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CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a clear "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its historical bull and bear cycles. As the asset's scale expands, the price increase generated per unit of new capital continues to decline:In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%;In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to a roughly 10,000% gain;In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to a roughly 2,000% gain;In the current cycle starting from 2022, approximately $697 billion in capital has been attracted, but the gain is about 689%.The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values coins based on their price at their last movement, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin to experience another parabolic rally, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than just an ETF-driven trading asset.Ki Young Ju also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, indicating that market structural demand is still in a transitional phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects the natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization expands. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in, achieving the high-multiple growth seen in earlier cycles will be difficult. (CoinDesk)
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler posted on platform X, stating that Bitcoin has begun to enter the later stage of the bear market cycle, with the ETF sector releasing its first signal of easing pressure. In the latest trading session, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $223 million, with the majority of funds flowing into Fidelity's FBTC ($166 million) and ARK Invest's ARKB ($91.8 million).
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant reports that the volume of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins flowing into exchanges has recently increased significantly. Historically, this pattern often signals that the crypto market is about to enter a phase of higher volatility.Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that on June 30, the number of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges approached 49,000 BTC, an extremely rare level. This year, there have only been four other instances of single-day inflow peaks nearing 50,000 BTC, and these peaks have typically been followed by a notable amplification in price volatility and clear directional moves.The report suggests that, given the current scale of inflows, the market is absorbing a large amount of Bitcoin being transferred to exchanges. Since transferring to exchanges usually implies potential selling pressure, position adjustments, or increased demand for derivatives margin, this could trigger more drastic price fluctuations.CryptoQuant also notes that the volume of Ethereum and altcoins flowing into exchanges is rising, indicating that the pressure is not limited to Bitcoin but is spreading across the broader crypto asset market. Overall, a surge in exchange inflows may signal that a more significant change in short-term market direction is imminent.
CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech stated that data shows the altcoin market, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, continues to be under pressure. The cumulative buy-sell volume difference for altcoins in June has touched an extreme low not seen in nearly five years and is currently probing further lower, reflecting that the spot market remains dominated by continuous net selling. Since retreating from the highs in early 2025, selling pressure has not eased significantly, and the market has not yet shown clear signs of stabilization.
According to on-chain analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) based on CryptoQuant data monitoring, since June 29 (Monday), a total of 113,483.30 BTC (approximately $6.97 billion) have been transferred on-chain. All transferred coins have a coin age exceeding 3 months, of which 22,921.26 BTC (approximately $1.41 billion) came from long-term addresses holding for over 2 years.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the view "the market bottom has formed (the bottom is in)" is continuously emerging in the community, but many people overlook the true meaning of "bottom". From a technical perspective, a bottom usually refers to the lowest point reached during the trend reversal process, specifically the position of the deepest lower shadow on the K-line (even on extremely short timeframes) in extreme cases.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin Net Supply Ratio has been in negative territory for a consecutive week, recently dropping to -0.075, triggering a buy signal. This indicator is based on the profit/loss status of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO), used to evaluate the profit or loss level of the overall market supply, thereby assisting in judging whether an accumulation phase is forming.
CryptoQuant CEO stated in a post that Bitcoin's capital efficiency is continuously declining—in 2011, a net inflow of only $5 million was sufficient to double the price, while this cycle requires approximately $101 billion to achieve the same effect. He believes that the next parabolic bull market cycle may require net capital inflows in the trillions of dollars, and Bitcoin must transition from retail-dominated ETF trading to a core macro asset. If Bitcoin's actual market capitalization can surpass $1 trillion, the next bull market is still likely to occur, while gold's current market capitalization has already reached $27 trillion, indicating considerable growth potential in comparison.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading narrowly between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth consecutive day. However, analysts warn that this "calm" market condition may conceal greater risks, with the key issue being that this oscillation is occurring within a downtrend.FxPro's Chief Market Analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, stated that the current price action resembles Bitcoin's consolidation between $55,000 and $70,000 from March to October 2024, but the contexts differ. The previous consolidation occurred in a rising market, whereas the current oscillation is below support levels. Additionally, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending downward, indicating the market remains bearish.Kuptsikevich noted that if this consolidation pattern breaks to the downside, rather than forming a base for a rebound, Bitcoin's next significant support zone could be near the $40,000 level.On-chain data is also signaling pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost indicated that long-term holders may be engaging in loss-making selling behavior. In historical cycles, this phase is typically accompanied by short-term pressure, but it may also become a long-term buying opportunity.Meanwhile, market demand remains relatively weak, with active address counts and on-chain transaction activity both at recent lows. Financial pressure on corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy has also heightened market concerns. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently fell to around $71, while its common stock dropped approximately 25% in a week, hitting its lowest level since February 2024.Strategy previously stated that it might sell over $1 billion worth of its Bitcoin reserves to improve its financial situation. This is seen as a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor's "never sell" strategy.Additionally, a strengthening US dollar and continued capital flows into AI-related assets in the US stock market are exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets like Bitcoin. BTC is currently on track to end the second quarter with a decline of approximately 13%, while US stocks remain strong due to the AI investment boom. (CoinDesk)
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out in a post that the Bitcoin S2F regression model is gradually approaching historically extreme undervalued zones. This model is used to measure the deviation of market price relative to S2F fair value, thereby identifying significant overvalued or undervalued phases.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 表示，比特币在再次测试 6 万美元关口后，币安与欧易相关存款地址出现大规模比特币流入，其中币安流入超过 22 万枚 BTC，欧易流入超过 33 万枚 BTC，合计超过 55 万枚 BTC，显著高于两平台年内平均水平。
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out in a post that the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Profit/Loss model has fallen into the range commonly seen during historical bottoms, indicating the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup. However, the analyst emphasized that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed—the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than being merely a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound triggered by a short squeeze may occur currently, if the profit/loss ratio fails to rebuild sustainably, it should not be regarded as a signal of structural recovery. Overall, signs of BTC internal cleanup are emerging, but historical patterns indicate the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully exiting this bear market.
