News linked to both this project and an event.
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
A Kalshi public relations representative stated that U.S. states do not have the jurisdictional authority to regulate prediction markets, a legal boundary that has been clarified through relevant case law by multiple courts, including the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.Kalshi expressed disappointment over Washington State's continued allocation of public financial resources to advance related regulatory actions, asserting that the authority to regulate prediction markets should rest at the federal level.
that, according to Daniel Wallach, a U.S. Washington State court has issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ruling that its operations violate Washington state gambling laws and constitute illegal gambling activities; moreover, the Commodity Exchange Act does not have the authority to supersede state-level gambling laws.
According to The Block, Bernstein stated that before the compliant computing power futures planned by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are approved, AI computing power derivatives adopting crypto market mechanisms have already launched. Currently, Architect's offshore trading platform AX has launched GPU perpetual futures, while Kalshi has listed GPU rental price event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday suspended an emergency rule by Kalshi, preventing it from forcibly liquidating open sports event contracts held by certain Michigan residents, and requiring Kalshi to follow normal procedures to fulfill related transactions. Kalshi submitted the emergency rule on July 12, after the Ingham County Circuit Court in Michigan orally requested it to close some positions. A letter dated July 6 stated that the related transactions must be voided, canceled, and refunded. The dispute began in March, when Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel and the Michigan Gaming Control Board sued Kalshi, alleging that its sports event contracts constituted unlicensed internet sports betting. Kalshi argues that the relevant products are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC stated that allowing Kalshi's emergency rule to take effect could undermine confidence that completed derivatives transactions will be honored and could cause significant market disruption. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that a state government cannot force a designated contract market to violate its obligations.
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Odaily News: Kalshi originally planned to cancel prediction market trades placed by Michigan customers following a court order, but the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission intervened, stating that Michigan has no authority over the contracts. The CFTC prevented the company from complying with the court order, which stemmed from Michigan's recent attempt to halt sports-related trading. Michigan's Attorney General argued that such trades constitute illegal gambling. Michigan is one of several states where the derivatives regulator is defending its legal authority over prediction markets. (CoinDesk).
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted that Judge Analisa Torres of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied its preliminary injunction application in the case involving Kalshi, allowing the case to proceed to the motion to dismiss stage. The court held that New York State gambling law applies to Kalshi's sports event contracts, and such application is not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling means Kalshi has suffered another unfavorable setback in the relevant legal dispute.
the prediction market industry, represented by Kalshi, is dealing with legal disputes in multiple US states, arguing in a series of court hearings this week that state regulators should not have jurisdiction over the matter. These legal challenges are progressing in Nevada and Michigan, with live arguments taking place in Minnesota, and the case could potentially be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Meanwhile, North Carolina is close to imposing a state tax on prediction market revenue. (CoinDesk).
: Music streaming platform Spotify has deleted over 500,000 fake streams for the song "Earrings" by musician Malcolm Todd. The song had been pushed to the top of the charts. Spotify's investigation found that the stream manipulation was linked to prediction market betting activities, where traders on the Kalshi platform placed bets on which song would become the most-streamed track on Spotify in the US in June. The market had a trading volume of $3 million. Before Spotify completed its investigation, Kalshi declared Todd the winner and settled the market based on the manipulated data. After discovering the issue, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove their branding and clarify that there is no partnership between them. Kalshi stated it is cooperating with the investigation, while Polymarket has not responded.
the Massachusetts Attorney General has received court approval to file an amended complaint against the prediction market platform Kalshi, adding allegations that Kalshi markets to users under the age of 21 through social media and campus campaigns, and has failed to take effective measures to prevent them from using the platform. Kalshi allows individuals aged 18 and older to create accounts and place bets on sports events. The case originated in September 2025, with state authorities accusing Kalshi of offering sports betting in violation of state law. The CFTC previously filed a brief in Massachusetts asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, with Chairman Michael Selig stating that Congress has granted the CFTC sole authority to regulate the commodity derivatives market. Kalshi has not yet responded to requests for comment. (Cointelegraph)
According to Reuters, Michigan Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina issued a temporary restraining order against prediction market platform Kalshi on June 29 local time upon the application of State Attorney General Dana Nessel, prohibiting it from offering sports event contract trading to Michigan residents and requiring it to connect to third-party geolocation services licensed by the state Gaming Control Board, or face a fine of $120,000 per day. Michigan thus becomes the second state to ban Kalshi through a court injunction after Nevada, while a similar injunction in Massachusetts was suspended due to Kalshi's appeal. Kalshi maintains that its business is under the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and stated it will continue to fight in court.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently launched an investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, and the investigation is still ongoing.Previously, including a lawsuit filed by a consumer protection organization accepted by the Washington High Court, Polymarket has faced multiple allegations of using paid endorsements on social media for misleading promotion, specifically targeting college students. A Polymarket spokesperson responded that the company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and is currently conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure compliance with standards and regulatory disclosure requirements. Additionally, over a dozen U.S. states have taken legal action against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting, while the CFTC has countersued some states, asserting exclusive jurisdiction. (FT)
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that former U.S. Acting Solicitor General Prelogar, representing the Coalition for Prediction Markets, has submitted an amicus brief supporting Kalshi to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, describing it as a “masterpiece.” Paul Grewal pointed out that the document not only outlines the historical background of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets but also presents three key arguments:1. Prediction markets can uniquely aggregate market information and convert it into simple price signals, collectively aggregated by market participants.2. Users of prediction markets trade at prices that market participants are willing to accept. They cannot control contract prices and bear the legal obligation to provide users with fair access to contracts.3. The laws of various U.S. states are unsuitable for regulating prediction markets because their core objectives are not to maintain fair markets, price discovery, information aggregation, risk hedging, or prevent market manipulation.
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
According to Cryptopolitan, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Attorney General Kwame Raoul, among other officials, in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois over the state’s newly signed SB3019 bill. The bill requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level operating licenses and imposes a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions involving Illinois residents; it is set to take effect on July 1. Kalshi argues that, as a CFTC-registered platform, it is protected under the Commodity Exchange Act, which grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over exchange-traded derivatives—a federal authority that conflicts with the state-level regulatory framework. The company has also sought both a temporary restraining order and a permanent injunction to prevent the bill from taking effect as scheduled.
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
this week that Kalshi has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Governor JB Pritzker, and other state officials.Kalshi stated that the state's budget bill, SB3019, which requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level licenses and is set to take effect on July 1, conflicts with the federal preemption provision of the Commodity Exchange Act, putting it in a position of either violating federal or state law. According to Kalshi, if it ceases to offer sports event contracts in Illinois to comply with the bill, it would violate the uniformity requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and harm its business interests. Kalshi has requested the court to grant a temporary restraining order, a preliminary injunction, and a permanent injunction to prevent Illinois from enforcing the law. (The Block)