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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated Bitcoin has recently attempted to breach the $82,000 level three times, but each time it has faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking advantage of the uptrend to continuously exit with profits, rather than continuing to hold positions. Currently, $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong supply zone.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
CryptoQuant analyst BorisD points out that Ethereum still faces obvious downside risks. The combination of rising exchange supply and continued ETF outflows could push prices down to around $1,700, representing a potential correction of about 20% from current levels. A breakout above $2,400 seems unlikely in the near term.Data shows that ETH reserves on exchanges like Binance have increased significantly recently, rising from approximately 3.36 million to 3.84 million between May 5 and May 9. This indicates more tokens are flowing into trading platforms, which is typically interpreted by the market as a signal of rising potential sell pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net capital outflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $190 million, indicating weakening institutional demand at the margin.In terms of price, although ETH has rebounded about 40% from its local low, it encountered strong resistance near $2,400 before falling back to the $2,260 level, limiting short-term upward momentum. The CryptoQuant analyst notes that as exchange inflows accelerate, the price has failed to sustain its upward trend and instead retreated, suggesting the market may be in a phase where "absorption and distribution coexist."Technically, ETH has broken below the lower trendline of an ascending wedge structure (around $2,280). If this breakdown is confirmed, the pattern's measured move target points to around $1,725, corresponding to a potential decline of approximately 22% and coinciding with the macro low area from early February. Some analysts further believe that if the larger bear flag pattern continues, ETH could face the risk of dipping to $1,280.Overall, market sentiment is generally cautious, with a consensus that the current rebound is more likely a temporary move within a distribution process rather than a trend reversal signal. The risk of short-term volatility remains elevated. (Cointelegraph)
According to Amr Taha, a CryptoQuant analyst, following the release of U.S. April CPI data—which came in higher than expected—Bitcoin derivatives markets witnessed synchronized risk reduction. Open interest across four major exchanges—Binance, Gate.io, Bybit, and OKX—collectively declined by approximately $1.25 billion. Gate.io saw the largest drop, at roughly $578 million; Binance followed with about $473 million; Bybit and OKX declined by approximately $123 million and $75 million, respectively. This synchronized contraction across multiple platforms indicates that the deleveraging was not an isolated incident confined to a single exchange, but rather a broad, market-wide defensive response to macroeconomic data. Analysts note that the decline in open interest may stem from long-position liquidations, short-covering, or proactive leverage reduction—and should not be interpreted in isolation as a definitive bearish signal. However, large-scale, synchronized open interest contraction triggered by macro catalysts typically signals that derivatives traders are rapidly adjusting their risk exposure.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on X platform that although the U.S.-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges to the market, the altcoin market has recently begun to show signs of recovery. After experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is not only affected by the BTC correction but is also related to market token dilution. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% on BNB Smart Chain. Recently, the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has recovered to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have reclaimed the 200-day moving average, compared to only 2% in February of this year that remained above this key technical level. Darkfost believes this indicates a gradual resurgence of market interest in altcoins, serving as an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, it is still too early to declare the start of an altcoin season, as market liquidity remains limited.
According to an analysis released by CryptoQuant-certified analyst MorenoDV_, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has just generated its first “Early Bull Market” signal since March 2023. Historically, when this indicator transitions from the bear market zone into the early bull market zone, it typically signals that the worst phase of correction is over and that market structure is beginning to recover—similar signals appeared after deep bear markets in early 2019 and early 2023, both of which preceded stronger upward trends. However, this signal should not be interpreted uncritically. In March 2022, the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, yet price subsequently faced rejection—indicating a local top rather than the start of a new bull market. Analysts note that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear-market asset, and the rebound in its 30-day moving average suggests improving underlying momentum. At the same time, however, multiple other market indicators are already showing signs of weakness, making this signal less clear-cut than classic early-cycle confirmations. The analyst leans toward interpreting this signal as more likely indicating a local top—unless strong price follow-through confirms the bullish thesis—rather than the onset of a new bull market.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.
a CryptoQuant analyst stated, "$93,000 is the key upside target for Bitcoin. CME gaps are not guarantees but signals. They represent areas where positioning, liquidity, and market psychology converge, making them key reference points for future price movements."
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.
Odaily, CryptoQuant.com posted on X platform, stating that BTC’s current pullback remains higher than the previous panic selling lows. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still shows a substantial difference from past cyclical lows.
