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According to a report released by CryptoQuant analyst maartunn, Binance's monthly futures trading volume has climbed to $1.6 trillion, the highest level this year. Despite the current Bitcoin price still hovering in the mid-$60,000 range, generally cautious market sentiment, and multiple headwinds such as the European MiCA regulatory adjustment period and the summer trading off-season, momentum in Binance derivatives trading has not subsided, indicating that traders are still actively establishing futures positions.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis report. According to his Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model, the current buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is cooling down slightly, but buying power remains dominant.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that since October 2025, the market value of holdings of Bitcoin treasury companies has declined from $396 billion to $272 billion, a cumulative drop of over $100 billion. Data shows that although these companies' Bitcoin holdings increased from 953,000 to the current 1.14 million, most of the Bitcoin reserves were accumulated at high prices. November 2024 to October 2025 was the most aggressive buying phase for corporate treasury companies, when Bitcoin prices were mainly in the $75,000 to $125,000 range. Currently, the pace of accumulation has nearly stalled. Whether these enterprises will follow Strategy's example and choose to sell holdings at low levels remains to be seen.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current market's unrealized profit proportion is 65.8%, below the historical average of 81%, while the unrealized loss proportion is approximately 34.2%, indicating that the overall market remains dominated by profitable holdings.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin short-term holders' realized pressure model has once again shifted to a buyer-dominated stance at a low point, mirroring the rebound pattern following the correction in February. The current buyer pressure score is approximately 30%, higher than the seller pressure of 22%. Seller pressure has compressed to a multi-month low, with coins transferring from short-term holders to stronger buyers, consistent with the characteristics of an accumulation phase.Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,900, near the lower bound of the short-term holder cost basis range around $61,600. This is about 4% higher than the latest buyer cost basis and nearly 10% lower than the comprehensive cost basis of $71,000. Adler Jr. pointed out that as long as the $61,600 lower boundary holds, the demand structure remains intact; if this level is lost, the newest holders will also fall into losses.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that currently about 40% of altcoin prices are in a range close to historical lows, reflecting that a large number of token issuance projects are facing significant pressure. His statistical criterion is: prices below 25% of their historical highs. When Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in late June, this ratio once rose to 45%.
According to analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently at 0.158, its 100-day Exponential Moving Average is 0.215, and the 30-day Exponential Moving Average is 0.155. On June 2, the 30-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero line.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that data shows over the past 30 days, the market caps of USDC and USDT decreased by 3.6% and 2% respectively, reflecting continued weakening in overall crypto market liquidity. Since November 2025, this slowing trend has become relatively apparent.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that data shows the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has once again fallen into extreme negative territory, briefly dropping below -20. Although it has since recovered slightly, historically this level typically corresponds to extreme market pessimism towards Bitcoin.
Odaily reports, according to DefiLlama data, Binance saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion in the week starting June 29, a 207% increase from approximately $400 million the previous week. The total monthly net outflow stands at about $3.2 billion. CryptoQuant indicates that Binance's single-day ETH withdrawal transactions exceeded 166,000, marking the highest level in over three years. Over the same period, ETH rose approximately 12.5% in the past seven days, trading at $1,766 at press time; BTC gained 4.3% in the same period, trading at $62,925 at press time.DefiLlama data shows that Bitfinex recorded an outflow of $407.5 million over the past week, Gate saw $214.3 million in outflows, OKX had $87.1 million, and Bybit saw $78.4 million. Meanwhile, Crypto.com and HashKey Exchange posted net inflows of approximately $63 million and $53.3 million, respectively, while KuCoin, Gemini, and Bitvavo recorded net inflows of $22.1 million, $17.4 million, and $15.8 million. (Cointelegraph).
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform, stating that the current total market capitalization of Memecoins as a proportion of the total market capitalization of Altcoins has fallen to 3.7%, the lowest level since February 2024. Data shows that during the Memecoin craze in November 2024, this proportion once exceeded 10%; it has now fallen back to 3.7%, indicating that the Memecoin sector's share of the altcoin market has significantly declined.
