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Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
Robin Markets Secures $475,000 in Seed Funding, Led by Fabric VC
Robin Markets announced on Twitter that it has completed a $475,000 seed funding round led by Fabric VC, with co-leads including Animoca Brands, ATKA Incubator, John Lilic, and Stefan D. George. Additional participants include Hilbert Capital, Layer Zero, Gnosis, and other institutional and angel investors. Robin Markets has also launched its V1 staking product to the public. Robin Markets is a DeFi platform focused on yield generation from Polymarket positions, with its core product enabling users to earn yield on their Polymarket holdings.
Prediction market Polymarket is in talks for a $400 million funding round, with a $15 billion valuation.
According to The Information, citing sources familiar with the matter, prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks with investors to raise $400 million at a valuation of approximately $1.5 billion (including new capital). This round would be added to the $600 million funding round previously announced last month by Intercontinental Exchange—the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—which did not disclose a valuation at the time.
Polymarket Launches "Anthropic, Developer of Claude, Next Funding Round Deadline"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Citadel Securities President States: Company May Enter Prediction Markets, Focusing on Geopolitical Hedging Rather Than Sports Events
According to The Block, Jim Esposito, President of Citadel Securities, stated on Thursday at the Semafor World Economic Forum in Washington, D.C., that the firm is “fully capable” of providing liquidity to prediction markets—but explicitly expressed no interest in sports-event contracts. Instead, he emphasized the value of prediction markets for hedging geopolitical risks, citing the U.S. midterm elections this November as “one of the greatest risks facing investors’ portfolios.” Esposito noted that as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to grow rapidly, the prediction market is poised for sustained expansion—naturally drawing Citadel Securities into the space. Notably, Zhao Peng, CEO of Citadel Securities, participated last year in Kalshi’s $185 million funding round.
On Polymarket, the market odds for SpaceX’s IPO closing market cap being above $2 trillion stand at 47%.
According to Polymarket’s prediction market page, the current probability of SpaceX’s IPO closing market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion stands at approximately 47%, making it the highest-probability option. The next most likely ranges are $1.8–2 trillion (18%), $1.6–1.8 trillion (13.7%), and $1.4–1.6 trillion (7.8%). Bitget launched its U.S. stock IPO subscription service, IPO Prime, on April 10, with initial support for stablecoin-based subscriptions for SpaceX, referencing an estimated valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. Additionally, Bitget will distribute two rounds of preSPAX airdrops to VIP users: the first round of 760 preSPAX tokens will be distributed tomorrow, and the second round of 190 preSPAX tokens will be distributed on April 20.
Polymarket is in discussions with the CFTC to push for a full relaunch for U.S. users
Polymarket is in communication with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), seeking to reopen its main platform to users in the United States. If approved, this could mean the lifting of restrictions on U.S. users that have been in place since its 2022 settlement with the CFTC.According to the report, Polymarket had already made a limited return to the U.S. market through the regulated QCEX structure. A full return would further intensify the competitive landscape of the U.S. prediction market. (Cointelegraph)
MegaETH Announces Eight-Week Odyssey Ahead of TGE, Tomorrow's TGE Probability Reaches 97%
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
Polymarket's "Powell says 'Good Afternoon' at April Press Conference" probability hits 98%, trading volume exceeds $57,000
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
CFTC Sues Wisconsin to Defend Regulatory Authority Over Prediction Markets
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
Robin Hanson, “one of the founding theorists of prediction markets,” opposes Kalshi and Polymarket’s blanket bans on insider trading.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Trump appears to shift stance on US soldier who bet on Maduro's capture; some allies support pardon
the U.S. Department of Justice has filed charges against U.S. Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accusing him of using classified intelligence to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the U.S. raid on Venezuela, resulting in illegal profits of over $400,000.According to the latest disclosure by CNN, Trump appears to have shifted his stance on the matter. Upon learning that the soldier had bet on Maduro's downfall, Trump compared the situation to baseball legend Pete Rose betting on his own team to win, downplaying the response. Trump stated: "It's like Rose betting on his own team to win. If he bet on his own team to lose, that would be bad, but he bet on them to win. I will look into it." Additionally, given Trump's support for Rose, at least several of Trump's allies have indicated that Trump should pardon the soldier. (CNN)
Polymarket's "Powell says 'Good Afternoon' at April Press Conference" probability hits 98%, trading volume exceeds $57,000
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket probability of "Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before May 31" rises to 63%, up 7% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before May 31" has risen to 63%, up 7% in 24 hours.U.S. President Trump posted on social media: Iran has just informed us that they are in a "state of collapse." They want us to "open the Strait of Hormuz" as soon as possible so they can resolve their leadership issues (and I believe they can!).Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Navy stated that Iran has achieved absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz and requires passing vessels to pay transit fees. He emphasized that the territorial sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz is inviolable, and foreign vessels passing through this waterway must comply with rules set by Iran, including using the Persian language for communication. He said, "Without the Supreme Leader's order and the will of the people, Iran will never allow even a single liter of oil to flow out of the Strait." He also stated that the Iranian military is currently on high alert, with "fingers on the trigger." He claimed that U.S. hegemony in the Persian Gulf has ended and reaffirmed Iran's ability to respond to any form of naval blockade.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
An address deposited 978,000 ZRO tokens to Binance, valued at approximately $1.57 million.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), ZRO—the native token of LayerZero, the cross-chain bridge exploited by hackers in today’s rsETH vulnerability incident—fell 18% on the day, dropping from $1.90 to $1.50. Twenty minutes ago, a Polymarket user with the address “greenrooibos” deposited 978,000 ZRO tokens to Binance, valued at approximately $1.57 million. These ZRO tokens were withdrawn from Binance two weeks ago, when they were worth roughly $2.04 million; this deposit thus corresponds to a loss of approximately $470,000.
