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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin has been oscillating around the key support level of $60,000 for nearly 165 days, failing to hold firm and reignite upward momentum. One core reason is the market's lack of new liquidity. Over the past 30 days, the net outflow of stablecoin reserves from Binance and Bybit has approached $2.3 billion. New demand, whether flowing into Bitcoin or the entire crypto market, remains weak. Since the beginning of this year, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have continued to decline. This rather pessimistic market sentiment continues to restrict the funding support needed for Bitcoin to break out of its current consolidation range.However, as regulatory measures like the GENIUS Act require stablecoins to improve compliance, the decentralized nature of the stablecoin ecosystem may be weakened. In the long term, Bitcoin's decentralized characteristics could thereby become more prominent.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that data indicates Bitcoin is currently establishing a significant support level within the $59,000 to $70,000 range, which has become one of the most fiercely defended price zones in Bitcoin's history.Approximately 50% of the total Bitcoin supply has now been turned over above the $59,000 mark. If the millions of Bitcoins believed to be permanently lost are excluded, this percentage would be even higher. This round of turnover is primarily driven by short-term holders (STH), revealing a divergence in market participant behavior, with some investors choosing to panic sell while others continue to accumulate.However, although multiple indicators have entered extremely bearish or oversold zones, the formation of the $59,000 to $70,000 range has some rationale. This does not necessarily mean the market has confirmed a bottom. More accurately, Bitcoin's bottom structure is still in the process of being built. Additionally, the large trading volume peak near $84,500 is mainly attributed to internal Bitcoin transfers on Coinbase and should not be included in market behavior analysis.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin miners are currently facing severe operational pressure, with their financial health indicators dropping to levels seen during historical bear market high-pressure phases. Analyzing multiple data dimensions including miner issuance revenue, block time, transaction fees, and overall revenue, the Miner Financial Health Ratio (7-day average) is currently fluctuating within the 10% to 30% range, reflecting significant pressure on mining enterprises' profitability, as similar low levels typically only appear near peak bear market periods.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), citing CryptoQuant data, Strategy has paused BTC purchases, and demand on the ETF side has also shown no signs of recovery—after ending eight consecutive weeks of net capital outflows, net flows turned negative again this week, wiping out all capital inflows from last week, while large institutional buying pressure continues to decline.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, the current BTC exchange leverage ratio has breached the top 5% range of historical extremes, far exceeding the historical average, while exchange stablecoin reserves continue to shrink, spot liquidity is severely insufficient, and the scale of borrowed margin has significantly surpassed the spot buy orders that can be absorbed. The analyst noted that this rally is built on borrowed margin lacking underlying support, the market structure is extremely fragile, and deleveraging events are not a matter of probability, but a mathematical inevitability of mean reversion. Once market makers trigger liquidation, prices will face severe downward shock. Investors are advised to reduce leverage exposure, protect spot positions, and consider opening new positions only after leverage indicators decline.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post on X that since Bitcoin reached its all-time high in October 2025, the cumulative net selling pressure on Meme coins listed on Binance has exceeded $1 billion, with a cumulative net trading volume reaching -$1.21 billion.Darkfost noted that this reflects significant selling pressure on high-risk assets within the cryptocurrency market, also indicating that the Meme coin sector has been notably impacted during the market correction. He also reminded investors that this sector carries a higher risk of capital loss.
