News linked to both this project and an event.
Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "o1 TGE market cap exceeding $400 million on day 2" on Polymarket has risen to 89%, up 81% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of the o1 governance token one day after its launch. If the FDV of the o1 governance token at 16:00 Eastern Time on the day following its launch is higher than the stated value in the title, it will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No."The token must be publicly available, transferable, and tradable to be considered fully launched. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price, with the price source being the most liquid source at the time. If o1 fails to launch a token before 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will settle as "No."Previous news: o1.exchange completes $4.2 million financing, co-led by Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAOThe Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing occurs.
According to CoinDesk, the Kentucky Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting services without proper licensing in the state. The complaint also alleges that the relevant platforms and their partners failed to provide gambling addiction support resources as required by state law.
Odaily Odaily, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said in an interview with FOX: "Honestly, when I think of our competitors, it's not Polymarket I think of the most, but some other platforms. We are surrounded by a group of competitors."In a follow-up interview, Tarek primarily mentioned CME and Robinhood. CME previously assisted gambling giant FanDuel in launching its own prediction market product, while Robinhood has also launched its in-house prediction market, Rothera. Additionally, Tarek also mentioned DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Will Anthropic's valuation reach $1.1 trillion before June 30" has risen to 67%, up 30% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on Anthropic's private market valuation data released by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). If Anthropic's NPM Price reaches or exceeds the specified amount between the market creation and June 30, 2026, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No".Anthropic's latest funding round was completed on May 28, achieving a post-money valuation of $965 billion after its $65 billion Series H round, just one step away from common short-term thresholds like $1 trillion. With this prediction market set to settle on June 30, traders are monitoring secondary market liquidity and whether any new primary financing or tender offer activity could push its implied valuation higher within the remaining window. Recent estimates show Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is approaching $47 billion, continuing to support investor demand. However, no new funding announcements have emerged since late May, and IPO preparations remain longer-term.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket founder posted on X platform to celebrate June 17th as the 6th anniversary, stating "I am truly grateful to be engaged in this career that means so much to me. Seeing the world gradually catch up to this crazy idea called 'information markets' is truly breathtaking. But we still have a long way to go."According to Dune data, on the 6th anniversary of polymarket's launch, the platform's cumulative trading volume has exceeded $88 billion.
Odaily Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have announced plans to accelerate the deployment of anti-fraud measures during the World Cup to combat potential fraudulent groups, while continuing to expand the coverage of tradable events.According to reports, both companies are introducing more real-world events into prediction markets to enhance user engagement and market liquidity. As transaction volumes continue to grow, related fraudulent activities have also increased. It is reported that Kalshi's annualized revenue reached approximately $1.5 billion in May of this year. (The Information)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
According to Cointelegraph, Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank announced that it may restrict or suspend accounts found to have deposits or withdrawals linked to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. Bitbank stated that affected accounts may be unable to log in and will be restricted from depositing, withdrawing, and trading.
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
investment firm Bernstein has released a report indicating that the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in North America, is expected to drive up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital.Bernstein analysts pointed out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercially launch its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera. Institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, on the Myriad platform, Spain and France have the highest odds of winning. (Decrypt)
digital asset platform Gate has released its May 2026 transparency report. The report indicates that multi-asset trading and prediction markets are becoming key growth engines for the platform. As of the end of May, Gate had listed 605 CFD trading assets, covering multiple categories including stocks, indices, forex, metals, and commodities, ranking among the top globally among crypto trading platforms in terms of asset count. Additionally, Gate Stocks allows users to trade over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs from major U.S. markets using USDT, covering the main U.S. securities trading markets and liquidity networks. The platform's direct IPO first-phase project, SpaceX, saw意向 subscription amounts exceed $100 million.Meanwhile, the platform continues to deepen its presence in the prediction market sector. Gate has deeply integrated Polymarket, launching features such as smart money tracking, wallet monitoring, top holdings, profit/loss statistics, and AI analysis. As the first CEX platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate continues to strengthen its advantage as a prediction market gateway, maintaining a leading position in user participation scale, market activity, and ecosystem influence.Furthermore, Gate's flagship event, WCTC S8, successfully concluded in May, attracting over 80,000 participants and 9,500 registered teams. The cumulative total weighted trading volume for the event exceeded $50 billion, with the CFD segment alone accounting for a cumulative trading volume of over $140 billion, reflecting the strong growth momentum of traditional financial assets within crypto trading scenarios. As stablecoins, RWA, asset tokenization, and prediction markets emerge as new growth engines for the industry, Gate will continue to expand its business layout in stocks, forex, and IPOs, aiming to build a comprehensive one-stop global digital financial services platform.
