News linked to both this project and an event.
Chainlink announced that Polymarket is deepening their collaboration, expanding 15-minute markets beyond crypto assets, with gold and silver markets now live, and plans to cover more commodities, stocks, and foreign exchange in the future.
Odaily reports: Trust Wallet stated that although the recent attacks on Polymarket and Binance did not affect Trust Wallet itself, the team conducted a comprehensive review of security defense measures this morning, including improving standard operating procedures (SOPs) and formulating a code hardening plan to address the attack risks brought by the development of AI technology. Trust Wallet said it will take every security incident in the industry seriously and learn from them. Specific measures will not be disclosed for now, but related reports may be published in the future, and the team plans to collaborate with top crypto security firms and other wallets. The team emphasized that most security hardening efforts will not be directly visible in the user experience, but are crucial for self-custodial wallets, and that security should be the top priority for all market participants at present.
A vulnerability analysis published by the GoPlus Chinese community reported that on October 29 (UTC), a user asset theft incident occurred on the Polymarket international site. The RUM script of the third-party performance monitoring provider DebugBear was compromised via a supply chain attack, with malicious code injected into user pages to abuse trading and signing permissions for asset transfers.
Polymarket announced that trading has now been fully restored and that all affected traders will be fully compensated.
Odaily report: Shana Bautista, Polymarket's Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations, stated that Polymarket has launched investigations into dozens of trades involving the U.S. midterm elections, focusing on identifying potential insider trading and market manipulation. A person familiar with the investigations, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that at least two of the cases have been referred to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Bautista said Polymarket has assembled a 16-person investigations team and deployed a new election trading monitoring system ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The system integrates data from social media, the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC), crypto companies, banking partners, and other public information sources, generating hundreds of anomalous trading alerts each day. She noted that the investigations team can identify potential manipulation through behavioral patterns such as concentrated trading across multiple accounts within a short period and different wallets using the same device ID. (U.S. National Public Radio)
a Polymarket contract on Israel's prime ministerial election has surpassed $55 million in trading volume, with Gadi Eisenkot at a 55% probability of winning and Benjamin Netanyahu at 29%. Eisenkot, a former Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces and current leader of the Yashar party, is the subject of a contract on who will become prime minister following the parliamentary election on October 27, 2026.Traditional polling shows Eisenkot's bloc leading Netanyahu's bloc by 6 seats, but no single party currently holds a majority. The Israel Democracy Institute has called on the Central Elections Committee to treat prediction market odds as polling and to restrict the publication of related results before elections. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to monitoring by PPP prediction market tool, the Polymarket "Predict.fun will issue a token before October 31" probability has risen to 22%, up 10% in 24 hours; the probability of issuing a token before November 30 has risen to 97%, up 14% in 24 hours.According to the resolution rules, if Predict.fun officially launches a governance token before the specified date, the market will resolve to Yes; otherwise, it will resolve to No. The token must have been officially launched and be publicly transferable and tradable; merely publishing an issuance announcement does not meet the resolution criteria. Resolution is primarily based on Predict.fun's official information, while also referencing the reporting consensus of credible media.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
Monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch" probability has risen to 74%, up 60% in 24 hours.If Predict.fun's governance token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $800 million one day after its launch, this prediction event will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable to be considered officially launched.FDV will be calculated based on the total token supply multiplied by the token price."One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the day following the token's launch.This prediction event will use the most liquid price source as the basis for resolution.If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) fails to launch a token before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, this prediction event will resolve to "No".
Odaily reports: Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket expanded ahead of the US midterm elections in November, with combined monthly trading volume reaching $53 billion in July, more than double the $26 billion recorded in May, with trading concentrated primarily in sports.Political trading accounted for a relatively small share, with Polymarket averaging about $2 billion per month this year and Kalshi under $300 million; as of July, trading volume around which party controls the House and Senate had exceeded $30 million.The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had previously prohibited Kalshi from listing congressional control contracts and at one point proposed classifying election contracts as gambling. The agency withdrew the relevant proposal in February and on June 10 published a structured event contract framework proposal that would not classify elections as gambling. Kalshi launched its Midterms Hub the same month, displaying traders' implied probabilities for individual districts alongside polling averages.Chuck Todd, former NBC News political director and former host of Meet the Press, will host the NEXTPredict summit in New York on October 22–23. He said he hopes to understand the extent to which pollsters and prediction markets need and influence each other, and whether trading is used for hedging or entertainment. Research by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that a $3,500 bet could move 97% of midterm election-related market prices by at least 5 cents; Morgan Stanley, after studying more than 72 million Kalshi trades, found that prices closely tracked outcomes. (Decrypt)
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Papertrade FDV above $100 million one day after launch" odds have dropped to 45%, down 40% in 24 hours.If Papertrade's token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above the specified amount one day after launch, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No."Only official tokens formally issued by Papertrade after the creation of this market are eligible. Stablecoins, meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens do not count.A token must be publicly tradable to be considered officially launched.FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price."One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the day following the token's launch.The market will use the most liquid available price source as the basis for settlement.If Papertrade fails to issue a token before 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to "No."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
Odaily reports: Pump.fun announced on X that it has partnered with PreStocks to launch a Pre-IPO token trading service. Users can now trade tokens related to private companies on Pump.fun and use these tokens as trading pair assets to issue new tokens.The first batch of supported companies includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril, Neuralink, Figure AI, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Oura, totaling 8 companies.This feature is powered by PreStocks. The related tokens are not equivalent to holding actual equity in the corresponding companies.
