News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Odaily News The prediction market exchange Kalshi has suspended North Carolina Republican House candidate Laurie Buckhout from trading for three years due to her trading of contracts related to her own congressional election. The settlement took effect on Friday, and she is also required to pay a fine of $2,589.96.During her campaign against Democratic Rep. Don Davis for North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, Buckhout purchased related contracts worth less than $1,000. Under Kalshi's rules, candidates are considered persons with direct decision-making influence over outcomes and are prohibited from trading related contracts.Kalshi has previously suspended Minnesota Senator Matt Klein, former Texas congressional candidate Ezekiel Enriquez, and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran for five years each over candidates betting on their own elections. Former Rep. George Santos was permanently banned for trading contracts related to his own attendance at the State of the Union address and was fined $71,356.Buckhout won the Republican primary in March of this year and will face Don Davis again in the election; she previously lost by less than two percentage points in 2024. Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and has processed tens of billions of dollars in trading volume over the past year. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Andy Ross, head of institutional business at Kalshi, said that Kalshi has submitted an application to regulators to launch perpetual contracts based on foreign exchange and interest rates. The application was submitted on Monday and had not appeared in the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) public filing system as of Tuesday afternoon. Previously, the CFTC approved Kalshi to list bitcoin perpetual contracts in May this year, followed by the launch of ETH and XRP perpetual contracts. Since then, Kalshi has continued to expand perpetual contracts beyond cryptocurrencies: it submitted applications for gold, silver, and platinum perpetual contracts in July, and on August 18, it submitted applications for U.S. large-cap stock index and copper perpetual contracts. Ross said Kalshi hopes to bring multiple asset classes such as stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, fixed income, and interest rates into a unified trading interface. Currently, the platform's market count has increased from approximately 4,000 to around 10,000, and activity has gradually spread from a few popular markets to a wider range of markets.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has implemented new rules prohibiting elected officials and candidates from trading in markets directly related to their own office or campaign, in response to regulatory compliance requirements and to curb insider trading allegations.
Odaily News - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 on August 28 that sports event contracts offered by Kalshi are not swaps, and that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preclude Nevada from applying gambling regulations to the relevant contracts. The court also vacated a prior injunction that allowed Kalshi to continue offering the contracts, and denied injunction requests from Crypto.com and Robinhood.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled in April of this year that Kalshi's related contracts were likely swaps and protected by federal law from state regulation. The two federal appellate courts are now split on the issue, and New Jersey has a September 3 deadline to petition the U.S. Supreme Court for review.Kalshi said it will seek further review and believes current U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules do not prohibit sports event contracts. Robinhood said it plans to appeal; the CFTC, meanwhile, noted that derivatives structured as swaps qualify as swaps, and except for onions and movie box office revenue, the law provides no related exemptions. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos and fined him $71,400. Kalshi determined that he manipulated markets related to whether he would attend the State of the Union address, profiting $17,800 from the scheme.In a disciplinary notice issued on August 28, Kalshi's compliance department stated that Santos made multiple large trades in the relevant markets between February 2 and 25. Since he could influence the market outcome, platform rules prohibited him from trading in that market; he subsequently made false or misleading statements regarding his attendance plans in an attempt to influence the prices of the "Yes" and "No" contracts.Kalshi determined that the statements were intended to manipulate prices and did cause price movements, resulting in violations of rules against market manipulation, trading on event outcomes, and fraudulent manipulation. He was also penalized for failing to cooperate with the investigation. This penalty marks the first time Kalshi has issued a lifetime ban against a former member of Congress. (Decrypt)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing and becoming law in 2026 is 13%, with related contract trading volume of approximately $11.5 million, a significant decline from the 82% priced by the market in February.The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15. The motion to invoke cloture to start the vote was filed by Majority Leader John Thune and typically requires 60 votes. Prediction market platform Kalshi puts the probability of a Senate vote occurring before October 1 at 91%, with related market trading volume exceeding $1.25 million.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusively regulating spot digital commodity markets, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) overseeing certain securities offerings and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements over conflicts of interest between officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin yields, and protections for decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are advancing cryptocurrency regulatory rulemaking, having solicited public comments on the definitions of swaps, security-based swaps, and emerging products, as well as on the boundaries of regulatory jurisdiction.Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo, former CFTC commissioners Brian Quintenz and Sharon Brown-Hruska, and former SEC commissioner Steven Wallman, among others, stated in a joint letter supported by Kalshi that similar risks should be subject to similar regulation, avoiding overlapping rules that increase compliance costs.Kalshi estimates that offshore perpetual contract trading volume will exceed $9 trillion in 2025, up from approximately $2.8 trillion two years ago. Chris Giancarlo said that if U.S. regulation is calibrated to actual risk rather than maximum burden, related liquidity could flow back to the United States.Last week, the SEC submitted proposed revisions to custody rules for investment advisers and investment companies to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) for review, aiming to clarify requirements for regulated investment institutions providing digital asset custody services. The SEC's "Reg Crypto" proposal has been published in the Federal Register, with public comments open until October 20. (Decrypt)
According to The Block, prediction market platform Kalshi announced a permanent ban on former U.S. Representative George Santos, marking the first time the platform has imposed a permanent ban on an individual user. Kalshi's compliance department determined that Santos engaged in prohibited trading in markets related to the State of the Union Address (SOTU)—by publicly announcing whether he would attend two weeks prior to the event, he caused significant price volatility in the associated contracts, constituting suspected market manipulation. Santos was fined over $71,000. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had already filed charges against him regarding the same incident. Santos settled with the CFTC by paying $35,000, without admitting or denying the allegations.
