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Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
Polymarket probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" drops to 6%, down 25% in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Prediction market suggests probability of GPT-6 public release before September 30 rises to approximately 78%
Prediction market traders have priced the probability of OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 by September 30 at approximately 78%. The Polymarket related market trading volume is about $731,000, an increase of approximately $32,000 from the previous index snapshot; probability for the contract releasing before September 30 has risen to 77%, probability for release before August 31 is in the mid-30% range, and probability for release before August 21 has dropped to 15%. On Myriad, the probability for a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not yet publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. The company also announced the addition of 250 new positions in Dublin, while SoftBank is providing financing for OpenAI's related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.
Prediction market platform Pascal completes $9 million Series A funding round led by USV
: Prediction market platform Pascal has announced the completion of a $9 million Series A funding round. The platform aims to create a next-generation prediction market platform for professional traders and institutional users, challenging the current market landscape dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket.This funding round was led by Union Square Ventures (USV), with the specific valuation not disclosed. This financing expands on a $6 million seed round from August last year, with early investors including Wintermute Ventures and DBA.Headquartered in New York, Pascal positions itself as a prediction market platform similar to Kalshi, but aims to offer users lower fees, higher liquidity, and more specialized trading tools through a trading model closer to perpetual futures.Pascal co-founder Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen stated that the hope is to establish highly liquid prediction markets for real business risks in the future, allowing companies to utilize these markets for risk management and hedging. (Fortune)
Polymarket: Probability of Anthropic's Year-End Valuation Reaching $1.5 Trillion Rises to 78%, Up 47% in 24 Hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, for the prediction event "Anthropic's highest valuation this year," the probability of Anthropic reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation by the end of 2026 has risen to 78%, up 47% in 24 hours; the probability of reaching $2 trillion has risen to 37%, up 19% in 24 hours.On June 1, Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC, officially initiating its IPO process in the United States. Recently, research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that Anthropic is expected to achieve $1 billion in GAAP operating profit in the third quarter of 2026, with an operating profit margin of 6%.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay one step ahead, and seize the opportunity.https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31
AI Data Analysis Platform Polysights Raises $1.5 Million in Pre-Seed Funding, with YZi Labs Among Participants
Polymarket-backed AI data analysis platform Polysights announced the completion of a $1.5 million Pre-Seed funding round, with participation from YZi Labs, Maven11, Varys Capital, Contribution Capital, and Edge Ventures. The platform is currently in its Beta stage, and the new funds will support its use of AI technology to detect wallet clustering behavior, abnormal market fluctuations, and potential insider trading signs, providing data analysis support for traders, research institutions, and institutional investors (CNBC).
Kalshi in Talks to Raise Funding at $40 Billion Valuation
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Within the Year Decreases, Potentially Undermining Crypto Market Prospects
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
美国联邦法院驳回 CFTC禁令申请，威斯康星州赌博法对预测市场的执法权获维持
据美国威斯康星州东区联邦地区法院 7月 28 日裁决，法院驳回了 CFTC 要求禁止威斯康星州对 Kalshi、Coinbase、Robinhood、Polymarket及 Crypto.com 等平台的体育相关事件合约执法的初步禁令申请。法院认为，CFTC 未能证明其主张——即《商品交易法》（CEA）对"掉期"的定义涵盖体育事件合约——具有胜诉可能性，且赌博监管属于州传统警察权范畴，联邦法律并未明确表示意图取代州法。此外，法院同时驳回了 Kalshi、Crypto.com 衍生品北美公司（CDNA）的介入申请及美国博彩协会（AGA）的被告介入申请。目前，CFTC 与威斯康星州的实质性诉讼仍将继续推进。
Polymarket establishes research institute to fund academic studies on prediction markets
: Prediction market platform Polymarket has announced the establishment of the Polymarket Institute, dedicated to funding independent academic research on how prediction markets can replace traditional polling and forecasting models in large-scale scenarios. The institute is fully funded by Polymarket and operates internally within the company. Its Executive Director is Polymarket's Head of Data, Kai Brusch, and its Scientific Director is Brian Jabarian, Assistant Professor of Economics and Technology at Carnegie Mellon University. Research directions include information aggregation, risk management, and intersections with AI, policy, and crypto markets.
