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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the cryptocurrency market has recently entered a short-term correction phase, with the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin (Total2) shrinking by over $110 billion within three days; Ethereum (ETH) alone fell by 11%, erasing more than $38 billion in market value. Despite the price pullback, investors continue to accumulate and withdraw Ethereum. During this period, ETH reserves on Binance dropped from 3.57 million coins to 3.47 million coins, reaching a six-month low—a decrease of nearly 11.5% compared to the 3.92 million coins held in August. Meanwhile, withdrawal activity on the Binance platform surged significantly, with over 320,000 ETH withdrawal transactions recorded on October 6 alone, setting a new all-time high.
CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D stated in a post that BTC's average drawdown during bull market cycles can serve as a reference for the current price correction. Data shows that the average drawdown across the prior five bull market cycles was 14.39%, while the drawdown for the 2022-2025 cycle was relatively modest, at approximately 7.58%.
Odaily reports: CryptoQuant posted on X platform that Bitcoin miners have recently stopped large-scale selling. Since Bitcoin hit a low of $76,000 on August 21 and miner status shifted from "extremely underpaid" to "fairly paid," no extreme miner fund outflows have occurred.CryptoQuant stated that miner selling pressure was once a significant supply source continuously affecting Bitcoin's price during the 2026 bear market, and the current disappearance of this steady selling pressure may help alleviate market supply pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that after excluding Bitcoin (BTC) that has not moved in over 10 years, the proportion of the BTC supply in a profitable state has remained around 60% since August. The analysis notes that from a medium- to long-term perspective, most BTC in the market has returned to a profitable state and is far from overheated levels. Consolidation around this level is therefore a reasonable development.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin dropped from $85,500 to $83,900 before making a slight recovery to $84,100. This decline was accompanied by dominance from active sell orders and the forced liquidation of long positions. Data shows that the Taker Order Pressure Oscillator fell to -4.9 before rebounding to -3.1, indicating easing active sell-side pressure while bearish dominance persisted. Meanwhile, the Liquidation Pressure Oscillator declined from -11 to -78, reflecting that long liquidations were in control. The analysis notes that if Bitcoin's price remains below $83,900 and both indicators stay significantly negative, the asset could face more persistent selling pressure risk.
According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant data shows that during the week ending September 27, Binance's Bitcoin net outflow reached 23,137 BTC, marking the highest level since June 2023. Since September 20, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have cumulatively decreased by nearly 40,000 BTC.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform stating that the ratio of Meme coin market cap to altcoin market cap has dropped to 0.027, with Meme coins' market cap share relative to altcoins falling to 3%.As altcoins continue to outperform Meme coins, the gap between the two has further widened. The increasing number of Meme coins has also further dispersed the available liquidity in this sector.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to limited liquidity inflows into the crypto market, the stablecoin market cap remains sluggish in its recovery. Since May this year, the stablecoin market cap has contracted by $14 billion, signaling notable capital outflows from the market. Although conditions have shown slight improvement since September, with the stablecoin market cap rising by roughly $4 billion and reclaiming around $270 billion, and signs of a trend reversal appearing to materialize, the overall rebound remains relatively weak. Further driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs will require substantially greater liquidity support from the market.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin's realized cap (Realized Cap) grew by 1.2% (approximately $12.8 billion), reaching $1.079 trillion on October 2. Compared to the 0.66% growth rate a month earlier, its growth pace has doubled.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr. 表示，受 9 月下旬价格反弹推动，比特币盈利供应比例一度触及 73.8%（创下 1 月以来新高），目前回调至 72%，仍处于约 76%的长期平均水平下方，表明市场尚未出现过热迹象。与此同时，比特币价格在 8.3 万美元附近维持震荡，其动能指标快慢线均已回落至零值水平。动能归零反映出前期上涨动能暂时停滞，但尚未确立下行反转走势。后续走势需重点关注动能指标是否跌破零轴进入负向区间，以及盈利供应比例能否进一步突破 76%以确认持续复苏趋势。
Odaily reports: CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently clearly dominated by futures trading, with the ratio of Binance spot-to-futures trading volume at approximately 0.12, meaning futures account for roughly 90% of trading volume. Meanwhile, Binance BTC open interest fell from $10.6 billion to $9.2 billion over the past week, but spot demand remains weak, preventing the ratio from improving.Darkfost noted that the current rally is primarily driven by the futures market, and spot buying remains the missing piece. If spot demand fails to follow through, this rally could become unstable.
