News linked to both this project and an event.
: Prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that all Up/Down markets now feature a Maker order rebate mechanism. Users who complete trades via limit orders can receive a 25% rebate on Maker fees.Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's Maker rebate offers two key advantages that are more direct: a higher rebate rate, and real-time settlement immediately after the trade, without waiting for finalization.For high-frequency traders, professional market makers, and users who frequently employ limit orders, real-time rebates allow for faster capital release, reducing the continuous impact of fees on trading profits. The higher rebate rate also means that as trading frequency and volume increase, the actual cost savings become more significant.This mechanism now covers all Up/Down markets on predict.fun. Users do not need to register or apply separately; rebates for qualifying orders will be automatically credited to the account upon execution.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
: Celestia Labs has announced the acquisition of Sovereign Labs, a developer of high-performance blockchain frameworks. Since 2021, Sovereign Labs has been deeply involved in the Celestia ecosystem, with its framework providing underlying support for projects such as the cross-chain bridge Relay Protocol and the high-performance perpetual contract trading platform Bullet. Following this acquisition, Celestia Labs' technical capabilities will extend from Layer 1 to the execution and application layers, positioning it as a full-stack custom blockchain development partner for enterprises. As projects like Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Robinhood have chosen to build their own chains, enterprise demand for full-stack blockchain infrastructure is growing.
Odaily, Polymarket-based DeFi startup Gondor has announced the launch of Gondor v1, claiming it will be the first margin account product for Polymarket. The version is expected to go live publicly in September.Gondor v1 will allow users to manage cross-margining across their entire Polymarket portfolio, using the full portfolio as collateral for loans. Users can then use the credit line to purchase more prediction market shares, achieving higher capital efficiency and leverage operations.This marks an expansion from the beta version Gondor launched seven months ago. The previous product primarily allowed users to take out loans against individual Polymarket positions, while v1 expands the collateral scope to the entire portfolio.Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically operate on a full collateral model, requiring users to deposit the entire risk amount upfront and lock up funds until the event is settled. Gondor aims to unlock this locked capital through portfolio margining and lending mechanisms, allowing users to gain additional liquidity and continue placing bets without immediately selling their positions.
Gate Predictions Market has officially launched a real-time alert feature. By monitoring large buy and sell orders in the market in real-time, it helps users quickly gain insights into capital flows, shifts in market sentiment, and potential trading opportunities, further enhancing the efficiency of event trading decisions. Users can experience this feature after upgrading the Gate App to version v8.27.0. Without needing to check event order books one by one, they can centrally grasp major capital movements in the market through the "Alerts" list. Additionally, the feature supports filtering by dimensions such as buy/sell direction, transaction amount thresholds, and event categories. It also displays core information including trading users, event markets, trading direction, and transaction amounts, and allows users to customize alert subscriptions to receive in-app notifications immediately when qualifying large transactions occur.This feature launch enhances Gate Predictions Market's data analysis and strategy assistance capabilities, working in conjunction with the previously introduced "Smart Money" feature. Users can not only track capital movements in real-time but also combine this with the historical trading, holdings, and profit performance of top traders to obtain more valuable market references. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate continuously enriches its predictions market product suite and has simultaneously launched World Cup-themed activities. The "World Cup Prediction King Tournament" offers a total prize pool of 100,000 USDT, while the "World Cup Daily Featured Events" activity has a prize pool of 50,000 USDT, aiming to enhance user participation experience and strive to build a professional predictions market platform that integrates market discovery, strategy analysis, and trading participation.
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, for the prediction event "Anthropic's highest valuation this year," the probability of Anthropic reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation by the end of 2026 has risen to 78%, up 47% in 24 hours; the probability of reaching $2 trillion has risen to 37%, up 19% in 24 hours.On June 1, Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC, officially initiating its IPO process in the United States. Recently, research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that Anthropic is expected to achieve $1 billion in GAAP operating profit in the third quarter of 2026, with an operating profit margin of 6%.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay one step ahead, and seize the opportunity.https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31
the official interface shows Polymarket has launched a Perp trading feature. It currently supports 10 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, as well as Gold, Silver, SP500, NAS100, WTIOIL, and SPCX, with up to 20x leverage available.
Polymarket has integrated Spark, a Bitcoin Layer 2 payment protocol, allowing users to make instant deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.According to the report, Spark will provide underlying payment infrastructure for Polymarket, enabling users to deposit directly with BTC, with funds arriving in seconds. Compared to traditional on-chain Bitcoin transfers, which take 30 minutes to 1 hour for confirmation, this offers faster speed, lower costs, and greater privacy. This integration is also part of Polymarket's ongoing efforts to enhance the Bitcoin payment experience, following its earlier move to support Bitcoin deposits. (Digital Assets)
crypto KOL Ansem stated on X platform that BullpenFi is a one-stop trading terminal he co-founded. The platform supports trading Solana chain Meme coins, Hyperliquid perpetual contracts, Polymarket prediction markets, and stocks, and also supports trading in USD via wire transfer, ACH, or cryptocurrency, allowing users to complete registration with one click.
according to official sources, the self-custody Web3 wallet BM Wallet has launched its prediction market feature. Users can now directly participate in real-world event predictions within the wallet, settling entirely with stablecoins. Assets never need to be withdrawn, and private keys remain under the user's control at all times. This feature integrates the prediction market Polymarket, tapping into its deep liquidity. The initial phase centers on the World Cup, while also covering sectors such as cryptocurrency and politics. It is currently available in designated regions.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" has risen to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours.The rules state that a model explicitly named "GPT-5.6," or a model officially recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), will meet the settlement conditions. Task-specific models like GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are all included in this market. However, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not counted.Additionally, qualified models must be open to the public, including public beta or open waitlists; closed testing or private access only will not meet the requirements. The final settlement will primarily be based on OpenAI's official announcements and public information on its official website, and will be verified with mainstream media reports.On June 27, OpenAI launched the next-generation GPT-5.6 series of models, currently offering a limited preview to a select group of partners.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
The PPP prediction market tool monitors that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Netherlands vs. Morocco" prediction event, a smart money address (0x0c787cc2962ee6464414da592b892c3886e077f1) with total profits exceeding $229,000 purchased $116,000 on the Netherlands defeating Morocco. The average entry price was 43¢, with 274,653.6 shares bought, currently showing an unrealized loss of $1,373.The Round of 32 match between the uncrowned kings of the Netherlands and Africa Cup of Nations champions Morocco will kick off on June 30 at 9:00 AM Beijing time. Morocco's current FIFA ranking has just risen to 6th, one spot ahead of the Netherlands. In this World Cup, the Netherlands is known as the "strong offense, weak defense Tulips," while Morocco is the "upgraded Atlas Lions," making this match full of suspense.The Odaily Seer channel continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Odaily reporter: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his subordinates to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena.Executives said that Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The application will rely on points similar to those in video games, rather than accepting real money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users for the application and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
According to market sources: Prediction market platform Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion, with daily trading volume soaring from $50 million to $200 million. (Sina Finance)