News linked to both this project and an event.
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
According to data disclosed by crypto analyst Scott Melker, Bitcoin short-term holders have recorded the largest loss-taking sell-off in history, while approximately 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders are in a state of unrealized loss, with market sentiment turning extremely pessimistic.Additionally, Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 15.5, its lowest level since the pandemic-induced bear market in March 2020, indicating the market is deeply oversold. Having already fallen below $60,000, the likelihood of Bitcoin testing $50,000 is increasing. However, if it can sustain the key support level at $60,000 in the near term, a rebound toward the 20-day EMA around $70,600 could be possible in the coming weeks.
Crypto analyst Ali posted on X, stating that Coinbase will face a critical technical test next week. If it holds above $141, it could trigger a rebound and potentially rally toward $185; however, if it breaks below this key support level, further downside risk looms, with a potential target near $74. Meanwhile, analyst Hussein Kashmar noted that the weekly support level at $145 is also highly significant—this zone has historically attracted strong buying interest. Market participants are now watching closely to see whether bulls can successfully defend this current support area. Should buying pressure fail to materialize effectively, Coinbase may retreat further into the prior breakout range of $100–$115.
Haseeb, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, has addressed the recently patched Zcash vulnerability, stating that there are many misconceptions in the market regarding the incident. He pointed out that even if the vulnerability had been exploited before the fix, an attacker could only profit by forging ZEC within the shielded pool. For these tokens to enter mainstream trading platforms, they would first need to be converted from shielded addresses to transparent addresses. Since the supply of ZEC in transparent addresses is publicly verifiable, any abnormal transfers exceeding the maximum supply would be detected and blocked. Therefore, the vast majority of investors and exchange users holding transparent ZEC would not be affected.Haseeb stated that the Zcash team plans to introduce a new “Turnstile” mechanism and a new shielded pool in future upgrades to verify that the current shielded pool does not suffer from inflation issues. He also noted that formally verified cryptographic systems can reduce implementation errors at the design level. Finally, Haseeb disclosed that Dragonfly still holds ZEC, and he is personally an investor in ZODL.
Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott stated that mega IPOs from companies like SpaceX, Anthropic PBC, and OpenAI could divert hundreds of billions of dollars away from existing stocks, potentially creating a multi-year drag on the broader equity market.This diversion effect may take some time to materialize, following the S&P Dow Jones Indices' decision not to accelerate the inclusion of these large new issues into its benchmarks. However, in Arnott's view, as these companies' weights within the indexes gradually increase, the impact will naturally take longer to transmit to the rest of the market. Arnott is a pioneer in smart beta investing, and his firm's strategies are adopted by institutions such as Pimco and Invesco. "This is going to disturb the capital markets, and it already is," Arnott said. He is known for his research on fundamental indexing, a methodology that determines index constituent weights based on metrics like earnings and cash flow. (WSJ)
Bitcoin's price is approaching the key support level of $60,000, and a breach below could trigger accelerated selling.Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer of Deribit, stated that $60,000 is more than just a psychological round number; it is a structural threshold with tangible implications for institutional investors and the derivatives market. Over the past year, a significant amount of institutional capital, including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators, purchased BTC at prices between $60,000 and $67,000. As the price approaches these buy zones, investors are near their breakeven point. If the price falls below their cost basis, unrealized losses will increase. This pressure is amplified when traditional markets, such as AI stocks, are rising, raising the opportunity cost of holding BTC and potentially prompting investors to accelerate their selling.The derivatives market is also under strain. Deribit data shows that approximately $1.2 billion in notional value of $60,000 put options remain open. Market makers hedging this risk may be forced to sell spot or futures contracts, thereby accelerating the decline. Simultaneously, there is still a large amount of leveraged long positions in the system. A break below $60,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, intensifying market sell pressure. Péquignot believes that billions of dollars in leveraged long positions have already been liquidated this week. If the $60,000 support level fails, the downward momentum could amplify further, leading to a rapid and chaotic sell-off scenario. (CoinDesk)
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, during ZEC’s sharp price decline, Loracle—a well-known trader on Hyperliquid—saw the unrealized losses on their long positions continuously widen. In response to the downward trend, this address persistently added to its long positions against the market, deploying large sums to “hold firm” through the downturn; it accumulated longs all the way down to near $250, lowering the average entry price from above $500 to $354.
due to profit-taking in AI concept assets and a decline in market risk appetite, Bitcoin has fallen to around $62,000, down nearly 16% from its high of over $74,000 last week. Market analysts believe that if Bitcoin loses the $60,000 mark, its next key technical support level could be around $55,000. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 15 consecutive trading days, totaling over $4.7 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy disclosed this week that it has sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, which has also dampened market expectations for institutional buying.
