News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Korean media Daum, volatility in the South Korean stock market has recently intensified, investor risk appetite has clearly cooled, and funds are flowing back from the stock market to safe-haven assets such as banks. Due to adjustments in the semiconductor sector and stricter regulation on leveraged investment, idle funds in the South Korean stock market are withdrawing rapidly, and the market is exhibiting a phenomenon of "reverse capital migration". Data shows that as of the end of July, the time deposit balance at South Korea's five major banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NH Nonghyup) reached 973.49 trillion won, an increase of 24.09 trillion won from the end of the previous month, marking the largest single-month increase this year. Funds related to the stock market also showed significant contraction. According to data from the Korea Financial Investment Association, investor securities account deposits (idle funds for stock trading) reached a historical high of 139.69 trillion won on June 4, but as of July 28, had fallen to 107.20 trillion won, a decrease of over 32 trillion won in less than two months. The balance of credit transaction financing, representing the scale of market margin trading, fell to 33.19 trillion won during the same period, a decrease of about 4.5 trillion won from the peak of 37.72 trillion won set on July 2, a decline of approximately 12%.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that data shows Bitcoin is shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. The share of Short-Term Holders (STH) has dropped to 23%, the lowest level since the bottoming phase from 2022 to 2023; meanwhile, the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is approaching historical highs.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, stating that bonds have once again failed to hedge against stock declines. Since SPY retreated from its June highs, AGG, TLT, and LQD have all fallen. Although the time window is relatively short, it somewhat resembles the situation in 2022. He noted that many people have long relied on the 40% bond portion of the 40/60 portfolio to hedge against the 60% equity portion, which is also the reason behind the significant inflows into money market mutual funds and buffer ETFs.He further stated that this is not to say bonds will never hedge against stocks in the end, but their recent track record is less than ideal. The Fed's long-term rate cuts once pushed both bonds and stocks higher simultaneously. In 2022, when rates were unexpectedly hiked, both fell in tandem. Recently, rising crude oil prices have fueled inflation concerns, leading to a similar scenario once again.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Group is gauging investor appetite for a potential $5.4 billion debt issuance plan, with the proceeds to be used to support the QTS data center project under Blackstone tied to Microsoft. The debt structure includes approximately $4.9 billion in secured bonds and approximately $500 million in term loans. Affected by recent sell-offs in AI-related debt, the issuance timing is still under discussion, and the plan remains uncertain.
Approximately one month after its launch, Robinhood Chain has surpassed Solana in two metrics: Meme coin trading volume and the number of tokenized stock holders. On-chain data shows that Robinhood Launchpad's weekly trading volume reached $1.23 billion, surpassing Solana's core Meme coin platform PumpSwap's $1.22 billion for the first time; in terms of tokenized stock asset holders, Robinhood Chain leads with 330,000 users, followed closely by Solana with 281,000, while BNB Chain ranks third with 214,000. However, the lead in holder count has not translated into an advantage in asset scale—Robinhood Chain accounts for only about 1% of the over $2 billion tokenized stock market. Additionally, Meme coin hype cooled off towards the end of the month, with the chain's DEX daily trading volume falling from a peak of $900 million to around $500 million. To date, Robinhood Chain has generated cumulative revenue of approximately $3 million. On the stock front, institutional analysts from Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, and others maintain a bullish outlook on HOOD stock, with a target price of $122, representing approximately 31% upside potential from the current price of $92.7.
: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on July 29. The market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. Data from CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hold is between 95% and 98%. TD Securities stated that traders are still overestimating the probability of a surprise rate hike, and the related pricing includes a risk premium due to the Iran situation. The institution believes that if the Fed holds rates steady as expected, the deviation between current market pricing and actual policy action will narrow. TD Securities predicts that if the Fed keeps rates unchanged for an extended period, the dollar could fall by about 2% in the second half of 2026. The institution believes that the Fed needs to see clearer evidence of sustained inflation and a strong labor market before considering a rate hike.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since July, sentiment in the derivatives market has recovered, and the Binance funding rate, as an important reference indicator for the futures market, has started to turn positive again. He believes that from March to late May, Bitcoin experienced a deep correction, market pessimism accumulated and drove the funding rate to turn negative at one point, and this process once provided support for Bitcoin's technical rebound.
