News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Cointelegraph, prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking entry into the Japanese market and aims to obtain regulatory approval for prediction markets from the Japanese government by 2030. The report states that Polymarket has appointed Mike Eidlin, Japan Head of crypto firm Jupiter, to lead its local operations in Japan and advance related compliance efforts. Japan maintains strict regulation over online gambling, permitting only a limited number of government-authorized activities—such as horse racing and public lotteries. Although Polymarket has not yet received authorization to operate in Japan, its Japanese regional X (formerly Twitter) account has already amassed over 53,000 followers. Meanwhile, under regulatory pressure and amid competition from platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket’s monthly nominal trading volume declined nearly 15% month-on-month in April.
: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the National Hockey League (NHL) to strengthen the regulation of prediction markets. The two parties will enhance information sharing and collaboration to safeguard the fairness and integrity of the market for contracts related to professional hockey games and related events. This includes strengthening their existing event integrity monitoring systems and improving their ability to identify, prevent, and respond to potential risks. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to gain traction, especially following the 2024 U.S. election cycle, sports and event-based prediction markets are increasingly moving into the mainstream financial and regulatory spotlight. (The Block)
Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit against Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Public Safety Director Jon Anglin. The lawsuit stems from Minnesota's legislative approval of SF 4760, which imposes a comprehensive ban on prediction markets.The bill prohibits advertising, creating, operating, or promoting prediction market platforms, classifying event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as wagers and banning them, with an original effective date of August 1. In the lawsuit, the CFTC argues that under the Commodity Exchange Act, it has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, and is seeking a court order to block the state law. (cointelegraph)
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice have filed a lawsuit against the state of Minnesota and Governor Tim Walz, opposing the state's newly signed ban on prediction markets.The new Minnesota law, set to take effect on August 1, prohibits users from engaging in prediction market trading related to outcomes in sports, weather, company valuations, and government events. In the lawsuit, the CFTC stated this is the first state-level law in the U.S. to explicitly impose a comprehensive ban on prediction markets.The CFTC and the Department of Justice argue that the relevant products fall under federally regulated derivatives and "swap" contracts, over which the CFTC holds exclusive regulatory authority, and that state governments are not permitted to classify them as illegal gambling or prohibit them.This lawsuit further escalates the jurisdictional conflict between federal regulators and state-level gambling oversight authorities. Previously, the CFTC had sued states such as Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to oppose their attempts to shut down prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Odaily Despite warnings and related bans issued by the Indian government, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket still allow Indian users to register and trade.According to reports, India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology stated in a letter last month that Indian users are still accessing "illegal and already blocked prediction markets and online entertainment platforms." The relevant announcement was subsequently published on the ministry's official website, specifically naming "Polymarket and other similar websites," stating that these platforms should have been blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs). (Bloomberg)
According to Bloomberg, last month India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology warned that prediction markets such as Polymarket and online gambling platforms are illegal and should be blocked. Nevertheless, Polymarket and Kalshi continue to allow Indian users to register and participate in trading. In an official notice posted on its website, the relevant Indian government department stated that users can still access these “illegal and blocked platforms,” despite domestic bans already being in place, and instructed internet service providers to cut off access.
According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus curiae brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, supporting Kalshi’s appeal in its litigation against Ohio and asserting that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s regulatory jurisdiction. The CFTC stated that Ohio’s prior demand that Kalshi cease offering sports-event contracts constituted “jurisdictional overreach.” The CFTC warned that if states were permitted to restrict sports-event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCMs), the CFTC’s long-standing regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be undermined. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, supporting prediction market platform Kalshi and pushing back against a lawsuit previously filed by the state of Ohio.Ohio argues that Kalshi's prediction market operations constitute unlicensed sports betting, while the CFTC contends that these markets fall under federal regulatory authority and that states have no right to overstep those boundaries.CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the Ohio district court's previous interpretation of the CFTC's jurisdiction was "too narrow" and hopes the appellate court will correct this.Over the past few months, the CFTC has sued states including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York to defend its regulatory authority over prediction markets. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gain increasing popularity, the dispute over the regulatory boundary between federal and state governments continues to widen.
