News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, supporting prediction market platform Kalshi and pushing back against a lawsuit previously filed by the state of Ohio.Ohio argues that Kalshi's prediction market operations constitute unlicensed sports betting, while the CFTC contends that these markets fall under federal regulatory authority and that states have no right to overstep those boundaries.CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the Ohio district court's previous interpretation of the CFTC's jurisdiction was "too narrow" and hopes the appellate court will correct this.Over the past few months, the CFTC has sued states including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York to defend its regulatory authority over prediction markets. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gain increasing popularity, the dispute over the regulatory boundary between federal and state governments continues to widen.
According to Decrypt, MoonPay has announced the acquisition of AI trading startup Dawn Labs and officially launched its AI-native trading product, Dawn CLI. This platform enables users to build and execute automated trading strategies via natural language prompts—no development or quantitative trading expertise required. Initially, the product supports the prediction market platform Polymarket, with plans to expand to additional trading platforms and asset types. Dawn CLI employs a local, non-custodial wallet and auditable strategy code to mitigate potential risks associated with AI agents executing trades. This acquisition marks MoonPay’s latest move in building AI infrastructure, following its earlier launch of the stablecoin debit card MoonAgents Card for AI agents, an open-source wallet standard, and its acquisition of crypto key management firm Sodot.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the event "Trump visiting China on May 13" on Polymarket has surged to 97%, up 36% in 24 hours, with trading volume exceeding $2.58 million.The event date is settled according to US Eastern Time. The primary basis for this market information is official US government information, official Trump information, or information published on his verified social media accounts (e.g., ), but other reliable reports will also be referenced.This morning, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced.
Polymarket 公布功能更新最新进展，包括推出延迟垃圾请求（latency spam）缓解措施以保障订单下达与取消操作，修复“余额/授权不足”报错问题，另一个影响限价买单的核心问题预计将在未来几天完成修复。此外，Polymarket 表示已识别并封禁多个“幽灵成交（ghost-fill）”账户集群，相关账户均早于充值钱包（deposit wallet）系统上线前创建，一旦出现“幽灵成交”行为的账户都会进行识别与封禁，而充值钱包系统也将阻止违规账户继续批量创建新账户，未来一周还将继续发布更多更新以解决此前遗留问题。
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event titled "When will the Trump administration declassify the next batch of UFO files."According to information on the U.S. government's official website, the Trump administration has released UAP-related records through the war.gov/ufo page. U.S. media reports indicate that the Pentagon published the first batch of previously undisclosed UAP/UFO-related documents, images, videos, and reports on May 8, 2026.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the Trump administration declassifies any previously undisclosed documents related to extraterrestrial life and/or Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date, the corresponding market will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be resolved as "No."In this market, "Trump administration" includes the Executive Office of the President during President Trump's term, as well as all executive departments, agencies, and their subordinate offices under the jurisdiction of presidential authority, including the Department of Defense and its constituent entities.Cases where declassification is merely announced but not actually completed within the timeframe specified by the market will not count toward the settlement conditions.The primary basis for determining whether declassification has occurred is official U.S. government information, but consensus from credible media reports may also be considered as a reference.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Mustafa, a member of the Polymarket official team, posted on platform X that Polymarket has launched a $2 million liquidity rewards program for sports markets, which will continue over the next few weeks. At the same time, the platform will also roll out additional liquidity incentives for other markets in the coming days.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows a new prediction event on Polymarket: “Will US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump’s visit to China?”. Currently, the probability of reaching a permanent peace agreement is temporarily reported at 7%.Previously, in mid-April, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding Trump’s visit to China, but there has been no recent progress on the matter.The settlement rule for this event is: If the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump’s visit to China, the market will be resolved as “Yes”. Otherwise, the market will be resolved as “No”.If, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, neither a qualifying peace agreement has been reached nor has Trump’s visit to China occurred, the market will be resolved as “No”.A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or an agreement using similar wording that explicitly indicates the permanent end of military hostilities between the US and Iran. Agreements explicitly designated as temporary or that do not include the permanent end of military hostilities between the US and Iran do not qualify.A qualifying agreement is considered to have been reached if any of the following conditions are met:1. The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g., a treaty or multi-article agreement) that meets the criteria above.2. Both the US and Iranian governments publicly and explicitly confirm that a qualifying agreement has been finalized. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other final statements that do not constitute a finalized qualifying agreement will not be recognized.In this market, “visit” is defined as Trump physically entering the land or territorial waters of the listed country. Whether Trump enters the country’s airspace during the market period is irrelevant to the final outcome.The primary basis for determining whether a peace agreement has been reached is official information from the US and Iranian governments, but consensus from credible reports may also be consulted. The primary source for Trump’s visit to China is official information from the US government, as well as official information posted by Trump himself or his verified social media accounts. However, consensus from other credible reports will also be considered.Odaily Seer continuously follows the prediction market, seeing changes before the pricing.
prediction market Predict.fun has launched a new prediction event titled "When Will Polymarket Launch Its Official Token," with a current trading volume of $546,800. Among the predictions, the probability of Polymarket launching its official token before June 30, 2027, is currently at 88%; before March 31, 2027, at 77%; before December 31, 2026, at 55%; before September 30, 2026, at 39%; and before June 30, 2026, at 9%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If Polymarket officially launches its official token before the date indicated in the title (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be resolved as "No."Even if the token launched by Polymarket initially has no utility and is not explicitly labeled as a "governance" token, it qualifies as long as it is promoted and presented as the official token of the Polymarket product.The token must be publicly and actively transferable and tradable. A mere announcement does not meet the criteria. Tokens that are only claimable also do not meet the requirements.ERC-1155 or ERC-20 tokens used to represent CTF shares or other positions of users within the product's internal markets, as well as any dollar-pegged collateral tokens, are not counted for settlement.Sources include official statements from Polymarket (including blog posts, social media channels, or documentation). If necessary, credible third-party reports may also be referenced.Previously, Mustafa (@mustafap0ly), a member of the Polymarket official team, hinted in community interactions today that progress related to the POLY token may be coming soon.
