News Heat Trend
Project Overview
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that supports cryptocurrency deposits.where investors can trade event contracts tied to real-world events. Trading contracts based on the outcome of specific events allows users to tap into a wider range of topics compared to traditional stock and derivatives. Whether you are an expert in a particular field or have a keen interest in certain subjects (news, finance, pop culture, etc.), Kalshi provides an opportunity to earn profits based on accurate predictions. Kalshi also provides extensive resources and tools (tutorials, market data, etc.) to help traders understand prediction markets and improve their trading strategies.
Kalshi seeks to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, with 30-day trading volume reaching $14.1 billion
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Kalshi is seeking to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, doubling its $22 billion valuation from six months ago. The platform was approved as a designated contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021.As of September 4, Kalshi's trading volume over the past 30 days reached $14.1 billion, while Polymarket's stood at $3.1 billion, with Kalshi accounting for approximately 82% of their combined trading volume. More than 80% of Kalshi's trading volume comes from sports events. (Bitcoin.com News)
Senator Elizabeth Warren: Supports crypto legislation, but the current Clarity Act is not enough
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.
Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF, Allocating 15% of Positions to Kalshi and Polymarket Private Assets
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
Crypto industry stakeholders submit differentiated rule proposals to SEC on novel ETF regulation
Odaily News Crypto enterprises, asset managers, market makers, and consumer advocacy groups have submitted comments to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in response to its request for input on the regulatory framework for "novel ETFs," covering exchange-traded products such as crypto assets, private assets, event contracts, and leveraged strategies.Crypto industry organization Crypto Council for Innovation (CCI) recommended extending certain regulatory accommodations applicable to ETFs to non-ETF exchange-traded products. Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (A16z) stated that the SEC should assess products based on their underlying assets and risk profiles, rather than treating all novel ETFs as a single category.Grayscale opposed adding new portfolio restrictions for mature digital asset products, while Chainalysis suggested leveraging public blockchains to enable real-time monitoring and verifiable disclosures. Kalshi expressed support for including event contracts in registered funds, whereas consumer advocacy group Public Citizen opposed offering event contract ETFs to retail investors. The SEC will evaluate whether to adopt a unified regulatory framework or craft separate rules based on product structure and risk. (Decrypt)
Fomo enters top five in U.S. finance apps, surpassing Cash App and Kalshi
Odaily News: Fomo, a social crypto trading app built for Robinhood Chain and other networks, entered the top five finance apps in the U.S. on August 21, briefly climbing to No. 3 and surpassing Cash App and prediction market Kalshi. It currently ranks in the top 15.Founded by Paul Erlanger and Se Yong Park, Fomo launched its public beta in May 2025. In November 2025, it completed a $17 million Series A round led by Benchmark, with participation from 140 angel investors; this was followed by a $75 million Series B round, bringing total disclosed equity funding to approximately $94 million.Fomo supports Solana, Base, BNB Chain, Monad, and Robinhood Chain, allowing users to view real-time trades of people they follow, track leaderboards, and copy trading signals, with instant deposits funded via Apple Pay. Its cumulative installs on Google Play have surpassed 1 million, with over 600,000 users and more than $4 billion in trading volume. (Bitcoin.com News)
Kalshi disclosed that it has raised approximately $1.12 billion through equity financing, with a total offering size of $1.5 billion.
According to Sina Finance, prediction platform Kalshi stated in filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has raised approximately $1.12 billion through equity financing, with a total offering size of $1.5 billion.
Senator Elizabeth Warren: Supports crypto legislation, but the current Clarity Act is not enough
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.
