News linked to both this project and an event.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
The PPP prediction market tool monitors that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Netherlands vs. Morocco" prediction event, a smart money address (0x0c787cc2962ee6464414da592b892c3886e077f1) with total profits exceeding $229,000 purchased $116,000 on the Netherlands defeating Morocco. The average entry price was 43¢, with 274,653.6 shares bought, currently showing an unrealized loss of $1,373.The Round of 32 match between the uncrowned kings of the Netherlands and Africa Cup of Nations champions Morocco will kick off on June 30 at 9:00 AM Beijing time. Morocco's current FIFA ranking has just risen to 6th, one spot ahead of the Netherlands. In this World Cup, the Netherlands is known as the "strong offense, weak defense Tulips," while Morocco is the "upgraded Atlas Lions," making this match full of suspense.The Odaily Seer channel continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Odaily reporter: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his subordinates to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena.Executives said that Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The application will rely on points similar to those in video games, rather than accepting real money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users for the application and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
According to market sources: Prediction market platform Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion, with daily trading volume soaring from $50 million to $200 million. (Sina Finance)
data released by a16z crypto shows prediction market trading volume has set a new all-time high for the third consecutive week. Last week, total market trading volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from approximately $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. The previous peak of around $10 billion was set just a week prior. Additionally, open interest rose to $1.6 billion, hitting a new record for the third straight week, indicating that the pace of new position opening continues to outpace closing, resulting in ever-expanding capital exposure. Notably, growth in non-sports markets—covering areas such as macroeconomics and unexpected events—has been particularly pronounced. Last week, combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, already surpassing the total volume of all prediction market categories last year.
Polymarket-backed AI data analysis platform Polysights announced the completion of a $1.5 million Pre-Seed funding round, with participation from YZi Labs, Maven11, Varys Capital, Contribution Capital, and Edge Ventures. The platform is currently in its Beta stage, and the new funds will support its use of AI technology to detect wallet clustering behavior, abnormal market fluctuations, and potential insider trading signs, providing data analysis support for traders, research institutions, and institutional investors (CNBC).
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event titled “What clauses will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement contain before December 31, 2026.”Iran Reconstruction Funding: Whether a non-Iranian-led mechanism for Iran's reconstruction or economic development funding will be established;Dilution of Iran's Uranium: Whether Iran will be required to dilute or downgrade enriched uranium under its control;Uranium Enrichment % Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment purity lasting more than one year will be set;≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment at low or below purity levels lasting more than one year will be set;Enriched Uranium Surrender: Whether Iran will be required to transfer part or all of its enriched uranium to non-Iranian entities;1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium: Whether a comprehensive suspension of uranium enrichment activities lasting more than one year will be implemented.According to the settlement rules, this event will be based on the official text of the formal written diplomatic document ultimately signed or formally approved by both sides. Currently, US-Iran negotiations are undergoing intensive communication around ceasefire lines, asset unfreezing, and the rules of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The launch of this series of prediction events provides the financial market with an intuitive and detailed indicator for observing the long-term trajectory of geopolitical risks.The Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "Arcium FDV Above $300M One Day After Launch" probability has risen to 93%, up 58% in 24 hours.According to the rules, if the fully diluted valuation of Arcium's officially issued token exceeds the target value at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after its launch, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No."FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. Only tokens officially issued by Arcium that are publicly tradable are valid. Stablecoins, Meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic assets are excluded from the calculation. If Arcium has not issued a token by 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will be settled as "No."Previous news: Binance Futures will list the ARXUSDT perpetual contract.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
: Polymarket has been appointed as the exclusive predictive market partner for the German Football Bundesliga in the US market.Polymarket stated that official event prediction contracts related to the Bundesliga and its clubs are now live, allowing users to engage in prediction trading on related matches and events. (The Block)
