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Ethereum continues its weak trend after breaking below the key support level of $2,000. Market analysts warn that short-term "downside pressure" remains dominant, with traders focusing on the defense of the $1,800–$1,750 support zone. CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out that ETH's estimated leverage ratio remains relatively high at around 0.74, and the funding rate has been positive since April, indicating crowded long positions despite the persistent price weakness. The RSI is around 31, approaching oversold territory but without a clear reversal signal yet. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $695 million, with a single-day maximum outflow of about $121 million, reflecting a continued cooling in institutional allocation demand.Currently, ETH maintains a weak structure against the backdrop of high leverage, crowded longs, and persistent ETF outflows. The short-term risk is biased to the downside, making the $1,800 support level a key observation point for both market sentiment and technicals. (Cointelegrap)
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that the accumulation of Bitcoin holdings by whales and dolphins has stalled, reflecting persistently weak new demand and indicating that the current market structure resembles the bearish phase of 2022. According to the report, the year-on-year contraction rate of balances held by whales (those holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) is the fastest this year; while balances held by dolphins (those holding 100–1,000 BTC) remain year-on-year positive, they have fallen significantly below trend. Meanwhile, long-term holder supply has risen to 15.8 million BTC, whereas short-term holder supply has declined from 6.4 million BTC in December 2025 to approximately 4.2 million BTC.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a dangerous divergence: Binance taker buy volume has been declining continuously, hitting a multi-month low—indicating a clear weakening in active buying demand. At the same time, Binance’s funding rate has rebounded into positive territory, suggesting traders are adding long positions via leverage. Historically, rising funding rates alongside shrinking spot demand often signal the market’s entry into a late-stage speculative phase—leverage-driven rallies lacking support from underlying spot capital are structurally fragile. If buying pressure fails to recover meaningfully, the current rise in funding rates may reflect latent risk rather than underlying market strength.
According to data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost, Bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen 81% since October 2025.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
analysts from CryptoQuant have pointed out that, based on a comprehensive review of multiple miner indicators, Bitcoin miners have not yet exhibited behavioral characteristics that "confirm a market bottom," and are currently in a phase of waiting and cautious adjustment. Meanwhile, the Miner Position Index (MPI) remains in negative territory, indicating that current selling intensity is below historical averages. Miners are not in a panic-selling phase but are engaging in "passive selling" primarily to maintain cash flow, suggesting that the probability of an extreme short-term decline is relatively limited. Additionally, the Puell Multiple remains below 1, further indicating that miner revenues are at historically weak levels, and overall profitability is under pressure. However, the strong accumulation behavior typically seen at cycle bottoms has not yet appeared.The analysis suggests that miners are currently in a "waiting phase," having neither triggered a capitulation-style sell-off nor entered an active accumulation cycle. This resembles a typical transitional state before a market bottom forms. Overall, while selling pressure from miners has eased, on-chain structures still show short-term supply pressure exists. Bitcoin is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation pattern, and market sentiment is likely to remain cautious in the near term.
