News linked to both this project and an event.
Paradis Labs stated on platform X that it is currently difficult to determine whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out. Most AI infrastructure-related stocks rose on the day, with SIVE, AEHR, and IQE gaining over 20%, and SNDK, MU, and AAOI rising over 10%.Paradis Labs noted that regardless of today's returns, gaining more clarity over the coming weeks will be more important: On July 22, GOOGL will release its Q2 earnings, which will serve as the first formal indicator of annual capital expenditure for approximately $750 billion in hyperscale cloud providers; On July 22-23, AMD will hold the Advancing AI event, where wafer foundry loading, advanced packaging, and laser-type demand roadmaps through 2027 can be observed; On July 23, INTC will report Q2 earnings, with 18A yield and foundry commitments potentially being major variables, while also providing insights into U.S. domestic manufacturing and packaging momentum; On July 23, IBM will report Q2 earnings, and with its market cap already down ~25%, the market's reaction to any guidance shortfall is worth watching; On July 24, 10% global tariffs expire, and new tariffs are expected to be imposed on dozens of countries, which could act as a stagflationary factor and influence the Fed's rate hike narrative; On July 27, Kimi K3's complete weights will be released; On July 28-29, the FOMC meeting will convene, with experts and Polymarket expecting rates to remain unchanged. It is noteworthy that a rate hike or a signal of a rate hike would represent the first true institutional shift for the AI trade; On July 29-30, META, MSFT, and AMZN will report earnings, providing more capital expenditure data; On July 30, the U.S. will release June core PCE.Paradis Labs also indicated that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be reached at any time. A 10-day proposal is currently on the table, while attacks continue. A formally confirmed ceasefire would be beneficial for oil prices and bullish for semiconductor stocks. The above is a high-level timeline of the key upcoming events, all of which will impact semiconductor stocks to varying degrees. When hyperscale cloud providers report earnings, AI capital expenditure will be the most important factor.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "CLARITY Bill Signed into Law in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% in 24 hours and 10% in a week.The market rules are as follows: If the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act of 2025" (HR3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". The primary sources of information are official announcements from the U.S. Congress website and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt has officially stated today that he will remain in Washington to push for the passage of the CLARITY Act. Previously, there were reports that he would leave before the Senate vote, but that news has now been overturned.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% on Monday morning. The probability of a closure before September 30 once rose to 26%. The Yemeni Houthi group, Ansar Allah, has announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt the flow of Saudi crude oil exports. The relevant passage handles the transit of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The outcome of this prediction contract will be determined based on maritime trade flow data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform, PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is equal to or less than 10 on any day between the contract's creation and its expiration date, the contract will be resolved as "Yes."
according to the latest in-depth report by U.Today, as the prediction market continues to heat up, sports events are becoming a key engine driving industry growth. As the world's first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, Gate Polymarket significantly lowers the barrier to user participation by offering a trading experience with no wallet, no cross-chain, and no gas fees. Users can directly use USDT from their Gate accounts to make predictions without the need for complex on-chain operations. Currently, Gate Polymarket has become one of the largest traffic gateways for Polymarket. As of July 16, its cumulative trading volume has exceeded $622 million. On July 6, its weekly trading volume surpassed $100 million, and it ranks first in Polymarket's daily, weekly, and monthly trading volume across all channels.The report points out that the 2026 World Cup is becoming one of the key catalysts driving the rapid growth of the prediction market. The World Cup Hub, built around the event, integrates match schedules, standings, real-time scores, match alerts, historical data, and prediction trading. Sports predictions continue to attract a large number of users, further boosting Gate Polymarket’s activity and market liquidity.U.Today believes that Gate has not only lowered the barrier to entry for the prediction market but also further refined the product experience. It has launched innovative features such as a dual-mode trading interface, AI event analysis, smart money tracking, real-time fund flow alerts, and event contracts, helping users discover market opportunities more efficiently. By combining the convenient experience of a centralized exchange with the deep integration of Polymarket’s decentralized prediction market, Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market and driving on-chain prediction markets toward a more open, efficient, and mainstream stage of development.
