News linked to both this project and an event.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that the prediction market ETF was not launched today as originally scheduled, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to conduct further reviews of related products.Eric Balchunas stated that the delay "is not a fatal issue" at this point, but rather suggests that regulators want to conduct additional scrutiny on the disclosure documents. He noted that such products are groundbreaking and, once approved, will set an important regulatory precedent for prediction market ETFs, so it is understandable that the SEC wants to dedicate more time to review them.
CoinShares data shows crypto funds saw net inflows of $858 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows and the largest single-week inflow since the end of April. Among them, Bitcoin funds attracted over $700 million in a single week, with year-to-date inflows reaching $4.9 billion, indicating sustained growth in institutional investor demand for the crypto market.Market analysis suggests that positive expectations related to the "Clarity Act" have driven an improvement in institutional sentiment. Currently, BTC prices remain above the $80,000 mark, with the market watching for a potential breakout of the 200-day moving average near $82,000. Marex analysts point out that if Bitcoin manages a daily close above $82,000 accompanied by stable spot buying, it could initiate a new upward trend.In the altcoin space, SUI rose 12% in 24 hours to $1.26. Mysten Labs co-founder Adeniyi Abiodun revealed that Sui plans to launch confidential transaction features this year to support fee-free private payments. Additionally, Nasdaq-listed Sui Group Holdings (SUIG) previously announced that it has staked most of its reserve SUI, effectively reducing the circulating market supply by approximately 2.7%. (CoinDesk)
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
Bitcoin held above the $80,000 mark over the weekend, with no further significant decline in the market for now. However, market analysts believe that the short-term correction is not yet over. Cryptic Trades stated that current low-timeframe charts indicate that after encountering resistance near a high-timeframe resistance level, BTC is more likely to retest the "Bull Market Support Band" in the short term, which consists of two key moving averages located below $80,000. As long as BTC can hold this support band and the high-timeframe support zone around $75,000, the subsequent trend still leans towards an upward move.Additionally, some market analysis points out that Bitcoin's previous breakout above the bull market support band was "not clear-cut," and the market needs to consolidate firmly above the lower $80,000 region for one to two weeks to confirm a strengthening trend. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News Circle announced that USDC stablecoin issuer Circle will release its first-quarter earnings report before the U.S. stock market opens on May 11, and will hold an earnings conference call at 8:00 PM Beijing time on May 11 to discuss financial results and business progress.Market expectations for Q1 revenue are approximately $715 million, down about 7% from $770 million in Q4 2025, and up approximately 11% year-over-year; GAAP earnings per share are expected to be $0.18, with adjusted earnings per share expected at $0.27. The average analyst price target is $144.36. Oppenheimer maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $152, while Needham also maintains a Buy rating but has lowered its target price from $190 to $130. Circle's market cap currently stands at $28.1 billion, with the stock price at $113.67.
on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark, ending a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, with the market's rebound momentum from the February low showing signs of cooling.The US added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, surpassing the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Although the data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, it reinforced the expectation that "energy-driven inflation limits the scope for rate cuts."In terms of capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $277 million on Thursday, ending a cumulative inflow streak of $1.69 billion. Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling in institutional risk appetite.On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the US have reignited, prompting the market to reprice the risk associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have rebounded, partially offsetting the previous support that risk assets had gained from falling oil prices.The derivatives market, meanwhile, reflects a more prolonged hawkish outlook. Interest rate futures pricing suggests over a 50% probability of rate hikes persisting beyond 2027, pushing the potential easing cycle back to 2028.On-chain data shows that the recent Bitcoin rally was primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining low. Funding rates have stayed moderate, indicating a relatively weak market momentum structure. Analysts suggest that if retail capital does not return, BTC may still face the risk of retesting the $75,000–$78,000 support range. (The Block)
According to CoinDesk, at the “Perp DEX Explosion: Bullish Volumes and Bear Market Resilience” panel at Consensus Miami, several industry insiders stated that institutional investors are still largely avoiding decentralized exchanges offering perpetual futures (Perp DEXs). Veteran trader Wizard of SoHo pointed out that Drift’s recent multi-million-dollar hack highlights security vulnerabilities in the DeFi ecosystem, making secure onboarding of institutional capital a core competitive focus for major Perp DEXs. Anderson of Canary Labs expressed concern about DeFi’s current security posture, noting that large institutions face significantly greater challenges adopting decentralized exchanges compared to centralized platforms. Additionally, the structural tension between DeFi’s permissionless, open design and institutions’ stringent KYC compliance requirements is seen as a key barrier to scaling adoption. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, shared his views on AI-powered trading tools, stating that AI agents represent an evolutionary extension of algorithmic trading—and that trading will increasingly become fully automated.
Odaily News: Garrett Jin, representative of the "BTC OG Insider Whale," published an analytical article titled "A Painted Ceasefire," warning crypto traders not to be lulled by the surface-level market trends. While the market appears stable, underlying risks are continuously building. He pointed out that following Trump’s visit to China, the window for a US-Iran military conflict could reopen at any time. This current ceasefire is merely a delay in confrontation, not the beginning of favorable developments. Market sentiment is currently highly optimistic, with Saudi Arabia and Iran reaching a cooperation memorandum, impressive earnings reports from tech companies, rising South Korean stocks, and Bitcoin approaching the $82,000-$83,000 range. However, macro-level hidden dangers are gradually emerging: a liquidity drought in large corporate transactions, airline bankruptcies, banks provisioning for potential war losses in advance, and Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves hitting a new all-time high. Garrett Jin predicts that late May could be a key turning point. If tech giants continue to exceed performance expectations, the risk window may be delayed until the July earnings season. (Garrettsignal)
Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.
