News linked to both this project and an event.
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
In response to the news that “SpaceX will stop accepting new commercial orders for the Falcon 9,” Futurum Equities Chief Market Strategist Shay Boloor stated that if Starship fails to achieve successful commercialization by 2028, this shift could create a significant gap in rocket launch capabilities, potentially benefiting second-tier launch service providers such as Rocket Lab (RKLB).This morning, sources revealed that SpaceX has begun declining exclusive commercial launch orders for the Falcon 9 scheduled after 2028, and has suspended accepting new reservations for its Rideshare program, in order to accelerate the transition to Starship.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that HedgeEye has joined the prediction market ETF race, launching Democratic and Republican prediction ETFs. Each ETF will continuously track its respective party's electoral performance in U.S. federal elections.
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released a weekly US stock strategy report on July 20. The report pointed out that the trend of market breadth expansion continues, and the momentum trading risks in the semiconductor sector have not yet been fully released. The silver stock price analogy model shows that semiconductors may have about 15% downside potential in the short term, and earnings revision breadth has retreated from historical extremes. Over the past two months, the consumer durables and transportation sectors outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 12 percentage points respectively, and the equal-weight index continues to outperform the market-cap weighted index. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley continues to recommend overweighting cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon) and underweighting semiconductors within the technology sector. The equal-weighted P/E ratio of the four major giants has fallen back to 21 times. Consumer durables and transportation are the clearest directions for capital inflows, with the earnings revision breadth of the transportation sector reaching the strongest level since 2021. Market style is gradually shifting towards quality factors, with earnings revision breadth for high gross margin and high sales stability factors continuing to strengthen. The S&P 500 year-end target is 8,000 points, with 7,000 points being a key technical support level.
According to the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "Bitcoin July Price" prediction market, BTC currently has a 75% probability of reaching $67,500, a 34% probability of reaching $70,000, and a 12% probability of reaching $72,500.Recently, Bitcoin has continued its rebound trend. According to OKX data, BTC approached $67,000 last night, with market sentiment steadily warming. Additionally, the previously bullish whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" took profits and exited early yesterday morning, but posted on X platform, stating, "The trend remains bullish; this is simply taking profits and securing gains."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Odaily Odaily News Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report on Robinhood that the platform's prediction market revenue could surpass its cryptocurrency trading revenue as early as the second quarter of this year. It is expected that by 2028, Robinhood's prediction market business will generate nearly $2 billion in annual revenue.Additionally, Bernstein has raised its price target for HOOD from $130 to $160.
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.
According to monitoring by ScenarioX, an analyst at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's 30-day spot demand has deteriorated again to nearly -170,000 BTC after briefly rebounding to approximately -80,000 BTC in early July. Despite the significant decline in spot demand, the BTC price currently remains relatively stable, supported by eased short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market. ScenarioX noted that current derivatives demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward trend on its own, and the overall market structure is relatively fragile. If spot selling pressure reignites, it may trigger a sharp downturn; if spot selling remains sluggish, a derivatives-driven technical rebound may continue, but in the absence of substantial spot demand support, such rebounds will most likely end with large-scale long liquidations.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, the three major memory chip companies, have all seen their stock prices decline this month, presenting an opportunity for investors to reposition themselves in the rapidly growing storage chip industry.Market concerns are rising that the current memory chip boom driven by AI demand may slow down in the coming years, potentially repeating the "expansion – oversupply – downturn" cycle commonly seen in this cyclical industry.Analysts point out that investors looking to enter the memory chip sector at this stage need to believe in the sustainability of AI-driven storage demand growth and be able to withstand the risks associated with industry cyclical fluctuations.In terms of investment strategy, one approach is to focus on companies with the lowest valuations. Samsung, currently trading at a relatively low valuation among the three major memory chip firms, could be a choice for some investors seeking exposure to the growth opportunities in the storage chip industry. (The Information)
according to Arkham monitoring, 84 million BANK tokens have been transferred from a suspected BANK Foundation wallet, BANK Foundation Wallet (0xEde6…3B11a), to a new address (0x5721…22Bd8). Subsequently, this address transferred the relevant tokens to the Aster deposit address (0x1284…87974).Market data shows: The price of BANK tokens has surged significantly over the past few days, rising more than threefold, and is now quoted at approximately $0.16.
