News linked to both this project and an event.
a poll shows approximately 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose using prediction markets to bet on U.S. elections, military actions, and policy announcements, with only 8% and 9% respectively supporting such betting. Respondents consider such markets unethical, socially corrosive, and potentially harmful to national security. The prediction market industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, continues to expand, and policymakers are concerned that related platforms may open new channels for insider trading and manipulation.
The NFL filed a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court supporting New Jersey's lawsuit against Kalshi, arguing that sports contracts on prediction markets face manipulation risks and lack effective oversight.
Odaily News: The National Football League (NFL) has joined the position opposing federal regulation of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and has filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court. The related case may enter its final ruling stage.Several other briefs were submitted to the U.S. Supreme Court this week, including filings from former regulator Gary Gensler and former Senator Chris Dodd. Chris Dodd once championed a bill under which the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argues it should have final regulatory authority as the overseer of prediction markets. (CoinDesk)
oracle network Pyth Network has released its Q3 business report, stating that as of the end of September, its active annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $11.49 million, up 86.5% from the previous quarter, with net new ARR of $5.33 million in Q3.On the exchange side, the trading volume of real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contract markets powered by Pyth data reached $2.09 trillion in Q3, accounting for 94.1% of the total volume in related markets. In prediction markets, Pyth has provided data support for platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Among them, Kalshi listed Pyth as the data source provider for its gold and silver perpetual contract markets in relevant regulatory filings. In the AI sector, Pyth is testing financial data infrastructure for AI agents with Exa, providing real-time prices, historical data, and candlestick data to enable AI systems to incorporate market information into analysis and decision-making.Additionally, Pyth DAO approved the "100% Rule," under which all future revenue the DAO receives from Pyth products will be used for open market buybacks of PYTH tokens. Compared to the previous practice of using only one-third of non-PYTH asset balances for buybacks, the allocation ratio has been increased threefold.
Odaily reports: Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, speaking at a panel discussion at Token2049 alongside OKX CEO Star Xu, said the crypto industry has overwhelmingly supported the Republican Party and has alienated the Democratic support needed to advance the CLARITY Act.During the 2026 election cycle, crypto-focused political action committees have spent $54.3 million supporting Republicans, $26.2 million supporting Democrats, and another $23.2 million opposing Democrats.As of Thursday, Kalshi prediction markets show Democrats have about a 61% chance of winning both chambers of the U.S. Congress. Cuomo said a Democrat-controlled Congress could roll back regulators' crypto policies or work with the Trump administration to advance a full CLARITY Act.Cuomo said Democrats are not opposed to crypto technology, which can help people who previously lacked access to financial products obtain related services. In July 2025, 78 House Democrats joined 216 Republicans in voting to pass the CLARITY Act. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has won a partial preliminary injunction against the state of Illinois. On October 2, Judge Martha M. Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois ruled that the state's sports betting licensing regime and related criminal provisions may be preempted by federal law and cannot currently be enforced against Kalshi.The ruling temporarily blocks Illinois from requiring Kalshi to hold a state license, which was originally intended to restrict traders to those aged 21 or older and physically located within the state, as well as to limit the sporting events that contracts could track. The court also declined to rule on Illinois's newly established prediction market fees.Pacold stated that contracts on championship winners may constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and should be traded on designated contract markets and subject to federal regulation. This determination differs from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' August conclusion that such contracts constitute gambling rather than swaps.This is Kalshi's first victory in federal court since July. Illinois's new budget law imposes a 1.75% fee on the first 5 million relevant transactions on exchanges, then 3.5% thereafter, plus a 15% gross revenue fee and a per-transaction fee of 25 or 50 cents; the court has asked the parties to submit supplemental briefs on the fee issue. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Ariel Givner, Judge Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued a ruling supporting a partial preliminary injunction in a lawsuit involving Coinbase, Kalshi, and the U.S. federal government/U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, thwarting Illinois' attempt to classify sports event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi under the state's gambling regulations in its initial legal push.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former U.S. Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger for using a Kalshi account on a prediction market platform to bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon. The trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025.Kinzinger confirmed that he participated in contract trading related to his own pardon and whether Biden would issue a preventive pardon, stating that he made approximately 25 trades, with the majority resulting in losses overall, and that the related trading generated a profit of $823. He denied any wrongdoing, saying he did not possess non-public information. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Prediction market operator Kalshi is in negotiations for a $1 billion funding round at a target valuation of $40 billion. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in discussions to lead the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating in talks.The funding round has not yet been finalized, and the final list of investors and closing date have not been disclosed. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025, and completed a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Kalshi on September 25 in lawsuits involving Ohio and Tennessee, allowing the two states to regulate its sports contracts under gambling laws. Kalshi argues that its products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Bitcoin.com News)