Multiple whale addresses sold off on-chain, causing AAVE to drop 15% in a single day.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), after the hacker borrowed a large amount of ETH from Aave by pledging illegally minted rsETH, multiple whale addresses sold AAVE on-chain, causing AAVE’s price to drop 15% that day. Among them, the Polymarket user “smaugvision” sold 20,015 AAVE at an average price of $102.9, worth approximately $2.06 million; address 0xFC5 sold 20,000 AAVE at an average price of $102.8, worth approximately $2.05 million; and address 0xA2E sold 19,665 AAVE at an average price of $99.2, worth approximately $1.95 million.
A mysterious wallet wagered $40,000 on “US-Iran ceasefire will break down”—currently down 85%
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (“bullseye123”) wagered $40,000 on the prediction market Polymarket that Trump would announce the termination of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement by April 15 or 18. This position is currently underwater by approximately $34,000—representing an 85% loss.
Prediction market platform Polymarket疑似遭遇数据泄露，逾30万条记录及漏洞利用工具包外泄
According to Dark Web Informer, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is suspected of having been hacked. The threat actor “xorcat” posted over 300,000 data records and a corresponding exploit toolkit on a well-known cybercrime forum. The data extraction occurred on April 27, 2026. Reportedly, the attacker extracted data via an undisclosed API endpoint, pagination bypasses, and misconfigured CORS settings in Polymarket Gamma and the CLOB API. The leaked data includes: - Full personal information for 10,000 users (including names, proxy wallets, and base addresses); - 4,111 comments; - 1,000 moderation reports (including 58 ETH addresses and administrator authentication address identifiers); - Metadata for 48,536 Gamma markets; - Constant-product market maker addresses for over 250,000 active CLOB markets; and - Social graph data for 9,000 followers. The toolkit contains proof-of-concept code for multiple vulnerabilities, including CVE-2025-62718 (Axios NO_PROXY bypass, CVSS 9.9, enabling server-side request forgery), CVE-2024-51479 (Next.js middleware authentication bypass, CVSS 7.5), and the aforementioned CORS misconfigurations. Additionally, the toolkit includes automated continuous data-extraction scripts and a comprehensive red-team report (including M
Polymarket Launches "When Will the Next Cryptocurrency Hack Exceeding $100 Million in Losses Occur"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will the next cryptocurrency hack exceeding $100 million in losses occur". This market primarily references the Rekt News leaderboard as the adjudication source, and can also use publicly recognized reliable reports as a basis. Currently, this prediction market has set four time nodes: April 30, June 30, September 30, and December 31.The event contract rules are: This is a market regarding whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an attack or hack valued at a minimum of $100 million equivalent between the market creation and 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will ultimately resolve to "No". Hacks on decentralized exchanges and lending protocols will be counted.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
An address deposited 978,000 ZRO tokens to Binance, valued at approximately $1.57 million.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), ZRO—the native token of LayerZero, the cross-chain bridge exploited by hackers in today’s rsETH vulnerability incident—fell 18% on the day, dropping from $1.90 to $1.50. Twenty minutes ago, a Polymarket user with the address “greenrooibos” deposited 978,000 ZRO tokens to Binance, valued at approximately $1.57 million. These ZRO tokens were withdrawn from Binance two weeks ago, when they were worth roughly $2.04 million; this deposit thus corresponds to a loss of approximately $470,000.
Multiple whale addresses sold off on-chain, causing AAVE to drop 15% in a single day.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), after the hacker borrowed a large amount of ETH from Aave by pledging illegally minted rsETH, multiple whale addresses sold AAVE on-chain, causing AAVE’s price to drop 15% that day. Among them, the Polymarket user “smaugvision” sold 20,015 AAVE at an average price of $102.9, worth approximately $2.06 million; address 0xFC5 sold 20,000 AAVE at an average price of $102.8, worth approximately $2.05 million; and address 0xA2E sold 19,665 AAVE at an average price of $99.2, worth approximately $1.95 million.
Hyperliquid Eyes Prediction Market, Plans to Explore Zero Opening Fee Model to Challenge Polymarket
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
XBIT Surpasses $36 Million in Trading Volume Within Just One Month of Launch, Ranking Top 4 Among Polymarket Builders
as of the end of April, crypto trading aggregation platform XBIT ranked 4th on the official Polymarket Builder leaderboard with a monthly trading volume of $36.12 million.The project was officially launched in early April, and XBIT has recently passed the official Polymarket Builder review.Currently, XBIT has launched two core categories: Prediction Market and Perpetual Contracts (Perp DEX). Its next step is to launch a leveraged prediction market, further enriching the aggregated trading experience.