as the market sees a lower probability of a major shock to the U.S. dollar in the short term, the cost for investors to hedge against dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level this year.Data shows that the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's 1-month implied volatility gauge, which measures expectations for dollar fluctuations, dropped to its lowest level since last December this week. This marks a clear decline from the market volatility peak triggered by the outbreak of the Iran war in March this year.Market participants believe that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, traders are not currently anticipating a risk of sharp volatility for the dollar.As the world's primary reserve currency, the dollar's safe-haven demand and interest rate trends have always been closely watched by the market. The current decline in dollar volatility reflects investors' reduced concerns about the future exchange rate environment, while also indicating that the market is awaiting the emergence of new macro catalysts. (Bloomberg)
ARK Invest's "The Bitcoin Quarterly" report for Q2 2026 indicates Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, closing around $58,544, and broke below three major technical moving averages. Historically, this technical pattern is often associated with bearish market conditions. The report shows that despite price pressure, Bitcoin Long-term Holders continued to accumulate, pushing their holdings to a new all-time high of approximately 14.85 million BTC, absorbing coins released during the market correction.ARK Invest stated that on-chain data is signaling signs of seller exhaustion: the supply of BTC in loss exceeds the supply in profit, and the rate of realized losses once surpassed the rate of realized profits. Historically, similar phenomena have often clustered near the bottom of market cycles.The report also pointed out that institutional demand in the Bitcoin market is facing pressure. Both corporate Bitcoin reserves (Treasury Companies) and the ETF ecosystem have shown signs of weakness:The STRC preferred stock price once fell to approximately $74.57, below its $100 par value;U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows totaling approximately 70,000 BTC.ARK Invest believes that ETF outflows indicate a weakening of important marginal buying pressure for Bitcoin, but continued accumulation by long-term holders suggests a redistribution of coins is occurring within the market.The firm stated that a clear divergence is currently forming between BTC's price performance and the behavior of long-term holders. Historical data shows that such divergences can often serve as important observation signals for market cycle turning points.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin miners are currently facing severe operational pressure, with their financial health indicators dropping to levels seen during historical bear market high-pressure phases. Analyzing multiple data dimensions including miner issuance revenue, block time, transaction fees, and overall revenue, the Miner Financial Health Ratio (7-day average) is currently fluctuating within the 10% to 30% range, reflecting significant pressure on mining enterprises' profitability, as similar low levels typically only appear near peak bear market periods.
According to STAR Market Daily, Morgan Stanley issued a report indicating that TSMC's 2026 full-year revenue guidance significantly exceeded expectations. The company raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to over 40% year-on-year, previously over 30%. Management attributed the upward revision to strong AI demand, despite challenges in consumer demand. Cloud Service Providers (CSP) customers are rapidly increasing cloud capital expenditure. TSMC did not update its AI semiconductor revenue CAGR forecast, but stated that actual performance is higher than the previous forecast of 55%-60%. The bank believes a 70% to 80% CAGR for TSMC's AI semiconductor business is a reasonable assumption. The bank raised its target price from 2,888 New Taiwan Dollars to 2,988 New Taiwan Dollars, maintaining an "Overweight" rating. In a volatile market environment, the company's quality profitability should continue to attract capital inflows; next, the 2026 second-quarter cloud capital expenditure updates announced by CSP customers will be an important catalyst.
The current Bitcoin Market State Score is +34.7, within the bullish zone; Market State Confidence, reflecting the consistency of the model's components, has risen to 79.4%, approaching the high confidence threshold.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that BlackRock’s second-quarter revenue increased 31% year-over-year to $7.1 billion, with adjusted operating income up 39% to $2.9 billion. AUM reached $15.3 trillion, with net inflows of $868 billion over the past 12 months. BlackRock has filed two registration statements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for tokenized money market funds. One proposal aims to create a tokenized share class for an existing fund on Ethereum, while the other is a digital-native strategy. BlackRock’s iShares ETF platform has AUM exceeding $6 trillion, with net inflows of $178 billion in the second quarter. Its digital asset-related AUM stands at approximately $110 billion, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust, Ethereum Trust, and BUIDL remaining the largest products in their respective categories. BlackRock also manages the $60 billion in reserves of stablecoin issuer Circle. The company has increased its 2026 stock buyback plan to $2 billion and repurchased $450 million worth of shares in the second quarter.
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), the proportion of loss-making UTXOs in the Bitcoin market continues to expand, and the loss/profit UTXO ratio has risen to an extreme range, a level that has historically only appeared during periods of deep stress in bear markets. Darkfost pointed out that this indicator measures market sentiment by calculating the ratio of the number of profit and loss UTXOs, is not distorted by the absolute value of BTC price, and has strong historical consistency. Current readings indicate significant holding loss pressure, suggesting certain accumulation value from a long-term perspective; however, caution is warranted when market sentiment shifts, as a rapid climb in the number of profit-making UTXOs could drive the ratio sharply higher, which may then signal an intermediate top.
According to Odaily, Citrini analyst jukan posted on platform X that The Information reports DeepSeek's ARR is nearing $500 million, and the company has successfully raised $7.4 billion in funding. DeepSeek is designing a second funding round to allow it to raise dollar-denominated capital from overseas investors, with a particular focus on attracting investment from the Middle East. DeepSeek has also hired investment banks to prepare for an IPO on the Shanghai STAR Market, targeting a listing next year. By selling access to its latest flagship model V4, DeepSeek maintains a gross margin of over 50%.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually transferring holdings to a new round of buyers. Glassnode's RHODL Ratio began to decline after reaching a historical second-high of 6.5 in early July and has now fallen below 6, but the Bitcoin price remains trading sideways around the $60,000 range, with no significant panic selling observed.
According to The Block, Mizuho Bank analysts noted that while Circle's approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank helps enhance its compliance credibility, it is insufficient to resolve current core pressures—the continued shrinkage of USDC market cap and increasingly fierce competition from Open USD—which still constitute a significant drag on $CRCL stock price.