News Heat Trend
Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
Kalshi seeks to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, with 30-day trading volume reaching $14.1 billion
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Kalshi is seeking to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, doubling its $22 billion valuation from six months ago. The platform was approved as a designated contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021.As of September 4, Kalshi's trading volume over the past 30 days reached $14.1 billion, while Polymarket's stood at $3.1 billion, with Kalshi accounting for approximately 82% of their combined trading volume. More than 80% of Kalshi's trading volume comes from sports events. (Bitcoin.com News)
Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF, Allocating 15% of Positions to Kalshi and Polymarket Private Assets
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
Polymarket Plans to Raise $1 Billion at a $21 Billion Post-Money Valuation, Led by 1789 Capital
According to Bloomberg, venture capital firm 1789 Capital is leading a new funding round for prediction market platform Polymarket, with the round reaching a size of $1 billion and a post-money valuation of $21 billion. 1789 Capital plans to contribute approximately $300 million.
EntropyIO completes $14 million funding round with $40 million in HYPE staking support
EntropyIO announced the completion of a $14 million funding round, led by Ribbit Capital, along with $40 million in HYPE staking support. The first batch of markets has gone live on Hyperliquid.EntropyIO stated that it has launched the first liquid Anthropic trading market and plans to further expand into assets such as Pre-IPO startups, computing resources, public companies, and global indices to enable around-the-clock trading.Team members come from Citadel Securities, Optiver, Polymarket, and Millennium, and have developed a liquidity-weighted oracle that dynamically adjusts external oracle price weights based on executable market depth, aiming to improve price discovery and liquidity for new asset classes.
ARK Invest Exec Suggests Hyperliquid Acquire Gemini to Position as Compliant HIP-3/4 Deployer in the U.S.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at investment firm ARK Invest, stated that Hyperliquid is in discussions with the CFTC and SEC to facilitate the offering of perpetual futures on its public chain by U.S.-regulated companies. He suggested that Hyperliquid acquire Gemini to position it as a U.S.-regulated HIP-3/4 deployer. He noted that Gemini's current market value is approximately $450 million, representing a decline of over 85% from its $3.3 billion valuation at the time of its 2025 IPO. Hyperliquid could obtain Gemini's entire U.S. regulatory infrastructure—including the NYDFS Trust Charter, DCM, DCO, FCM, MTLs, and Broker-dealer—for approximately $450 million.He further proposed that Hyperliquid could use approximately 7.9 million HYPE tokens from its community reserve, valued at around $550 million at $70 per token, to complete the acquisition at a premium of roughly 20% over Gemini's current market value. Following the transaction, Gemini would handle KYC, custody, fiat on/off ramps, brokerage, clearing, and compliance for the U.S. market, while Hyperliquid L1 would provide the underlying market infrastructure, liquidity, and on-chain settlement. He cited Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX as a similar precedent for re-entering the U.S. market, and stated that the core of this potential deal is not acquiring an exchange, but rather securing the regulatory bridge for HIP-3/4 to enter the U.S. market.
NYSE Parent Intercontinental Exchange Weighs Participation in Polymarket's New Funding Round
According to Bloomberg, Jeff Sprecher, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, stated that the company will monitor the new funding round for prediction market platform Polymarket and consider participating if it helps facilitate the round. Previously, ICE had invested over $1.6 billion in Polymarket.
Sports betting company Underdog sues Connecticut, seeking to block sports prediction market enforcement
According to The Block, sports betting company Underdog has filed a lawsuit in federal court against Connecticut state officials seeking to prevent the state from classifying its sports event contracts as illegal gambling. Underdog argues that it operates as a federally regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) holds "exclusive jurisdiction" over DCMs, meaning Connecticut's enforcement action conflicts with the framework of the Commodity Exchange Act. Previously, Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease and desist orders to nine prediction market platforms, including Underdog, Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood. Earlier this month, Underdog also filed separate lawsuits in five states: Ohio, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Washington. Currently, more than twelve states have taken enforcement actions or filed lawsuits against prediction market platforms.
Moonrock Founder: Even if Clarity Is Rejected, the SEC Will Introduce Similarly Strong Pro-Crypto Policies
Odaily News: Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic posted on X, stating: "The Senate vote on the Clarity Act is expected to take place in about 10 hours. Democrats have already rejected the Republican-drafted bill on the pretext of so-called 'ethics concerns' (eThIcS cOncErNs); the predicted odds on Polymarket have collapsed, and the market has fully priced in expectations of failure. Regardless of the outcome, however, I am very much looking forward to this vote. It means we can finally turn the page and shift our energy to far more important matters. If the bill fails to pass, we will instead get equally strong pro-crypto regulatory policy from the SEC; and if even that doesn't happen, then the responsibility for watching the U.S. hand over its leadership in frontier finance and sit idly by as the world's most dynamic companies move offshore will rest entirely on the Democrats. Politics is tiresome, but America is not so foolish as to let that situation happen. So what must come will come, and we will ultimately prevail."