Kalshi lost its appeal as the Sixth Circuit Court ruled that states may regulate sports betting contracts, a decision that diverges from its prior partial victories and could pave the way for the case to reach the Supreme Court.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit recently ruled that sports-related contracts on the Kalshi platform fall under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal financial derivatives. This ruling deepens the split within the national judicial system over regulatory authority for prediction markets, and the case is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Odaily News: A panel of judges on the US Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that prediction market platform Kalshi's sports event contracts do not constitute swaps, and are therefore subject to state-level gambling regulation rather than US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules.The ruling involves two lawsuits filed by Kalshi against regulatory authorities in Ohio and Tennessee. Kalshi sought injunctions to block the two states from pursuing legal action against it, but the Ohio federal court denied its request, while the Tennessee federal court granted it. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: Two U.S. federal appellate courts have issued conflicting rulings on whether states can regulate Kalshi sports event contracts, and New Jersey has filed for U.S. Supreme Court review. At the heart of the dispute is whether these contracts are federally regulated financial swaps or should be subject to state gambling laws. Approximately 70% of Kalshi's daily trading volume comes from sports; if states gain regulatory authority, Kalshi could face state taxes of 10% to 51% on gambling revenue and other restrictions.
Odaily reports: Since August, the Ethereum perpetual contract market on prediction market platform Kalshi has seen nearly 1 million trades of nearly identical amounts, with notional trading volume exceeding $5 billion over the past month. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reviewing the related activity and has not yet decided whether to open an investigation.In the 24 hours up to Wednesday 12:17 UTC, the market recorded 136,474 trades, with a trading value of approximately $584 million. More than 73,200 of those trades were concentrated at roughly $5,426 each, accounting for 54% of the trade count and 68% of the trading value. Open interest stood at $6.6 million, with single-day volume about 88 times the size of open interest.Kalshi said the repeated amounts came from fixed-size orders placed by market makers and involved hundreds of different traders, and were not wash trading. The platform said its system blocks self-trades and that the related transactions are monitored. As of now, regulators have not announced any enforcement action. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to The Block, all Democratic members of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee wrote to Committee Chairman Tim Scott, calling for a bipartisan public hearing on prediction markets rather than discussing them in closed-door sessions. That day, Republican members met privately with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss securities-linked products, investor protection, and related regulatory issues.
Odaily reports: The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) has filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court in support of the New Jersey Attorney General and gambling regulators' petition to hear their case against prediction market platform Kalshi. The petition seeks to clarify whether state governments or federal agencies have jurisdiction over prediction market companies.NCLGS stated that if the ruling favors Kalshi, states would be unable to regulate sports betting within prediction markets, potentially leading to regulatory confusion. The council believes that gambling-related matters should be handled by state regulators, and noted that casinos and other regulated entities may adjust their operations and products accordingly.New Jersey authorities filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on September 2, stemming from their appeal of a Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruling. Kalshi has not yet formally responded and must submit its position brief by November 9; the company has previously stated that it cannot be regulated separately by 50 different regulators. (Cointelegraph)
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on whether sports prediction activities conducted by prediction markets such as Kalshi constitute illegal sports gambling. Previously, a federal appellate court upheld state regulatory authority, prompting more states and tribes to intervene in related litigation.
Prediction market platform Kalshi stated it is not under investigation by the CFTC, clarifying media reports of regulatory scrutiny. The project explained that the anomalous trading data resulted from its liquidity incentive program.
Eleven Democratic senators on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee are urging Committee Chairman Tim Scott to hold a hearing on prediction markets. Previously, the committee planned to hold a prediction market roundtable next week attended only by Republican senators, focusing on securities-based prediction markets, with a Kalshi representative expected to attend. Currently, primary regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets falls under the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.