44 State Attorneys General Send Joint Letter to CFTC: Regulatory Authority Over Sports Prediction Markets Does Not Belong to Federal Government
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
Kalshi Settles $3.32 Million Spotify Prediction Market After Fraudulent Streaming Warning
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Within the Year Decreases, Potentially Undermining Crypto Market Prospects
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Kalshi Settles $3.32 Million Spotify Prediction Market After Fraudulent Streaming Warning
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
Faraji Aide Cottrell Exposed for Taking $9 Million on Polymarket and Betting on Trump Election
According to Protos, George Cottrell, an aide to UK Reform Party leader Nigel Farage who was previously convicted of wire fraud, had his Polymarket account (username "GCottrell93") receive a total of $8.8 million in funds in October 2024—$7 million of which came from an OKX exchange wallet (in five transactions), and another $1.83 million from a ChangeNOW wallet. These funds were subsequently used to bet on Trump winning the US election, with approximately $13 million in winnings ultimately transferred to an OKX wallet and $282,000 to ChangeNOW.
Polymarket shows 75% probability of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July
According to the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "Bitcoin July Price" prediction market, BTC currently has a 75% probability of reaching $67,500, a 34% probability of reaching $70,000, and a 12% probability of reaching $72,500.Recently, Bitcoin has continued its rebound trend. According to OKX data, BTC approached $67,000 last night, with market sentiment steadily warming. Additionally, the previously bullish whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" took profits and exited early yesterday morning, but posted on X platform, stating, "The trend remains bullish; this is simply taking profits and securing gains."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Probability of Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July rises to 70%, spot ETFs see net inflows for 5 consecutive days
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders have raised the probability of Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July to 70%, up from about 56% earlier this week. The current market probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 stands at 82%, while the probability of it falling below $60,000 is 13%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive trading day this week, fueling bets on higher prices. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained its target interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh has shifted the central bank's communication style to purely data-dependent.
Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before July 24" probability drops to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours
The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of a "ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 24" on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US does not take any military actions that meet the defined criteria against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Excluded actions include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await consensus from official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time. The settlement basis includes official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as reports from credible media outlets.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" rises to 59%, up 19% in a single day
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US takes no qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.Actions not counted include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a military action, the event will await a consensus formed by official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If differences persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time.Settlement will be based on official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket: "WTI crude oil will rise to $80 by July 2026" probability reaches 47%, up 28% in 24 hours
According to PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring, the probability of "WTI crude oil rising to $80 by July 2026" on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in 24 hours.Trump stated today that he may launch a large-scale attack on Iran. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran becomes precarious, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically come to a standstill." Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das stated that since the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the average daily traffic between the outbreak of the conflict (February) and the signing of the agreement on June 17, though still far below pre-war levels.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket 遭攻击 300 万美元用户资金被盗
预测市场平台 Polymarket 因第三方供应商被黑，约 300 万美元用户资金被盗，平台称将全额退款。
Specter: Multiple Polymarket Users Suspected Victims of Phishing Attack, Losses Approximately $2.94 Million
on-chain security analyst Specter has stated that a suspected phishing attack targeting Polymarket users is underway, with cumulative losses currently estimated at approximately $2.94 million. According to their monitoring, the attacker has transferred funds from over 11 victim wallets holding PUSD, swapping the stolen assets for ETH. Specter also reminds users to be vigilant against phishing risks and notes that the incident is still being actively tracked.
Polymarket probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" drops to 6%, down 25% in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
Polymarket crypto up/down market settlement to switch to TWAP, adding $1 million in liquidity rewards in August
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Polymarket has announced that, to enhance the manipulation resistance of its cryptocurrency up/down prediction markets, affected markets will transition from single price snapshot settlement to Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) settlement starting from 00:00 UTC on August 7. Specifically, the 5-minute markets will adopt a 30-second TWAP, while the 15-minute and 4-hour markets will adopt a 60-second TWAP.Additionally, the platform will provide a total of $1 million in liquidity rewards for the relevant markets throughout August. Chainlink's TWAP testnet data feed is now live, with the mainnet data feed and Polymarket's Real-Time Data Streams (RTDS) scheduled to go live on August 4, 2026.