CNBC recently covered Kalshi Perpetual Contracts, noting that trading volume surpassed $1 billion within the first week of launch. Kalshi's crypto division head John Wang subsequently posted on X: "Kalshi Perps hit $1 billion in trading volume in the first week, and the product hasn't even been publicly released yet." He also pointed out that it took prediction markets 3.5 years to reach a similar volume scale. Polymarket team member Mustafa Aljadery appeared in the comments section to congratulate, while also inquiring about the Perpetual Contracts' OI (open interest) data, insinuating that Kalshi's trading volume might have been manipulated.Additionally, many community members in the comments expressed doubts about this data, emphasizing that it could be volume generated from zero-fee or leveraged trading. Some even pointed out that Kalshi's OI data stood at only around $4.5 million.
: Polymarket’s official developer account posted on platform X, stating that the combo (combos) feature is about to be launched, and the relevant documentation for the feature has been published.
Byreal has officially launched its on-chain prediction market product, Byreal Predict. This product connects to Polymarket’s order book and liquidity, enabling users to trade predictions on real-world sports events. Byreal Predict initially covers major events including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the NBA Finals, and Major League Baseball (MLB), supporting trades on outcomes such as individual match results, group-stage qualification, and tournament champions. Future updates will introduce AI-powered prediction market analytics, automated trading, and referral commission features.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Claude Mythos model release date being June 10" is currently at 74%, up 24% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability for "Release before June 12" stands at 83%; "Release before June 15" at 89%; "Release before June 22" at 95%; "Release before June 30" at 94%; and "Release before July 31" at 99%.Previously reported, tech journalist Alex Heath revealed that Anthropic will release a "public version of Mythos" tomorrow. The company plans to rename and slightly adjust Mythos, releasing it under the name "Fable 5."Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing occurs.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Israel will close its airspace before June 30" has risen to 64%, a 24H increase of 52%; additionally, the probability of "Israel will close its airspace before June 15" has risen to 59%, a 24H increase of 52%.Closing airspace refers to the closure of all of Israel's civilian airspace, or a closure covering most of Israel's civilian airspace, resulting in flight cancellations or a complete suspension of commercial aviation, including commercial flights transiting, arriving at, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply to flights nationwide in Israel, or to a qualifying major portion of Israel's airspace. Limited-scope flight cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops, or individual regional closures do not meet the conditions for a "Yes" settlement.If there are a few exceptions within the context of a large-scale closure, such as permitting some pre-approved flights to pass, this does not affect the closure being deemed valid. Warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions issued by airlines or countries other than Israel cannot serve as sufficient basis for a "Yes" settlement.After the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire on April 8, Iran today launched missiles at Israel again after a two-month interval. Trump stated that his advice to Iran is, since the missiles have been launched, they should now return to the negotiating table and reach an agreement. Trump also said he will call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to tell him not to retaliate.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event titled "Was Zcash's Orchard privacy pool confirmed to have been exploited?"On June 4, Zcash's core development team revealed that they had deployed an emergency network upgrade to fix a critical cryptographic vulnerability in the Orchard privacy pool. This flaw could have potentially allowed a malicious attacker to arbitrarily forge unlimited amounts of ZEC. Due to the vulnerability's characteristic that "it is impossible to cryptographically prove whether it was exploited in the past," independent support organization Shielded Labs subsequently proposed on June 5 to deploy a new privacy pool during the NU7 upgrade at the end of July. They also suggested implementing strict "Turnstile-accounting" audits for tokens exiting Orchard to investigate whether any forged tokens exist. According to the settlement rules for this prediction event, if before December 31, 2026, official sources or mainstream credible media confirm that the vulnerability was effectively exploited on the mainnet before being patched, the event will settle as YES.Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
as prediction market trading volume grows, institutional capital is entering this sector. Quantitative trading firms such as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are forming dedicated prediction market trading teams, recently posting relevant job openings to focus on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. These teams aim to capture pricing deviation profits through cross-platform arbitrage, market microstructure arbitrage, and news-driven trading strategies. Industry insiders believe that as the prediction market expands and on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid plan to launch prediction market products, a competition centered on latency, liquidity, and cross-platform efficiency has already begun. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 53%, a 24-hour increase of 36%.Market rules: If between 17:35 on November 24, 2025, and 23:59 on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the lowest price (Low) of any 1-minute candlestick of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair reaches or falls below the price stated in the title, this market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Settlement is based solely on the 1-minute candlestick data of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.In previous news, the privacy coin Zcash disclosed and fixed a critical security vulnerability that could have been exploited by malicious miners to transfer over 25,000 ZEC (approximately $6.5 million) from the deprecated Sprout privacy pool. Officials stated that the vulnerability had existed since July 2020 but was not actually exploited, and user funds remained safe at all times. The development team has released version v6.12.0 to complete the fix, and major mining pools have already upgraded their deployments.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.