Odaily, July 20 - According to official sources, Gate has launched the Esports Peak Trading Season from 16:00 on July 20 to 16:00 on August 10 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During the event, users who register and participate in designated prediction trading for esports events in the Gate Polymarket esports section can enjoy newcomer benefits, weekly trading tasks, and the prediction trading leaderboard to share generous rewards. After the event, the top 100 users by cumulative prediction trading volume who meet the corresponding trading volume requirements can also share a 50,000 USDT leaderboard reward, with the 1st place winner eligible to receive up to 10,000 USDT. Currently, the Gate Prediction Market has launched prediction markets for popular events such as the 2026 KeSPA Cup "League of Legends" Chevor DRX vs. KT team, and more exciting events can be found on the platform for participation.According to data from Polymarket Builders, the Gate Prediction Market ranked first among Polymarket channels in single-day trading volume on July 19, and has also maintained a leading position in cumulative trading volume over the past week and month, ranking first among Polymarket channels. As the first centralized trading platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate has become a key entry point for users to participate in prediction markets. Users can enter Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage and use USDT in their accounts to conveniently trade in prediction markets for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining more reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, providing users with prediction trading experiences covering diverse events such as popular esports competitions.
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year to 35% on July 17, recovering from a low of 24% on July 13. The contract had approached 74% in May, before falling to 48% in June as negotiations dragged on. Senate Republicans plan to release the final text of the CLARITY Act after meeting with US President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said the updated text will be released after the meeting, with the target for Senate floor consideration set for the week of July 20. The bill needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democratic votes in support. Democratic negotiators say the draft to be submitted to the chamber is not the version they agreed to. The dispute centers on ethics clauses involving Trump's business interests in the crypto industry.
: Prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that all Up/Down markets now feature a Maker order rebate mechanism. Users who complete trades via limit orders can receive a 25% rebate on Maker fees.Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's Maker rebate offers two key advantages that are more direct: a higher rebate rate, and real-time settlement immediately after the trade, without waiting for finalization.For high-frequency traders, professional market makers, and users who frequently employ limit orders, real-time rebates allow for faster capital release, reducing the continuous impact of fees on trading profits. The higher rebate rate also means that as trading frequency and volume increase, the actual cost savings become more significant.This mechanism now covers all Up/Down markets on predict.fun. Users do not need to register or apply separately; rebates for qualifying orders will be automatically credited to the account upon execution.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
: Celestia Labs has announced the acquisition of Sovereign Labs, a developer of high-performance blockchain frameworks. Since 2021, Sovereign Labs has been deeply involved in the Celestia ecosystem, with its framework providing underlying support for projects such as the cross-chain bridge Relay Protocol and the high-performance perpetual contract trading platform Bullet. Following this acquisition, Celestia Labs' technical capabilities will extend from Layer 1 to the execution and application layers, positioning it as a full-stack custom blockchain development partner for enterprises. As projects like Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Robinhood have chosen to build their own chains, enterprise demand for full-stack blockchain infrastructure is growing.
Odaily, Polymarket-based DeFi startup Gondor has announced the launch of Gondor v1, claiming it will be the first margin account product for Polymarket. The version is expected to go live publicly in September.Gondor v1 will allow users to manage cross-margining across their entire Polymarket portfolio, using the full portfolio as collateral for loans. Users can then use the credit line to purchase more prediction market shares, achieving higher capital efficiency and leverage operations.This marks an expansion from the beta version Gondor launched seven months ago. The previous product primarily allowed users to take out loans against individual Polymarket positions, while v1 expands the collateral scope to the entire portfolio.Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically operate on a full collateral model, requiring users to deposit the entire risk amount upfront and lock up funds until the event is settled. Gondor aims to unlock this locked capital through portfolio margining and lending mechanisms, allowing users to gain additional liquidity and continue placing bets without immediately selling their positions.
