News linked to both this project and an event.
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract associated with the club saw a rapid surge in trading volume, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025-2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be using "reverse betting" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in predictive market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed a bet on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed it had purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through brokerage firm Howden. Kalshi, for its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risk within a prediction market: the insurance broker bears the hedging risk, rather than the club directly engaging in transactions, describing the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.Notably, despite suffering a loss in a crucial match, Osasuna ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its rivals failed to surpass them in points.The incident has also sparked debate over the boundaries of prediction market use cases: it is evolving from a speculative tool into a real-world risk hedging instrument, potentially playing an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.Meanwhile, the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched a regulatory investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms for operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will formally propose new regulatory rules for prediction markets on Wednesday. The proposed rules would empower regulators to prohibit prediction contracts that are not in the public interest or pose a clear risk of manipulation—especially where a single individual could significantly influence the outcome. The new rules will provide a clearer compliance framework for prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, while continuing to permit most sports-related betting contracts.
according to sources familiar with the matter, the CFTC is proposing a broad set of new rules to regulate prediction markets. The parameters of these rules will continue to allow most sports-related betting while striving to avoid obvious manipulation.According to a copy of the proposed rule seen by the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. CFTC will propose new regulations on Wednesday seeking to block prediction bets deemed not in the public interest or highly susceptible to manipulation, such as in situations where an individual could have an outsized influence on the outcome.The agency's proposal does not directly prohibit trading any specific type of so-called event contracts, but rather outlines the factors regulators will use to review certain types of contracts on a case-by-case basis.The U.S. CFTC has previously provided some initial guidance on which types of bets should be avoided, and Kalshi and other prediction platforms have already taken proactive steps.Additionally, sources familiar with the matter revealed that the CFTC is considering other rules, including those aimed at protecting retail traders. (WSJ)
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Terry Duffy, CEO of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, said he is very concerned about the perpetual futures contracts recently approved by US regulators. Terry Duffy stated that perpetual futures have almost no practical use for institutional investors but expose retail investors to excessive risk. He completely disagrees with the CFTC's decision to approve the first batch of crypto perpetual futures contracts after a quick review and said he has called the CFTC Chairman to express his concerns.Terry Duffy warned that perpetual futures and prediction markets are fueling a retail speculation frenzy that could be a disaster waiting to happen. The first batch of perpetual futures contracts approved by the CFTC were listed by Kalshi, and multiple US exchanges are also discussing launching their own perpetual futures contracts. (Bloomberg)
Digital trading platform Moomoo has announced a partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi to offer eligible users access to event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can trade contracts related to major events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, elections, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup directly through the Moomoo platform.Event contracts are exchange-traded derivatives that allow investors to bet on the outcome of specific events. Contract prices range from $0.01 to $1, reflecting the market's expectation of the probability of each event occurring. These products will be integrated into the platform alongside Moomoo's existing offerings of stocks, options, and ETFs. Additionally, Moomoo has recently launched cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal functionality, as well as the moomoo API Skills service for AI-powered investment tools, continuing to expand its product ecosystem. (CoinDesk)
: Nine Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives have called on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate prediction markets, reviewing whether their advertising campaigns are consistent with the statements they make to regulators. Representatives Kevin Mullin and Gabe Vasquez stated that prediction market platforms present themselves to regulators as financial instruments offering investment products, yet advertise to the public as gambling platforms. This contradictory information could mislead consumers.The lawmakers have requested that the FTC provide a detailed response by June 29 on whether it plans to launch an investigation or take enforcement action against prediction markets. Prediction markets have recently come under scrutiny over insider trading issues, and Congress launched investigations into Polymarket and Kalshi in May. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket believes competitor Kalshi may have engaged in industrial espionage targeting its New York office and employees. Polymarket's marketing head confirmed the company is conducting an internal investigation, stating there are "too many coincidences" and suspecting Kalshi of malicious intent.According to reports, Polymarket has internally compiled a file named "The Imitators," documenting approximately a dozen suspicious incidents. These include Polymarket's original plan to launch a free grocery pop-up event on February 12, while Kalshi launched a similar event approximately nine days earlier. Additionally, Polymarket was scheduled to announce its perpetual contract product plans on April 21, but about an hour before the announcement, tech media outlet The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing to launch a similar product.Polymarket employees are also concerned that the office of venture capital firm Paradigm, which supports Kalshi, is located directly opposite their workspace, potentially allowing for monitoring of employees' computer screens. It is reported that Polymarket installed window film on some office windows this spring.In response, a Kalshi spokesperson denied all allegations, calling Polymarket's suspicions "pathetic and bordering on delusional." (New York Post)
prediction market platform Kalshi announced on platform X that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially online. This marks the first U.S. regulatory-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract product. The product is a perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin and is classified as a futures contract. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously stated that, following review, the BTCPERP contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and relevant regulatory requirements, including the core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCM).