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
according to data monitoring from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day on April 24, with a single-day inflow of $14.45 million. The total cumulative inflows during this continuous period amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow streak since September 2025. Last week, ETFs saw total inflows of $823.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording weekly inflows of $983 million, hitting a new high in nearly six months.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin market is driven by futures, with open interest continuing to rise. However, aside from ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases, on-chain apparent demand remains negative. The chief analyst at CEX.IO pointed out that the recent price increase has been notably driven by short squeezes. Since April 13, the total amount of short liquidations has reached approximately $2.8 billion, far exceeding the $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Part of the ETF demand may stem from basis trading strategies, specifically buying IBIT while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral and not purely bullish. Currently, the options market's 25-delta skew is in negative territory, indicating that investors are paying a premium to seek downside protection.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin’s current price movement is primarily driven by the futures market. Although open interest continues to rise—and ETF inflows and Michael Saylor’s ongoing purchases persist—on-chain apparent demand remains net negative. Ki Young Ju also noted that, historically, bear markets typically end when spot demand and futures demand recover simultaneously.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that, following the market pressure release in spring, selling pressure from short-term holders (STH) has significantly eased. The Bitcoin market’s recovery remains ongoing, with the current price approaching the STH cost basis. The key catalyst for the next leg of price movement lies in whether Bitcoin can sustainably hold above the ~$83,000 STH cost level. Only a confirmed breakout and stabilization above this level will allow the market to further validate the actual selling pressure from short-term holders—and determine whether such pressure will re-emerge to suppress prices again.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently testing a significant historical pivot zone, having declined into the 0.2–0.3 range—indicating that BTC is in one of its historically deepest undervaluation zones. The BCMI comprises MVRV (30% weight), NUPL (25% weight), SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index. This correction has reset both realized value and investor sentiment to levels not seen since early 2023. He also notes that the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains in a downtrend; confirmation of selling pressure exhaustion and price stabilization will require the SMA’s slope to flatten.
According to Cointelegraph, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies collectively sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026—exceeding their total sales for all of 2025 and setting a new quarterly record. Data from TheMinerMag indicates that the relevant companies include MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer. The report also notes that the current miner hash price stands at approximately $33 per PH/s per day—below the breakeven level of roughly $35 per PH/s per day for some mining firms. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin miners’ reserves have declined from over 1.86 million BTC in 2023 to approximately 1.8 million BTC.
Odaily News According to a CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin is facing "short-term selling pressure" after rebounding above $76,000. Data shows that during Tuesday's price increase, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges surged significantly, with hourly inflows once rising to 11,000 BTC, the highest level since December last year.CryptoQuant pointed out that the increase in the scale and speed of exchange inflows has historically been seen as a key early warning signal for short-term selling pressure, indicating that some holders are transferring assets to exchanges in preparation for selling. Meanwhile, the average single deposit size rose to 2.25 BTC, hitting a new high since July 2024 and approaching levels seen before the market peaked in January this year.In terms of price action, TradingView data shows that Bitcoin on Coinbase once touched $76,052, reaching a new high since early February. However, the report suggests that as the price approaches the realized price of $76,800, this level could become a ceiling for the rebound, as investors near their break-even point may be inclined to sell, thereby limiting further upside.Furthermore, the current profit-taking is still in its early stages, with daily realized profits around $500 million, which is below the $1 billion threshold typically associated with interim tops. If the price rises further into the $76,000 to $76,800 range, the scale of profits could expand, thereby intensifying selling pressure and increasing the probability of a pullback or consolidation. (Cointelegraph)
CryptoQuant stated that as Bitcoin surged above $76,000, a large volume of BTC is flowing into cryptocurrency exchanges, indicating “short-term selling pressure” in the market. Data shows the hourly inflow to exchanges spiked to 11,000 BTC—the highest level since December last year—while the average deposit size rose to 2.25 BTC, the largest since July 2024. CryptoQuant noted that the realized price near $76,800 could act as a resistance level for this rally, as traders nearing their break-even points may have stronger incentives to sell.
Odaily News CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing increasing risks of selling pressure, with on-chain data showing a significant rise in funds flowing into exchanges.Bitcoin previously broke through $76,000 but faced downward pressure and retreated when approaching the key resistance zone around $76,800. This level corresponds to the "on-chain realized price" range, which has historically often acted as a top for rallies, as many investors whose holdings are nearing breakeven tend to sell.Data shows that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has risen to approximately 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late 2025, which is typically viewed as a potential signal of selling pressure. Simultaneously, the scale of transfers into exchanges by large holders (whales) is also expanding.Analysis suggests that if this resistance level remains effective, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure, with a key support level around $67,600.