Trump Media & Technology Group is significantly adjusting its strategy for the prediction market product "Truth Predict." The project, originally planned to launch full trading functionality in partnership with Crypto.com, may now only materialize as a marketing and promotional collaboration, with a notable contraction in the scale of its features.According to the latest regulatory filings, the project is still under development. However, the initial phase will be limited to a promotional partnership with prediction market platform OG.com, rather than embedding trading functions directly within Truth Social. The market's initial vision of an integrated "social + prediction market trading" model appears to be diminished.Earlier plans indicated that Truth Predict intended to allow users to convert platform credits into crypto assets and participate in trading events related to sports, inflation, and elections. However, the newly disclosed structure leans more towards an "external platform traffic-redirecting partnership," with specific commercial mechanisms yet to be clarified. Meanwhile, the prediction market industry is experiencing rapid expansion alongside regulatory conflicts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to expand their sports and event contract businesses, but are also facing jurisdictional disputes between state-level gambling regulators and federal authorities.Analysts suggest that the strategic downsizing of Truth Predict reflects the increasing uncertainty surrounding compliance structures, product forms, and regulatory boundaries for prediction markets. Particularly against the backdrop of an as-yet-unified U.S. regulatory system, related products are trending towards "asset-light cooperation" models rather than direct financial integration into social platforms. (Wired)
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Odaily forecasts that the prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the completion of a new $1 billion funding round, led by Coatue Management, boosting the company's valuation to $22 billion. Kalshi is a prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of events such as sports, politics, and weather. Following the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the platform has seen significant user growth, gradually entering the mainstream financial market's spotlight.Data shows that Kalshi has approximately 2 million monthly active users, with an annualized trading volume reaching $178 billion. This volume has more than tripled over the past six months, resulting in an annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion.This funding round is also the third round of financing completed by Kalshi in the past seven months, with valuations nearly doubling each time. This reflects the continued warming of the prediction market track among institutional capital, albeit accompanied by regulatory lawsuits and controversies surrounding "insider trading." (The New York Times)
According to Bloomberg, academic research and Bloomberg data analysis show that prediction market platform Kalshi has not yet demonstrated a statistically significant advantage over traditional economists in forecasting U.S. nonfarm payrolls. Over the past 33 months, the average forecast error of Kalshi traders and Bloomberg survey economists both exceeded 60,000 jobs—showing no statistically meaningful edge. For example, in April 2026, when the official U.S. nonfarm payroll report revealed an increase of 178,000 jobs, Kalshi’s final forecast error exceeded 90,000 jobs. Some Wall Street economists argue that prediction markets resemble “a new form of gambling,” offering limited analytical value for deeper labor-market structural data.
According to The Information, Polymarket—four years after exiting the U.S. market—is attempting to re-enter the domestic market by acquiring a U.S.-licensed derivatives and futures exchange, thereby rejoining the regulated framework, and has appointed Justin Hertzberg to lead its U.S. operations. However, recent developments indicate that Polymarket’s U.S. business progress has fallen short of expectations, with its market share significantly trailing that of its main competitor, Kalshi. Reportedly, within the company, Justin Hertzberg assumes more of a “figurehead CEO” role, primarily responsible for signing regulatory documents, while his capacity to manage and scale U.S. operations remains limited. Overall, Polymarket’s re-entry into the U.S. market continues to face dual challenges—both regulatory and operational.
According to Cointelegraph, a survey by the Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad (FD) found that although Polymarket was banned in February this year by the Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) for operating without a gambling license, Kalshi, crypto exchange Hyperliquid, and investment giant Interactive Brokers continue to offer prediction market services to Dutch users.
a regulatory review delay by the U.S. SEC has prevented the first batch of ETF products linked to prediction markets from launching as scheduled, postponing their listing timeline. Multiple institutions, including Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise Asset Management, submitted applications for over 20 prediction market-related ETFs in February this year. These event-driven products cover topics such as election outcomes, economic recessions, tech layoffs, and commodity prices.Under SEC rules, ETFs typically automatically become effective within 75 days of filing, unless the regulator requests further review. These products were originally expected to launch this week, but their listing has been delayed as the SEC has requested issuers to provide additional details on product mechanisms and disclosures. Relevant sources indicate this delay may be a short-term adjustment. These ETFs typically track "yes/no" event probabilities—such as election results or economic indicators—through derivative instruments and are linked to CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms like Kalshi. Each contract pays $1 if the event occurs, or zero otherwise.While prediction market trading has recently grown rapidly due to increased activity surrounding political events and geopolitical conflicts, it has also raised regulatory concerns regarding insider trading and market manipulation. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer noted that innovative financial products often require a longer regulatory cycle but may ultimately succeed, emphasizing that prediction market ETFs could become a new channel for retail investors to access event-based trading. (Reuters)
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on its proposed rules for prediction markets, reflecting intensifying regulatory discussion in this space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the proposed regulatory framework, viewing it as conducive to industry standardization and development. However, some stakeholders have called for stricter regulation and enforcement measures to mitigate potential risks. Market analysts note that this comment period highlights substantial disagreement regarding the compliance boundaries, product classification, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets. The finalization of these rules may thus become a pivotal factor shaping the industry’s future development.
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.