News linked to both this project and an event.
Polymarket announced on X platform that the upgraded CLOB v2 exchange is now live. A $1 million liquidity rewards campaign is currently underway, with $500,000 distributed within the first 2 hours and the remaining $500,000 distributed throughout the rest of the day. After logging in, users will be prompted to convert their balances to pUSD and approve the new contract.
According to official sources, Polymarket is undergoing a coordinated upgrade of its exchange stack, including new smart contracts, a rewritten order book, and new collateral tokens. During the transition, trading will be paused for approximately one hour (until around 20:00 UTC+8).
in the Gate Prediction Market event concerning the "Second-Largest Company by the End of April," Alphabet's current probability has reached 99%, significantly领先 over other options such as Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Saudi Aramco, indicating a highly concentrated market expectation. In terms of related asset trading, Gate's Perpetual Contract Stock Section has listed several popular tech stock perpetual contracts, including GOOGLXUSDT, NVDAXUSDT, and TSLAXUSDT, providing users with diverse participation pathways from event assessment to asset trading.Meanwhile, the Gate Prediction Market has completed multiple functional upgrades: added a one-stop search and intelligent recommendation mechanism, supporting keyword quick retrieval and category browsing; enhanced historical billing and filtering functions, making fund flows clearer and more traceable; added a multi-level category and breaking news section on the homepage to help users efficiently capture hot opportunities; and expanded the sports market to include more derivative gameplay, enhancing strategic flexibility while lowering participation barriers.Currently, Gate's performance within the Polymarket partnership channel continues to improve, with its market share ranking among the top two in the industry. Users can access the prediction market directly through the Gate App, enter the Polymarket page via the Alpha feature on the platform's homepage, and use USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, offering users a diversified market experience from expectation assessment to trading participation.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has a new event "Elon Musk wins at least $10 billion settlement from Altman/OpenAI". Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 14%.The rules for this event contract are: As of 23:59 EST on December 31, 2026, if Elon Musk's lawsuit against Altman (Case No.: 4:24-cv-04722-YGR, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California) results in a jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement of no less than $10 billion in cash or equivalent compensation at the initial trial stage, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". If the case is mistried, the initial trial compensation does not meet the threshold, or the compensation is solely non-monetary relief, the judgment will be "No". Results from retrials or appeals will not be considered in this market. The primary basis for judgment will be official information from the U.S. court system, supplemented by consensus reports from credible media outlets.The trial of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI commenced on April 27 local time with jury selection. The two sides escalated their public confrontation on the X platform before the trial. OpenAI called the lawsuit baseless, while Elon Musk repeatedly posted attacking Sam Altman as "Scam Altman." The core of the case revolves around the controversy over OpenAI's transition to a for-profit entity. Elon Musk accuses OpenAI of betraying its original non-profit founding pledge, seeks up to $134 billion in damages, demands the reversal of the for-profit restructuring, and the removal of relevant executives. The liability determination phase is expected to last until mid-May.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets. See the changes before the pricing.
Polymarket official development account Polymarket Developers posted on X platform, stating that the exchange upgrade will go live at 11:00 UTC on April 28 (19:00 Beijing time), with an estimated downtime of about 1 hour. The V1 order book will be cleared, all open limit orders will be canceled, and funds and positions will remain secure. Users trading via API need to update to the latest SDK beforehand, and the v1 client will cease to function after the switch.
the U.S. Department of Justice has filed charges against U.S. Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accusing him of using classified intelligence to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the U.S. raid on Venezuela, resulting in illegal profits of over $400,000.According to the latest disclosure by CNN, Trump appears to have shifted his stance on the matter. Upon learning that the soldier had bet on Maduro's downfall, Trump compared the situation to baseball legend Pete Rose betting on his own team to win, downplaying the response. Trump stated: "It's like Rose betting on his own team to win. If he bet on his own team to lose, that would be bad, but he bet on them to win. I will look into it." Additionally, given Trump's support for Rose, at least several of Trump's allies have indicated that Trump should pardon the soldier. (CNN)
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Playoffs Western Conference First Round G4 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets" prediction event, an account with a 63% win rate (address: 0x9495425feeb0c250accb89275c97587011b19a27) purchased $310,000 on Timberwolves beating Nuggets, with an average entry price of 48¢.NBA Playoffs Western Conference First Round G4 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets will tip off at 8:30 AM Beijing time today. The series currently stands at 2-1, with the Timberwolves leading. According to the Nuggets' official injury report, Aaron Gordon (calf injury) has been upgraded to questionable. In the previous game, Gordon was sidelined due to injury, and the Nuggets lost 96-113 to the Timberwolves.Odaily Seer keeps a close watch on prediction markets, seeing the change before the price is set.
According to Cointelegraph, Brazilian authorities have announced the blocking of 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood’s prediction feature, and Fanatics Markets. The ban is led by the Ministry of Finance and enforced by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), based on Resolution No. 5,298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on April 25, and will officially take effect in early May. The new regulation explicitly prohibits prediction contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events, deeming them closer in nature to gambling than financial investment; only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices—are permitted. Dario Durigan, Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, stated that prediction markets could exacerbate debt burdens for households and small- and medium-sized enterprises, posing financial risks. Similar restrictions have already been adopted by several countries, including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Josh (@devjoshstevens), Engineering Vice President at Polymarket, publicly acknowledged that the platform’s business growth has significantly outpaced its current infrastructure capacity and announced a series of technical improvement initiatives. These include: rebuilding the CLOB (centralized limit order book) to enhance performance and stability; migrating to a new blockchain to secure additional block space, reduce gas fees, and shorten block times; fixing transaction cancellation issues; launching a unified TypeScript SDK and unified API; developing a new version of the Polymarket smart contracts with expanded functionality; and building a new perpetuals (Perps) backend entirely in Rust. Additionally, the team is hiring new leads for QA automation, developer tools, internal tools, and data engineering. It will also continue collaborating with four security teams to safeguard user funds.