MegaETH Announces Eight-Week Odyssey Ahead of TGE, Tomorrow's TGE Probability Reaches 97%
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
Polymarket's "Powell says 'Good Afternoon' at April Press Conference" probability hits 98%, trading volume exceeds $57,000
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
Prediction market platform Polymarket疑似遭遇数据泄露，逾30万条记录及漏洞利用工具包外泄
According to Dark Web Informer, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is suspected of having been hacked. The threat actor “xorcat” posted over 300,000 data records and a corresponding exploit toolkit on a well-known cybercrime forum. The data extraction occurred on April 27, 2026. Reportedly, the attacker extracted data via an undisclosed API endpoint, pagination bypasses, and misconfigured CORS settings in Polymarket Gamma and the CLOB API. The leaked data includes: - Full personal information for 10,000 users (including names, proxy wallets, and base addresses); - 4,111 comments; - 1,000 moderation reports (including 58 ETH addresses and administrator authentication address identifiers); - Metadata for 48,536 Gamma markets; - Constant-product market maker addresses for over 250,000 active CLOB markets; and - Social graph data for 9,000 followers. The toolkit contains proof-of-concept code for multiple vulnerabilities, including CVE-2025-62718 (Axios NO_PROXY bypass, CVSS 9.9, enabling server-side request forgery), CVE-2024-51479 (Next.js middleware authentication bypass, CVSS 7.5), and the aforementioned CORS misconfigurations. Additionally, the toolkit includes automated continuous data-extraction scripts and a comprehensive red-team report (including M
Polymarket: Upgraded Trading Platform Now Live with $1 Million Liquidity Rewards
Polymarket announced on X platform that the upgraded CLOB v2 exchange is now live. A $1 million liquidity rewards campaign is currently underway, with $500,000 distributed within the first 2 hours and the remaining $500,000 distributed throughout the rest of the day. After logging in, users will be prompted to convert their balances to pUSD and approve the new contract.
Related news
Hyperliquid Eyes Prediction Market, Plans to Explore Zero Opening Fee Model to Challenge Polymarket
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain's championship probability once overtook Bayern Munich, now rising to 32%, up 6% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "UEFA Champions League Winner" prediction event, Paris Saint-Germain's championship probability once overtook Bayern Munich's, now rising to 32% and tied with Bayern Munich, with a 24-hour increase of 6%, while Bayern Munich's championship probability dropped 5% in 24 hours; in addition, Arsenal and Atlético Madrid currently have championship probabilities of 27% and 11%, respectively. To date, the total trading volume of the "UEFA Champions League Winner" event contract has exceeded $248 million.In the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals, Paris Saint-Germain secured a narrow 5-4 victory over Bayern Munich at home, gaining a slight advantage in the two-legged tie. The two sides will move to Munich for the second leg on May 6. The first leg of the other semi-final will take place on April 29 local time, with Atlético Madrid hosting Arsenal.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor prediction markets. See the changes before the pricing.
XBIT Surpasses $36 Million in Trading Volume Within Just One Month of Launch, Ranking Top 4 Among Polymarket Builders
as of the end of April, crypto trading aggregation platform XBIT ranked 4th on the official Polymarket Builder leaderboard with a monthly trading volume of $36.12 million.The project was officially launched in early April, and XBIT has recently passed the official Polymarket Builder review.Currently, XBIT has launched two core categories: Prediction Market and Perpetual Contracts (Perp DEX). Its next step is to launch a leveraged prediction market, further enriching the aggregated trading experience.
Polymarket is in discussions with the CFTC to push for a full relaunch for U.S. users
Polymarket is in communication with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), seeking to reopen its main platform to users in the United States. If approved, this could mean the lifting of restrictions on U.S. users that have been in place since its 2022 settlement with the CFTC.According to the report, Polymarket had already made a limited return to the U.S. market through the regulated QCEX structure. A full return would further intensify the competitive landscape of the U.S. prediction market. (Cointelegraph)
MegaETH Announces Eight-Week Odyssey Ahead of TGE, Tomorrow's TGE Probability Reaches 97%
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
Win Rate 53% Account Bets $43,000 on T1 Defeating NS
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "League of Legends T1 vs. Nongshim Red Force" prediction event, an account (address: 0x13414a77a4be48988851c73dfd824d0168e70853) with a 53% win rate purchased a total of $43,000 worth of shares predicting T1 would defeat Nongshim Red Force (NS), with an entry price of 75¢. This match is scheduled to start on April 29 at 16:00 Beijing time.T1 and NS have faced each other approximately 26 times in official League of Legends competitions, with T1 holding a clear advantage of 21 wins and 5 losses, giving them a win rate of about 81%. Particularly during the Faker era, T1 has consistently secured most series against NS. Historically, matchups between T1 and NS have generally been "favorable matchups" for T1, though NS occasionally possesses the ability to upset them. Currently, in the LCK regular season standings, T1 is tied with Gen.G for third place, while NS ranks sixth.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.