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AI chip company Enflame Technology's STAR Market IPO approved
Odaily News According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) official website, the STAR Market IPO application of Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Enflame") has been reviewed and approved by the exchange's listing review committee. Enflame initiated its IPO辅导 in August 2024 and completed the辅导 evaluation in January this year. Notably, the company changed its sponsor from CICC to CITIC Securities in October last year, and its listing application was accepted by the SSE on January 12, 2025.According to the prospectus, Enflame Technology plans to raise 6 billion yuan for the research and development and industrialization projects of its fifth-generation AI chip series, the research and development and industrialization projects of its sixth-generation AI chip series, and an advanced AI software and hardware collaborative innovation project. (Caixin)
SPCX Pre-Market Contract Prices to Shrink by 10%, TradeXYZ Announces No Adjustments
on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X, stating that SPCX is about to launch, and the total share capital of SpaceX has been adjusted to 13.08 billion shares, an increase of 10%. Under the same total valuation, the pre-market contract prices will shrink by 10%, affecting platforms that have previously listed this asset and their users. Exchanges such as Binance have followed up with a rebase, and the perpetual DEX Aster has also chosen to proactively adjust to prevent user losses. TradeXYZ has announced that it will not make any adjustments, adhering to its stance as a "price-based perpetual contract," leading to long positions suffering losses. It stated that stock splits are not uncommon in US stocks, where large-cap tech stocks undergo forward stock splits due to excessively high single-share values to facilitate trading. The TradeXYZ team indicated that a solution will be provided.
Financial infrastructure company TVL Capital completes $5 million funding round led by Framework Ventures
financial infrastructure company TVL Capital announced the completion of a $5 million funding round, led by Framework Ventures, with participation from Flow Traders and other institutions. Co-founder Lars previously served as Head of Market Research at The Block. The company's products are benchmarked against traditional exchange-traded products, aiming to build compliant, composable derivatives and diversified yield structures, primarily targeting institutional investors to meet various structured investment and yield management needs.
Polymarket launches new prediction: "Will SpaceX open higher on its second trading day?"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
Venture capital firm Founders Fund deployed its $4.6 billion fund within one year, making significant investments in leading AI and technology companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
According to The Information, as AI unicorns continue to attract massive capital inflows, venture capital (VC) firms are accelerating their fundraising efforts at an unprecedented pace. Founders Fund has already launched a new $6 billion fund this year to invest in late-stage growth companies—the first time in the firm’s 20-year history that it has raised capital from limited partners (LPs) less than two years after its previous fundraise. Reportedly, Founders Fund’s $4.6 billion fund raised in 2025 has been largely deployed, with capital allocated primarily across seven standout companies—averaging $600 million per investment—including AI and tech leaders such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Ramp, and Cognition. Market observers believe that the sustained heating of the generative AI sector, coupled with surging funding needs among top AI companies, is propelling the global venture capital industry into a new fundraising and investment cycle—and driving large funds to deploy and replenish capital at an unprecedented speed.