Gate Predictions Market has officially launched a real-time alert feature. By monitoring large buy and sell orders in the market in real-time, it helps users quickly gain insights into capital flows, shifts in market sentiment, and potential trading opportunities, further enhancing the efficiency of event trading decisions. Users can experience this feature after upgrading the Gate App to version v8.27.0. Without needing to check event order books one by one, they can centrally grasp major capital movements in the market through the "Alerts" list. Additionally, the feature supports filtering by dimensions such as buy/sell direction, transaction amount thresholds, and event categories. It also displays core information including trading users, event markets, trading direction, and transaction amounts, and allows users to customize alert subscriptions to receive in-app notifications immediately when qualifying large transactions occur.This feature launch enhances Gate Predictions Market's data analysis and strategy assistance capabilities, working in conjunction with the previously introduced "Smart Money" feature. Users can not only track capital movements in real-time but also combine this with the historical trading, holdings, and profit performance of top traders to obtain more valuable market references. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate continuously enriches its predictions market product suite and has simultaneously launched World Cup-themed activities. The "World Cup Prediction King Tournament" offers a total prize pool of 100,000 USDT, while the "World Cup Daily Featured Events" activity has a prize pool of 50,000 USDT, aiming to enhance user participation experience and strive to build a professional predictions market platform that integrates market discovery, strategy analysis, and trading participation.
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, for the prediction event "Anthropic's highest valuation this year," the probability of Anthropic reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation by the end of 2026 has risen to 78%, up 47% in 24 hours; the probability of reaching $2 trillion has risen to 37%, up 19% in 24 hours.On June 1, Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC, officially initiating its IPO process in the United States. Recently, research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that Anthropic is expected to achieve $1 billion in GAAP operating profit in the third quarter of 2026, with an operating profit margin of 6%.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay one step ahead, and seize the opportunity.https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31
the official interface shows Polymarket has launched a Perp trading feature. It currently supports 10 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, as well as Gold, Silver, SP500, NAS100, WTIOIL, and SPCX, with up to 20x leverage available.
Polymarket has integrated Spark, a Bitcoin Layer 2 payment protocol, allowing users to make instant deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.According to the report, Spark will provide underlying payment infrastructure for Polymarket, enabling users to deposit directly with BTC, with funds arriving in seconds. Compared to traditional on-chain Bitcoin transfers, which take 30 minutes to 1 hour for confirmation, this offers faster speed, lower costs, and greater privacy. This integration is also part of Polymarket's ongoing efforts to enhance the Bitcoin payment experience, following its earlier move to support Bitcoin deposits. (Digital Assets)
crypto KOL Ansem stated on X platform that BullpenFi is a one-stop trading terminal he co-founded. The platform supports trading Solana chain Meme coins, Hyperliquid perpetual contracts, Polymarket prediction markets, and stocks, and also supports trading in USD via wire transfer, ACH, or cryptocurrency, allowing users to complete registration with one click.
according to official sources, the self-custody Web3 wallet BM Wallet has launched its prediction market feature. Users can now directly participate in real-world event predictions within the wallet, settling entirely with stablecoins. Assets never need to be withdrawn, and private keys remain under the user's control at all times. This feature integrates the prediction market Polymarket, tapping into its deep liquidity. The initial phase centers on the World Cup, while also covering sectors such as cryptocurrency and politics. It is currently available in designated regions.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" has risen to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours.The rules state that a model explicitly named "GPT-5.6," or a model officially recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), will meet the settlement conditions. Task-specific models like GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are all included in this market. However, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not counted.Additionally, qualified models must be open to the public, including public beta or open waitlists; closed testing or private access only will not meet the requirements. The final settlement will primarily be based on OpenAI's official announcements and public information on its official website, and will be verified with mainstream media reports.On June 27, OpenAI launched the next-generation GPT-5.6 series of models, currently offering a limited preview to a select group of partners.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.