Prediction market platform Kalshi has submitted a self-certification application to launch derivatives linked to Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Stellar, Chainlink, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Sui, Shiba Inu, Polkadot, and Hedera. This follows the CFTC's approval of Bitcoin perpetual futures last Friday. The CFTC stated that perpetual futures products that US companies intend to list, other than Bitcoin, will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, and noted that the design of such derivatives may not be suitable for all asset classes. Therefore, this batch of products submitted by Kalshi has not yet been approved.
digital asset management firm Grayscale stated in its latest report that the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain-based financial infrastructure platform. In the future, it may even challenge the traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems, growing into a "financial services giant."The report shows that Hyperliquid generated approximately $800 million in revenue in 2025, with a full-year perpetual contract trading volume of about $2.9 trillion and open interest of roughly $7 billion, capturing a significant share of the crypto derivatives market. Grayscale believes the platform is no longer limited to crypto trading. Through the HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, it is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets, gradually building a 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure.In another report, FalconX also pointed out that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges like the CME Group, as well as prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and is making progress in new markets like Pre-IPO.The report also emphasized that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for US users, as the regulatory framework gradually clarifies and institutions like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products, this sector may see broader growth potential in the future. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Planet Daily reports: Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani posted on X platform analyzing three possible scenarios for the development of Kalshi and the US crypto perpetual contract market:1. Kalshi's previous efforts are irrelevant: Because the US market itself can already offer unregulated perpetual contracts.2. Protocols must pass the eight decentralized tests of the CLARITY Act: If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, protocols can offer perpetual contracts in the US without registering as a DCO (Designated Contract Organizer) and DCM (Designated Contract Market).3. Products can still attract users but cannot legally enter the US financial system: Even with user recognition, protocols may still be unable to distribute within a compliant framework.Analysis suggests that these potential outcomes highlight the complex relationship between current US derivatives regulation and decentralized protocols, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the compliant implementation of innovative financial products.
: John Wang, head of Kalshi's crypto business, posted on X platform, saying in a joking tone that "Kalshi is not a cryptocurrency company."John Wang stated that Kalshi is the first regulated platform in the United States to legally offer crypto perpetual contract trading; cryptocurrency-related prediction market trading volume accounts for approximately 70% of the platform's total trading volume, making it the second-largest business category. Meanwhile, Kalshi also serves as a liquidity layer for Coinbase and Phantom's frontend, and only accepts cryptocurrency for international deposits.He once again joked at the end: "That's right, Kalshi is not a cryptocurrency company."
Odaily News, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Market Participants Division today issued an interpretive opinion and a "No-Action Letter" in response to an application from Coinbase Financial Markets, allowing it to offer trading services for certain digital commodity derivatives through its affiliated offshore trading platform, Deribit. CFTC staff confirmed that, based on the framework approved for Kalshi's BTCPERP contract on May 29, 2026, relevant crypto perpetual contracts can be classified as "foreign futures" as defined under Regulation 30.1.Simultaneously, under the fulfillment of specific conditions, the CFTC's Market Participants Division stated it does not recommend enforcement action against Coinbase Financial Markets. This allows Coinbase to transfer customer-held digital commodities and stablecoins, used as margin, to its affiliated offshore broker-dealer to support trading positions in foreign futures and options, even if the relevant offshore broker-dealer has the right to rehypothecate these assets.Analysts believe this statement further clarifies the classification path for crypto perpetual contracts within the U.S. regulatory framework and provides institutional space for compliant entities to access derivatives trading through offshore liquidity markets.
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an approval order to KalshiEX, LLC, a designated contract market (DCM), allowing it to list the perpetual contract BTCPERP, which references the spot price of Bitcoin, for trading as a futures product. The contract was submitted for review on May 29, 2026, pursuant to CFTC Regulation 40.3.The CFTC reviewed the BTCPERP contract under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and relevant regulations, confirming that it complies with the CEA and CFTC rules, including core principles applicable to DCMs. The approval order requires Kalshi to strictly adhere to the CEA and all relevant CFTC regulations when listing and maintaining the contract.The CFTC also noted that the perpetual contract structure is not suitable for all asset classes and encouraged market participants to voluntarily submit applications for perpetual contract approval under the 40.3 rulemaking for uncovered assets to ensure compliance and robust market development.
According to CoinDesk, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit challenging a new Minnesota law set to take effect on August 1 that criminalizes operating, hosting, or promoting prediction market platforms. Kalshi argues the law is unconstitutional, asserting it infringes upon the Commodity Exchange Act’s grant of exclusive federal jurisdiction over derivatives markets to the CFTC and violates the First Amendment by restricting advertising. Earlier, on May 19, the CFTC filed a motion making the same constitutional challenge against the state law. U.S. President Trump has also publicly voiced support for the CFTC’s sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Kalshi previously secured preliminary injunctions in similar enforcement actions brought by New Jersey and Arizona.