multiple South Korean media outlets interpret the recent sharp stock market decline as the impact of the listing of China's largest semiconductor company, CXMT. Market concerns are spreading that CXMT, by leveraging funds raised from its stock market debut, will catch up with semiconductor giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, undermining investment sentiment.According to a previous report by CNBC, Z-Ben Advisors analyst Peter Alexander believes that, following the development trajectory of the steel and new energy vehicle industries, CXMT will rapidly capture market share in low-end memory chips and ultimately challenge the global memory industry monopoly held by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. (China News Service)
According to TechFlow Research, on Monday (July 27), Apple rose over 1%, with its market cap reaching $4.94 trillion, surpassing Nvidia's $4.78 trillion to return to the top spot in global market cap. Over the past month, Apple outperformed the Nasdaq 100 Index by 23 percentage points, marking the largest single-month excess return since 2005. Goldman Sachs raised the target price from $330 to $370 on the same day, maintaining a Buy rating, citing increased confidence in the iPhone upgrade cycle and AI strategy. Apple will release its Q3 earnings report on Thursday, with the market expecting EPS to be $1.89. This market cap overtaking occurred against the backdrop of growing investor concerns over the ROI on huge AI capital expenditures, with Google's FCF turning negative and Nvidia facing sell-offs, while Apple became a safe haven instead due to restrained AI spending.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
Binance’s Android app is no longer available on the Google Play Store in several European Union countries. Spanish users have confirmed that the Binance app can no longer be found through Google Play searches, though it remains accessible via the Oppo App Market, an Android app store used by Oppo devices. Checks in Poland indicate that the Binance app is still available on Google Play, suggesting the situation does not cover all EU markets. Last week, OKX Europe CEO Erald Ghoos stated on X that the app was removed due to licensing requirements under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). This development comes weeks after Binance withdrew its MiCA application in Greece. The transition period for the framework ended on July 1st. Subsequently, Binance notified some EU users that access to certain services would be restricted, although withdrawals remain available.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's overall demand structure has shown weakness, primarily exhibiting two states: first, simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand; second, a brief rebound in futures demand driven solely by speculation, while spot demand continued to shrink.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X platform that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to approximately 0.42, about four times lower than its historical average of 1.7, indicating Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued zone. However, this metric has not yet entered negative territory, suggesting the market has not shown the "capitulation selling" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day Realized P/L has turned positive from negative, currently standing at approximately $239 million, indicating that on-chain selling pressure has eased. The analysis suggests that while the market is currently in an undervalued and short-term stabilization phase, it has yet to show the capitulation signal needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there clear demand-driven momentum from a new cycle.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose only about 6% during the same period, while other dog-themed tokens increased by around 10%, indicating that capital was primarily concentrated into SHIB. In the derivatives market, during this rally, positions of about 2,300 traders in SHIB and 1000SHIB were liquidated, with a total liquidation value of about $6 million, of which short positions accounted for about $5 million, but analysis suggests that short covering was more a result of the price increase rather than the main driving factor of this market movement.
Currently, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) at a loss has exceeded the level during the FTX collapse and is approaching the 2018 bear market phase. The current Bitcoin Realized Price is approximately $50,000. Historically, every cycle has retested the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, so there remains a possibility of retesting this level in the future.
According to Korean media YNA, based on data from the Korea Exchange (KRX) and financial information institution Yonhap Infomax, as of July 24, Korean individual investors have cumulatively net purchased ETFs totaling 69.5 trillion won this year, accounting for 63.2% of the 109.9 trillion won net purchase amount in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) market during the same period. Despite the Korean stock market recently entering a correction phase, individual investors continue to allocate to the market through ETFs rather than directly buying individual stocks.
According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood is negotiating with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to expand its prediction market business, planning to integrate yes/no event contract products provided by Crypto.com. People familiar with the matter stated that both parties are still in the discussion phase, and specific cooperation arrangements have not yet been finalized. Robinhood launched prediction market services in March 2025, initially offering related products through Kalshi to comply with regulatory requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and subsequently integrated ForecastEx and Rotella. Bernstein analysts recently raised the price target from $130 to $160 due to optimism regarding Robinhood's development in the prediction market and tokenized stock sectors, and predicted that prediction market business revenue could reach $1.7 billion in 2028. However, the U.S. prediction market industry currently still faces legal disputes between state and federal regulators.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.