Odaily News The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stated that former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez has agreed to pay $172,000 to settle charges related to misusing advance information from presidential speeches to trade "presidential mention market" contracts. Such contracts settle based on whether specific words or phrases appear in presidential speeches.Perez profited over $107,500 between December 2025 and February 2026. The settlement includes disgorgement of $107,500 in profits, payment of a $65,000 civil monetary penalty, acceptance of a 3-year trading ban, and cessation of violations of the Commodity Exchange Act.The CFTC stated that Perez's penalty was significantly reduced under its new cooperation policy due to his cooperation with the investigation, and acknowledged the assistance provided by trading platform Kalshi. The CFTC noted that event contracts fall within its regulatory scope and that insider trading rules apply to相關 swap contracts. (Decrypt)
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 has risen to 57%, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75% to 4%; the probability of maintaining the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% stands at 43%.On August 21, the probability of a rate hike was 39.9%, which rose to 57% after the Jackson Hole speech on August 28, and market bets on a September rate cut have essentially disappeared.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged is 52%, while the probability of a hike is 48%, with related trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data shows that the probabilities of holding rates steady and hiking are 52% and 48%, respectively, with related trading volume exceeding $23.8 million.In his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Fed will adhere to its 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation target, and noted that his commitment is to discipline rather than specific decisions. Data shows that the 12-month PCE inflation rate is 3.7%, and the 6-month reading is 4.1%. (Bitcoin.com News)
A federal court ruled against prediction platform Kalshi, determining that states have the authority to regulate related derivatives based on anti-gambling regulations, providing a legal basis for state governments to restrict such businesses.
Connecticut filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, accusing it of offering unlicensed sports betting services in the state; this move further intensifies the cross-state legal and regulatory pressure facing the platform.
Odaily News: The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist letters on January 9 to prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding they stop offering sports-related prediction market products to Tennessee residents, void unsettled contracts, and return customer funds. The Council considers these products to constitute sports betting, requiring platforms to comply with state licensing, taxation, age restrictions, and consumer protection requirements.Kalshi stated that its event contracts are financial instruments regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and are not subject to state sports betting regulations. Users buy and sell contracts, with contract prices reflecting the market's implied probability; when an event occurs, winning contracts settle at $1, while others settle at zero.Traditional betting companies typically accept user wagers and manage risk by setting odds, whereas Kalshi facilitates trading between users, with the platform acting as a matchmaker and prices formed by buyers and sellers. This dispute centers on whether sports prediction markets should be subject to a unified federal regulatory framework or individual state betting licensing regimes. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Jovy Dedaj, lead counsel for Kalshi's litigation, Connecticut recently filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, demanding it immediately cease operations in the state; however, the state has not yet taken similar measures against other prediction markets still operating there. Dedaj argues that this action reflects inconsistencies in state-level enforcement, is not driven solely by consumer protection concerns, and highlights jurisdictional disputes surrounding prediction markets between state gambling regulation and the federal regulatory framework.