Bitcoin's "Silent Bear Market" Continues, Posting Worst Weekly Performance Since FTX Collapse
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve’s New Chair Warsh Set for Debut, Market Expects Benchmark Rate to Hold at 3.50%-3.75%
The global financial market's attention will be focused on Washington this week as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first post-confirmation FOMC press conference. This marks not only his transition from a policy commentator to the "world's most powerful banker," but also a critical window for the outside world to observe whether a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is underway.The market widely expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during this week's meeting. Compared to the specific rate decision, the market is more focused on how Warsh will reshape the Fed's "art of communication." For a long time, former Chair Powell tended to guide market expectations through transparent "forward guidance," but Warsh has previously expressed reservations about this approach publicly, arguing that the Fed should not provide too many interest rate hints to the market.This meeting will also release the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot." For Warsh, who has a strong aversion to the dot plot, this is undoubtedly an awkward beginning, as he must find a balance between respecting the Fed's decision-making mechanism and articulating his own policy preferences. (Reuters)
Analysis: Ceasefire in the Middle East and Fed Decision Set to Influence Crypto Market, Geopolitical Risks and Rate Path in Focus This Week
the crypto market hopes to shake off months of geopolitical pressure this week. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, Bitcoin rose to near $66,000 on Monday, up about 3.5% from Friday. Crypto-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) also advanced in pre-market trading.However, the market remains cautious, as past ceasefire agreements have often collapsed. The April truce failed to hold, and last month's US military action broke another round of peace talks, which also dragged down crypto asset prices at the time.This week, the spotlight will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over the first rate-setting meeting, with the market widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.Analysts point out that the release of the new “dot plot” (showing Fed officials' interest rate expectations) and the shortened trading day due to the Juneteenth holiday on Friday could reduce market liquidity. This week's economic data and Fed policy guidance will determine whether the crypto market can sustain a rebound on the back of easing geopolitical risks. (CoinDesk)
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
New Fed Chair Waller Plans to Tighten Policy Communication; First Rate Decision Draws Market Attention
According to The Wall Street Journal, Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s new chair, advocates reducing forward guidance, the dot plot, and frequent public speeches by officials—preferring instead to let markets price assets with fewer policy signals, thereby enhancing the flexibility of monetary policy. Given that the Iran war has driven up energy prices and inflation remains elevated, Warsh has limited room for adjustments to interest-rate policy in the near term; thus, reforming communication mechanisms may become a top priority early in his tenure.
US CFTC Issues Exemption Letter Allowing Exchanges to Convert Existing Crypto Perpetual Futures into True Perpetual Contract Structures
the Market Oversight Division of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an exemption letter to Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), permitting them to convert their existing "perpetual-like" digital commodity futures contracts into true crypto perpetual futures contracts. This policy is an extension of previous regulatory clarifications and specifically applies to digital commodities such as Bitcoin, which have deep, active, and continuous spot market trading.According to the document, DCMs may remove the expiration date from existing contracts and convert them into true perpetual contracts, provided they meet certain conditions. These requirements include soliciting feedback from position holders, providing advance notice and offering opportunities to close positions, conducting adequate risk disclosures, and ensuring that other key contract terms remain unaltered. Additionally, exchanges must submit amendment filings in accordance with CFTC Rules 40.5 or 40.6 and complete compliance certification.
T. Rowe Price Multi-Asset Crypto ETF Approved by SEC, Can Include Up to 15 Crypto Assets
the actively managed crypto ETF launched by T. Rowe Price was approved by the U.S. SEC on June 12, 2026, marking a key step toward its listing on NYSE Arca. Although the product has not yet begun trading, it is close to being officially opened to investors.The ETF plans to allocate between 5 and 15 crypto assets. The current draft shows it will cover major assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana, and XRP, along with highly volatile tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), reflecting a strategy to expand into a broader digital asset portfolio. The approval process accelerated since April 2026, during which T. Rowe Price submitted multiple revised proposals. The SEC formally approved the second amended filing on June 12, indicating growing regulatory acceptance of multi-asset crypto ETF structures.Market analysts believe that if the product successfully launches, it will further expand institutional investors' compliant exposure to diversified crypto assets and could set a regulatory precedent for more actively managed multi-currency crypto ETFs in the future. (intellectia)
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Exhibits a Market Structure of “Selling Pressure Paused, but Buying Not Yet Confirmed”
The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that Bitcoin held its $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655. This rally stems more from exhaustion of selling pressure than from new demand: open interest in futures has declined significantly from its May highs; short-term holders have been selling at a loss; and exchange balances have dropped to a seven-year low—indicating the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and release of selling pressure. Short-term holders remain broadly underwater by approximately 17%–19%, suggesting substantial potential overhead supply remains.
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
analysts: Bitcoin Enters a Phase of Recovery and Selling Pressure Coexisting, SpaceX IPO Stirs the Market
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that this week, the market was significantly impacted by SpaceX's massive IPO, drawing risk concerns across asset classes. Although the overall risk appetite indicator remains in a deviation zone, it has provided some relief in terms of market sentiment. For Bitcoin, this week marks a recovery phase from the low of $60,000. However, structural selling pressure persists. Data shows a weekly net outflow of about 20,900 BTC from exchanges, indicating that the ongoing selling pressure has not fully eased. The short-term rebound is primarily driven by short covering, as accumulated short positions over the past month are being liquidated intensively, forming periodic price support. Additionally, pressure on miners has begun to emerge. The overall risk appetite has not yet clearly turned positive, and the market is in a transitional state of "repair and deleveraging coexisting."
