News linked to both this project and an event.
The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that Bitcoin held its $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655. This rally stems more from exhaustion of selling pressure than from new demand: open interest in futures has declined significantly from its May highs; short-term holders have been selling at a loss; and exchange balances have dropped to a seven-year low—indicating the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and release of selling pressure. Short-term holders remain broadly underwater by approximately 17%–19%, suggesting substantial potential overhead supply remains.
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that this week, the market was significantly impacted by SpaceX's massive IPO, drawing risk concerns across asset classes. Although the overall risk appetite indicator remains in a deviation zone, it has provided some relief in terms of market sentiment. For Bitcoin, this week marks a recovery phase from the low of $60,000. However, structural selling pressure persists. Data shows a weekly net outflow of about 20,900 BTC from exchanges, indicating that the ongoing selling pressure has not fully eased. The short-term rebound is primarily driven by short covering, as accumulated short positions over the past month are being liquidated intensively, forming periodic price support. Additionally, pressure on miners has begun to emerge. The overall risk appetite has not yet clearly turned positive, and the market is in a transitional state of "repair and deleveraging coexisting."
trader Chuanmu posted on platform X, stating that when Facebook went public, its total market cap accounted for 0.086% of the U.S. stock market. Today, when SPCX got listed, this figure stands at 0.11%, making the two quite close.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated on platform X that during periods of technological architecture shifts, retail investors often take the lead in positioning, while institutional capital gradually steps in during subsequent phases to dominate market pricing. Taking stocks like SIVE, NBIS, and RKLB as examples, these assets initially had low institutional ownership, but as institutions continued to increase their holdings, their stock prices ultimately reached all-time highs.Serenity believes that the current negative sentiment surrounding companies like Foci and HIMX may be related to certain institutions needing to acquire liquidity and accumulate positions at lower prices. In recent years, when some sell-side institutions have released negative research reports or when the market has been flooded with concentrated bearish news, it has often coincided with a phase of institutional accumulation. Investors need to conduct independent research and establish their own investment logic, and should not be easily swayed by market noise. The modern liquidity cycle of the U.S. capital market essentially often manifests as a transfer of retail holdings to institutions, a process that may not necessarily align with the interests of retail investors.
on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X, stating that SPCX is about to launch, and the total share capital of SpaceX has been adjusted to 13.08 billion shares, an increase of 10%. Under the same total valuation, the pre-market contract prices will shrink by 10%, affecting platforms that have previously listed this asset and their users. Exchanges such as Binance have followed up with a rebase, and the perpetual DEX Aster has also chosen to proactively adjust to prevent user losses. TradeXYZ has announced that it will not make any adjustments, adhering to its stance as a "price-based perpetual contract," leading to long positions suffering losses. It stated that stock splits are not uncommon in US stocks, where large-cap tech stocks undergo forward stock splits due to excessively high single-share values to facilitate trading. The TradeXYZ team indicated that a solution will be provided.
U.S. stocks weakened on Wednesday as investors digested a sell-off in the chip sector, escalating geopolitical tensions, and higher-than-expected inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 374 points (0.7%), while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each declined by 0.3%.Market sentiment was notably impacted by geopolitical shocks. Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were "taking too long" and threatened further action. In response, oil prices rose, with WTI crude climbing over 1% to around $89 per barrel. Tensions in the Middle East also escalated again, following U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for the downing of a U.S. helicopter.The chip sector continued its correction, with AMD and Broadcom declining for the fourth time in five consecutive trading sessions. This follows an ETF-level retreat of approximately 10% in the sector over the past weekend, which saw a brief rebound before coming under renewed pressure. Market analysts suggest that while some profit-taking is occurring, other investors may be adjusting their portfolios ahead of the upcoming **SpaceX IPO (next Friday)**. Nonetheless, the chip ETF has still risen over 87% year-to-date.On the macro front, the U.S. core CPI for May rose 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, it stood at 2.9%, in line with expectations but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The headline CPI rose above 4% year-over-year for the first time in three years. Markets recovered somewhat from their lows following the data release.In the previous trading session, chip stocks dragged down the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while the Dow managed to close higher against the trend. Analysts noted that the recent surge in the semiconductor sector, fueled by the AI boom, has been overly rapid, stretching market sentiment significantly. The current pullback is viewed more as a technical correction rather than a deterioration of fundamentals. (CNBC)
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
According to data disclosed by crypto analyst Scott Melker, Bitcoin short-term holders have recorded the largest loss-taking sell-off in history, while approximately 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders are in a state of unrealized loss, with market sentiment turning extremely pessimistic.Additionally, Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 15.5, its lowest level since the pandemic-induced bear market in March 2020, indicating the market is deeply oversold. Having already fallen below $60,000, the likelihood of Bitcoin testing $50,000 is increasing. However, if it can sustain the key support level at $60,000 in the near term, a rebound toward the 20-day EMA around $70,600 could be possible in the coming weeks.
