News linked to both this project and an event.
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel, the Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" has dropped to 25%, a 25% decrease in a single week. The total trading volume for this event has now approached $12 million.The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any date between the market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will be resolved as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be resolved as "No." Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.Previously, US and Iranian forces clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump stated earlier today that negotiations with Iran regarding a temporary peace agreement would "yield good results," and he faces a balancing act between potential criticism if Washington agrees to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but he postponed it as both sides continue to negotiate details, including Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz waterway (which may require demining first).The Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See changes before they are priced in.
prediction market Polymarket has released its platform update for this week, which includes: launching the World Cup page with feature testing; introducing perpetual contract functionality (featuring 5 traditional financial trading pairs and BTC perpetual contracts); optimizing CLOB performance with plans to release a version next week to address queue congestion issues; open-sourcing the SDK; launching a unified API; and implementing Gamma fixes and improvements (including stricter key set pagination and high-traffic read path indexing, as well as production correctness fixes for users, profiles, comments, and sports summaries).
Polymarket has stated the CLOB API is currently under maintenance, affecting trading functionality. The project team has identified the CLOB issue impacting trades and will restart the CLOB at 21:10 today to deploy the fix. During this period, there may be a brief window where order matching is temporarily unavailable or only limit orders are possible. Other services, including the website, Markets API, Polygon RPC, user authentication, and Sports API, will continue to operate normally.
the Polymarket development team stated, "The trading function is currently experiencing an anomaly. The team has identified the root cause and is deploying a fix. Real-time status updates can be viewed on the official status page."
the prediction market platform Polymarket has revealed the Beta version of its perpetual contracts product is now open for testing to a select group of users, with access to be gradually expanded over the next four weeks.Analysts suggest that this launch indicates Polymarket is moving beyond prediction markets into the crypto derivatives trading space, continuously expanding its platform's use cases and user base. The official announcement has not yet disclosed the specific trading pairs or functional details supported by the perpetual contracts product.
according to community user @Caneleo55, the Polymarket deployer wallet has deployed multiple contracts, and may launch a streak prediction (where all matches must be predicted correctly) before the World Cup.
According to The Block, the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has received the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) proposed rulemaking notice on prediction markets and is currently reviewing it. The CFTC stated it will provide further details after the interagency review process concludes. Recently, Trump publicly endorsed CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s position that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Over the past year, the CFTC has consistently reinforced its regulatory claims over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits against five states—Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York—seeking to restrict Kalshi and Polymarket. TD Cowen believes Trump’s statement is unlikely to alter the legal dispute surrounding this matter in federal court.
: Prediction market Polymarket is facing increased pressure from regulatory and sanctions compliance. It is reported that the platform is pushing traders to undergo identity verification (KYC) to mitigate potential legal and compliance risks.Although Polymarket's betting platform rules do not permit such activities in certain regions, some users have still been participating in market trading through automated trading bots and other methods, forming gray usage pathways in areas such as Russia. Some developers have even utilized tools like Telegram to organize trading traffic and expand their user base. As the platform scales and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, Polymarket is being forced to seek a balance between the decentralized prediction market model and compliance requirements to address potential sanctions and legal risks. (The Information)
the Spanish government is taking action to block Polymarket and Kalshi, stating that the two prediction market platforms are operating in the country without obtaining gambling licenses, allegedly violating the law. Spain's consumer affairs department stated that it has issued preventive blocking orders targeting the websites of Polymarket and Kalshi. Officials will investigate suspected violations of gambling laws, with the relevant procedures expected to last three to four months.The Spanish Gambling Regulatory Authority stated that when prediction platforms allow users to place bets on uncertain outcomes, they carry gambling risks, and companies seeking to offer such services require specific administrative licenses. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi have not responded to requests for comment. (WSJ)
crypto asset trading platform Gate has completed a new round of functional upgrades for its prediction market. This upgrade primarily covers modules such as Polymarket monitoring, Live real-time market, and event comment sections, while simultaneously optimizing market dynamics display capabilities to help users more quickly identify trending events and key capital flows. Gate now supports the Polymarket monitoring function, allowing users to directly follow smart money strategies via the "Leaderboard" or monitor specific wallet addresses. The platform currently supports copy trading based on "single position amount," with plans to expand more monitoring methods in the future to enhance strategy replication flexibility and trading efficiency.Meanwhile, the prediction market Live zone has officially launched, aggregating active prediction events and real-time trading dynamics. It supports simultaneous viewing of the latest prices, market trends, and trading changes, helping users instantly capture market hotspots and trading opportunities. Additionally, the platform has introduced an event comment section, allowing users to discuss event trends, outcome judgments, and position strategies, thereby enhancing market sentiment perception and community interaction experience. In the future, Gate will continue to improve the prediction market product ecosystem, driving the deep integration of trading, data, content, and community capabilities.
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
A recent exchange report published by CoinDesk shows that Gate continues to maintain a leading global position in both spot and derivatives markets. In April, Gate's spot trading volume reached $39.3 billion, while its derivatives trading volume hit $350 billion. Combining both spot and derivatives, its total trading volume ranked fourth globally. Meanwhile, Gate also secured the fourth spot in the global derivatives exchange ranking, holding a 9.86% market share and maintaining its position as a top-tier trading platform worldwide.The report indicates that despite a general decline in overall derivatives market activity, the open interest on centralized exchanges saw a counter-trend increase of 16.9% in April, reaching $105 billion—a new high since February this year. Gate ranked fourth among global retail trading platforms in terms of open interest, with a 9.45% market share, reflecting its ongoing advantages in liquidity depth, trading activity, and competitiveness within the derivatives market.Beyond trading services, the CoinDesk report also highlighted multiple advancements in Gate’s products and ecosystem. Gate has become the first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading directly through the Gate App using USDT. Currently, Gate has established a systematic framework focusing on the convergence of AI and Web3, progressively forming an AI ecosystem comprising Gate.AI, Gate for AI Agent, GateRouter, and GateClaw. This positions Gate to accelerate its evolution into a key gateway for next-generation AI and on-chain interactions.
Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.
Odaily reports, In a recent video interview with Cointelegraph, Gate Founder and CEO Dr. Han stated that the crypto industry is transitioning from a primarily speculation-driven market towards a phase focused on infrastructure development and real-world applications. Dr. Han pointed out that stablecoins, RWA, AI, and asset tokenization are becoming core directions for the industry, and that clearer regulatory frameworks (such as the CLARITY Act) are expected to further drive innovation in DeFi, payments, and on-chain finance.Dr. Han also mentioned that high user entry barriers, security risks, and liquidity fragmentation remain significant challenges facing the industry. In the future, the crypto industry will further integrate with traditional finance, playing a more important role in areas such as payments, settlement, and the circulation of digital assets.Gate continues to deepen its multi-asset and TradFi strategy. In addition to expanding into assets such as stocks, metals, forex, indices, and commodities, it has also launched Pre-IPOs with the first project, SpaceX (SPCX). At the same time, as one of the first CEX platforms to integrate Polymarket, Gate is continuously promoting the development of the prediction market ecosystem, accelerating the construction of a comprehensive trading platform that spans crypto and traditional finance.
Odaily. Bernstein stated in its latest research report that the newly reached compromise on stablecoin yields under the U.S. CLARITY Act is structurally beneficial for Circle and the USDC ecosystem.The report notes that the current version of the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest to passive holders that is "economically equivalent" to bank deposits, but allows reward mechanisms tied to actual transaction, payment, and usage activities to continue. Bernstein believes this means Circle's current model, which relies on partners like Coinbase to provide USDC reward programs, will gain regulatory recognition, while also limiting the industry's ability to compete for market share through high yields.Bernstein points out that the bill effectively reinforces the positioning of stablecoins as "payment tools" rather than "deposit substitutes," helping to protect Circle's current business model that relies on reserve income. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating for Circle with a $190 target price.Data shows that the total global supply of dollar-pegged stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC collectively accounting for approximately 97% of the market share. Bernstein notes that USDC's share in on-chain payments and wallet transfers is steadily increasing, and its share of payments in the AI Agent payment protocol x402 has exceeded 99%.Additionally, Bernstein mentioned that Circle's ARC chain has cumulatively completed 244 million testnet transactions. The ARC token pre-sale previously raised $222 million, with investors including a16z crypto, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, and BlackRock.However, the report also points out that the CLARITY Act still needs to complete multiple legislative procedures before it takes effect, including a 60-vote threshold in the full Senate and coordination with the House version. Polymarket currently estimates its probability of passage by 2026 at approximately 62%. (The Block)
Odaily Despite warnings and related bans issued by the Indian government, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket still allow Indian users to register and trade.According to reports, India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology stated in a letter last month that Indian users are still accessing "illegal and already blocked prediction markets and online entertainment platforms." The relevant announcement was subsequently published on the ministry's official website, specifically naming "Polymarket and other similar websites," stating that these platforms should have been blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs). (Bloomberg)
RWA trading platform MSX has announced that the second phase of its Pre-IPO segment is expected to officially open for subscription on May 16, 2026. The targets listed in this phase are AI large model leader Anthropic and prediction market representative platform Polymarket. The subscription price for Anthropic is 855U, with a valuation of $950 billion. The subscription price for Polymarket is set at 152U, with a valuation of $15 billion.MSX's first Pre-IPO project, Cerebras ($CBRS.M), has completed a closed loop from Pre-IPO subscription to spot trading upon IPO listing. Participating users achieved a yield of over 300% based on a subscription price of 100.35U. For details on the specific subscription quota, fee standards, and subsequent settlement arrangements for the second-phase projects, users can log in to the MSX platform page for more information.
According to WIRED, Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency is leveraging artificial intelligence to investigate insider trading on prediction markets such as Polymarket. Over the past year, multiple traders on Polymarket are suspected of using non-public information to place early bets on geopolitical events—including Venezuela’s surprise military action and the Iran war—and reaped substantial profits, drawing widespread attention. Previously, a U.S. Special Forces soldier was arrested for allegedly profiting from betting on the Maduro arrest incident on Polymarket using classified intelligence—marking the first criminal insider trading case involving a prediction market in the United States.
Turnkey, a company specializing in crypto wallets and key management infrastructure, has announced the completion of a $12.5 million strategic financing round. Archetype and Circle Ventures led the round, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Bain Capital Crypto, Lightspeed Faction, Galaxy Ventures, and Variant. The project's total funding has now exceeded $65 million.The company's primary business involves developing wallet and key management infrastructure for crypto applications. This round of financing will be used to support the development and public launch of Turnkey Verifiable Cloud, a product focused on digital asset security computing. This product aims to provide enterprises with verifiable operating environments, encompassing functionalities such as transaction visibility, policy decisions, and agent-driven wallet activities. Turnkey's current clientele includes Polymarket, World App, and Anchorage Digital.
According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus curiae brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, supporting Kalshi’s appeal in its litigation against Ohio and asserting that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s regulatory jurisdiction. The CFTC stated that Ohio’s prior demand that Kalshi cease offering sports-event contracts constituted “jurisdictional overreach.” The CFTC warned that if states were permitted to restrict sports-event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCMs), the CFTC’s long-standing regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be undermined. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.