Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.