According to Cointelegraph, U.S. money market fund assets have surpassed $8.28 trillion, setting a new record high, with weekly inflows reaching as high as $66 billion. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates again, and risk-averse sentiment is driving continued capital inflows.
Chainalysis has released a report stating that as demand for gray market peptide products (such as weight loss drugs like semaglutide) grows rapidly, related suppliers and buyers are increasingly using cryptocurrencies for transactions, with leading suppliers primarily relying on Bitcoin and stablecoins.The report shows that crypto funds flowing into this sector reached $32 million in the first quarter of 2026, a 159% increase from $12 million in the previous quarter, with the annualized scale already exceeding $100 million.Chainalysis points out that demand for peptide products is driven by trends in medical aesthetics, health and wellness, and the popularity of GLP-1 drugs. However, since these products often involve prescription-grade compounds or unregulated substances, traditional banks and credit card processors typically restrict their transactions, prompting the market to shift towards crypto payments.The agency also noted that some leading suppliers have adopted more professional on-chain fund management methods. Particularly among suppliers with average single deposits exceeding $1,000, the proportion of stablecoins has significantly increased, likely to mitigate the risk of large supply chain orders being affected by crypto market volatility.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Research, stated that the market experienced a new wave of volatility following Strategy's disclosure on June 1st of selling 32 Bitcoin. Although the sale is negligible compared to its holdings of approximately 840,000 Bitcoin (worth about $55 billion), this rare reduction move still impacted market sentiment.Pandl pointed out that the more noteworthy development is the performance of Strategy’s Variable Rate Preferred Stock STRC (Stretch). The product has a design target price of around $100 and currently offers a dividend yield of 11.5%. When the stock price falls below $100, it indicates that investors are demanding a higher rate of return, which may force the company to increase dividend levels. This would increase future cash flow pressure and potentially compel it to sell more Bitcoin for fundraising, further weighing on BTC prices. Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin reserve model is facing challenges. At current STRC and MSTR share price levels, the company's ability to continue large-scale Bitcoin accumulation may be constrained.However, Pandl noted that in the long term, the migration of Bitcoin holdings from highly leveraged digital asset reserve companies to more diversified corporate balance sheets will help enhance market resilience and improve Bitcoin's long-term value support. He expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trend in the coming months, but its near-term performance may lag behind crypto asset sectors that benefit more directly from regulatory clarity.
According to independent analyst Markus Thielen, Strategy’s recent small-scale Bitcoin sale following its May earnings call was interpreted by the market as a test of market reaction and the flexibility of its capital allocation strategy. Analysts noted that while Strategy remains highly bullish on Bitcoin, the success and expansion of its STRC preferred stock financing instrument may take precedence in its overall financial arrangements. This move breaks the company’s “buy-only, never-sell” market image maintained for nearly six years; given Strategy’s strong influence on Bitcoin demand, this shift is quietly reshaping market expectations.
According to The Block, Bitcoin fell nearly to $72,000 on Monday. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.97 billion. For the week ending May 25–29, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw weekly outflows of $1.42 billion, while global cryptocurrency ETPs recorded $1.67 billion in outflows during the same period.
