the period from 16:00 US Eastern Time on November 24, 2025 to 23:59 on December 31, 2026, the final "High" price of any 1-minute candle on Binance's Hyperliquid (HYPEUSDT) trading pair reaches or exceeds $100, the event will immediately settle as "Yes."Otherwise, the event will settle as "No."The settlement data for this event is based solely on the price of Binance's HYPEUSDT perpetual contract trading pair. Please note that the outcome of this event depends entirely on the high price data of Binance's HYPEUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or spot markets will not be used as the basis for settlement.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.