News linked to both this project and an event.
the city of Baltimore and Mayor Brendan Scott have filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing the two companies of violating local gambling laws and regulations on deceptive business practices. The Mayor's office stated on Thursday that the two companies operate "illegal, unlicensed sports betting platforms" and mislead users about the legality and regulatory status of their products. The city of Baltimore argues that Kalshi and Polymarket describe event contracts as trading, but the transactions in question are essentially illegal gambling prohibited under state law. The complaint against Kalshi also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as partners on its prediction market platform, alleging that these companies promote sports contracts as products that can be legally purchased and traded in Maryland. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the companies involved maintain that prediction market event contracts fall under the category of "swaps" within their regulatory scope. Polymarket stated that prediction markets operated on CFTC-registered exchanges are governed by federal law and should not be subject to state and local regulations. (Cointelegraph)
The Baltimore City government has accused platforms such as Kalshi of violating gambling laws, involving partners such as Coinbase. The focus of the case is the conflict between local government enforcement authority and platform operational compliance.
The New York City Council has launched an investigation into the marketing practices of prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket to verify whether they are targeting young adults with misleading tactics.
According to The Block, the New York City Council has launched an investigation into four prediction market platforms—Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan—alleging they employed "false, deceptive, or abusive" marketing tactics targeting young users. Among them, Polymarket was accused of paying social media creators to film videos placing fake bets on counterfeit websites, an incident first disclosed by The Wall Street Journal in June this year. Additionally, prediction market platforms face insider trading allegations; New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order in April prohibiting state government employees from using confidential government information to place bets on prediction markets.
Odaily News: Flight data company FlightAware has withdrawn its lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi. The lawsuit was filed only one day prior, with FlightAware alleging that Kalshi used its flight data and trademarks without authorization to support bets related to flight cancellations. This withdrawal does not affect the possibility of FlightAware refiling the lawsuit. The case comes amid growing scrutiny on social media over Kalshi's aviation-related contracts, with questions raised about potential incentives for malicious interference with flights, alongside relatively low retail participation. Neither company has publicly commented on the case. The lawsuit had raised questions about whether prediction markets can use third-party data and trademarks without a commercial agreement, while Kalshi continues to face other regulatory and legal challenges in multiple states. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: Connecticut Federal District Court Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that its sports event contracts do not constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC therefore does not hold exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling noted that sports event contracts account for 80% to 90% of Kalshi's listed contracts and revenue, and the CFTC has never reviewed any of these contracts under relevant special rules. Oliver held that event outcomes fall under the category of event results, not separate events. Coinbase Financial Markets suffered a similar defeat on the same grounds, having offered Kalshi contracts through its platform since January as a futures commission merchant rather than a designated contract market, and Connecticut had not previously issued a cease-and-desist order against it. Kalshi was valued at approximately $11 billion at the time of its February hearing, with around 24,000 users in the state. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it has required prediction market operator Kalshi to continue operating in New York. Previously, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against the company in late July, seeking to shut down the platform. The CFTC stated that after Kalshi sought assistance, the regulator invoked its "emergency powers" to require the company to continue operations. This action has intensified the rift between federal commodity regulators and state regulators over prediction markets. States argue that at least sports-related prediction markets constitute gambling platforms and violate state regulations; CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated that Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be subject to a regulatory framework composed of state gambling laws. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News As prediction markets gradually expand into the realms of politics and government decision-making, insider trading risks are becoming a regulatory focus. U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has stated that it has identified multiple suspected cases of insider trading and has submitted the relevant leads to federal regulators.Kalshi spokesperson Laura Frank stated that the company prohibits market manipulation and insider trading and has established a trading surveillance system similar to those used in securities markets. Earlier this year, Kalshi's monitoring system flagged suspicious trading activity by former Congressman George Santos in markets related to the U.S. President's State of the Union address. The company subsequently submitted its investigative findings to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Additionally, federal agencies are investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade on Kalshi-related markets.Meanwhile, the Trump family is accelerating its push into the prediction market space. Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, which will allow users to trade prediction contracts tied to major events. The company is also launching Truth API, providing Wall Street with high-speed data access to Truth Social content.Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the former president, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, while his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has invested in rival Polymarket and joined its advisory board. This means the Trump family is simultaneously linked to the two leading prediction market platforms, while Trump Media Group is also building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family has traded using inside government information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing growing external scrutiny.As of now, Donald Trump Jr.'s team and Trump Media & Technology Group have not immediately responded to requests for comment. (Fortune)