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a recent CNBC interview that he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, while strongly criticizing Michael Saylor and his strategy of continuously purchasing Bitcoin by financing through preferred stock, arguing that this "financial engineering" approach is negatively impacting the crypto market.Garlinghouse pointed out that Strategy's reliance on issuing preferred stock (such as STRC) to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases essentially acts as a distraction in the market rather than creating long-term value. He emphasized: "Financial engineering does not create long-term value; the long-term value of digital assets comes from real utility." He specifically noted that STRC's stock price has fallen to a discount of approximately 25% from its par value, which he described as a "strong vote of no confidence" in that financing structure. Against the backdrop of market pressure this week, Strategy's common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000.On the market front, a CryptoQuant report indicated that if the dividend structure continues, Strategy's cash buffer has decreased from over seven years to approximately 14 months, suggesting a pause in Bitcoin purchases and a rebuilding of reserve funds. Currently, STRC trading below $100 has also rendered its "issue tokens—buy Bitcoin" funding flywheel temporarily ineffective. However, Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes this model reflects more of a "decline in efficiency" rather than a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile, Ripple continues to adopt an industry-contrarian perspective, reiterating the distinct value path of its ecosystem asset XRP compared to Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
According to The Block, the U.S. May core PCE inflation data—coming in higher than expected at a 3.4% year-on-year increase, the highest since October 2023—further dampened market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $58,000 on Thursday, marking its lowest level since late 2024, and is currently trading sideways around $59,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days, with a single-day net redemption of $696 million on June 25. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw net outflows for six straight days, with $81.9 million flowing out on the same day. Analysts noted that Bitcoin’s dominance remains near 55%, indicating capital rotation toward high-quality assets rather than broad-based withdrawal. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin’s 4-year rolling realized price risk/reward ratio has yet to reach historical cycle lows, suggesting the asset may not have approached the bottom of this cycle.
according to monitoring by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, ETH whales have fallen into losses for the first time since 2019. Even during the 2022 bear market, the largest whales holding over 100,000 ETH managed to remain profitable. Currently, the unrealized profit ratios for all three whale groups are negative: -0.26 for the range of 1,000 to 10,000 ETH, -0.21 for 10,000 to 100,000 ETH, and -0.05 for addresses holding over 100,000 ETH. This situation has persisted for several weeks.Darkfost noted that, historically, when the ETH market tests the conviction of whales, it often simultaneously forms a bottoming zone. Ethereum has demonstrated considerable resilience so far.
CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that data shows the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Year-on-Year (YoY) indicator has continued to weaken since turning negative in mid-March, falling further from approximately -2.4% to -24% as of June 23. This means the current short-term holder realized price is about 24% lower than it was one year ago, reflecting a continued decline in the momentum of short-term holders’ cost basis and relatively weak speculative participation in the market.
on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant stated Strategy should stop buying Bitcoin and strengthen cash reserves.US stock market data shows Strategy's share price has fallen below the $90 mark, currently trading at $89.9, with its market cap approaching a drop below $2 billion.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Moreno 建议 Strategy 停止购买比特币并积累现金，以缓解优先股 STRC 跌至历史新低的压力。
According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, abnormal surges in trading volume in the Bitcoin market typically precede significant price re-pricings and serve as a key “footprint” signaling large-capital inflows. In the current cycle, the relative weight of spot trading volume has been diluted by ETFs and derivatives; while some institutional capital flows in via regulated channels, a sudden surge in spot volume still reflects genuine chip transfer, accumulation, or distribution activity. Derivatives trading volume has become the core mechanism driving volatility transmission. Its anomalies are often accompanied by liquidity sweeps and leverage resets, indicating that “smart money” is leveraging futures and perpetual contracts to position itself ahead of time. Analysts note that abnormal volume clustering occurred prior to multiple critical turning points between 2024 and 2026; when prices are compressed or uncertain, such abnormal volume expansion typically signals the imminent onset of a larger-scale directional move.
CryptoQuant analyst DarkFost stated that data shows long-term Bitcoin holders (“OGs”)—those holding BTC for over five years—exhibited significant movement and potential selling activity during this cycle. The 90-day moving average of Spent Transaction Output (STXO) reached cyclical peaks in May 2024, February 2025, and September 2025. The indicator has now declined to 962 BTC—the lowest level since November 2024—suggesting these investors are increasingly inclined to hold amid current price levels, thereby easing market sell-side pressure.