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Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF, Allocating 15% of Positions to Kalshi and Polymarket Private Assets

Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.

Analyst: Bitcoin Market Structure Improves, Spot Demand Still Needs Confirmation of Breakout

CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated that the Bitcoin market structure remains constructive, but subsequent price action depends on whether genuine spot demand can absorb market supply. ETF holdings continue to rise, indicating that institutional investors are still accumulating BTC, and large investors are also forming buy-side support near current price levels.

Over 100,000 users cannot be guaranteed full asset recovery; Chilean exchange Orionx suspends withdrawals and gradually winds down operations

Bitcoin News posted on the X platform that Chilean cryptocurrency exchange Orionx suspended withdrawals and gradually wound down operations after a forensic audit revealed that over $7 million had been transferred to wallets beyond its control. Orionx has filed a criminal complaint naming founders Joaquín Díaz and Roberto Zibert, alleging that client assets were used in external trades between 2018 and 2021. Chile's Financial Market Commission stated that Orionx continued operating after its fintech business authorization was rejected in July. More than 100,000 users are not guaranteed full recovery of their assets.

DWF Labs: BTC and ETH ETFs See Net Inflows Exceeding $1 Billion for Third Consecutive Week, Spot Market Driving This Rally

Odaily News DWF Labs stated that last week, BTC and ETH ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of approximately $1.2 billion, marking the third consecutive week with inflows exceeding $1 billion — the first time since July 2025. Among this, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of around $987 million, with a single-day inflow of $731 million on September 3, ranking as the third highest this year. The AUM of BTC ETFs rose to $103.3 billion, accounting for approximately 6.32% of BTC's total supply.Meanwhile, open interest denominated in BTC dropped from 762,200 BTC in mid-August to 669,600 BTC. Over the same period, BTC climbed from around $63,000 to $80,000, indicating that the recent price movement has been driven more by spot capital flows rather than leverage.

Polymarket probability of "foldable iPhone US launch price above $2,300" drops to 15%, down 35% in a week

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket that the "foldable iPhone's US launch price will exceed $2,300" has dropped to 15%, down 35% over the past week; the probability of it exceeding $2,200 has fallen to 42%, down 17% week-over-week.The event contract rules state: any foldable smartphone released by Apple will be considered a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly named as such. If the price of the foldable iPhone at its initial US launch is greater than or equal to the specified amount, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If Apple releases multiple foldable iPhone models, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not announce the price of the foldable iPhone by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market will resolve to "No."According to an official announcement from Apple, the fall 2026 new product launch event will be held at 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10, themed "Surprise and shine." However, pricing for the device unexpectedly leaked from overseas carrier Vodafone's backend systems in Australia and Egypt. The Australian channel reveals that the iPhone Ultra will be available in 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB storage options, starting at AUD 3,699. Industry observers estimate that the US starting price for the Ultra could land near $2,000.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.

QCP: US Employment Data Beats Expectations, Crypto Market Focus Shifts to Inflation and Fed Policy

According to QCP's market report, in the crypto market, Bitcoin initially climbed above $82,000 early in the week before pulling back to around $79,300; Ethereum remained steady at approximately $2,500. From September 1 to 4, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million in net inflows, indicating that institutional capital continues to participate in market pricing.

BonkGuy: Searching for Early-Stage Tokens with a Market Cap Below $1 Million

Renowned trader BonkGuy posted on X, stating that he is currently looking for low-market-cap tokens with a valuation below $1 million, aiming to find projects still in their very early stages that have the potential to grow into multi-billion-dollar entities in the future.BonkGuy noted that he does not want the community to recommend tokens with a market cap of around $50 million anymore, and urged the community to keep suggesting low-cap projects until he decides to invest in one of them.