: The FAQs section of the Polymarket official documentation, under the question "Does Polymarket have a token?", is marked with "Updated Today". The latest content after the update, translated into Chinese, is as follows:All trading and liquidity rewards are denominated in pUSD, a standard ERC-20 token on the Polygon platform backed by USDC.Polymarket has not announced any plans for an airdrop or token distribution event. Please be cautious of scams claiming to be airdrops or giveaways. Furthermore, the platform has not disclosed any details regarding future potential projects, rewards, or eligibility criteria. We encourage users to focus on authentic interaction with the platform rather than relying on speculative information.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has been accused of paying dozens of creators, mostly of college age, to film betting videos on pages closely resembling its website, with some videos also showing fabricated profits. A review of 1,105 videos posted by 10 creators since December found that approximately 70% contained betting content, and the roughly $1.9 million in wagers displayed were not real transactions. One video released in January showed college student George Makihara celebrating a $100,000 win from betting that Donald Trump would say "McDonald’s" that month. However, the footage was reportedly filmed two months early; Trump did not publicly utter the word in January of that year, and over 50 real accounts betting on the same event on Polymarket all incurred losses. Some creators entered trades on test pages, including the misspelled domain "poiymarket.com," which were allegedly built by Polymarket or used for engineering test environments. In 118 videos, creators displayed nearly $900,000 in fictitious gains, while these bets would have resulted in losses of over $166,000 based on actual outcomes. Creators received approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per month and were instructed not to disclose the collaboration arrangement. Polymarket stated it is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of promotional content. (Decrypt)
Gate has completed the upgrade of its prediction market World Cup section, further enhancing the prediction market experience within the tournament context. After upgrading the Gate App to version v8.25.0 or higher, users can enter the World Cup section with one click via a newly added entry on the homepage, quickly viewing match schedules, standings, popular prediction markets, and more, thereby improving the efficiency of tracking and participating in the tournament. This upgrade adds new sections such as historical champions, best players, and news, providing users with references on team historical records, player performance data, and World Cup hot topics. Simultaneously, a team subscription feature has been launched, allowing users to follow specific national teams or subscribe to all World Cup events with one click, to promptly obtain related match and prediction opportunities. The section also adds a page sharing function, making it convenient for users to share match details, leaderboards, and prediction market content.Furthermore, Gate has launched a World Cup-themed leaderboard to centrally showcase traders with outstanding prediction performance related to the World Cup. This is combined with a "Smart Money" feature to help users track the activities of high-win-rate traders. The platform has recently introduced a prediction market trial voucher mechanism, allowing users to experience prediction market trading at zero cost while retaining profit opportunities, further lowering the barrier to participation. Surrounding the World Cup events, Gate has also launched a series of activities such as "Green Pitch Prophet, World Cup Prediction Carnival" and "Gate Prediction Market × World Cup Daily Highlight Matches," releasing a prize pool of over 550,000 USDT. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate continues to promote the deep integration of prediction markets and sports events, further enriching the application scenarios of prediction markets.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket “GPT-5.6 will not be publicly available before June 28” probability has risen to 78%, up 67% in 24 hours.OpenAI Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a significant upgrade over GPT-5.5 in an internal memo on June 11. Analysts suggest that previous leaked information related to the Codex backend in May, along with the relatively fast iteration pace following the release of GPT-5.5 on April 23, have strengthened market expectations for the imminent launch of GPT-5.6.The rules stipulate that GPT-5.6 includes both models explicitly named GPT-5.6 and models identified by OpenAI as direct successors to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.). Task-specific models, cost-optimized versions like Nano/Mini, and o-series reasoning models are not within the scope of this event. Next-generation flagship models such as GPT-6 are also ineligible. Eligible models must be officially opened for public use, including open beta or open waitlist forms. Versions limited to closed beta or private access do not meet the settlement criteria.This event will primarily rely on OpenAI’s official announcements and website information as the main basis for settlement, supplemented by verification from credible media reports.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
prediction market platform Polymarket has been accused of promoting its products on social media by paying creators to post videos featuring simulated trading and fake profits.According to the report, the creators used simulation sites that closely resemble Polymarket's actual website to produce trading videos. Some of the content showcased high returns that did not actually occur, and certain videos required approval from Polymarket before posting. Polymarket managed these influencer campaigns through the marketing firm Virality. Despite its services being restricted for US users, the promotional activities still appear to have been targeted at an American audience.Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket had a multi-million dollar promotional partnership with influencer Adin Ross to drive user engagement on the platform. Polymarket has not yet issued a public response to these allegations. (Wall Street Journal)
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platform Polymarket is accused of hiring paid content creators to post a large number of deceptive “profit showcase” videos on social media—where all claimed earnings are fabricated. An investigation revealed that in one video, a college student claimed to have won $100,000 on Polymarket by betting on “Trump publicly mentioning McDonald’s,” but the reported profit was not real.