News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
Binance’s Android app is no longer available on the Google Play Store in several European Union countries. Spanish users have confirmed that the Binance app can no longer be found through Google Play searches, though it remains accessible via the Oppo App Market, an Android app store used by Oppo devices. Checks in Poland indicate that the Binance app is still available on Google Play, suggesting the situation does not cover all EU markets. Last week, OKX Europe CEO Erald Ghoos stated on X that the app was removed due to licensing requirements under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). This development comes weeks after Binance withdrew its MiCA application in Greece. The transition period for the framework ended on July 1st. Subsequently, Binance notified some EU users that access to certain services would be restricted, although withdrawals remain available.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's overall demand structure has shown weakness, primarily exhibiting two states: first, simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand; second, a brief rebound in futures demand driven solely by speculation, while spot demand continued to shrink.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X platform that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to approximately 0.42, about four times lower than its historical average of 1.7, indicating Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued zone. However, this metric has not yet entered negative territory, suggesting the market has not shown the "capitulation selling" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day Realized P/L has turned positive from negative, currently standing at approximately $239 million, indicating that on-chain selling pressure has eased. The analysis suggests that while the market is currently in an undervalued and short-term stabilization phase, it has yet to show the capitulation signal needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there clear demand-driven momentum from a new cycle.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose only about 6% during the same period, while other dog-themed tokens increased by around 10%, indicating that capital was primarily concentrated into SHIB. In the derivatives market, during this rally, positions of about 2,300 traders in SHIB and 1000SHIB were liquidated, with a total liquidation value of about $6 million, of which short positions accounted for about $5 million, but analysis suggests that short covering was more a result of the price increase rather than the main driving factor of this market movement.
Currently, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) at a loss has exceeded the level during the FTX collapse and is approaching the 2018 bear market phase. The current Bitcoin Realized Price is approximately $50,000. Historically, every cycle has retested the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, so there remains a possibility of retesting this level in the future.
According to Korean media YNA, based on data from the Korea Exchange (KRX) and financial information institution Yonhap Infomax, as of July 24, Korean individual investors have cumulatively net purchased ETFs totaling 69.5 trillion won this year, accounting for 63.2% of the 109.9 trillion won net purchase amount in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) market during the same period. Despite the Korean stock market recently entering a correction phase, individual investors continue to allocate to the market through ETFs rather than directly buying individual stocks.
According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood is negotiating with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to expand its prediction market business, planning to integrate yes/no event contract products provided by Crypto.com. People familiar with the matter stated that both parties are still in the discussion phase, and specific cooperation arrangements have not yet been finalized. Robinhood launched prediction market services in March 2025, initially offering related products through Kalshi to comply with regulatory requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and subsequently integrated ForecastEx and Rotella. Bernstein analysts recently raised the price target from $130 to $160 due to optimism regarding Robinhood's development in the prediction market and tokenized stock sectors, and predicted that prediction market business revenue could reach $1.7 billion in 2028. However, the U.S. prediction market industry currently still faces legal disputes between state and federal regulators.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
In response to the news that “SpaceX will stop accepting new commercial orders for the Falcon 9,” Futurum Equities Chief Market Strategist Shay Boloor stated that if Starship fails to achieve successful commercialization by 2028, this shift could create a significant gap in rocket launch capabilities, potentially benefiting second-tier launch service providers such as Rocket Lab (RKLB).This morning, sources revealed that SpaceX has begun declining exclusive commercial launch orders for the Falcon 9 scheduled after 2028, and has suspended accepting new reservations for its Rideshare program, in order to accelerate the transition to Starship.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that HedgeEye has joined the prediction market ETF race, launching Democratic and Republican prediction ETFs. Each ETF will continuously track its respective party's electoral performance in U.S. federal elections.