According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin's adjusted LTH (Long-Term Holders) MVRV metric has exited the mild pressure zone, with the 6-month to 10-year holding cohort collectively returning to profitability. Analyst @_Crypto_glass noted that this is not a phase of deep or sustained losses, but rather a constructive recovery for this holder group, sending a positive signal for the current market cycle.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto posted on X platform that the adjusted long-term holder MVRV has recovered from a shallow stress zone to approximately 1.35, with the long-term holder group spanning 6-month to 10-year holding periods re-entering an overall profitable state.As of September 27, Bitcoin's price was approximately $84,500, while the long-term holder realized price was approximately $62,700, with the spot price sitting about 35% above their cost basis. This metric had fallen below 1.0 five times between June and August, and touched a 2026 low of approximately 0.94 on June 30.
CryptoQuant analyst nocoffeenobrain stated that crypto market sentiment has undergone a significant shift, with the Fear and Greed Index rapidly climbing from around 30 in August to the current 74. Meanwhile, BTC dominance has dropped to 53.8% and continues its downward trend. Historical data shows that when the sentiment index rises while Bitcoin's dominance remains flat or declines, market capital and momentum tend to flow into sectors outside of Bitcoin;
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is currently trading near $83,000, with exchange outflows reaching their fastest pace since October 2025. On-chain data shows that as of September 27, the average daily net outflow from exchanges over the past seven days totaled 16,100 Bitcoin, indicating a contraction in exchange supply.
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno posted that after the recent rally, Bitcoin's unrealized profit margin rose to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, profit-taking reached 25,700 BTC, the highest level since 2026. In his view, these are typically signals that upward market momentum is weakening and facing pullback risk.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the ratio of the adjusted MVRV's 30-day moving average to its 365-day moving average crossed above its 365-day moving average on August 20, marking Bitcoin's entry into an early bull phase when priced at $71,255. This phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose by 13%.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that despite Bitcoin’s price consistently climbing, demand recovery remains uneven. Spot demand is at negative 180,000 BTC, while futures demand remains at positive 54,000 BTC; average total demand has improved from negative 188,000 BTC to negative 126,000 BTC over several days. Institutional selling pressure has notably eased, and the Coinbase premium index briefly flashed positive signals. ETF demand has strengthened considerably compared to earlier this summer, with cumulative additions of approximately 70,000 BTC, and net demand since the start of 2026 has also rebounded to negative 17,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the 30-day average net flow on exchanges shows sustained capital outflows throughout September, indicating the broader market continues to lean toward accumulation.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted that as the Bitcoin market cap expands and institutional holdings increase, this bull cycle could deliver a 3- to 5-fold gain rather than a parabolic rally exceeding 10x as seen previously, with subsequent bear market declines likely to be relatively moderate. He pointed out that throughout this cycle, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has consistently remained above 1, meaning the broader holder base remains in profit without meaningful unrealized losses; meanwhile, the rising realized market value, early whales halting their distribution, and futures whales building substantial long positions near local bottoms all indicate that funding conditions are improving. He believes Bitcoin’s cyclical extremes are gradually narrowing, and as the market matures, it may further develop monetary attributes.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post that Bitcoin rose to approximately $85,700, about 6.4% above its 365-day moving average of $80,500, marking the first breach of the moving average since November 2025. Meanwhile, the Trend Pulse indicator concluded a nine-day neutral phase and resumed a bullish pattern.