Jiang Zhuoer: Uncertainty Surrounds Concessions on Key Provisions of U.S. Clarity Act, Prospects for September 16 Procedural Vote Unclear
According to an analysis by Jiangzhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of Litecoin Pool, after Republicans released a new draft of the Clarify Act claiming concessions on 80% of the disputed provisions, Polymarket's passage probability rose accordingly from 14% to 28%. Upon closer inspection, however, the actual concession rate is around 60%, with only partial compromises made on key provisions. Under the ethics clause, the new draft expands restrictions to officials and their spouses but still excludes children and affiliated entities, a move criticized as having limited practical impact; regarding the enforcement clause, while it allows state attorneys general to sue exchanges for listing non-compliant tokens, it explicitly bars suing the Department of Justice for regulatory inaction or the President directly. Jiangzhuoer believes that Democrats lack any incentive to "hand Trump a gift" ahead of the midterm elections, making it unlikely they would endorse this "fake compromise." Consequently, the prospect of the procedural vote passing at 2:15 AM Beijing Time on September 16 is slim, and a failed vote on the Clarify Act could mark the beginning of a correction in the current BTC uptrend.
Only a 20% Chance the CLARITY Act Passes in 2026, Executive Director of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Digital Assets Signals Optimism
Bitcoin News posted on X that Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Digital Assets, appears to be sending a positive signal ahead of the Senate's upcoming vote on the CLARITY Act, saying that "today is not a good day for CLARITY Act skeptics." However, Polymarket shows only a 20% chance the bill passes in 2026.
3 Insider Trading Investigations Approved, CFTC Involves Polymarket Biden Pardon, Iran War, and Google Contracts
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously secretly approved 3 insider trading investigations into Polymarket trading, involving Biden pardon, Iran war, and Google-related event contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation in May into contracts related to the Biden pardon, after a trader had profited over $300,000 from the related market; in the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into Iran war contracts, after a group of suspicious accounts was exposed for profiting $2.4 million with a win rate of approximately 98%. In July, the CFTC further launched an investigation into Google-related Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have used non-public information about Google's 2025 search rankings to trade. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation, and Polymarket stated that it has referred the relevant matters to law enforcement and is cooperating with the investigation.
98% win rate: 19 linked Polymarket accounts made 42 bets and won 41, with cumulative profits of about $22,000
Odaily reports: A group of 19 interconnected Polymarket accounts concentrated bets over the past several months on the earnings of publicly traded companies audited by KPMG, covering 18 KPMG clients including Wells Fargo, Home Depot, DoorDash, and General Mills. The account cluster placed a total of 42 trades, of which 41 were profitable, for a win rate of 98% and cumulative profits of about $22,000. The related funds had flowed among the 19 accounts, suggesting they may have been controlled by the same person or team. U.S. law enforcement is investigating a KPMG employee suspected of using Polymarket for insider trading; the employee is being investigated for betting on whether listed companies' quarterly results would exceed market expectations. At present, it cannot yet be confirmed that the account cluster is connected to the employee, and the related analysis itself also cannot prove the existence of insider trading. KPMG said it has a zero-tolerance stance toward trading using non-public client information and has strengthened relevant monitoring.
3 Insider Trading Investigations Approved, CFTC Involves Polymarket Biden Pardon, Iran War, and Google Contracts
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously secretly approved 3 insider trading investigations into Polymarket trading, involving Biden pardon, Iran war, and Google-related event contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation in May into contracts related to the Biden pardon, after a trader had profited over $300,000 from the related market; in the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into Iran war contracts, after a group of suspicious accounts was exposed for profiting $2.4 million with a win rate of approximately 98%. In July, the CFTC further launched an investigation into Google-related Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have used non-public information about Google's 2025 search rankings to trade. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation, and Polymarket stated that it has referred the relevant matters to law enforcement and is cooperating with the investigation.
Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF, Allocating 15% of Positions to Kalshi and Polymarket Private Assets
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
Polymarket probability of "foldable iPhone US launch price above $2,300" drops to 15%, down 35% in a week
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket that the "foldable iPhone's US launch price will exceed $2,300" has dropped to 15%, down 35% over the past week; the probability of it exceeding $2,200 has fallen to 42%, down 17% week-over-week.The event contract rules state: any foldable smartphone released by Apple will be considered a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly named as such. If the price of the foldable iPhone at its initial US launch is greater than or equal to the specified amount, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If Apple releases multiple foldable iPhone models, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not announce the price of the foldable iPhone by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market will resolve to "No."According to an official announcement from Apple, the fall 2026 new product launch event will be held at 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10, themed "Surprise and shine." However, pricing for the device unexpectedly leaked from overseas carrier Vodafone's backend systems in Australia and Egypt. The Australian channel reveals that the iPhone Ultra will be available in 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB storage options, starting at AUD 3,699. Industry observers estimate that the US starting price for the Ultra could land near $2,000.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Amid renewed U.S.-Iran clashes, Polymarket trader xm39 significantly increases position on "Invasion of Iran" prediction shares
Odaily News - Polymarket trader "xm39" has continued to increase positions on geopolitical conflict-related prediction events on Polymarket, placing three separate buys totaling 274,500 shares on the U.S. invading Iran before 2027, filled at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, with an investment of approximately $41,700.Currently, xm39 holds a cumulative total of 642,300 Yes shares, with a total cost of approximately $127,100 and an unrealized loss of roughly $27,600.Additionally, its associated address also added approximately 28,400 WTI short contracts against the market trend, with a trading volume of around $2.401 million. As oil prices continued to rise, the address closed out all 107,400 short contracts at 9:01 AM, with an average closing price of approximately $84.86, recording a realized loss of roughly $131,500. Just about 10 minutes later, its trading direction flipped from short to long. The address subsequently bought approximately 64,700 WTI contracts consecutively and currently holds about $5.531 million in long positions with 20x full margin, with an unrealized profit of around $18,200, a margin return rate of approximately 6.6%, and a liquidation price of about $64.88.
DeGods Founder Frank Continues to Accumulate "Niu Lai" as Holdings Surpass $500,000
Odaily News: The meme coin "Niu Lai" was listed on Binance Alpha yesterday. After a brief pullback following the news-driven surge, it rebounded in the early hours of today, briefly surpassing a $40 million market cap and currently standing at $38.03 million. DeGods founder Frank has been steadily accumulating, with his current holdings exceeding $500,000 in "Niu Lai." He mentioned that the movie "Niu Lai" will soon be screened in the United States, which is actually a viewing party organized by Polymarket. Qwerty, the top address on the "Niu Lai" profit leaderboard, reduced some of its position yesterday afternoon and has not made any further moves to reduce or increase holdings since then.
xm39 trader liquidated positions just in time to avoid the crude oil plunge, but re-established 10 million in crude oil long positions after the "ceasefire" news
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the address associated with Polymarket trader "xm39" closed all remaining 82,700 long positions on crude oil (CL) on the evening of July 31, with a trading volume of approximately $6.904 million, at an average closing price of $83.52, realizing a profit of approximately $97,000. Afterwards, the address maintained a no-position stance on crude oil defensively for two days.
Polymarket probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" rises to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" on Polymarket has risen to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours; the probability of talks occurring before August 15 has risen to 27%, up 13% in 24 hours.Trump posted on social media today stating that he received a request from Iran to delay the attack and agreed to cancel the strike on Iran in exchange for an agreement. He noted that the U.S. is prepared to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, strength, and capability unseen since World War II, as a framework for an agreement has already been reached. This framework includes the immediate, complete, and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as ending Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, he agreed to cancel the attack for the future interests of the world and the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, provided that an agreement can be reached promptly.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the initiative.
Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before July 24" probability drops to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours
The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of a "ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 24" on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US does not take any military actions that meet the defined criteria against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Excluded actions include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await consensus from official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time. The settlement basis includes official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as reports from credible media outlets.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" rises to 59%, up 19% in a single day
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US takes no qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.Actions not counted include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a military action, the event will await a consensus formed by official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If differences persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time.Settlement will be based on official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket: "WTI crude oil will rise to $80 by July 2026" probability reaches 47%, up 28% in 24 hours
According to PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring, the probability of "WTI crude oil rising to $80 by July 2026" on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in 24 hours.Trump stated today that he may launch a large-scale attack on Iran. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran becomes precarious, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically come to a standstill." Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das stated that since the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the average daily traffic between the outbreak of the conflict (February) and the signing of the agreement on June 17, though still far below pre-war levels.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket 遭攻击 300 万美元用户资金被盗
预测市场平台 Polymarket 因第三方供应商被黑，约 300 万美元用户资金被盗，平台称将全额退款。
On-chain events can be seen up to about 28 seconds earlier, as Polymarket launches its own indexing system
Josh Stevens, VP of Engineering at Polymarket, posted on X that the team has built its own indexing system using the open-source Rust tool rindexer. On-chain events can now be visible up to about 14 blocks earlier, roughly 28 seconds; the system can complete indexing within 0 to 10 milliseconds after a block is broadcast, approaching real-time.The refresh speed for trades, positions, and balances will be further improved.