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.
The Odaily Seer Channel has monitored that today DeepSeek officially announced the release of a preview version of DeepSeek-V4. However, on Polymarket, the specific release date of DeepSeek V4 has become the subject of three rounds of UMA dispute arbitration.The reason lies in the settlement rules for this event, which state that only versions representing the core version evolution of the DeepSeek V series, and which are “explicitly positioned as the successor to DeepSeek-V3,” meet the criteria. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., “V4-Lite”, “V4-Mini”), task-specific models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview versions (e.g., “V4-Exp”, “V4-Preview”), do not qualify if they are not positioned as new flagship V-series models.Therefore, some opponents argue that what DeepSeek officially released today is the V4-Preview version, not the official V4, and that “DeepSeek V4 was released on April 24” should be settled as No, not Yes.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket posted on X platform, saying, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discovered that a user was trading based on government classified information, we referred the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves the system is effective."The arrest referred to by Polymarket involved a special forces soldier who participated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and was taken into custody by U.S. federal authorities on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe that the commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January.For details on the insider trading related to the Maduro capture operation on Polymarket, please see When War is Settled Before the News is Out: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" Maduro's Capture 6 Days Early
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that today MegaETH announced its TGE for April 30, while the probability of "MegaETH issuing tokens before April 30" on Polymarket is currently 95%, which may be related to the settlement rules.The market settlement rule states that if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date specified in the title, the prediction market outcome will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "No."Another key rule, "The token must be publicly available for normal transfer and trading; merely issuing related announcements does not satisfy the judgment condition," may be the reason the probability has not reached 100%.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, spotting changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring indicates that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will SpaceX acquire Cursor," with the current probability of "Yes" at 74%.The event contract rules are as follows: If, before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, it is officially announced that Cursor will be acquired by SpaceX or will merge with it, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Mergers or acquisitions involving Cursor or its parent company (where applicable) with SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., are eligible. The outcome will be "Yes" as long as Cursor or SpaceX issues an announcement within the market's timeframe, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may also qualify as long as the acquiring company gains a controlling interest in the other company. "Controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically meaning over 50% equity, or equivalent control through voting rights and governance). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest are not eligible. The primary source for resolving this market will be official information from Cursor and SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reports may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before they are priced.
Odaily Pyth Network has announced a major strategic transformation: a comprehensive infrastructure upgrade and a shift in its economic model from token incentives to revenue-driven. According to two core proposals (OP-PIP-100, OP-PIP-103), Pythnet will be gradually shut down by 2026, with focus shifting to the next-generation underlying network Lazer. The OIS staking reward mechanism will be terminated (parameter Y set to 0), while the security slashing mechanism will be retained.Meanwhile, the PYTH Reserve has repurchased approximately 12 million PYTH using protocol revenue. Commercial products (Pyth Pro, Data Markets) have become the core growth drivers, with leading prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi already integrated. Institutional adoption continues to rise.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "Trump will continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," an account with an 81% win rate (@Pajamapants) purchased $40,000 in "Trump will not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," with an average opening price of 68.5¢.The specific rules are: If President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and formally announces the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, the market will ultimately resolve to "No." The qualifying statement must be clear and explicitly indicate that the U.S. has lifted, ended, will lift, or will end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, or use equivalent clear language explicitly stating that the blockade has stopped or will stop by the specified date (e.g., a statement explicitly indicating that U.S. Navy activities in the relevant area have ceased qualifies). Statements merely describing actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly stating the blockade is lifted are insufficient. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements by Donald Trump (e.g., posts on his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used. Note: This market will be resolved solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or maritime traffic resumes, in the absence of a qualifying announcement, will not be considered.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced plans to launch perpetual futures contracts. Polymarket posted a video on X on Tuesday stating it will list perpetual futures products tied to crypto tokens, U.S. equities, and commodities; Kalshi has a similar plan. Perpetual futures are crypto-native derivatives with no fixed expiration date. It remains unclear whether Polymarket will offer these products in the U.S. market, as such products face relatively strict regulatory restrictions in the United States.
Odaily News Polymarket announced in a post that it will launch a Perpetual Contracts (Perps) feature, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading with leverage on the platform in the future. Early access registration is now open.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Channel, a new market has been launched on Polymarket: "Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz to 'Trump Strait' by May 31st?" The current probability for "Yes" is temporarily reported at 6%, having dropped 31% in the past 24 hours. The total betting volume for this event currently exceeds $47,000.The contract rules for this event are as follows: The market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly announces that the United States will formally refer to the Strait of Hormuz as "Trump Strait" or "Trump Straits" or any equivalent name containing "Trump" by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official communications from Donald Trump, but consensus from credible reporting may also be used.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.