Korean Retail Investors Shift from Individual Stocks to Leveraged ETFs in September: Heavy Selling of Nvidia and SK Hynix

According to data from South Korea's securities information portal, between September 1 and 4, Korean individual investors significantly reduced their holdings in multiple U.S. semiconductor stocks while rotating into leveraged semiconductor ETFs. During this period, Korean retail investors net sold over $100 million worth of Micron, $68.61 million of SanDisk, $49.37 million of Marvell Technology, and $15.56 million of Nvidia. SK Hynix's ADR, which debuted on the NYSE in July, also saw net selling of $46.16 million during the same period, following cumulative net purchases of $811 million through the end of August.Conversely, Korean retail investors net purchased $431 million of SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares), which aims to deliver 3x the daily return of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.Market analysts suggest that this "selling individual stocks, buying the sector" approach may reflect Korean retail investors reducing single-chipmaker exposure risk while continuing to bet on upside in the broader semiconductor sector. After the sharp rally in semiconductor stocks, some investors may be taking profits at the individual stock level while maintaining or even expanding their overall semiconductor exposure through leveraged ETFs. (Daum)

Orionx Halts Operations and Suspends Withdrawals, Audit Reveals Over $7 Million Funding Gap

Odaily News: Chilean cryptocurrency exchange Orionx has announced it is ceasing operations and suspending user withdrawals. A forensic audit has found that over $7 million in custodial assets were transferred to wallets outside the company's control, resulting in a funding shortfall.Orionx has accused two founding partners, Joaquín Díaz and Roberto Zibert, along with other former employees, of involvement in the related transactions and has filed a report with Chile's National Prosecutor's Office. The complaint alleges the transactions occurred between 2018 and 2021.Chile's Financial Market Commission (CMF) stated that Orionx was not authorized to offer cryptocurrency financial services and that its operations did not comply with the Fintech Law. Orionx has stated that it cannot guarantee users will recover all their funds. (Bitcoin.com News)

Bonk Guy Names Three Tokens: USELESS, MARSCOIN, PONS May Be First to Hit $1B Market Cap

Odaily News: Well-known trader Bonk Guy posted on the X platform, stating that the three tokens USELESS, MARSCOIN, and PONS are expected to become the fastest projects in their respective niche tracks to reach a $1 billion market cap in the new cycle. He noted that USELESS, MARSCOIN, and PONS respectively represent two core narratives in the current market: USELESS and MARSCOIN serve as the "barbell ends" of the Meme track, while PONS represents the utility track. He also called on the community: "LOCK IN!".

Trump: Pushing Hyperliquid to Enter the U.S. Market in a Compliant Manner

Odaily News – U.S. President Trump stated that his administration is pushing the decentralized perpetual contract trading platform Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market in a "fully compliant and legal manner." Last month, Trump said the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would work to facilitate Hyperliquid's entry into the U.S. market. Subsequently, Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced it is cooperating with the CFTC to offer registered U.S. users certain crypto perpetual contract products related to Hyperliquid's market and its underlying Layer 1 blockchain through the CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard believes this arrangement could allow Hyperliquid to provide some of its underlying technology, liquidity, or market design without directly opening its existing platform to U.S. users—essentially building a standalone U.S. market product around Hyperliquid's infrastructure. He noted that U.S. users may have access to fewer markets, lower leverage, and more conservative risk controls. At the same time, he opposes comprehensive KYC implementation, arguing that a one-size-fits-all KYC approach would undermine legitimate users' privacy and permissionless access rights, and would push liquidity toward offshore markets.

Uniswap Founder Hayden: Correlated Trading Pairs Will Drive AMMs into Global Financial Markets