Moonrock Founder: Even if Clarity Is Rejected, the SEC Will Introduce Similarly Strong Pro-Crypto Policies
Odaily News: Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic posted on X, stating: "The Senate vote on the Clarity Act is expected to take place in about 10 hours. Democrats have already rejected the Republican-drafted bill on the pretext of so-called 'ethics concerns' (eThIcS cOncErNs); the predicted odds on Polymarket have collapsed, and the market has fully priced in expectations of failure. Regardless of the outcome, however, I am very much looking forward to this vote. It means we can finally turn the page and shift our energy to far more important matters. If the bill fails to pass, we will instead get equally strong pro-crypto regulatory policy from the SEC; and if even that doesn't happen, then the responsibility for watching the U.S. hand over its leadership in frontier finance and sit idly by as the world's most dynamic companies move offshore will rest entirely on the Democrats. Politics is tiresome, but America is not so foolish as to let that situation happen. So what must come will come, and we will ultimately prevail."
Jiang Zhuoer: Uncertainty Surrounds Concessions on Key Provisions of U.S. Clarity Act, Prospects for September 16 Procedural Vote Unclear
According to an analysis by Jiangzhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of Litecoin Pool, after Republicans released a new draft of the Clarify Act claiming concessions on 80% of the disputed provisions, Polymarket's passage probability rose accordingly from 14% to 28%. Upon closer inspection, however, the actual concession rate is around 60%, with only partial compromises made on key provisions. Under the ethics clause, the new draft expands restrictions to officials and their spouses but still excludes children and affiliated entities, a move criticized as having limited practical impact; regarding the enforcement clause, while it allows state attorneys general to sue exchanges for listing non-compliant tokens, it explicitly bars suing the Department of Justice for regulatory inaction or the President directly. Jiangzhuoer believes that Democrats lack any incentive to "hand Trump a gift" ahead of the midterm elections, making it unlikely they would endorse this "fake compromise." Consequently, the prospect of the procedural vote passing at 2:15 AM Beijing Time on September 16 is slim, and a failed vote on the Clarify Act could mark the beginning of a correction in the current BTC uptrend.
EU regulators warn prediction markets such as Polymarket lack regulatory approval.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released a report stating that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi lack the formal authorization required to sell contracts to users in the EU. Regulators have also questioned the effectiveness of these platforms in enforcing geo-restrictions and anti-VPN measures.
Polymarket odds of Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026 drop to 6%, down 51% in a single week
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic completing an IPO before October 15, 2026 has dropped to 6%, down 51% in a single week; the probability of an IPO before October 31, 2026 has dropped to 60%, down 29% in a single week.According to the resolution rules, if Anthropic officially lists on a public stock exchange and opens for stock trading before 23:59 Eastern Time on the specified date, it resolves as Yes; otherwise, it resolves as No. In addition, if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly listed company, it immediately resolves as No. The primary basis for resolution of this market is documents and announcements published by Anthropic officially and by the stock exchange where its shares are listed.Previously, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Anthropic planned to launch its IPO roadshow as early as mid-October and was aiming to go public before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Today, however, David Sacks, chairman of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, called for suspending Anthropic's IPO until the relevant "whistleblower" allegations are fully investigated.The "whistleblower" refers to former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who previously resigned over concerns about AI safety risks and publicly accused Anthropic and OpenAI of racing to develop self-improving superintelligence without adequate safety safeguards.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Brent crude breaks above $100, Polymarket bets odds of hitting $100 this month rise to 59%
Odaily News: Brent crude was reported at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day, marking its first time above $100 in six weeks; West Texas Intermediate crude was at $96.27. Saudi officials said Houthi militants attacked Saudi oil facilities on Tuesday morning, injuring 73 people.The U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers the same day, following an attack on three on Saturday, in response to an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a U.S. warship. The crude oil market has been repricing following the escalation of related events.In Myriad's market on whether crude first hits $120 or falls to $55, the probability for the $120 side is 56.5%, up 15.1 percentage points from early September; the market has seen $12.7 million in trading volume since March. Polymarket data shows the probability of WTI hitting $100 this month is 59%, up 9 percentage points, while the probability of hitting $105 is 30%, up 25 percentage points.On Polymarket, the probability of WTI falling to $85 this month has dropped to 39%, down 33 percentage points from the previous reading, with probabilities for all levels below $85 under 10%; the probability for $55 is 1%. U.S. diesel prices rose to $5.94 per gallon on Wednesday, surpassing last week's high, while the average gasoline price stood at $4.22. (Decrypt)
Related news
Kalshi seeks to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, with 30-day trading volume reaching $14.1 billion
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Kalshi is seeking to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, doubling its $22 billion valuation from six months ago. The platform was approved as a designated contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021.As of September 4, Kalshi's trading volume over the past 30 days reached $14.1 billion, while Polymarket's stood at $3.1 billion, with Kalshi accounting for approximately 82% of their combined trading volume. More than 80% of Kalshi's trading volume comes from sports events. (Bitcoin.com News)
Sports betting company Underdog sues Connecticut, seeking to block sports prediction market enforcement
According to The Block, sports betting company Underdog has filed a lawsuit in federal court against Connecticut state officials seeking to prevent the state from classifying its sports event contracts as illegal gambling. Underdog argues that it operates as a federally regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) holds "exclusive jurisdiction" over DCMs, meaning Connecticut's enforcement action conflicts with the framework of the Commodity Exchange Act. Previously, Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) issued cease and desist orders to nine prediction market platforms, including Underdog, Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood. Earlier this month, Underdog also filed separate lawsuits in five states: Ohio, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Washington. Currently, more than twelve states have taken enforcement actions or filed lawsuits against prediction market platforms.