Trader Chuanmu: SPCX’s Market Cap Share at Listing Similar to Facebook’s Back Then
trader Chuanmu posted on platform X, stating that when Facebook went public, its total market cap accounted for 0.086% of the U.S. stock market. Today, when SPCX got listed, this figure stands at 0.11%, making the two quite close.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Temporary Shift Toward Neutral Global Risk Appetite, Coupled with SpaceX IPO, Eases Market Sentiment
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
Bitcoin Market Faces Structural Pressure: BTC Flows into Exchanges, Stablecoin Outflows Weaken Rebound Momentum
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
Arthur Hayes: Rising Oil Prices, AI-Related IPOs, and Trump's Anti-AI Rhetoric Could Pop the AI Bubble and Drag Down the Crypto Market
Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
Polymarket: "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" probability rises to 53%, up 36% in 24H
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 53%, a 24-hour increase of 36%.Market rules: If between 17:35 on November 24, 2025, and 23:59 on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the lowest price (Low) of any 1-minute candlestick of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair reaches or falls below the price stated in the title, this market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Settlement is based solely on the 1-minute candlestick data of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.In previous news, the privacy coin Zcash disclosed and fixed a critical security vulnerability that could have been exploited by malicious miners to transfer over 25,000 ZEC (approximately $6.5 million) from the deprecated Sprout privacy pool. Officials stated that the vulnerability had existed since July 2020 but was not actually exploited, and user funds remained safe at all times. The development team has released version v6.12.0 to complete the fix, and major mining pools have already upgraded their deployments.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Dragonfly Partner: Zcash Vulnerability Incident Overhyped by Market, Majority of Holders Unaffected
Haseeb, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, has addressed the recently patched Zcash vulnerability, stating that there are many misconceptions in the market regarding the incident. He pointed out that even if the vulnerability had been exploited before the fix, an attacker could only profit by forging ZEC within the shielded pool. For these tokens to enter mainstream trading platforms, they would first need to be converted from shielded addresses to transparent addresses. Since the supply of ZEC in transparent addresses is publicly verifiable, any abnormal transfers exceeding the maximum supply would be detected and blocked. Therefore, the vast majority of investors and exchange users holding transparent ZEC would not be affected.Haseeb stated that the Zcash team plans to introduce a new “Turnstile” mechanism and a new shielded pool in future upgrades to verify that the current shielded pool does not suffer from inflation issues. He also noted that formally verified cryptographic systems can reduce implementation errors at the design level. Finally, Haseeb disclosed that Dragonfly still holds ZEC, and he is personally an investor in ZODL.
ZEC Treasury Company Cypherpunk Responds to Market Volatility: All Software Contains Vulnerabilities; Formal Verification Will Enhance Security
Cypherpunk, the ZEC treasury company, responded on X to the market volatility of the ZEC token, stating that all software contains vulnerabilities and citing the historical Bitcoin incident in which a bug led to the accidental minting of 184 billion BTC. However, this does not mean blockchain technology should be abandoned; instead, security should be enhanced through formal verification and provable correctness.
Polymarket: ZachXBT Reports Security Incident Related to Internal Operational Wallet Private Key Leakage; User Funds and Market Settlement Secure
Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.
Syndicate Labs Decides to Shut Down Due to Severe Market Contraction
Syndicate Labs stated that after five years of developing on-chain infrastructure for customizable Ethereum Rollups and sequencers, the company has decided to shut down due to a drastic contraction in the Rollup market. Syndicate Labs previously completed a $20 million Series A funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz in 2021.This decision caused the SYND token price to drop 21% in the past three hours, hitting an all-time low of $0.012, a 99.5% decline from its peak of $2.61 in September 2025.Additionally, Syndicate Labs stated that the Syndicate Network Collective operates independently of Syndicate Labs, so the governance of the SYND token will not be immediately affected. The decision to shut down was not influenced by the previous hacking incident involving bridged assets.
