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Project Overview
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that supports cryptocurrency deposits.where investors can trade event contracts tied to real-world events. Trading contracts based on the outcome of specific events allows users to tap into a wider range of topics compared to traditional stock and derivatives. Whether you are an expert in a particular field or have a keen interest in certain subjects (news, finance, pop culture, etc.), Kalshi provides an opportunity to earn profits based on accurate predictions. Kalshi also provides extensive resources and tools (tutorials, market data, etc.) to help traders understand prediction markets and improve their trading strategies.
Kalshi Crypto Business Lead: The "Top-Tier VC" Narrative Around SBF Is Inaccurate; The Real Mastermind Is "AI Stock God" Leopold
John Wang, Head of Crypto Business at prediction market platform Kalshi, stated on X that it is widely believed Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was a "top-tier venture capitalist" who successfully invested in star projects like Anthropic and Cursor. However, Wang argued this narrative is inaccurate. The real "core figure" driving these investment strategies and early resource allocation was actually "AI stock guru" Leopold Aschenbrenner, not SBF himself.Analysis suggests that this remark has sparked discussion within the crypto and venture capital circles, once again bringing the attribution of SBF's influence on early-stage investments in Silicon Valley and the crypto industry into the spotlight. It is reported that the AI fund Situational Awareness, founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has grown to over $20 billion in scale, with quantitative giant Jane Street making a rare capital injection. Situational Awareness has achieved a year-to-date return rate of 270% and cumulative returns exceeding 1,000% since its inception. Equity bets on Anthropic have contributed the most successful returns, accounting for one-fifth of its assets. Beyond public markets, Situational Awareness also co-led an investment round in AI chip company MatX with Jane Street and participated in the latest funding round of AI cloud computing provider Fluidstack.
Monthly transaction volume of crypto VCs hits a five-year low, with capital concentrating in top-tier projects
According to The Block, the number of monthly crypto venture capital deals in May 2026 dropped to approximately 50—the lowest level since before 2021. Both historically most active sectors—infrastructure and crypto financial services—fell to multi-year lows. A large-scale shift of investor attention toward the AI sector, coupled with a shortage of high-quality early-stage projects, are the primary drivers behind this decline in deal volume. Although the number of deals declined, total funding remained relatively high, exhibiting a “fewer deals, larger amounts” pattern—the recent $1 billion fundraising round by prediction market platform Kalshi being a prime example. Analysts note that the current low-noise environment actually presents a window of opportunity for projects with clear use cases and genuine traction. Whether a recovery emerges in the second half of 2026 will depend on whether new sectors beyond prediction markets and financial infrastructure can generate broad-based investment consensus at scale.
Analysis: Pre-IPO Hype Spills Over into Prediction Markets, Pre-IPO Trading Becomes a New Trend
as anticipation builds for several potential major IPOs, "prediction market trading" centered around high-profile pre-IPO companies is rapidly heating up, with users betting on pre-IPO performance through prediction contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become primary channels, allowing users to engage in "yes/no" contract trading on key metrics such as valuation ranges and listing timelines. Prices are quoted in cents, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct.Given that ordinary investors cannot directly participate in equity investments in popular private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before their IPOs, prediction markets are converting related expectations into tradeable, event-driven assets.Analysts believe that as the window for potential "mega IPOs" approaches, prediction markets are leveraging public sentiment and capital attention to turn IPO narratives into short-term volatility opportunities on both on-chain and compliant trading platforms, further expanding their influence in financial speculation and information pricing. (The Information)
Prediction market platform Kalshi raises another $200 million, bringing its total funding to over $1.2 billion
According to Bloomberg, prediction market platform Kalshi Inc. has added two new institutional investors, raising an additional $200 million and bringing the total funding for this round to over $1.2 billion. The newly added investors are Layer Global, led by Anton Levy, and the prominent asset management firm Baillie Gifford—both of which are investing in Kalshi for the first time.