On-chain events can be seen up to about 28 seconds earlier, as Polymarket launches its own indexing system
Josh Stevens, VP of Engineering at Polymarket, posted on X that the team has built its own indexing system using the open-source Rust tool rindexer. On-chain events can now be visible up to about 14 blocks earlier, roughly 28 seconds; the system can complete indexing within 0 to 10 milliseconds after a block is broadcast, approaching real-time.The refresh speed for trades, positions, and balances will be further improved.
Moonrock Founder: Even if Clarity Is Rejected, the SEC Will Introduce Similarly Strong Pro-Crypto Policies
Odaily News: Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic posted on X, stating: "The Senate vote on the Clarity Act is expected to take place in about 10 hours. Democrats have already rejected the Republican-drafted bill on the pretext of so-called 'ethics concerns' (eThIcS cOncErNs); the predicted odds on Polymarket have collapsed, and the market has fully priced in expectations of failure. Regardless of the outcome, however, I am very much looking forward to this vote. It means we can finally turn the page and shift our energy to far more important matters. If the bill fails to pass, we will instead get equally strong pro-crypto regulatory policy from the SEC; and if even that doesn't happen, then the responsibility for watching the U.S. hand over its leadership in frontier finance and sit idly by as the world's most dynamic companies move offshore will rest entirely on the Democrats. Politics is tiresome, but America is not so foolish as to let that situation happen. So what must come will come, and we will ultimately prevail."
Jiang Zhuoer: Uncertainty Surrounds Concessions on Key Provisions of U.S. Clarity Act, Prospects for September 16 Procedural Vote Unclear
According to an analysis by Jiangzhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of Litecoin Pool, after Republicans released a new draft of the Clarify Act claiming concessions on 80% of the disputed provisions, Polymarket's passage probability rose accordingly from 14% to 28%. Upon closer inspection, however, the actual concession rate is around 60%, with only partial compromises made on key provisions. Under the ethics clause, the new draft expands restrictions to officials and their spouses but still excludes children and affiliated entities, a move criticized as having limited practical impact; regarding the enforcement clause, while it allows state attorneys general to sue exchanges for listing non-compliant tokens, it explicitly bars suing the Department of Justice for regulatory inaction or the President directly. Jiangzhuoer believes that Democrats lack any incentive to "hand Trump a gift" ahead of the midterm elections, making it unlikely they would endorse this "fake compromise." Consequently, the prospect of the procedural vote passing at 2:15 AM Beijing Time on September 16 is slim, and a failed vote on the Clarify Act could mark the beginning of a correction in the current BTC uptrend.
Polymarket's probability of OpenAI IPO before March 31, 2027 drops to 33%, down 18% in a single week
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of OpenAI IPO before March 31, 2027 has dropped to 33%, down 18% in a single week; the probability of IPO before June 30, 2027 has risen to 55%, up 5% in a single week.According to the settlement rules, if OpenAI completes its initial public offering before the specified date (US Eastern Time) and it is confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Additionally, if OpenAI is acquired by another already publicly listed company, the market will immediately settle as "No."OpenAI CEO Sam Altman previously stated that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO this year, and that its listing plans will be postponed until at least 2027. Altman said that considering the current state of AI safety, now is not the right time to go public, and the company currently faces no pressure to do so.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.