News linked to both this project and an event.
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Odaily forecasts that the prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the completion of a new $1 billion funding round, led by Coatue Management, boosting the company's valuation to $22 billion. Kalshi is a prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of events such as sports, politics, and weather. Following the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the platform has seen significant user growth, gradually entering the mainstream financial market's spotlight.Data shows that Kalshi has approximately 2 million monthly active users, with an annualized trading volume reaching $178 billion. This volume has more than tripled over the past six months, resulting in an annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion.This funding round is also the third round of financing completed by Kalshi in the past seven months, with valuations nearly doubling each time. This reflects the continued warming of the prediction market track among institutional capital, albeit accompanied by regulatory lawsuits and controversies surrounding "insider trading." (The New York Times)
According to Bloomberg, academic research and Bloomberg data analysis show that prediction market platform Kalshi has not yet demonstrated a statistically significant advantage over traditional economists in forecasting U.S. nonfarm payrolls. Over the past 33 months, the average forecast error of Kalshi traders and Bloomberg survey economists both exceeded 60,000 jobs—showing no statistically meaningful edge. For example, in April 2026, when the official U.S. nonfarm payroll report revealed an increase of 178,000 jobs, Kalshi’s final forecast error exceeded 90,000 jobs. Some Wall Street economists argue that prediction markets resemble “a new form of gambling,” offering limited analytical value for deeper labor-market structural data.
According to The Information, Polymarket—four years after exiting the U.S. market—is attempting to re-enter the domestic market by acquiring a U.S.-licensed derivatives and futures exchange, thereby rejoining the regulated framework, and has appointed Justin Hertzberg to lead its U.S. operations. However, recent developments indicate that Polymarket’s U.S. business progress has fallen short of expectations, with its market share significantly trailing that of its main competitor, Kalshi. Reportedly, within the company, Justin Hertzberg assumes more of a “figurehead CEO” role, primarily responsible for signing regulatory documents, while his capacity to manage and scale U.S. operations remains limited. Overall, Polymarket’s re-entry into the U.S. market continues to face dual challenges—both regulatory and operational.
According to Cointelegraph, a survey by the Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad (FD) found that although Polymarket was banned in February this year by the Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) for operating without a gambling license, Kalshi, crypto exchange Hyperliquid, and investment giant Interactive Brokers continue to offer prediction market services to Dutch users.
a regulatory review delay by the U.S. SEC has prevented the first batch of ETF products linked to prediction markets from launching as scheduled, postponing their listing timeline. Multiple institutions, including Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise Asset Management, submitted applications for over 20 prediction market-related ETFs in February this year. These event-driven products cover topics such as election outcomes, economic recessions, tech layoffs, and commodity prices.Under SEC rules, ETFs typically automatically become effective within 75 days of filing, unless the regulator requests further review. These products were originally expected to launch this week, but their listing has been delayed as the SEC has requested issuers to provide additional details on product mechanisms and disclosures. Relevant sources indicate this delay may be a short-term adjustment. These ETFs typically track "yes/no" event probabilities—such as election results or economic indicators—through derivative instruments and are linked to CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms like Kalshi. Each contract pays $1 if the event occurs, or zero otherwise.While prediction market trading has recently grown rapidly due to increased activity surrounding political events and geopolitical conflicts, it has also raised regulatory concerns regarding insider trading and market manipulation. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer noted that innovative financial products often require a longer regulatory cycle but may ultimately succeed, emphasizing that prediction market ETFs could become a new channel for retail investors to access event-based trading. (Reuters)
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on its proposed rules for prediction markets, reflecting intensifying regulatory discussion in this space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the proposed regulatory framework, viewing it as conducive to industry standardization and development. However, some stakeholders have called for stricter regulation and enforcement measures to mitigate potential risks. Market analysts note that this comment period highlights substantial disagreement regarding the compliance boundaries, product classification, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets. The finalization of these rules may thus become a pivotal factor shaping the industry’s future development.
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."
the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.
According to CoinDesk, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit on April 24 against Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, accusing these platforms of operating unlicensed gambling businesses under the guise of “event contracts.” The complaint cites marketing language used by the platforms themselves—for instance, Kalshi’s claim to be “the first legal sports betting platform in the U.S.,” and Polymarket’s statement that users can “bet on the outcomes of future events”—to argue that such contracts constitute wagering under Wisconsin law. The state government further noted that the platforms’ business model—charging fees per transaction—is functionally identical to casinos’ commission-based revenue structure. At the heart of this case lies a jurisdictional dispute: whether prediction market contracts fall under federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or are subject to individual states’ gambling laws. Similar lawsuits have already been filed by multiple states, and this conflict is expected to ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to predictive trading centered on US President Donald Trump's related policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to April 8th alone, markets related to the situation in Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving funds exceeding $100 million.Analysts point out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market. Topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly following his social media posts.Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, sparking external questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest category in prediction markets, trailing only sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains relatively lenient, driving the continuous expansion of this sector. (Fortune)
According to a disclosure by Kalshi, the prediction market platform Kalshi has fined and banned three congressional candidates from accessing the platform for five years for betting on their own election outcomes. The candidates involved include Mark Moran, Matt Klein, and Ezekiel Enriquez.Virginia State Senate candidate Mark Moran was fined $6,229 and required to return profits from related market trades; Minnesota House of Representatives candidate Matt Klein was fined $540; and Texas Republican primary candidate Ezekiel Enriquez was fined $784.Mark Moran posted on X (formerly Twitter) stating that his approximately $100 bet on Kalshi was intended to draw attention to expose potential manipulation and corruption issues on the platform. Matt Klein posted on X, explaining that he placed the bet out of curiosity and, upon learning it violated the rules, paid the fine and accepted the ban. Kalshi's legal counsel, Bobby DeNault, stated that the candidates' actions violated internal trading control rules and that penalties would be imposed regardless of the transaction amount.
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
According to an official announcement, Kalshi—a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—has integrated Pyth as the settlement data source for its newly launched Commodities Hub, covering markets including gold, silver, Brent crude oil, natural gas, copper, corn, soybeans, and wheat. Meanwhile, Pyth Pro will provide Kalshi’s market makers with direct access to market data. Kalshi stated that this move aims to support continuous trading and reliable settlement of commodity-related event contracts; Pyth Pro will subsequently expand to additional asset classes, including indices, equities, and foreign exchange.