Odaily News Uniswap founder Hayden said on X that correlated trading pairs are emerging. The top five tokenized SPY trading pairs by volume are "bridge" pairs connecting other common base pairs, which then primarily link to highly correlated tokenized stocks. These markets are global, programmable, low-cost, and operate 24/7.Uniswap founder Hayden said on X:.I've been working at the frontier of DeFi for 9 years. It's a fascinating field with infinite depth and the potential to transform capital markets.I've always believed AMMs hold immense potential, but for the past decade, one question has persisted: Can this novel market structure truly become the core engine for all financial markets?After years of evolution and development, the path for AMMs to achieve global dominance is becoming increasingly clear. To explain this, we need to start in 1976.Tokenization Changes Market Makers.Index funds celebrated their 50th anniversary this month. When Jack Bogle launched the index fund in 1976, he hoped to raise $150 million but ultimately raised only $11.3 million. Competitors called it "Bogle's Folly," posting posters claiming index funds were un-American. They argued that a fund making no decisions couldn't possibly beat professionals paid to make decisions. Today, the majority of US fund assets are allocated to passive investment vehicles.I've been thinking about this recently because tokenization's "folly moment" is ending. The SEC has approved NASDAQ and the NYSE to trade tokenized stocks. DTCC, which handles virtually all US securities settlement, also conducted a live pilot of tokenized trades in July. Nearly all related activity is described the same way: treating tokenization as an infrastructure upgrade.The same markets, faster, cheaper, and always open. These statements are all true, but I believe the infrastructure upgrade framework obscures a larger change. Tokenization makes markets programmable, changing how markets exist, who makes markets, and what is traded.In 2018, I created Uniswap, an automated market maker protocol. Anyone can deposit two assets into a shared liquidity pool and earn fees from every trade, while prices adjust along a curve as users buy and sell. Uniswap has operated autonomously since its launch, processing over $4.6 trillion in cumulative volume and increasing DEX spot volume share from under 1% to over 20%.As AMMs like Uniswap continue to evolve, their liquidity has formed a pattern most financial markets haven't noticed yet: correlated trading pairs.The Easiest Place to Find Success.To succeed everywhere, you must first succeed somewhere. AMMs found product-market fit in long-tail markets because most assets previously couldn't attract professional market makers' attention. On Uniswap, anyone can create a market with a single transaction, and issuers and early supporters can become the first liquidity providers.Then came stablecoin pairs. Take USDC/USDT, for example. A good passive strategy can approach optimal l

Analysis: Yen Strength Boosts Bitcoin, but Carry Trade Risks Are Rising

According to Odaily, the yen has continued to strengthen recently, pushing the U.S. dollar index (DXY) lower and providing short-term support for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Data shows that the U.S. dollar against the yen (USD/JPY) fell 1.4% intraday to 156.40, after already declining 0.9% on Wednesday; the euro, pound, and Australian dollar all edged higher against the dollar. As a result, the DXY fell 0.4% to 99.22, approaching its 200-day moving average.Analysts believe this trend typically favors dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, while also helping to ease global financial conditions and boost market risk appetite. However, if the yen appreciates too rapidly, this logic could quickly reverse.Over the past decade-plus, many investors have used low-cost yen financing to invest in stocks, bonds, and even cryptocurrencies. If the yen appreciates sharply, yen carry trades could unwind, triggering a sell-off in risk assets. When yen carry trades were unwound in August 2024, Bitcoin fell roughly 20% within days.Market expectations are currently growing that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% on September 18, and the yen continues to face further appreciation pressure. Reports also indicate that officials from the U.S. and Japan have previously taken action to address "disorderly yen movements." Therefore, while a moderate yen appreciation is currently favorable for Bitcoin, if it evolves into a rapid, disorderly appreciation, it could instead become a risk factor for BTC. (CoinDesk)

Analysis: Decoupling of U.S. Treasury Yields and USD Exchange Rates May Shift Forex Market Logic and Drive Up Bitcoin Safe-Haven Demand

According to CoinDesk, as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed 58 basis points year-to-date to 4.81%, the U.S. Dollar Index rose merely 0.9% to 99.22, signaling the breakdown of the traditional "higher yields drive a stronger dollar" logic. Japan's government bond yields surged 90 basis points this year, yet the yen fell to a 40-year low, and Germany's 10-year yield rose 45 basis points concurrently without the euro showing significant strength. Analysts note that markets may have begun interpreting rising yields as a signal of fiscal strain rather than fiscal robustness. This logical shift poses a potential tailwind for Bitcoin — amidst expectations of government debt monetization and currency devaluation, hard assets with inelastic supply, such as Bitcoin and gold, may attract safe-haven capital inflows.

Market cap exceeds $500 million; a trader goes long on 447,100 PONS with 4x leverage and earns $8,600 in profit

Odaily News: According to Lookonchain monitoring, PONS market cap has surpassed $500 million. A trader (0xe3b...aB62) deposited $54,000 into Aster DEX 6 hours ago, then opened a long position on 447,100 PONS with 4x leverage, bringing the position value to $226,000. The unrealized profit currently stands at $8,600, representing a return rate of 15%.