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released a weekly US stock strategy report on July 20. The report pointed out that the trend of market breadth expansion continues, and the momentum trading risks in the semiconductor sector have not yet been fully released. The silver stock price analogy model shows that semiconductors may have about 15% downside potential in the short term, and earnings revision breadth has retreated from historical extremes. Over the past two months, the consumer durables and transportation sectors outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 12 percentage points respectively, and the equal-weight index continues to outperform the market-cap weighted index. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley continues to recommend overweighting cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon) and underweighting semiconductors within the technology sector. The equal-weighted P/E ratio of the four major giants has fallen back to 21 times. Consumer durables and transportation are the clearest directions for capital inflows, with the earnings revision breadth of the transportation sector reaching the strongest level since 2021. Market style is gradually shifting towards quality factors, with earnings revision breadth for high gross margin and high sales stability factors continuing to strengthen. The S&P 500 year-end target is 8,000 points, with 7,000 points being a key technical support level.
According to the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "Bitcoin July Price" prediction market, BTC currently has a 75% probability of reaching $67,500, a 34% probability of reaching $70,000, and a 12% probability of reaching $72,500.Recently, Bitcoin has continued its rebound trend. According to OKX data, BTC approached $67,000 last night, with market sentiment steadily warming. Additionally, the previously bullish whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" took profits and exited early yesterday morning, but posted on X platform, stating, "The trend remains bullish; this is simply taking profits and securing gains."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Odaily Odaily News Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report on Robinhood that the platform's prediction market revenue could surpass its cryptocurrency trading revenue as early as the second quarter of this year. It is expected that by 2028, Robinhood's prediction market business will generate nearly $2 billion in annual revenue.Additionally, Bernstein has raised its price target for HOOD from $130 to $160.
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.
According to monitoring by ScenarioX, an analyst at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's 30-day spot demand has deteriorated again to nearly -170,000 BTC after briefly rebounding to approximately -80,000 BTC in early July. Despite the significant decline in spot demand, the BTC price currently remains relatively stable, supported by eased short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market. ScenarioX noted that current derivatives demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward trend on its own, and the overall market structure is relatively fragile. If spot selling pressure reignites, it may trigger a sharp downturn; if spot selling remains sluggish, a derivatives-driven technical rebound may continue, but in the absence of substantial spot demand support, such rebounds will most likely end with large-scale long liquidations.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, the three major memory chip companies, have all seen their stock prices decline this month, presenting an opportunity for investors to reposition themselves in the rapidly growing storage chip industry.Market concerns are rising that the current memory chip boom driven by AI demand may slow down in the coming years, potentially repeating the "expansion – oversupply – downturn" cycle commonly seen in this cyclical industry.Analysts point out that investors looking to enter the memory chip sector at this stage need to believe in the sustainability of AI-driven storage demand growth and be able to withstand the risks associated with industry cyclical fluctuations.In terms of investment strategy, one approach is to focus on companies with the lowest valuations. Samsung, currently trading at a relatively low valuation among the three major memory chip firms, could be a choice for some investors seeking exposure to the growth opportunities in the storage chip industry. (The Information)
according to Arkham monitoring, 84 million BANK tokens have been transferred from a suspected BANK Foundation wallet, BANK Foundation Wallet (0xEde6…3B11a), to a new address (0x5721…22Bd8). Subsequently, this address transferred the relevant tokens to the Aster deposit address (0x1284…87974).Market data shows: The price of BANK tokens has surged significantly over the past few days, rising more than threefold, and is now quoted at approximately $0.16.
as the market sees a lower probability of a major shock to the U.S. dollar in the short term, the cost for investors to hedge against dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level this year.Data shows that the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's 1-month implied volatility gauge, which measures expectations for dollar fluctuations, dropped to its lowest level since last December this week. This marks a clear decline from the market volatility peak triggered by the outbreak of the Iran war in March this year.Market participants believe that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, traders are not currently anticipating a risk of sharp volatility for the dollar.As the world's primary reserve currency, the dollar's safe-haven demand and interest rate trends have always been closely watched by the market. The current decline in dollar volatility reflects investors' reduced concerns about the future exchange rate environment, while also indicating that the market is awaiting the emergence of new macro catalysts. (Bloomberg)