News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring indicates that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will SpaceX acquire Cursor," with the current probability of "Yes" at 74%.The event contract rules are as follows: If, before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, it is officially announced that Cursor will be acquired by SpaceX or will merge with it, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Mergers or acquisitions involving Cursor or its parent company (where applicable) with SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., are eligible. The outcome will be "Yes" as long as Cursor or SpaceX issues an announcement within the market's timeframe, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may also qualify as long as the acquiring company gains a controlling interest in the other company. "Controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically meaning over 50% equity, or equivalent control through voting rights and governance). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest are not eligible. The primary source for resolving this market will be official information from Cursor and SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reports may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before they are priced.
Odaily Pyth Network has announced a major strategic transformation: a comprehensive infrastructure upgrade and a shift in its economic model from token incentives to revenue-driven. According to two core proposals (OP-PIP-100, OP-PIP-103), Pythnet will be gradually shut down by 2026, with focus shifting to the next-generation underlying network Lazer. The OIS staking reward mechanism will be terminated (parameter Y set to 0), while the security slashing mechanism will be retained.Meanwhile, the PYTH Reserve has repurchased approximately 12 million PYTH using protocol revenue. Commercial products (Pyth Pro, Data Markets) have become the core growth drivers, with leading prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi already integrated. Institutional adoption continues to rise.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "Trump will continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," an account with an 81% win rate (@Pajamapants) purchased $40,000 in "Trump will not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," with an average opening price of 68.5¢.The specific rules are: If President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and formally announces the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, the market will ultimately resolve to "No." The qualifying statement must be clear and explicitly indicate that the U.S. has lifted, ended, will lift, or will end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, or use equivalent clear language explicitly stating that the blockade has stopped or will stop by the specified date (e.g., a statement explicitly indicating that U.S. Navy activities in the relevant area have ceased qualifies). Statements merely describing actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly stating the blockade is lifted are insufficient. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements by Donald Trump (e.g., posts on his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used. Note: This market will be resolved solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or maritime traffic resumes, in the absence of a qualifying announcement, will not be considered.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced plans to launch perpetual futures contracts. Polymarket posted a video on X on Tuesday stating it will list perpetual futures products tied to crypto tokens, U.S. equities, and commodities; Kalshi has a similar plan. Perpetual futures are crypto-native derivatives with no fixed expiration date. It remains unclear whether Polymarket will offer these products in the U.S. market, as such products face relatively strict regulatory restrictions in the United States.
Odaily News Polymarket announced in a post that it will launch a Perpetual Contracts (Perps) feature, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading with leverage on the platform in the future. Early access registration is now open.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Channel, a new market has been launched on Polymarket: "Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz to 'Trump Strait' by May 31st?" The current probability for "Yes" is temporarily reported at 6%, having dropped 31% in the past 24 hours. The total betting volume for this event currently exceeds $47,000.The contract rules for this event are as follows: The market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly announces that the United States will formally refer to the Strait of Hormuz as "Trump Strait" or "Trump Straits" or any equivalent name containing "Trump" by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official communications from Donald Trump, but consensus from credible reporting may also be used.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31st?" The current probability is 32%, up 16% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If U.S. President Donald Trump visits Pakistan before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 31, 2026, the market outcome will be "YES"; otherwise, it will be "NO". "Visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the land or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether Trump enters Pakistani airspace during the market timeframe does not affect the affirmative outcome. The primary sources of market information are official U.S. government information, Trump's official information, or verified social media account posts, but consensus from other credible reports will also be referenced.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
According to Polymarket’s prediction market page, the current probability of SpaceX’s IPO closing market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion stands at approximately 47%, making it the highest-probability option. The next most likely ranges are $1.8–2 trillion (18%), $1.6–1.8 trillion (13.7%), and $1.4–1.6 trillion (7.8%). Bitget launched its U.S. stock IPO subscription service, IPO Prime, on April 10, with initial support for stablecoin-based subscriptions for SpaceX, referencing an estimated valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. Additionally, Bitget will distribute two rounds of preSPAX airdrops to VIP users: the first round of 760 preSPAX tokens will be distributed tomorrow, and the second round of 190 preSPAX tokens will be distributed on April 20.