According to a report released by CryptoQuant analyst maartunn, Binance's monthly futures trading volume has climbed to $1.6 trillion, the highest level this year. Despite the current Bitcoin price still hovering in the mid-$60,000 range, generally cautious market sentiment, and multiple headwinds such as the European MiCA regulatory adjustment period and the summer trading off-season, momentum in Binance derivatives trading has not subsided, indicating that traders are still actively establishing futures positions.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis report. According to his Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model, the current buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is cooling down slightly, but buying power remains dominant.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that since October 2025, the market value of holdings of Bitcoin treasury companies has declined from $396 billion to $272 billion, a cumulative drop of over $100 billion. Data shows that although these companies' Bitcoin holdings increased from 953,000 to the current 1.14 million, most of the Bitcoin reserves were accumulated at high prices. November 2024 to October 2025 was the most aggressive buying phase for corporate treasury companies, when Bitcoin prices were mainly in the $75,000 to $125,000 range. Currently, the pace of accumulation has nearly stalled. Whether these enterprises will follow Strategy's example and choose to sell holdings at low levels remains to be seen.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current market's unrealized profit proportion is 65.8%, below the historical average of 81%, while the unrealized loss proportion is approximately 34.2%, indicating that the overall market remains dominated by profitable holdings.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin short-term holders' realized pressure model has once again shifted to a buyer-dominated stance at a low point, mirroring the rebound pattern following the correction in February. The current buyer pressure score is approximately 30%, higher than the seller pressure of 22%. Seller pressure has compressed to a multi-month low, with coins transferring from short-term holders to stronger buyers, consistent with the characteristics of an accumulation phase.Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,900, near the lower bound of the short-term holder cost basis range around $61,600. This is about 4% higher than the latest buyer cost basis and nearly 10% lower than the comprehensive cost basis of $71,000. Adler Jr. pointed out that as long as the $61,600 lower boundary holds, the demand structure remains intact; if this level is lost, the newest holders will also fall into losses.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that currently about 40% of altcoin prices are in a range close to historical lows, reflecting that a large number of token issuance projects are facing significant pressure. His statistical criterion is: prices below 25% of their historical highs. When Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in late June, this ratio once rose to 45%.
According to analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently at 0.158, its 100-day Exponential Moving Average is 0.215, and the 30-day Exponential Moving Average is 0.155. On June 2, the 30-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero line.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that data shows over the past 30 days, the market caps of USDC and USDT decreased by 3.6% and 2% respectively, reflecting continued weakening in overall crypto market liquidity. Since November 2025, this slowing trend has become relatively apparent.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that data shows the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has once again fallen into extreme negative territory, briefly dropping below -20. Although it has since recovered slightly, historically this level typically corresponds to extreme market pessimism towards Bitcoin.
Odaily reports, according to DefiLlama data, Binance saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion in the week starting June 29, a 207% increase from approximately $400 million the previous week. The total monthly net outflow stands at about $3.2 billion. CryptoQuant indicates that Binance's single-day ETH withdrawal transactions exceeded 166,000, marking the highest level in over three years. Over the same period, ETH rose approximately 12.5% in the past seven days, trading at $1,766 at press time; BTC gained 4.3% in the same period, trading at $62,925 at press time.DefiLlama data shows that Bitfinex recorded an outflow of $407.5 million over the past week, Gate saw $214.3 million in outflows, OKX had $87.1 million, and Bybit saw $78.4 million. Meanwhile, Crypto.com and HashKey Exchange posted net inflows of approximately $63 million and $53.3 million, respectively, while KuCoin, Gemini, and Bitvavo recorded net inflows of $22.1 million, $17.4 million, and $15.8 million. (Cointelegraph).
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform, stating that the current total market capitalization of Memecoins as a proportion of the total market capitalization of Altcoins has fallen to 3.7%, the lowest level since February 2024. Data shows that during the Memecoin craze in November 2024, this proportion once exceeded 10%; it has now fallen back to 3.7%, indicating that the Memecoin sector's share of the altcoin market has significantly declined.
CryptoQuant has indicated that the amount of Bitcoin deposited into centralized exchanges last week rose to nearly 50,000 BTC per day, marking the fourth time this year it has reached that level. The report states that this increase coincides with Bitcoin testing the key support level of $60,000. If it breaks below this level, Bitcoin could move toward the realized price of $53,000. During the same period, the average Bitcoin deposit size roughly doubled from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, with CryptoQuant attributing this growth to whales and institutions rather than retail investors. Ethereum's daily inflow peaked at 1.25 million ETH, and the number of deposit transactions for other altcoins also rose to over 45,000 per day. Bitcoin is up 3.5% this week, trading at $62,886, more than 50% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October; Ethereum is up nearly 12% this week, trading at $1,787, approximately 64% below its all-time high of $4,946. (Decrypt).
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.