44 State Attorneys General Send Joint Letter to CFTC: Regulatory Authority Over Sports Prediction Markets Does Not Belong to Federal Government
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
Gate prediction market focuses on League of Legends LCK showdown, T1 support rate reaches 79% overpowering KT Rolster
as the esports event prediction market continues to heat up, the League of Legends LCK (Legends Group Round 3-4) is featuring a marquee matchup: T1 will face KT Rolster at 18:00 (UTC+8) on July 29. According to the latest data from the Gate prediction market, T1 currently holds a support rate of approximately 79%, while KT Rolster stands at around 22%. The Gate prediction market closely follows global sports and esports hotspots, continuously enriching trading scenarios to deliver an efficient and seamless one-stop prediction experience for users.Gate is launching the "Esports Peak Trading Season" from July 20, 16:00 to August 10, 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. After registering, users who participate in designated esports event prediction trades on the Gate prediction market can unlock newcomer benefits, weekly task rewards, and compete on the esports prediction trading leaderboard. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become a key gateway for users to engage with prediction markets. Users can access Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage, using USDT in their accounts to conveniently participate in prediction market trades for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining additional reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, offering users a diversified prediction trading experience covering popular esports events and other major happenings.
Apple's market cap is approximately $5 trillion, with Polymarket predicting a 79% probability it will become the world's most valuable company by the end of July
on Polymarket, Apple has around a 79% probability of becoming the world's most valuable company by the end of July, while Nvidia's probability has dropped to approximately 22%. The cumulative trading volume for this prediction market is about $4.7 million. At Tuesday's close, Apple's market cap was approximately $4.995 trillion, and Nvidia's market cap stood at about $4.768 trillion, giving Apple a lead of roughly $227 billion. This contract will be settled based on the market caps of the two companies at the close of trading on July 31. Apple is scheduled to release its third fiscal quarter earnings on July 30 at 5 PM Eastern Time. Nvidia's latest fiscal quarter saw data center revenue grow by 75% to $62.3 billion.
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Polymarket probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" drops to 6%, down 25% in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket odds of "AI bubble bursting within the year" drop to 19%, down 5% in 24 hours
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "AI bubble bursting within the year" has dropped to 19%, a 5% decrease in 24 hours.According to the resolution rules, the market will only resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences at least three major negative events within a specified period, all occurring within the same 90-day window. Trigger conditions include: Nvidia (NVDA) stock falling 50% from its all-time high, the SOXX semiconductor ETF falling 40% from its all-time high, OpenAI or Anthropic filing for bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 GPU rental prices dropping below $1 for five consecutive days, and major AI hardware suppliers such as TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista Networks, or Super Micro Computer seeing their stocks fall 50% from all-time highs.Previously reported, the fund Situational Awareness, managed by AI stock guru Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold off its entire public stock portfolio due to liquidity pressure, with Citadel as the buyer. However, the market believes this forced liquidation could accelerate the deleveraging of AI trades and serve as a signal for some investors that short-term risks in the AI sector have been released, potentially stabilizing the market.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize opportunities.
Polymarket odds of Apple being the world's most valuable company by end of August drop to 22%
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "World's Most Valuable Company by End of August" prediction market, Apple's probability of being the most valuable company currently stands at 22%, down 73% from today's high. Nvidia's probability of being the most valuable company currently stands at 79%, up 75% from today's low.According to the settlement rules, this market will be settled based on the global market capitalization rankings of companies at the close of U.S. stock markets on August 31, 2026, with the highest-valued company being declared the final winner. As of now, Apple's market capitalization is approximately $4.97 trillion, ranking first globally; Nvidia's market capitalization is approximately $4.60 trillion, ranking second globally.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Within the Year Decreases, Potentially Undermining Crypto Market Prospects
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
CME FedWatch Shows Probability of Fed 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike in September Rises to 61.4%
Odaily Odaily News The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, is 61.4%, up from 50.6% a month ago. The expectation for a 50-basis-point rate hike has dropped to 0% from 25% a week ago, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%. On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the committee has only a single 2% inflation target and does not have a soft or implicit soft target for inflation. In prediction markets, traders on Kalshi see a 53% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September and a 44% probability of no change, with related trading volume exceeding $1.36 million. On Polymarket, related trading volume exceeds $8 million, with participants pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike and a 46% probability of no change.