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Project Overview
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that supports cryptocurrency deposits.where investors can trade event contracts tied to real-world events. Trading contracts based on the outcome of specific events allows users to tap into a wider range of topics compared to traditional stock and derivatives. Whether you are an expert in a particular field or have a keen interest in certain subjects (news, finance, pop culture, etc.), Kalshi provides an opportunity to earn profits based on accurate predictions. Kalshi also provides extensive resources and tools (tutorials, market data, etc.) to help traders understand prediction markets and improve their trading strategies.
Prediction market pricing shows expectations for Fed rate cuts before 2027 have significantly cooled
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
CFTC Sues Wisconsin to Defend Regulatory Authority Over Prediction Markets
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
Robin Hanson, “one of the founding theorists of prediction markets,” opposes Kalshi and Polymarket’s blanket bans on insider trading.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Kalshi Executive: Insider Trading Is Not Unique to Prediction Markets; It Requires Refined Solutions
Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."
CFTC sues New York state to prevent it from applying gambling laws to prediction market applications
the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.
U.S. soldier who illegally profited $400,000 on Polymarket had previously been denied an account by Kalshi
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
Hyperliquid Eyes Prediction Market, Plans to Explore Zero Opening Fee Model to Challenge Polymarket
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
Kalshi CEO: The Potential Market Size for Institutional Risk Transfer Block Trades Could Reach $10-15 Trillion
In response to the first customized commodity trade completed on the Kalshi platform, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X platform, "Historically, the bottleneck for institutional risk transfer has been liquidity. The bottleneck for liquidity is the lack of price benchmarks for each type of relevant risk (e.g., WTI for oil). Kalshi has built a large community of top global superforecasters who rank among the world's best at pricing risk. This allows us to create price benchmarks for a broader range of issues faced by people and institutions. Institutions have already begun adopting these price benchmarks by integrating them into traditional asset pricing models. Although work remains, we are seeing rapid expansion in data use cases and integration.""The next phase is utilizing these price benchmarks to transfer risk via block trades and requests for quote (RFQ). This phase is still in its early stages but is beginning to take shape. The market size for risk transfer of non-traditional financial instruments is difficult to estimate. The closest references are the reinsurance market and the derivatives desks of banks: reinsurance is approximately $700 billion; insurance-linked securities and parametric insurance (such as catastrophe bonds) are around $120-135 billion; bank derivatives (structured products, dealer-to-dealer, exotics, etc.) are about $200-400 billion. The current market is roughly $1-1.5 trillion, but most of it is illiquid and traded over-the-counter (OTC, i.e., with a single counterparty). Whenever a major OTC market moves to exchange trading, the market grows significantly due to the establishment of price benchmarks, narrowing bid-ask spreads, the end of Wall Street elite's monopoly on access, and the entry of new participants. For example, interest rate swaps grew 10-15 times, stock options grew 20-30 times, and energy derivatives grew 5-8 times. The institutional use case for prediction markets could form a $10-15 trillion market, with even greater upside potential, depending on the extent to which it democratizes products currently exclusive to Wall Street."
Kalshi completes first customized block trade, with Jump providing liquidity
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on X, citing Bloomberg, that Kalshi has completed its first customized block trade, with Jump Trading providing liquidity support for the transaction. The trade was brokered by Greenlight Commodities this month and executed on behalf of an environmental hedge fund based in Houston, which sought exposure to a contract tracking "whether a specific price will be realized in California's May carbon emissions allowance auction."Mansour commented on this, stating that the institutional application of prediction markets could be a $10-15 trillion market, with growth potential potentially even larger, depending on how extensively they popularize products currently exclusive to Wall Street.
CFTC sues New York state to prevent it from applying gambling laws to prediction market applications
the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.
Brazil Bans 27 Prediction Market Platforms, Including Kalshi and Polymarket, as Illegal
According to Cointelegraph, Brazilian authorities have announced the blocking of 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood’s prediction feature, and Fanatics Markets. The ban is led by the Ministry of Finance and enforced by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), based on Resolution No. 5,298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on April 25, and will officially take effect in early May. The new regulation explicitly prohibits prediction contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events, deeming them closer in nature to gambling than financial investment; only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices—are permitted. Dario Durigan, Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, stated that prediction markets could exacerbate debt burdens for households and small- and medium-sized enterprises, posing financial risks. Similar restrictions have already been adopted by several countries, including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Wisconsin Sues Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Others Alleging Illegal Sports Betting
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.
Related news
Hyperliquid Eyes Prediction Market, Plans to Explore Zero Opening Fee Model to Challenge Polymarket
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
Prediction market pricing shows expectations for Fed rate cuts before 2027 have significantly cooled
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
CFTC Sues Wisconsin to Defend Regulatory Authority Over Prediction Markets
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
Kalshi CEO: The Potential Market Size for Institutional Risk Transfer Block Trades Could Reach $10-15 Trillion
In response to the first customized commodity trade completed on the Kalshi platform, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X platform, "Historically, the bottleneck for institutional risk transfer has been liquidity. The bottleneck for liquidity is the lack of price benchmarks for each type of relevant risk (e.g., WTI for oil). Kalshi has built a large community of top global superforecasters who rank among the world's best at pricing risk. This allows us to create price benchmarks for a broader range of issues faced by people and institutions. Institutions have already begun adopting these price benchmarks by integrating them into traditional asset pricing models. Although work remains, we are seeing rapid expansion in data use cases and integration.""The next phase is utilizing these price benchmarks to transfer risk via block trades and requests for quote (RFQ). This phase is still in its early stages but is beginning to take shape. The market size for risk transfer of non-traditional financial instruments is difficult to estimate. The closest references are the reinsurance market and the derivatives desks of banks: reinsurance is approximately $700 billion; insurance-linked securities and parametric insurance (such as catastrophe bonds) are around $120-135 billion; bank derivatives (structured products, dealer-to-dealer, exotics, etc.) are about $200-400 billion. The current market is roughly $1-1.5 trillion, but most of it is illiquid and traded over-the-counter (OTC, i.e., with a single counterparty). Whenever a major OTC market moves to exchange trading, the market grows significantly due to the establishment of price benchmarks, narrowing bid-ask spreads, the end of Wall Street elite's monopoly on access, and the entry of new participants. For example, interest rate swaps grew 10-15 times, stock options grew 20-30 times, and energy derivatives grew 5-8 times. The institutional use case for prediction markets could form a $10-15 trillion market, with even greater upside potential, depending on the extent to which it democratizes products currently exclusive to Wall Street."
Polymarket Q1 Visits Reach 122 Million, Ranking First Among Crypto Application Websites
According to Similarweb data, in Q1 2026, Polymarket ranked first in crypto application website traffic with 122 million visits, surpassing Robinhood (118 million visits).In addition, Coinbase ranked third (78.8 million visits), Kalshi ranked sixth (34.8 million visits), Kraken ranked eighth (22 million visits), Hyperliquid ranked ninth (12.8 million visits), Pump.fun ranked eleventh (8.2 million visits), and Uniswap ranked twelfth (5 million visits).
Kalshi completes first customized block trade, with Jump providing liquidity
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on X, citing Bloomberg, that Kalshi has completed its first customized block trade, with Jump Trading providing liquidity support for the transaction. The trade was brokered by Greenlight Commodities this month and executed on behalf of an environmental hedge fund based in Houston, which sought exposure to a contract tracking "whether a specific price will be realized in California's May carbon emissions allowance auction."Mansour commented on this, stating that the institutional application of prediction markets could be a $10-15 trillion market, with growth potential potentially even larger, depending on how extensively they popularize products currently exclusive to Wall Street.