Not fully liquidated; XXAntiWar transferred 17.57 million tokens accumulated at a cost of approximately $1.787 million to 7 addresses, still at a floating loss

Odaily News, according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, since August 30, two addresses associated with @XXAntiWar have spent approximately $1.787 million in total to build positions in Niu Lai (Bull Market), with an average entry price below $0.086. Most of these positions were established when Niu Lai’s market cap reached $86 million. In recent days, the related addresses have transferred 17.57 million Niu Lai tokens to 7 addresses through multiple intermediaries, which should still be at a floating loss. Although Fomo shows that @XXAntiWar has fully exited its positions, this is actually due to the fact that the new holding addresses have not yet been recorded.

Bonkguy: The Recent Robinhood and BNB Chain Movements May Just Be a Warm-Up, with the Real Trend Potentially Starting in Q4

Odaily Odaily News Trader Bonkguy (unipcs) posted on platform X, stating that for those who missed the recent moves on Robinhood and BNB Chain, these movements may only be a warm-up. This typically occurs in the early stages of a new bull market cycle, or right before the market is about to accelerate. The real trend may begin in the fourth quarter, and when compared to it, the recent movements may only appear as minor fluctuations.Many people missed recent opportunities because they are still affected by their bear market experiences. The defensive habits that protected investors during the bear market may hinder their ability to profit during a bull market. The key lies in recognizing changes in the market environment and adjusting one's mental framework accordingly. Pullbacks will certainly occur as the market develops, but in a genuine bull market, pullbacks are often opportunities to accumulate positions in high-conviction assets. Market volatility may intensify further, and future conditions may exceed what most people expect. Ultimately, those who profit the most may not be the ones trying to predict every single move in the coming days, but rather those who identify the market's direction, position themselves early, and give their judgment enough time to play out.

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Robinhood Rating, Says Prediction Market Business Validates Revenue Expansion Potential

According to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys upgraded Robinhood Markets' stock rating from "underweight" to "overweight," citing that its prediction market business provides "validation" for the company's continued revenue growth. Cyprys noted that Robinhood's prediction market users have surpassed 2 million, contributing $156 million in revenue in the second quarter while also driving users to adopt other products.

Cryptoquant Founder: The Peak of This Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle May Be Driven by Global Institutional and ETF Demand

Odaily News Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of Bitcoin's current bull market cycle may be driven by institutional capital outside the United States and ETF demand. He pointed out that deeper stablecoin liquidity and tokenized asset infrastructure will expand global market participation.Ki Young Ju cited South Korea as an example, noting that the country currently has no spot Bitcoin ETFs, retail investors cannot purchase overseas-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, and most companies are unable to open trading accounts to buy BTC. South Korea has gradually opened up corporate participation in phases, with the Financial Services Commission (FSC) roadmap covering approximately 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors, but financial institutions and other businesses remain excluded.Strategy's Bitcoin bank adoption index evaluated 25 major institutions covering trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate participation, with an overall adoption rate of 32%. As of August 29, RWA.xyz data shows that the distributed asset value of global tokenized assets is $38.63 billion, up 2.65% from 30 days ago.The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated that stablecoins have the potential to enable faster, programmable payments, but current designs may pose financial integrity, liquidity, and monetary risks. Ki Young Ju pointed out that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $57 billion in the first two years since launch, and the next phase will be global institutionalization, with more institutions adopting BTC as a strategic asset, and countries lacking ETFs will also improve relevant investment channels. (Bitcoin.com News)

Whale "Sets 10 Big Goals First": Bull Market Returns Quickly

The whale Set 10 Big Goals First posted The bull should return swiftly, potentially indicating an established long position in Bitcoin. Previously, they noted that their BTC long positions were taken across the 74,000 to 82,000 dollar range, with a stop-loss order to execute if the price drops below 72,000 dollars. They believe BTC exhibits strong upward momentum rebounding from its lows, driven mainly by inflows into spot ETFs. Additionally, the correction in the AI sector and Bitcoin's long-term decoupling from U.S. equities could prompt risk capital to flow back into BTC.