Bernstein: Crypto CLARITY Act Passage Odds Rise Above 30%, Shorts Under Pressure
According to Chaoxiang research, Bernstein's September 14, 2026 report indicates that the Kalshi prediction market has rebounded to a greater than 30% probability for the passage of the CLARITY Act. The CLARITY Act, officially the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, centers on establishing a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, delineating regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, and clarifying exchange compliance requirements and stablecoin yield rules. The latest Senate Republican draft has made substantive concessions on Trump-related ethics provisions and incorporates a "new circuit breaker" clause to address concerns over deposit outflows from community banks. A procedural vote is scheduled for Tuesday, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Bernstein: Progress on the CLEAR Act exceeds market expectations, with any positive surprises remaining unpriced.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts indicated that Senate Republicans' progress on the Clarity Act may surpass market consensus expectations. The Republican proposal has been finalized, incorporating 126 substantive amendments put forward by Democrats. President Trump has also endorsed most measures within the bipartisan ethics framework, including granting enforcement authority to state attorneys general. Bernstein pointed out that the crypto market currently holds a pessimistic view toward Tuesday’s procedural vote, with "any upside surprises not yet priced in." The probability of the bill's passage on prediction market platform Kalshi has climbed back above 30%. Analysts cautioned that a failure to pass the legislation, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, could trigger a "significant pullback" in markets. However, even if the bill fails, it will accelerate SEC and CFTC crypto regulatory rulemaking rather than derail broader regulatory efforts.
Tax Classification Still Undetermined: Kalshi Bitcoin Perpetual Contracts Recognized by CFTC as Futures, CME Says They Are Swaps
Odaily News: Bitcoin News posted on X platform that after the CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts as futures products, uncertainty remains over how traders should report gains to the IRS. If the product is recognized as a regulated futures contract under Section 1256 of the U.S. tax code, the related gains are typically treated as 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of the holding period. CME believes that Kalshi's perpetual contracts are actually swaps, and swaps are explicitly outside the scope of Section 1256. The CFTC's classification supports the view that they are futures products, but it is not binding on the IRS. Until the IRS, U.S. Congress, or courts directly address Bitcoin perpetual contracts, their tax treatment remains undetermined.
Kalshi plans to apply to launch approximately 60 US stock and ETF perpetual contracts.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platform Kalshi plans to seek U.S. regulatory approval to launch perpetual contracts on approximately 60 stocks and ETFs, including Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia, with round-the-clock trading enabled. If approved, they would become the first regulated single-stock perpetual contracts in the U.S.
EU regulators warn prediction markets such as Polymarket lack regulatory approval.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released a report stating that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi lack the formal authorization required to sell contracts to users in the EU. Regulators have also questioned the effectiveness of these platforms in enforcing geo-restrictions and anti-VPN measures.
Bernstein: Progress on the CLEAR Act exceeds market expectations, with any positive surprises remaining unpriced.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts indicated that Senate Republicans' progress on the Clarity Act may surpass market consensus expectations. The Republican proposal has been finalized, incorporating 126 substantive amendments put forward by Democrats. President Trump has also endorsed most measures within the bipartisan ethics framework, including granting enforcement authority to state attorneys general. Bernstein pointed out that the crypto market currently holds a pessimistic view toward Tuesday’s procedural vote, with "any upside surprises not yet priced in." The probability of the bill's passage on prediction market platform Kalshi has climbed back above 30%. Analysts cautioned that a failure to pass the legislation, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, could trigger a "significant pullback" in markets. However, even if the bill fails, it will accelerate SEC and CFTC crypto regulatory rulemaking rather than derail broader regulatory efforts.
Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF, Allocating 15% of Positions to Kalshi and Polymarket Private Assets
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
Kalshi Launches CFTC-Approved Spot Bitcoin Perpetual Futures, Trading Volume Reaches $5.5 Billion in First Two Weeks
Odaily News: Recent Bitcoin volatility has triggered a wave of leveraged long position liquidations. On August 22, hourly liquidations reached $529 million, with long positions accounting for $478 million; on August 23, an additional $84 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within one hour.Prediction market Kalshi launched the first spot Bitcoin perpetual futures contract approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 3, with liquidations reaching $5.5 billion in the first two weeks. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the product offers U.S. institutions regulated onshore perpetual contract trading.Benjamin Schiffrin, Director of Securities Policy at Better Markets, pointed out that perpetual futures are high-risk crypto products for retail investors, and the CFTC did not impose additional investor protections when approving them. Analysis account Qmo noted that there are significant Bitcoin long liquidation pools in the $62,000 to $67,000 range; trader Money Bunny disclosed that short liquidations reached $2.7 billion to $3.5 billion within 24 hours. (Forbes Digital Assets)
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin's Performance Relative to Gold Is Stabilizing
Odaily News, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that while the recent U.S. employment report appears concerning on the surface, deeper economic trends are shifting. Productivity gains, the expanding application of AI, and potential deflationary pressures could become the main market themes moving forward.Wood noted that the U.S. federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is currently around 5.6%, approaching levels seen during the Reagan era in the 1980s. She believes that if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate as ARK anticipates, that ratio could fall to about 5% by year-end, although most economic forecasters view this target as difficult to achieve.On inflation, Wood believes the market is underestimating deflationary risks. She noted that recent inflation data has consistently come in below expectations, with the June CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month, PPI down 0.3% month-over-month, and core PCE rising just 0.1% month-over-month. She argues that companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools may face greater pricing pressure and competitive risks in the future.Wood is also bullish on the U.S. dollar. ARK's data model based on Kalshi prediction markets suggests the dollar index could rise to 102.6 this year. She pushed back against the view that "overseas capital is selling off U.S. assets," pointing out that Japan's recent currency market intervention primarily involved selling euros and buying yen, rather than selling dollars.In energy markets, Wood believes a global crude oil supply glut is taking shape. She noted that the UAE's production has risen to historic highs after leaving OPEC, and further downside in oil prices could act as a deflationary driver for the global economy.Regarding the AI investment boom, Wood said concerns about an AI bubble are overblown, and the current growth in capital expenditure likely represents the early stage of a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculative cycle.In the crypto asset space, Wood said Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is stabilizing, and believes that as the "agentic commerce" economy develops, Bitcoin and stablecoins could become the biggest beneficiaries.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Within the Year Decreases, Potentially Undermining Crypto Market Prospects
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara Clash Verbally at CFTC Roundtable
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
Kalshi develops AI agent "Harrison" to stress-test prediction market contracts and betting logic
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
Senator Elizabeth Warren: Supports crypto legislation, but the current Clarity Act is not enough
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.
Bernstein: Progress on the CLEAR Act exceeds market expectations, with any positive surprises remaining unpriced.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts indicated that Senate Republicans' progress on the Clarity Act may surpass market consensus expectations. The Republican proposal has been finalized, incorporating 126 substantive amendments put forward by Democrats. President Trump has also endorsed most measures within the bipartisan ethics framework, including granting enforcement authority to state attorneys general. Bernstein pointed out that the crypto market currently holds a pessimistic view toward Tuesday’s procedural vote, with "any upside surprises not yet priced in." The probability of the bill's passage on prediction market platform Kalshi has climbed back above 30%. Analysts cautioned that a failure to pass the legislation, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, could trigger a "significant pullback" in markets. However, even if the bill fails, it will accelerate SEC and CFTC crypto regulatory rulemaking rather than derail broader regulatory efforts.
Tax Classification Still Undetermined: Kalshi Bitcoin Perpetual Contracts Recognized by CFTC as Futures, CME Says They Are Swaps
Odaily News: Bitcoin News posted on X platform that after the CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts as futures products, uncertainty remains over how traders should report gains to the IRS. If the product is recognized as a regulated futures contract under Section 1256 of the U.S. tax code, the related gains are typically treated as 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of the holding period. CME believes that Kalshi's perpetual contracts are actually swaps, and swaps are explicitly outside the scope of Section 1256. The CFTC's classification supports the view that they are futures products, but it is not binding on the IRS. Until the IRS, U.S. Congress, or courts directly address Bitcoin perpetual contracts, their tax treatment remains undetermined.
Kalshi plans to apply to launch approximately 60 US stock and ETF perpetual contracts.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platform Kalshi plans to seek U.S. regulatory approval to launch perpetual contracts on approximately 60 stocks and ETFs, including Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia, with round-the-clock trading enabled. If approved, they would become the first regulated single-stock perpetual contracts in the U.S.
EU regulators warn prediction markets such as Polymarket lack regulatory approval.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released a report stating that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi lack the formal authorization required to sell contracts to users in the EU. Regulators have also questioned the effectiveness of these platforms in enforcing geo-restrictions and anti-VPN measures.
