News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced plans to launch perpetual futures contracts. Polymarket posted a video on X on Tuesday stating it will list perpetual futures products tied to crypto tokens, U.S. equities, and commodities; Kalshi has a similar plan. Perpetual futures are crypto-native derivatives with no fixed expiration date. It remains unclear whether Polymarket will offer these products in the U.S. market, as such products face relatively strict regulatory restrictions in the United States.
Odaily According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. Congress considers tightening regulations, the prediction market industry is intensifying its lobbying efforts in Washington to address criticism that it fuels the expansion of gambling and poses risks of potential insider trading.Leading platforms, represented by Kalshi, are joining forces with several crypto and sports betting companies involved in prediction markets to form lobbying teams. Their aim is to influence the legislative process and alleviate regulatory pressure. Industry insiders are concerned that regulatory actions targeting this multi-billion dollar industry may accelerate. (Bloomberg)
According to Cointelegraph, a legal dispute between prediction market platform Kalshi and the state of Nevada over regulatory jurisdiction concerning event contracts may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Kalshi argued before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit that its event contracts qualify as “swaps” subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than falling under state-level gambling regulation. Previously, Nevada had restricted Kalshi from offering such contracts on the grounds that it required a gambling license. Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, stated that the Supreme Court may rule on whether sports contracts listed on designated contract markets fall within the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority.
According to Cointelegraph, Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market platform Kalshi, stated that Kalshi will launch a “Parent Portal,” allowing parents to submit identification information to verify whether their children are impersonating them to circumvent the platform’s age restrictions. Kalshi will also add selfie verification to accounts, using facial recognition technology to determine whether the user matches the registered identity. The report notes that Kalshi is currently under scrutiny at both the state and federal levels in the U.S. over sports event contracts and wagers related to military operations. Meanwhile, Kalshi has argued in court that it falls exclusively under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and related state-level lawsuits remain ongoing.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
Odaily News Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out in its latest report that with the rapid rise of prediction markets, Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to become major beneficiaries in this sector, leveraging their massive retail user base and mature trading infrastructure. Although leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private companies, Robinhood and Coinbase have already begun entering this market by integrating event-driven trading within their applications.Cantor noted that prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on real-world events such as elections and economic data, with prices reflecting the crowd's probability judgments. This model is similar to stock and crypto trading platforms, primarily generating revenue through trading activity fees. Among them, Robinhood's prediction market product, launched after the US election, has grown rapidly and has become one of its fastest-growing revenue streams; Coinbase is gradually opening related features to users by integrating Kalshi's infrastructure.The report believes that prediction markets not only have retail trading potential but may also play a role in institutional hedging and macro forecasting in the future. However, regulation remains the biggest uncertainty, as its legal status is still debated between being classified as a derivative or gambling. (CoinDesk)
According to U.S. News, U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi for the District of Arizona ruled to temporarily bar the state from taking criminal or civil enforcement actions against prediction market platform Kalshi under state law. Additionally, Kalshi’s scheduled arraignment on April 13 has been halted. This ruling responds to a motion previously filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the temporary restraining order, Judge Liburdi stated that the State of Arizona may not enforce its state gambling laws against contracts listed on markets regulated by the CFTC.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed an application with a federal court on Tuesday evening seeking to block Arizona from enforcing its state gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi. The two agencies argue that Kalshi’s contracts—tied to real-world events such as sporting events and elections—are, in substance, financial derivatives (swaps) subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and the federal regulatory framework, rather than state-level gambling regulations. Arizona had previously brought criminal charges against Kalshi, with a trial scheduled for April 13. Courts across the country have issued conflicting rulings: the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit (New Jersey) has leaned toward supporting the federal regulatory position, while other district courts have remained open to the state’s arguments.