Odaily News: Recent Bitcoin volatility has triggered a wave of leveraged long position liquidations. On August 22, hourly liquidations reached $529 million, with long positions accounting for $478 million; on August 23, an additional $84 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within one hour.Prediction market Kalshi launched the first spot Bitcoin perpetual futures contract approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 3, with liquidations reaching $5.5 billion in the first two weeks. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the product offers U.S. institutions regulated onshore perpetual contract trading.Benjamin Schiffrin, Director of Securities Policy at Better Markets, pointed out that perpetual futures are high-risk crypto products for retail investors, and the CFTC did not impose additional investor protections when approving them. Analysis account Qmo noted that there are significant Bitcoin long liquidation pools in the $62,000 to $67,000 range; trader Money Bunny disclosed that short liquidations reached $2.7 billion to $3.5 billion within 24 hours. (Forbes Digital Assets)
Odaily News: In a podcast interview, Tom Lee stated that if he could hold only one company over the next 10 years, he would choose Robinhood Markets over prediction market platform Kalshi. He believes Robinhood possesses a competitive moat built on user experience (UI) and customer relationships, an advantage that is sometimes underestimated by investors. He noted that Robinhood has established genuine user connections, which will serve as a critical foundation for the company's long-term growth.When discussing the regulatory risks facing prediction markets, Tom Lee expressed that this sector involves local regulators and judicial rulings, and significant uncertainty remains ahead. Currently, multiple U.S. states, including New York and Nevada, have taken legal action against prediction market-related businesses, while the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals is also expected to issue a related ruling later this year.Regarding the regulatory framework for prediction markets, Tom Lee believes it might be more reasonable for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to obtain regulatory authority. He stated that adjustments to prediction market regulations are part of the broader restructuring of the financial services regulatory system, but the final outcome of court rulings remains difficult to predict.Tom Lee has long been bullish on the fintech and digital asset sectors, and he believes the financial services industry will undergo broader regulatory and business model transformations in the future.
Odaily News: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said this morning at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that trade.xyz and Hyperliquid are having a tangible impact on the U.S. market. trade.xyz, a leading market builder on the Hyperliquid chain, focuses on perpetual contracts for equities, commodities, and pre-IPO assets, and its trading volume already accounts for a significant share of Hyperliquid's activity. Terry Duffy has previously voiced concerns on multiple occasions regarding leverage and regulatory issues associated with such offshore platforms. Additionally, Terry Duffy clashed with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara over prediction market regulation. Duffy noted that certain prediction market contracts carry manipulation risks, particularly those listed via self-certification. He pointed out that contracts tied to the content of the President's State of the Union address and the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's departure from office may be susceptible to manipulation, adding that this is detrimental to the entire industry.
According to The Block, at a meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, CME CEO Terrence Duffy publicly addressed the risks of manipulation in prediction market contracts, stating that "there are indeed people manipulating these contracts, which is extremely harmful to the industry," and expressing concern over the potential manipulation risks associated with numerous self-certified contracts, as well as those related to Trump's State of the Union address and Maduro's removal from office. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig promptly interrupted and rebutted this, noting that all the aforementioned contracts operate overseas and are not issues for the U.S. market. Subsequently, Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara challenged CME by asking whether it had also faced manipulation issues, leading to a heated exchange between both parties. Currently, the dispute over regulatory jurisdiction for prediction markets continues to escalate, with the CFTC asserting "exclusive jurisdiction" and having already filed lawsuits against several states, while pledging to advance revisions to consumer protection rules; meanwhile, some members of Congress have introduced legislation aimed at banning the listing and trading of prediction contracts tied to sports or gambling.
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Cantor Fitzgerald has announced that it will open access to the prediction market platform Kalshi for institutional investors, providing event contract trading services to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds.According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker arranging block trades for institutional clients, enabling them to participate in "yes/no" contract trading based on real-world event outcomes offered by Kalshi. The trading instruments cover multiple areas, including weather forecasts, commodity price trends, and corporate performance.This partnership marks the further entry of traditional financial institutions into the prediction market space. Kalshi is an event trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can bet via contracts on whether specific events will occur, such as economic data releases, policy changes, weather conditions, and business events.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from investors, with proponents arguing that they can reflect collective expectations through market prices and provide risk hedging tools for businesses and investment institutions. However, regulators and some market participants have also continued to scrutinize the boundary between these markets and gambling. (WSJ)