Pump.fun's official Twitter account (@Pumpfun) announced that Pump.fun has launched its PreStocks feature, allowing users to issue tokens on the platform and pair them with Pre-IPO tokens from companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril, Neuralink, Figure AI, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Oura, while also enabling direct trading of these Pre-IPO tokens. The feature is powered by PreStocks.
Odaily reports: Crypto.com's prediction market trading platform and Novig filed suit against Missouri officials in federal court last Friday, asking a judge to bar the state from taking enforcement action against their sports event contracts. Previously, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters in September to six platforms, including both companies, requiring them to stop offering sports event contracts to state residents within 30 days or obtain a state license and pay a 10% tax. Crypto.com said the cease-and-desist letter was mistakenly sent to Foris DAX, Inc. rather than the trading platform itself; the Missouri Constitution only permits the issuance of two mobile sports prediction licenses, and both have already been granted, making obtaining a license unfeasible.The two platforms argue that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempts state law. Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog, which also received cease-and-desist letters in September, had not filed suit in Missouri federal court as of Sunday. Because multiple U.S. federal appellate courts are divided on whether federal law preempts state regulation, Novig has asked the court to issue a preliminary injunction during the litigation to maintain the status quo.
Odaily reports: A survey covering 4,506 adults across the United States shows that most respondents oppose betting on U.S. elections and other government actions through prediction markets. 69% of Democratic respondents and 61% of Republican respondents opposed betting on election results. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5.The prediction market industry, driven by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allows users to bet on U.S. elections, changes in government policy, and sporting events. The related business has triggered multiple regulatory lawsuits between state governments and federal agencies.The survey shows that 43% of respondents oppose betting on professional sports events, while 29% expressed support. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for the industry to be regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 39 states and the District of Columbia have submitted amicus briefs, stating that the dispute between federal and state regulators has evolved into a nationwide jurisdictional conflict. (Cointelegraph)
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Papertrade FDV above $100 million one day after launch" probability has risen to 80%, up 27% in 24 hours.If Papertrade's token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above the specified threshold one day after launch, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No."Only official tokens formally issued by Papertrade after the creation of this market are eligible. Stablecoins, meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens do not qualify.The token must be publicly tradable to be considered officially launched.FDV is calculated as the token's total supply multiplied by the token price."One day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the day following the token's launch.The market will use the most liquid available price source as the basis for resolution.If Papertrade fails to issue a token before 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to "No."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the advantage.
According to CoinShares' market report, the US September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.6% market expectation. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% during the month, accounting for roughly half of the overall increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. In the same period, US September retail sales increased 0.8% month-over-month, beating the ~0.3% forecast, while August data was revised up to 1.3%. However, retail sales excluding gasoline only grew by 0.2%, down from 1.0% in August. The report pointed out that inflation remains elevated and economic demand continues to show resilience, driving a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy that weighed on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Data showed that market sentiment notably weakened following the CPI release, with global digital asset investment products recording $434 million in outflows so far this week. Regarding interest rate expectations, as of October 15, Polymarket data indicated a roughly 75% probability that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at its October meeting and about a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Following the CPI release, futures markets shifted markedly toward a hawkish stance, with expectations of another rate hike within the year rising significantly.
Odaily reports: The U.S. September Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6.3% year-over-year and 1.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate reaching its highest since December 2022 and the month-over-month increase being the largest since March 2022. Energy costs accelerated, with gasoline producer prices rising 20.3% month-over-month.According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, final demand goods prices rose 2.6% month-over-month, with final demand energy prices up 10.8%; final demand services prices rose 0.8%, with transportation and warehousing costs up 3.4%. During the same period, U.S. September retail sales grew 0.8% month-over-month, below August's 1.3%.Polymarket data shows that traders estimate a 72% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, and a 28% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, with related market trading volume approaching $41.5 million. In September, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.After the report was released, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $81,000 and touched an intraday low of $80,154 on Bitstamp; it fell 3.4% on the day and 4% over the past two weeks. (Bitcoin.com News)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "StandX will issue a token before the end of 2026" probability has dropped to 3%, a 58% decline in 24 hours.If StandX officially launches a token before 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title, the prediction market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No."Only tokens officially issued by StandX qualify; stablecoins, meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens do not count.The token must have been publicly launched and be actually tradable; merely publishing an announcement does not meet the resolution criteria.Resolution is primarily based on StandX official information, with reference to consensus reports from credible media.Previous news: StandX announced it will not issue a token, and perpetual contracts will enter reduce-only mode starting October 20.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "Will the Fed keep rates unchanged in October?", an account (0x086934317f099d0279493b3f73a954ee896114f1) with cumulative profits exceeding $57,000 purchased $61,200 on the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October, with an average entry price of 79.3¢ and a purchase of 82,169.6 shares.According to the settlement rules, the prediction result is based on the FOMC meeting statement from October 27 to 28, and will be settled according to the actual adjustment magnitude of the upper limit of the federal funds target rate range. If the adjustment magnitude is not among the existing options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points; if the relevant statement has not been released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the event will be settled as "unchanged."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "Next Fable model will be released before October 17" probability has risen to 70%, up 36% in 24 hours.According to the resolution rules, if Anthropic releases Fable 5.2 or a higher version model to the public before the specified date (US Eastern Time), this market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No".The qualifying model name or identifier must contain "Fable" and have a version number no lower than 5.2, including subsequent versions such as Fable 6. Public beta versions or waitlists open for public registration both qualify, but closed beta tests and private access do not count.Resolution will primarily be based on Anthropic's official announcements and official website information, with reference to credible media reports.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the advantage.