: Jonas Myrdal, a prosecutor at the Swedish Economic Crime Authority, stated that regarding a post on social platform X about Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) considering a dual listing in the US leaking out early and being officially confirmed by the company approximately 48 hours later, he believes this is not a coincidence but highly likely involves an information leak.Jonas Myrdal pointed out that the relevant information was published and continuously promoted on platform X by an anonymous account with approximately 200,000 followers before its official disclosure. This subsequently triggered a sharp, several-fold increase in the company's stock price within a short period. This behavior pattern is similar to a previous case involving "pump-and-dump" manipulation, in which three individuals were convicted of serious market manipulation offenses. He further recommended that Nasdaq should investigate this incident and assess whether it violates the EU Market Abuse Regulation (MAR). Currently, the source of the suspected information leak is still under investigation.Previously, "New Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X seemingly "touting" Sivers, and stated that after further reviewing Sivers Semiconductors' latest earnings conference call, they are optimistic about its prospects. The company's management indicated that "in a super-cycle where demand far exceeds supply, viewing ecosystem partners as competitors is not the correct approach," reflecting the current strong demand in the photonics industry. Additionally, the photonics business pipeline has grown rapidly over the past five months, driving an overall revenue pipeline increase of 77%. (Marketscreener)
Ethereum continues its weak trend after breaking below the key support level of $2,000. Market analysts warn that short-term "downside pressure" remains dominant, with traders focusing on the defense of the $1,800–$1,750 support zone. CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out that ETH's estimated leverage ratio remains relatively high at around 0.74, and the funding rate has been positive since April, indicating crowded long positions despite the persistent price weakness. The RSI is around 31, approaching oversold territory but without a clear reversal signal yet. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $695 million, with a single-day maximum outflow of about $121 million, reflecting a continued cooling in institutional allocation demand.Currently, ETH maintains a weak structure against the backdrop of high leverage, crowded longs, and persistent ETF outflows. The short-term risk is biased to the downside, making the $1,800 support level a key observation point for both market sentiment and technicals. (Cointelegrap)
Odaily News “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin pointed out in his latest market commentary that, against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively “blockaded” for three months. However, the market has already become “desensitized” to this geopolitical risk, and the AI narrative is reshaping traditional risk pricing logic. As a result, AI is significantly weakening the market's sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical shocks. Since the emergence of ceasefire signals, U.S. stocks have “decoupled” from energy shocks, with gains in chip and tech stocks offsetting the impact from the energy sector, leading the market to gradually overlook the Strait of Hormuz risk. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the AI sector faces short-term risks of overvaluation and crowded trades, and a pullback could occur at any time.In the energy market, the earlier assessment that the Strait of Hormuz risk had not been fully priced in has proven correct. Oil prices had risen due to supply shock expectations, but peaked and then declined following the release of strategic reserves and the U.S. intervention as a “supplier of last resort.” A successful exit was achieved on April 29-30. He believes the current risk-reward ratio for oil prices is no longer attractive.On the macro and equity market front, U.S. households' holdings of stocks as a percentage of financial assets have reached approximately 47%, surpassing the level seen during the internet bubble era. This means a market downturn would, in turn, constrain policy. The VIX volatility index triggered different policy shift thresholds around 30 and 50, reflecting a “risk-off driven policy” characteristic.In the gold market, the recent pullback in gold is not due to the fading of a war premium but rather changes in long-term structural demand. Since 2022, central banks globally have been purchasing gold at an average annual rate of over a thousand tons, primarily for de-dollarization and hedging against sanctions risks. He defines gold as “an ultimate exit tool outside the dollar system” rather than a mere safe-haven asset.In the crypto market, the liquidity inflection point occurred last October, with funds flowing more toward AI assets, leading to a periodic drain from the crypto market. However, he believes the market is currently in a cyclical bear phase. Rebound rallies exist, but they do not equate to the start of a new bull run. The market must wait for liquidity to restart in a new cycle. The AI era is emerging as the dominant capital narrative. Even if a bubble exists, the structural opportunities it brings represent “a rare window of opportunity for ordinary investors.” Nevertheless, market cycle discipline should not be overlooked.
SpaceX officially filed its IPO prospectus last week. However, CEO Elon Musk's recent social media posts detailing the company's computing power leasing agreement with Anthropic have shown clear discrepancies with the prospectus's content. The prospectus states the collaboration will last until 2029, with a monthly rent of $125 million; Musk claims the agreement is merely a 180-day short-term lease, with either party able to terminate the partnership with 90 days' notice.This divergence makes it difficult for investors to assess the company's valuation, and industry experts have raised questions about the standardization of information disclosure. Furthermore, analysts point out that the prospectus is missing several key data points. SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12. The company is currently valued at over one trillion dollars and continues to operate at a loss. (CNBC)