Kalshi closes $200 million Series F extension round, with Baillie Gifford and Layer Global participating
sources revealed prediction market platform Kalshi has raised an additional $200 million from Baillie Gifford and Layer Global, further expanding the $1 billion funding round previously led by Coatue Management, while maintaining a company valuation of $22 billion.Earlier this month, Kalshi announced the completion of a $1 billion Series F round, with participants including Sequoia Capital, a16z, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest.Data shows that Kalshi's monthly trading volume in April exceeded $14 billion, with annualized revenue surpassing $1.5 billion. (Bloomberg)
CFTC sues Minnesota over its blanket ban on prediction markets
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice have filed a lawsuit against the state of Minnesota and Governor Tim Walz, opposing the state's newly signed ban on prediction markets.The new Minnesota law, set to take effect on August 1, prohibits users from engaging in prediction market trading related to outcomes in sports, weather, company valuations, and government events. In the lawsuit, the CFTC stated this is the first state-level law in the U.S. to explicitly impose a comprehensive ban on prediction markets.The CFTC and the Department of Justice argue that the relevant products fall under federally regulated derivatives and "swap" contracts, over which the CFTC holds exclusive regulatory authority, and that state governments are not permitted to classify them as illegal gambling or prohibit them.This lawsuit further escalates the jurisdictional conflict between federal regulators and state-level gambling oversight authorities. Previously, the CFTC had sued states such as Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to oppose their attempts to shut down prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
CFTC sues New Mexico, continuing battle for regulatory control of sports prediction markets
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Former SEC Chair Gensler Opposes CFTC Jurisdiction Over Sports Prediction Markets
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Y Combinator: Clarity Act Could Drive Crypto Integration Across All YC Portfolio Companies
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.
Osasuna Denies Involvement in Kalshi Relegation Prediction Rumors, Predictive Market's "Insurance-like" Mechanism Draws Regulatory Attention
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract associated with the club saw a rapid surge in trading volume, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025-2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be using "reverse betting" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in predictive market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed a bet on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed it had purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through brokerage firm Howden. Kalshi, for its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risk within a prediction market: the insurance broker bears the hedging risk, rather than the club directly engaging in transactions, describing the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.Notably, despite suffering a loss in a crucial match, Osasuna ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its rivals failed to surpass them in points.The incident has also sparked debate over the boundaries of prediction market use cases: it is evolving from a speculative tool into a real-world risk hedging instrument, potentially playing an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.Meanwhile, the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched a regulatory investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms for operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
Bernstein: 2026 World Cup Expected to Drive Up to $10 Billion in Trading Volume for Prediction Markets
investment firm Bernstein has released a report indicating that the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in North America, is expected to drive up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital.Bernstein analysts pointed out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercially launch its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera. Institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, on the Myriad platform, Spain and France have the highest odds of winning. (Decrypt)
Kalshi develops AI agent "Harrison" to stress-test prediction market contracts and betting logic
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
CFTC sues New Mexico, continuing battle for regulatory control of sports prediction markets
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Former SEC Chair Gensler Opposes CFTC Jurisdiction Over Sports Prediction Markets
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Y Combinator: Clarity Act Could Drive Crypto Integration Across All YC Portfolio Companies
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.
Related news
Kalshi develops AI agent "Harrison" to stress-test prediction market contracts and betting logic
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
CFTC Sues New Mexico to Defend Federal Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets
According to Cointelegraph, on June 13 local time, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a federal lawsuit against the Governor, Attorney General, and members of the New Mexico Gaming Control Board, seeking to block the state from applying its gaming laws to CFTC-registered contract markets. Earlier, on June 4, New Mexico sued prediction market platform Kalshi, accusing it of offering sports betting services to residents without proper licensing and allowing users aged 18 to 20 to access the platform—below the state’s legal gambling age of 21. The CFTC contends that the relevant contracts fall under the definition of “swaps” under federal commodity law, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over such contract markets. New Mexico is the eighth state against which the CFTC has filed suit over jurisdictional disputes concerning prediction markets; prior lawsuits have been brought against Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois.
Polymarket's "Post-Hoc Clarification" Sparks Controversy: A Student's $35,000 Prediction Voided, $3.8 Million in Positions Wiped Out
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
Multiple institutions jointly sue Kentucky over 14.25% prediction market tax, involving Kalshi and Polymarket
an industry coalition consisting of Kalshi, Polymarket, and others has filed a lawsuit in court to block Kentucky's 14.25% transaction tax on prediction markets. The tax, passed by the Kentucky General Assembly in April this year, imposes a 14.25% excise tax on transaction fees charged by prediction market operators, and is considered the first state-level targeted tax on the industry in the United States. The plaintiff, the "Fair Market Coalition," claims the tax is discriminatory, unconstitutional, and may already be preempted by federal law. The lawsuit argues that imposing higher tax burdens on prediction markets is clearly unfair and could distort market competition. (Abcnews)
CFTC sues New Mexico, continuing battle for regulatory control of sports prediction markets
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.