Odaily News: Polymarket will replace single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices in short-term cryptocurrency markets for settling related contracts. This follows research and trader complaints indicating widespread manipulation in its settlement process. A study on 5-minute Bitcoin contracts found that some large Binance trades occurred in the final seconds before settlement and appeared to drive price movements; within potentially manipulated settlement windows, the majority of losses were borne by retail traders. The new system will use Chainlink Data Streams and short-duration TWAP windows. This mechanism is similar to the safeguards used by competing platform Kalshi, which relies on regulated price indices and moving averages to increase the difficulty and cost of short-term price distortion.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the launch of an AI-powered tool called Blanket, designed to help small businesses hedge operational risks such as weather, energy prices, tariffs, and elections using event contracts.Blanket was developed by independent fintech entrepreneur Lauris Zminsky and operates on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated prediction market, though it is not an internal Kalshi product. The tool does not directly execute trades or handle funds; instead, it uses AI to analyze risks faced by businesses and recommends Kalshi event contracts that can be used for hedging.Kalshi stated that small businesses are becoming a key growth area, with an increasing number of companies using event contracts to manage uncertainty from abnormal weather, sports events, transportation costs, and tariff fluctuations. However, Blanket has also sparked debate over the positioning of prediction markets. Supporters argue that prediction markets are democratizing risk management tools previously available only to large financial institutions, while critics worry that they may further promote the "gamification" and speculative nature of financial products.Kalshi has already obtained regulatory approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and emphasized that its platform differs from casinos, offering stronger user protection mechanisms and greater transparency. (Fortune)
Odaily News A U.S. District Court Judge for the Eastern District of Michigan, Shalina Kumar, on Thursday denied Coinbase's preliminary injunction request to block the state government from enforcing regulations on sports event contracts. The ruling stated that Coinbase failed to demonstrate that its claim of federal law preempting Michigan's jurisdiction was likely to succeed on the merits of the case. Coinbase sued Michigan in December 2025, arguing that prediction markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), rather than state-level regulators. Coinbase sought to provide its platform customers, including those in Michigan, with access to event contracts issued by Kalshi, and stated in its complaint that Michigan law constitutes "conflict preemption" because it obstructs Congress's establishment of a unified federal regulatory framework.
: U.S. Federal District Judge Robert J. Shelby ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not prevent Utah from applying its anti-gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, granting Utah's motion for summary judgment and denying Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction. Shelby stated that the jurisdictional provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act are subject to multiple reasonable interpretations, and in such cases, courts generally do not support federal law preemption. He also rejected Kalshi's argument that amendments under the Dodd-Frank Act established federal preemption for derivatives trading. Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick said the company disagrees with the ruling and will appeal to the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals. Currently, Utah users can still use sports event contracts, and the state has not yet initiated enforcement action. The New York Attorney General has already cited the ruling as supplementary grounds in opposing the CFTC's motion for a preliminary injunction against New York state. Earlier, New York sued Kalshi last week, alleging that it operates as an unlicensed gambling operator.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced a partnership with compliance technology company Comply to provide enterprise clients with prediction market trading monitoring and compliance management tools. Comply will integrate prediction market trading data from Kalshi into its regulatory software system. Enterprises using Comply's services will be able to review employees' trading activities in event contracts to ensure compliance with company trading policies and prevent trading based on material non-public information (MNPI). This compliance capability will also extend to perpetual futures contracts launched by Kalshi in the future. (CNBC)
Odaily News – New York Judge Jed S. Rakoff has denied the emergency temporary restraining order request filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which sought to block New York State from continuing its enforcement case against prediction market operator Kalshi. The ruling dismissed the request without prejudice, and the CFTC may resubmit its motion to Judge Victor Marrero on August 7. Rakoff held that the CFTC failed to demonstrate a substantial likelihood of success on the merits, nor did it establish irreparable harm. New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Kalshi last Friday, alleging that the company operates an illegal and unlicensed gambling business by offering contracts tied to sports, elections, and other events. The New York State Gaming Commission had already issued a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi in October 2025. The case centers on whether federal commodities law preempts state-level gambling enforcement over event contracts, with state regulators arguing that the relevant contracts constitute wagering, while the CFTC and Kalshi maintain that they are derivatives subject to the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.