Josh Stevens, the new Vice President of Engineering at Polymarket, stated on platform X that with the launch of the Deposit Wallets feature, the proportion of ghost fills has dropped from a peak of 30% to 0.17%, and will continue to trend toward 0% throughout the day.
Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has officially launched its Deposit Wallets feature. Newly registered users will automatically receive a dedicated deposit address. As this feature rolls out fully, the existing “ghost fills” issue is expected to gradually diminish. Meanwhile, the team continues to monitor system performance to ensure stable operation.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on its proposed rules for prediction markets, reflecting intensifying regulatory discussion in this space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the proposed regulatory framework, viewing it as conducive to industry standardization and development. However, some stakeholders have called for stricter regulation and enforcement measures to mitigate potential risks. Market analysts note that this comment period highlights substantial disagreement regarding the compliance boundaries, product classification, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets. The finalization of these rules may thus become a pivotal factor shaping the industry’s future development.
data from Predictefy shows that since Hyperliquid launched its event contract (prediction market) products, the trading volume of Bitcoin price-related event contracts on the platform within the same timeframe has exceeded that of similar markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and all other prediction platforms.Previously, Hyperliquid launched its event contract market yesterday, with the first market being a daily settlement BTC price performance market.
: Polymarket official Ale posted on X to disclose platform updates, stating:1. We are making final preparations for the launch of the "Deposit Wallet" feature to fix the "ghost fills" issue. It is expected to be released at 12:30 UTC on May 4th (which corresponds to 20:30 Beijing time). There may be a maintenance downtime of up to approximately 30 minutes during this period.2. The remaining liquidity rewards for the migration date (April 28th) have been distributed. Participants should be able to see them on the rewards page. Rewards will be distributed as usual at 00:00 UTC.3. Earlier today, due to the system processing historical rewards and recalculating new rewards, rewards were not accumulated normally for about 40 minutes. The issue has now been fixed, and real-time liquidity reward accumulation has resumed normally.4. The team has noticed an increase in "not enough balance/allowance" error reports and is working on a fix.5. Addressing the PnL (Profit and Loss) display issues some users experience after converting or merging positions, the team is developing a patch expected to go live around Wednesday.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Powell leaving the Fed Board of Governors before May 30" has plummeted, now at 9%, down 25% in 24 hours; the probability of "Powell leaving the Fed Board of Governors before December 31" has dropped to 66%, down 11% in 24 hours.The rules for this event contract are: If Federal Reserve Chair Powell is no longer a member of the Board of Governors at any point during the target date (by 11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "No." If Powell steps down as Fed Chair but remains a member of the Board of Governors, this does not meet the "Yes" condition. The judgment is based on information released by the U.S. government, but a consensus of credible reports may also serve as the basis.At this morning's press conference, Powell stated that after stepping down as Chair, he would remain on the Fed Board of Governors for "some time" and pledged to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent responded, saying, "If Powell remains on the Board of Governors as a Fed Governor, that would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision goes against tradition."The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing the changes before they are priced in.
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Printr public sale raising over $4 million" has fallen to 63%, down over 30% in a day, with a trading volume of nearly $3.26 million.Printr is a cross-chain token issuance platform that supports users and AI agents in token issuance, trading, and staking across multiple blockchain environments. It is currently deployed on 8 blockchains including Solana, Base, BNB Chain, and Ethereum, offering features such as customizable fee structures, cross-chain trading, and staking incentive mechanisms.Data indicates that the project has currently raised over $2.46 million, with approximately 35 hours remaining until the fundraising concludes.The Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
as of the end of April, crypto trading aggregation platform XBIT ranked 4th on the official Polymarket Builder leaderboard with a monthly trading volume of $36.12 million.The project was officially launched in early April, and XBIT has recently passed the official Polymarket Builder review.Currently, XBIT has launched two core categories: Prediction Market and Perpetual Contracts (Perp DEX). Its next step is to launch a leveraged prediction market, further enriching the aggregated trading experience.
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
According to Dark Web Informer, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is suspected of having been hacked. The threat actor “xorcat” posted over 300,000 data records and a corresponding exploit toolkit on a well-known cybercrime forum. The data extraction occurred on April 27, 2026. Reportedly, the attacker extracted data via an undisclosed API endpoint, pagination bypasses, and misconfigured CORS settings in Polymarket Gamma and the CLOB API. The leaked data includes: - Full personal information for 10,000 users (including names, proxy wallets, and base addresses); - 4,111 comments; - 1,000 moderation reports (including 58 ETH addresses and administrator authentication address identifiers); - Metadata for 48,536 Gamma markets; - Constant-product market maker addresses for over 250,000 active CLOB markets; and - Social graph data for 9,000 followers. The toolkit contains proof-of-concept code for multiple vulnerabilities, including CVE-2025-62718 (Axios NO_PROXY bypass, CVSS 9.9, enabling server-side request forgery), CVE-2024-51479 (Next.js middleware authentication bypass, CVSS 7.5), and the aforementioned CORS misconfigurations. Additionally, the toolkit includes automated continuous data-extraction scripts and a comprehensive red-team report (including M