On X, on-chain analytics platform Bubblemaps stated that the token MYSTERY may have exhibited highly centralized control during its initial launch phase, describing it as a “textbook scam.” Bubblemaps disclosed data showing that approximately 90 newly created wallets seized roughly 90% of the token’s supply at launch and have since continuously dumped their holdings—generating over $100,000 in proceeds so far, while still retaining about 40% of the total supply. Additionally, the token’s launch featured clear “bundled distribution” and centralized control characteristics, and some KOLs promoting MYSTERY were reportedly paid to do so.
Tether’s official data reveals that Tether Gold (XAUT) continued its expansion in Q1 2026, with its total market capitalization surpassing $3.3 billion—driven by record-high gold prices and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, which significantly increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. Tether’s quarterly data shows that its underlying gold reserves grew 36% quarter-on-quarter, reaching approximately 707,747 troy ounces as of March 31, fully backing the circulating XAU₮ tokens on a 1:1 basis with physical gold and supporting a total market capitalization of approximately $3.303 billion. Compared to roughly 520,000 troy ounces of gold reserves at the end of 2025, this quarter’s substantial increase in gold holdings reflects sustained capital inflows into digitized physical gold products.
Garrett Jin, agent representing the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that Trump’s launch of the so-called “Project Freedom” is not a de-risking signal, but is more likely to act as a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Multiple factors are converging, including energy inventory pressures, enhanced regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic pathways. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals, but their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risks. Overall, investors are advised to maintain a cautious and hedging mindset, paying close attention to the potential disruption of market sentiment by macroeconomic and geopolitical variables.Although the market has interpreted this move as a sign of easing tensions, driving risk assets higher, the underlying structure is more akin to a strategic framework of “limited engagement plus potential response.” The action primarily maintains shipping security through coordinated shipping lanes, insurance support, and military standby, rather than direct escort operations. This approach could, in fact, amplify reactions to specific triggering events.
Garrett Jin, the agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” authored an analysis stating that Trump’s so-called “Project Freedom” is not a signal of risk mitigation but rather a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Although the market interprets it as a de-escalation and has driven risk assets higher, its underlying structure more closely resembles a “limited engagement + potential response” strategic framework. This initiative primarily maintains maritime security through coordination of shipping lanes, insurance support, and military readiness—rather than direct naval escort—potentially amplifying market reactions once triggered by specific events. Meanwhile, multiple factors—including energy inventory pressures, heightened regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic channels—are converging. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals; however, their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risk. Overall, investors are advised to maintain caution and adopt hedging strategies, closely monitoring how macroeconomic and geopolitical variables could potentially disrupt market sentiment.
Odaily Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted on X yesterday stating that the company will suspend its routine weekly Bitcoin purchase plan this week, marking the second time this year it has paused weekly accumulation.To date, Strategy holds a total of 818,334 BTC, representing approximately 3.9% of Bitcoin's total supply. Data from Saylortracker shows that as Bitcoin staged a strong rebound today, breaking through the $80,000 mark, the total market value of BTC held by Strategy has returned to above $65 billion, currently standing at $65.74 billion. The average cost price is $75,537, with an unrealized profit of $3.926 billion.Strategy is expected to announce its Q1 earnings on Tuesday, with the market anticipating a loss per share of $18.98, higher than the loss of $16.38 per share in the same period last year. Its ongoing coin purchases are primarily financed through stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock. Among these, the high-dividend product STRC (annualized yield approximately 11.5%) has raised concerns among some analysts regarding structural risks, though others argue that this model can convert yield demands into long-term Bitcoin exposure. (The Block)
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
According to Reuters, Reddit announced its Q2 2026 financial guidance, forecasting revenue of $715–$725 million—above the market expectation of $711.6 million—and adjusted EBITDA of $285–$295 million—also exceeding analysts’ consensus estimate of $277.1 million. Additionally, the number of active advertisers rose 75% year-on-year; revenue climbed 69% year-on-year to $663 million—surpassing the market expectation of $610.9 million; daily active unique visitors increased 17% year-on-year to 126.8 million; and global average revenue per user (ARPU) rose 44%. Reddit stated it is continuously enhancing advertising efficiency through AI-powered tools—including an AI ad copy generator tailored for Reddit’s environment—and performance-based ads driven by these AI tools now account for over 60% of total advertising revenue.
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Galaxy Digital released its first-quarter 2026 financial results, reporting a net loss of $216 million and a diluted loss per share of $0.49. The primary driver was the broad downturn in cryptocurrency markets during the quarter, with total crypto market capitalization shrinking by approximately 20%. Its crypto asset holdings declined from $1.67 billion in Q4 2025 to $1.36 billion. As of the end of March, its largest crypto holding was 6,894 BTC (approximately $431 million), followed by $61 million worth of SOL and $42 million worth of ETH. Despite the pressure on earnings, Galaxy Digital’s AI infrastructure business is progressing smoothly: the company confirmed delivery of its first data center facility to CoreWeave and expects to fulfill its full commitment of 133 megawatts of AI/IT infrastructure by the end of Q2. Boosted by this news, the company’s stock (NASDAQ: GLXY) rose 5% intraday—a move that diverged from Bitcoin’s concurrent decline. Wall Street analysts currently assign GLXY an aggregate rating of “Moderate Buy,” with a consensus target price of $39.40—implying roughly 50% upside from its share price of $26.30 at the time of writing.