Kalshi Approved to Launch Gold and Silver Perpetual Contracts, Seeks to Expand into US Stocks, Copper, and Forex
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch gold and silver perpetual contracts on September 10. This marks the first non-crypto perpetual contract product approved by the CFTC. Kalshi was first approved to offer cryptocurrency perpetual contracts in late May of this year, and related products have since reached $44 billion in notional trading volume. Kalshi stated that gold and silver event contracts have exceeded $400 million in trading volume over the past 7 months, prompting the company to further expand its precious metals perpetual contract business. Additionally, Kalshi is also seeking to launch perpetual contracts related to US stocks, copper, and forex. (CNBC)
Related news
Kalshi seeks to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, with 30-day trading volume reaching $14.1 billion
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Kalshi is seeking to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, doubling its $22 billion valuation from six months ago. The platform was approved as a designated contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021.As of September 4, Kalshi's trading volume over the past 30 days reached $14.1 billion, while Polymarket's stood at $3.1 billion, with Kalshi accounting for approximately 82% of their combined trading volume. More than 80% of Kalshi's trading volume comes from sports events. (Bitcoin.com News)
Senator Elizabeth Warren: Supports crypto legislation, but the current Clarity Act is not enough
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.
Bernstein: Crypto CLARITY Act Passage Odds Rise Above 30%, Shorts Under Pressure
According to Chaoxiang research, Bernstein's September 14, 2026 report indicates that the Kalshi prediction market has rebounded to a greater than 30% probability for the passage of the CLARITY Act. The CLARITY Act, officially the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, centers on establishing a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, delineating regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, and clarifying exchange compliance requirements and stablecoin yield rules. The latest Senate Republican draft has made substantive concessions on Trump-related ethics provisions and incorporates a "new circuit breaker" clause to address concerns over deposit outflows from community banks. A procedural vote is scheduled for Tuesday, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Bernstein: Progress on the CLEAR Act exceeds market expectations, with any positive surprises remaining unpriced.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts indicated that Senate Republicans' progress on the Clarity Act may surpass market consensus expectations. The Republican proposal has been finalized, incorporating 126 substantive amendments put forward by Democrats. President Trump has also endorsed most measures within the bipartisan ethics framework, including granting enforcement authority to state attorneys general. Bernstein pointed out that the crypto market currently holds a pessimistic view toward Tuesday’s procedural vote, with "any upside surprises not yet priced in." The probability of the bill's passage on prediction market platform Kalshi has climbed back above 30%. Analysts cautioned that a failure to pass the legislation, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, could trigger a "significant pullback" in markets. However, even if the bill fails, it will accelerate SEC and CFTC crypto regulatory rulemaking rather than derail broader regulatory efforts.
Kalshi Co-Founder: Open Competition Drives Price Discovery, the Most Powerful Financial Markets Are Built on the Same Competitive Principles
Tarek Mansour, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, posted on X stating that ahead of today's US Open final, Kalshi ran full-page ads in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Washington Post.He used tennis legend Pete Sampras's career to illustrate his views on market competition. Mansour stated that open competition exposes weaknesses, rewards effective strategies, and forces participants to continuously improve—and the same applies to financial markets. In trading markets, different participants express their judgments about asset value through capital, more accurate information is rewarded, and ultimately a multitude of differing views converge into a single market price, thereby driving price discovery. He believes that a truly open market should allow anyone to participate, follow the same rules, and maintain transparency in prices and trading activity.
Tax Classification Still Undetermined: Kalshi Bitcoin Perpetual Contracts Recognized by CFTC as Futures, CME Says They Are Swaps
Odaily News: Bitcoin News posted on X platform that after the CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts as futures products, uncertainty remains over how traders should report gains to the IRS. If the product is recognized as a regulated futures contract under Section 1256 of the U.S. tax code, the related gains are typically treated as 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of the holding period. CME believes that Kalshi's perpetual contracts are actually swaps, and swaps are explicitly outside the scope of Section 1256. The CFTC's classification supports the view that they are futures products, but it is not binding on the IRS. Until the IRS, U.S. Congress, or courts directly address Bitcoin perpetual contracts, their tax treatment remains undetermined.