Crypto analyst Ali posted on X, stating that Coinbase will face a critical technical test next week. If it holds above $141, it could trigger a rebound and potentially rally toward $185; however, if it breaks below this key support level, further downside risk looms, with a potential target near $74. Meanwhile, analyst Hussein Kashmar noted that the weekly support level at $145 is also highly significant—this zone has historically attracted strong buying interest. Market participants are now watching closely to see whether bulls can successfully defend this current support area. Should buying pressure fail to materialize effectively, Coinbase may retreat further into the prior breakout range of $100–$115.
Haseeb, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, has addressed the recently patched Zcash vulnerability, stating that there are many misconceptions in the market regarding the incident. He pointed out that even if the vulnerability had been exploited before the fix, an attacker could only profit by forging ZEC within the shielded pool. For these tokens to enter mainstream trading platforms, they would first need to be converted from shielded addresses to transparent addresses. Since the supply of ZEC in transparent addresses is publicly verifiable, any abnormal transfers exceeding the maximum supply would be detected and blocked. Therefore, the vast majority of investors and exchange users holding transparent ZEC would not be affected.Haseeb stated that the Zcash team plans to introduce a new “Turnstile” mechanism and a new shielded pool in future upgrades to verify that the current shielded pool does not suffer from inflation issues. He also noted that formally verified cryptographic systems can reduce implementation errors at the design level. Finally, Haseeb disclosed that Dragonfly still holds ZEC, and he is personally an investor in ZODL.
Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott stated that mega IPOs from companies like SpaceX, Anthropic PBC, and OpenAI could divert hundreds of billions of dollars away from existing stocks, potentially creating a multi-year drag on the broader equity market.This diversion effect may take some time to materialize, following the S&P Dow Jones Indices' decision not to accelerate the inclusion of these large new issues into its benchmarks. However, in Arnott's view, as these companies' weights within the indexes gradually increase, the impact will naturally take longer to transmit to the rest of the market. Arnott is a pioneer in smart beta investing, and his firm's strategies are adopted by institutions such as Pimco and Invesco. "This is going to disturb the capital markets, and it already is," Arnott said. He is known for his research on fundamental indexing, a methodology that determines index constituent weights based on metrics like earnings and cash flow. (WSJ)
Bitcoin's price is approaching the key support level of $60,000, and a breach below could trigger accelerated selling.Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit, stated that $60,000 is more than just a psychological round number; it is a structural threshold with tangible implications for institutional investors and the derivatives market. Over the past year, a significant amount of institutional capital, including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators, purchased BTC at prices between $60,000 and $67,000. As the price approaches these buy zones, investors are near their breakeven point. If the price falls below their cost basis, unrealized losses will increase. This pressure is amplified when traditional markets, such as AI stocks, are rising, raising the opportunity cost of holding BTC and potentially prompting investors to accelerate their selling.The derivatives market is also under strain. Deribit data shows that approximately $1.2 billion in notional value of $60,000 put options remain open. Market makers hedging this risk may be forced to sell spot or futures contracts, thereby accelerating the decline. Simultaneously, there is still a large amount of leveraged long positions in the system. A break below $60,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, intensifying market sell pressure. Péquignot believes that billions of dollars in leveraged long positions have already been liquidated this week. If the $60,000 support level fails, the downward momentum could amplify further, leading to a rapid and chaotic sell-off scenario. (CoinDesk)