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom pointed out that BTC HODL Waves data suggests the bottom of this cycle may form in the range of $65,900 to $70,500.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated Bitcoin has recently attempted to breach the $82,000 level three times, but each time it has faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking advantage of the uptrend to continuously exit with profits, rather than continuing to hold positions. Currently, $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong supply zone.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
CryptoQuant analyst BorisD points out that Ethereum still faces obvious downside risks. The combination of rising exchange supply and continued ETF outflows could push prices down to around $1,700, representing a potential correction of about 20% from current levels. A breakout above $2,400 seems unlikely in the near term.Data shows that ETH reserves on exchanges like Binance have increased significantly recently, rising from approximately 3.36 million to 3.84 million between May 5 and May 9. This indicates more tokens are flowing into trading platforms, which is typically interpreted by the market as a signal of rising potential sell pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net capital outflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $190 million, indicating weakening institutional demand at the margin.In terms of price, although ETH has rebounded about 40% from its local low, it encountered strong resistance near $2,400 before falling back to the $2,260 level, limiting short-term upward momentum. The CryptoQuant analyst notes that as exchange inflows accelerate, the price has failed to sustain its upward trend and instead retreated, suggesting the market may be in a phase where "absorption and distribution coexist."Technically, ETH has broken below the lower trendline of an ascending wedge structure (around $2,280). If this breakdown is confirmed, the pattern's measured move target points to around $1,725, corresponding to a potential decline of approximately 22% and coinciding with the macro low area from early February. Some analysts further believe that if the larger bear flag pattern continues, ETH could face the risk of dipping to $1,280.Overall, market sentiment is generally cautious, with a consensus that the current rebound is more likely a temporary move within a distribution process rather than a trend reversal signal. The risk of short-term volatility remains elevated. (Cointelegraph)
According to Amr Taha, a CryptoQuant analyst, following the release of U.S. April CPI data—which came in higher than expected—Bitcoin derivatives markets witnessed synchronized risk reduction. Open interest across four major exchanges—Binance, Gate.io, Bybit, and OKX—collectively declined by approximately $1.25 billion. Gate.io saw the largest drop, at roughly $578 million; Binance followed with about $473 million; Bybit and OKX declined by approximately $123 million and $75 million, respectively. This synchronized contraction across multiple platforms indicates that the deleveraging was not an isolated incident confined to a single exchange, but rather a broad, market-wide defensive response to macroeconomic data. Analysts note that the decline in open interest may stem from long-position liquidations, short-covering, or proactive leverage reduction—and should not be interpreted in isolation as a definitive bearish signal. However, large-scale, synchronized open interest contraction triggered by macro catalysts typically signals that derivatives traders are rapidly adjusting their risk exposure.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on X platform that although the U.S.-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges to the market, the altcoin market has recently begun to show signs of recovery. After experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is not only affected by the BTC correction but is also related to market token dilution. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% on BNB Smart Chain. Recently, the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has recovered to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have reclaimed the 200-day moving average, compared to only 2% in February of this year that remained above this key technical level. Darkfost believes this indicates a gradual resurgence of market interest in altcoins, serving as an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, it is still too early to declare the start of an altcoin season, as market liquidity remains limited.
According to an analysis released by CryptoQuant-certified analyst MorenoDV_, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has just generated its first “Early Bull Market” signal since March 2023. Historically, when this indicator transitions from the bear market zone into the early bull market zone, it typically signals that the worst phase of correction is over and that market structure is beginning to recover—similar signals appeared after deep bear markets in early 2019 and early 2023, both of which preceded stronger upward trends. However, this signal should not be interpreted uncritically. In March 2022, the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, yet price subsequently faced rejection—indicating a local top rather than the start of a new bull market. Analysts note that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear-market asset, and the rebound in its 30-day moving average suggests improving underlying momentum. At the same time, however, multiple other market indicators are already showing signs of weakness, making this signal less clear-cut than classic early-cycle confirmations. The analyst leans toward interpreting this signal as more likely indicating a local top—unless strong price follow-through confirms the bullish thesis—rather than the onset of a new bull market.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.
a CryptoQuant analyst stated, "$93,000 is the key upside target for Bitcoin. CME gaps are not guarantees but signals. They represent areas where positioning, liquidity, and market psychology converge, making them key reference points for future price movements."
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.
Odaily, CryptoQuant.com posted on X platform, stating that BTC’s current pullback remains higher than the previous panic selling lows. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still shows a substantial difference from past cyclical lows.
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
according to data monitoring from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day on April 24, with a single-day inflow of $14.45 million. The total cumulative inflows during this continuous period amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow streak since September 2025. Last week, ETFs saw total inflows of $823.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording weekly inflows of $983 million, hitting a new high in nearly six months.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin market is driven by futures, with open interest continuing to rise. However, aside from ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases, on-chain apparent demand remains negative. The chief analyst at CEX.IO pointed out that the recent price increase has been notably driven by short squeezes. Since April 13, the total amount of short liquidations has reached approximately $2.8 billion, far exceeding the $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Part of the ETF demand may stem from basis trading strategies, specifically buying IBIT while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral and not purely bullish. Currently, the options market's 25-delta skew is in negative territory, indicating that investors are paying a premium to seek downside protection.