IREN Acquires Spanish AI Data Center Developer Nostrum, Enters European Market
IREN, an AI infrastructure company transformed from a Bitcoin mining firm, has announced the acquisition of Spanish AI data center developer Ingenostrum, S.L., also known as the Nostrum Group, officially entering the European market.The transaction adds approximately 490 megawatts of secured, grid-connected power resources for IREN and brings a pipeline of AI data center development projects in Spain. The Nostrum team comprises over 50 employees covering development, engineering, construction, and operations.IREN stated that Europe is one of the largest and fastest-growing AI infrastructure markets globally, and Spain, with its abundant renewable energy and strong fiber-optic connectivity, serves as a key gateway to enter the European market.This acquisition is also the latest move in IREN's transformation from a pure Bitcoin mining company into a global provider of AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. This follows IREN's recent announcement to build an 800-megawatt data center campus in South Australia, as well as signing a multi-billion dollar AI cloud agreement with Microsoft and establishing a partnership with Nvidia. Following the news, IREN's stock price rose nearly 4% on Monday to approximately $62.
UBS: Falling Oil Prices Will Ease Pressure on Fed Rate Hikes
Leslie Falconio, currently serving as the head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that following reports of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which suppressed oil prices and triggered a rally in U.S. Treasuries, the pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year is easing.Leslie Falconio pointed out that even before the ceasefire, as oil prices fell, "the two-year yield was still rising because the market was pricing in nearly 100% probability of a rate hike by December 2026." "What is happening now is that oil prices are falling, and the market is stripping out these rate hike expectations. That is why the two-year yield is declining."New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will chair his first monetary policy decision meeting this week. As surging crude oil prices accelerate inflation, voices within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supporting rate hikes this year are growing louder. Leslie Falconio expects the FOMC to formally remove its accommodative bias at this week's meeting, paving the way for a more hawkish outlook. However, she stated that she still expects the next move to be a rate cut, likely in 2027. (Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve’s New Chair Warsh Set for Debut, Market Expects Benchmark Rate to Hold at 3.50%-3.75%
The global financial market's attention will be focused on Washington this week as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first post-confirmation FOMC press conference. This marks not only his transition from a policy commentator to the "world's most powerful banker," but also a critical window for the outside world to observe whether a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is underway.The market widely expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during this week's meeting. Compared to the specific rate decision, the market is more focused on how Warsh will reshape the Fed's "art of communication." For a long time, former Chair Powell tended to guide market expectations through transparent "forward guidance," but Warsh has previously expressed reservations about this approach publicly, arguing that the Fed should not provide too many interest rate hints to the market.This meeting will also release the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot." For Warsh, who has a strong aversion to the dot plot, this is undoubtedly an awkward beginning, as he must find a balance between respecting the Fed's decision-making mechanism and articulating his own policy preferences. (Reuters)
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Michael Saylor Releases Bitcoin Tracker Again; Market Eyes Strategy’s Potential Bitcoin Purchase Disclosure Next Week
Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy, once again shared content related to the Bitcoin Tracker, captioning it “Still adding dots.” Based on its prior posting pattern, the market expects the company to disclose new Bitcoin acquisition data next week.
US CFTC Issues Exemption Letter Allowing Exchanges to Convert Existing Crypto Perpetual Futures into True Perpetual Contract Structures
the Market Oversight Division of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an exemption letter to Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), permitting them to convert their existing "perpetual-like" digital commodity futures contracts into true crypto perpetual futures contracts. This policy is an extension of previous regulatory clarifications and specifically applies to digital commodities such as Bitcoin, which have deep, active, and continuous spot market trading.According to the document, DCMs may remove the expiration date from existing contracts and convert them into true perpetual contracts, provided they meet certain conditions. These requirements include soliciting feedback from position holders, providing advance notice and offering opportunities to close positions, conducting adequate risk disclosures, and ensuring that other key contract terms remain unaltered. Additionally, exchanges must submit amendment filings in accordance with CFTC Rules 40.5 or 40.6 and complete compliance certification.
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Robinhood's Self-Built Prediction Market Rothera Sees Daily Trading Data Reach New Highs
According to data from Hood House, Robinhood's investment research community, on June 14, all trading metrics for Robinhood's self-built prediction market Rothera hit new all-time highs. Specifically: contract trading volume reached 109 million contracts, up 56% from the previous day; the corresponding U.S. dollar trading volume was $39.3 million, up 88% from the previous day; and open interest reached 69.7 million contracts, up 12% from the previous day.