CryptoQuant has indicated that the amount of Bitcoin deposited into centralized exchanges last week rose to nearly 50,000 BTC per day, marking the fourth time this year it has reached that level. The report states that this increase coincides with Bitcoin testing the key support level of $60,000. If it breaks below this level, Bitcoin could move toward the realized price of $53,000. During the same period, the average Bitcoin deposit size roughly doubled from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, with CryptoQuant attributing this growth to whales and institutions rather than retail investors. Ethereum's daily inflow peaked at 1.25 million ETH, and the number of deposit transactions for other altcoins also rose to over 45,000 per day. Bitcoin is up 3.5% this week, trading at $62,886, more than 50% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October; Ethereum is up nearly 12% this week, trading at $1,787, approximately 64% below its all-time high of $4,946. (Decrypt).
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has exhibited a clear "diminishing capital efficiency" characteristic across its historical bull and bear cycles. As the asset's scale expands, the price increase generated per unit of new capital continues to decline:In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove Bitcoin up by roughly 55,000%;In the 2015 cycle, approximately $69 billion corresponded to a roughly 10,000% gain;In the 2018 cycle, approximately $365 billion corresponded to a roughly 2,000% gain;In the current cycle starting from 2022, approximately $697 billion in capital has been attracted, but the gain is about 689%.The data is based on "Realized Capitalization," which values coins based on their price at their last movement, serving as an approximate measure of actual capital inflows. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin to experience another parabolic rally, it may require over $1 trillion in new capital inflows, further solidifying its status as a macro asset rather than just an ETF-driven trading asset.Ki Young Ju also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net capital outflows, indicating that market structural demand is still in a transitional phase. Analysis suggests this trend reflects the natural decline in Bitcoin's marginal returns as its market capitalization expands. Unless larger-scale institutional capital steps in, achieving the high-multiple growth seen in earlier cycles will be difficult. (CoinDesk)
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler posted on platform X, stating that Bitcoin has begun to enter the later stage of the bear market cycle, with the ETF sector releasing its first signal of easing pressure. In the latest trading session, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $223 million, with the majority of funds flowing into Fidelity's FBTC ($166 million) and ARK Invest's ARKB ($91.8 million).
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant reports that the volume of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins flowing into exchanges has recently increased significantly. Historically, this pattern often signals that the crypto market is about to enter a phase of higher volatility.Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that on June 30, the number of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges approached 49,000 BTC, an extremely rare level. This year, there have only been four other instances of single-day inflow peaks nearing 50,000 BTC, and these peaks have typically been followed by a notable amplification in price volatility and clear directional moves.The report suggests that, given the current scale of inflows, the market is absorbing a large amount of Bitcoin being transferred to exchanges. Since transferring to exchanges usually implies potential selling pressure, position adjustments, or increased demand for derivatives margin, this could trigger more drastic price fluctuations.CryptoQuant also notes that the volume of Ethereum and altcoins flowing into exchanges is rising, indicating that the pressure is not limited to Bitcoin but is spreading across the broader crypto asset market. Overall, a surge in exchange inflows may signal that a more significant change in short-term market direction is imminent.
CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech stated that data shows the altcoin market, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, continues to be under pressure. The cumulative buy-sell volume difference for altcoins in June has touched an extreme low not seen in nearly five years and is currently probing further lower, reflecting that the spot market remains dominated by continuous net selling. Since retreating from the highs in early 2025, selling pressure has not eased significantly, and the market has not yet shown clear signs of stabilization.
According to on-chain analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) based on CryptoQuant data monitoring, since June 29 (Monday), a total of 113,483.30 BTC (approximately $6.97 billion) have been transferred on-chain. All transferred coins have a coin age exceeding 3 months, of which 22,921.26 BTC (approximately $1.41 billion) came from long-term addresses holding for over 2 years.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the view "the market bottom has formed (the bottom is in)" is continuously emerging in the community, but many people overlook the true meaning of "bottom". From a technical perspective, a bottom usually refers to the lowest point reached during the trend reversal process, specifically the position of the deepest lower shadow on the K-line (even on extremely short timeframes) in extreme cases.