Odaily News: Former U.S. Representative George Santos has reached a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the July 31 order, Santos must disgorge $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 civil monetary penalty, and is prohibited from trading on any CFTC-regulated entity for three years. The CFTC found that Santos made misleading public statements and material omissions while trading event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi related to whether he would attend President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Santos neither admitted nor denied the findings or conclusions in the order. Trading records show that Santos opened an account on February 11 and traded only that contract, first purchasing Yes contracts and profiting $3,448.43, then continuing to publicly state he would attend after flights and trains were canceled, while purchasing No contracts. That position ultimately earned $14,390.57. Kalshi stated that it had detected the related activity, frozen the account, and provided evidence to the CFTC.
New York Supreme Court Justice Melissa A. Crane ruled that, since the relevant case has been transferred to federal court, the preliminary injunction motion previously filed by New York State against Kalshi is now moot and therefore dismissed the motion. The court also noted that if the case is remanded to state court in the future, the relevant motion may be resubmitted.
Odaily News – Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour pushed back on Monday in a CNBC interview against New York State's lawsuit targeting the company, arguing that the case is not just about sports-related contracts, but challenges the entire prediction market business model.Mansour stated that if the logic of New York's lawsuit were upheld, "it could be copy-pasted to sue Nasdaq." He said Kalshi operates more like Nasdaq: the platform matches buyers and sellers and charges approximately 1% in transaction fees, rather than acting as a bookmaker directly wagering against users like traditional sports betting company DraftKings.New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi last week, accusing its event contracts of constituting illegal gambling and seeking at least $36 billion in damages, with the exact amount still pending full accounting.Mansour also compared Kalshi's regulatory and legal challenges to the early regulatory resistance faced by Uber and Airbnb, suggesting that prediction markets, as a new type of platform economy, are prone to misunderstanding or overregulation under existing legal frameworks.
Odaily News: Former US Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC stated that Santos engaged in manipulative trading behavior while trading a prediction contract on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February 2026, profiting over $17,500 from the trades.According to the CFTC's Friday announcement, Santos is required to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, but neither admitted nor denied the regulator's findings.The CFTC stated that in the two weeks leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos repeatedly made public comments about whether he would attend the event, causing significant fluctuations in the price of the event contract. For example, while holding a "Yes" position indicating he would attend, he posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos closed his position for a profit.The CFTC also alleged that Santos subsequently continued to post updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., including flights and train rides, and profited by trading back and forth based on market reactions to his public statements. The CFTC stated that Santos's conduct was intentional, or at least reckless. He traded in an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions of information, thereby profiting from his trading positions.Santos's attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated in Friday's announcement that the State of the Union contract was Santos's first foray into prediction market betting.
Odaily News: New York State has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business in the state. New York Attorney General Letitia James is asking the court to order Kalshi to cease operations in New York State and require the company to pay fines and compensation to users. New York State has also filed a motion for a temporary restraining order, seeking to suspend Kalshi's event contract trading in the state, and requesting the court to order Kalshi to fully refund users' funds, surrender all proceeds obtained through these products, pay penalties equal to three times its profits, and a fine of $100,000 per product. According to court documents, the requested compensatory damages could amount to at least $36 billion, with the exact figure to be determined after a full accounting.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.