IREN Acquires Spanish AI Data Center Developer Nostrum, Enters European Market
IREN, an AI infrastructure company transformed from a Bitcoin mining firm, has announced the acquisition of Spanish AI data center developer Ingenostrum, S.L., also known as the Nostrum Group, officially entering the European market.The transaction adds approximately 490 megawatts of secured, grid-connected power resources for IREN and brings a pipeline of AI data center development projects in Spain. The Nostrum team comprises over 50 employees covering development, engineering, construction, and operations.IREN stated that Europe is one of the largest and fastest-growing AI infrastructure markets globally, and Spain, with its abundant renewable energy and strong fiber-optic connectivity, serves as a key gateway to enter the European market.This acquisition is also the latest move in IREN's transformation from a pure Bitcoin mining company into a global provider of AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. This follows IREN's recent announcement to build an 800-megawatt data center campus in South Australia, as well as signing a multi-billion dollar AI cloud agreement with Microsoft and establishing a partnership with Nvidia. Following the news, IREN's stock price rose nearly 4% on Monday to approximately $62.
UBS: Falling Oil Prices Will Ease Pressure on Fed Rate Hikes
Leslie Falconio, currently serving as the head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that following reports of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which suppressed oil prices and triggered a rally in U.S. Treasuries, the pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year is easing.Leslie Falconio pointed out that even before the ceasefire, as oil prices fell, "the two-year yield was still rising because the market was pricing in nearly 100% probability of a rate hike by December 2026." "What is happening now is that oil prices are falling, and the market is stripping out these rate hike expectations. That is why the two-year yield is declining."New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will chair his first monetary policy decision meeting this week. As surging crude oil prices accelerate inflation, voices within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supporting rate hikes this year are growing louder. Leslie Falconio expects the FOMC to formally remove its accommodative bias at this week's meeting, paving the way for a more hawkish outlook. However, she stated that she still expects the next move to be a rate cut, likely in 2027. (Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve’s New Chair Warsh Set for Debut, Market Expects Benchmark Rate to Hold at 3.50%-3.75%
The global financial market's attention will be focused on Washington this week as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first post-confirmation FOMC press conference. This marks not only his transition from a policy commentator to the "world's most powerful banker," but also a critical window for the outside world to observe whether a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is underway.The market widely expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during this week's meeting. Compared to the specific rate decision, the market is more focused on how Warsh will reshape the Fed's "art of communication." For a long time, former Chair Powell tended to guide market expectations through transparent "forward guidance," but Warsh has previously expressed reservations about this approach publicly, arguing that the Fed should not provide too many interest rate hints to the market.This meeting will also release the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot." For Warsh, who has a strong aversion to the dot plot, this is undoubtedly an awkward beginning, as he must find a balance between respecting the Fed's decision-making mechanism and articulating his own policy preferences. (Reuters)
AI chip company Enflame Technology's STAR Market IPO approved
Odaily News According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) official website, the STAR Market IPO application of Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Enflame") has been reviewed and approved by the exchange's listing review committee. Enflame initiated its IPO辅导 in August 2024 and completed the辅导 evaluation in January this year. Notably, the company changed its sponsor from CICC to CITIC Securities in October last year, and its listing application was accepted by the SSE on January 12, 2025.According to the prospectus, Enflame Technology plans to raise 6 billion yuan for the research and development and industrialization projects of its fifth-generation AI chip series, the research and development and industrialization projects of its sixth-generation AI chip series, and an advanced AI software and hardware collaborative innovation project. (Caixin)
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Exhibits a Market Structure of “Selling Pressure Paused, but Buying Not Yet Confirmed”
The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that Bitcoin held its $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655. This rally stems more from exhaustion of selling pressure than from new demand: open interest in futures has declined significantly from its May highs; short-term holders have been selling at a loss; and exchange balances have dropped to a seven-year low—indicating the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and release of selling pressure. Short-term holders remain broadly underwater by approximately 17%–19%, suggesting substantial potential overhead supply remains.