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CryptoQuant is an on-chain data analysis platform that offers comprehensive data for crypto trading. It includes market data, on-chain data, and short/long-term indicators for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins, and ERC20 tokens.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Is Approaching Its Valuation Bottom Range, but Shrinking Demand Indicates the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Confirmed
CryptoQuant’s latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market cycle—only 9% above its realized price of $53,600—and is now approaching the historical bottom range of past bear markets from a valuation perspective.
Analyst: Bitcoin Records Net Losses for 22 Consecutive Days, Valuations Enter Historically Low Range
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
CryptoQuant: BTC’s MVRV has dropped to 1.1, approaching the historically low valuation range.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently at 1.1, approaching the historically significant low-valuation zone that has marked major market bottoms. If the price falls further to the $50,000 level, the MVRV could reach 1.0—the full low-valuation threshold. Historical data shows this level appeared at the bottom of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each time serving as the starting point for strong medium- to long-term rebounds.
South Korea’s virtual asset trading volume has dropped to approximately 8% of the KOSPI, and the Bitcoin South Korean premium remains negative.
According to Digital Asset, domestic virtual asset trading volume in South Korea has fallen to approximately 8% of KOSPI trading volume—less than one-tenth. Media statistics show that, as of May 26, the ratio of trading volume on Korean won-based exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax) to KOSPI trading volume stood at just 8%. The report notes that South Korea’s virtual asset market has been weakening continuously since the second half of 2025; it declined sharply following a large-scale futures liquidation event in October 2025, while the KOSPI strengthened amid a semiconductor upcycle and supportive government policies. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Korea Premium indicator has been negative for most of the time since March, reflecting weak buying demand in the Korean market.
Analysis: Bitcoin Holds at $77,000 Range, Powell's "Final FOMC" Adds Market Uncertainty
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Whale Selling Has Ended, Triggering a $65,700 Rebound
CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that BTC whale selling has ended: total whale holdings turned upward on June 14 after declining for 12 consecutive days, and the price rebounded to $65,704.89. Data shows that the Coin Days Destroyed inflow dropped from 2.16 million to just 33,000—nearly zero—indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders.
analysts: Bitcoin Enters a Phase of Recovery and Selling Pressure Coexisting, SpaceX IPO Stirs the Market
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that this week, the market was significantly impacted by SpaceX's massive IPO, drawing risk concerns across asset classes. Although the overall risk appetite indicator remains in a deviation zone, it has provided some relief in terms of market sentiment. For Bitcoin, this week marks a recovery phase from the low of $60,000. However, structural selling pressure persists. Data shows a weekly net outflow of about 20,900 BTC from exchanges, indicating that the ongoing selling pressure has not fully eased. The short-term rebound is primarily driven by short covering, as accumulated short positions over the past month are being liquidated intensively, forming periodic price support. Additionally, pressure on miners has begun to emerge. The overall risk appetite has not yet clearly turned positive, and the market is in a transitional state of "repair and deleveraging coexisting."
CryptoQuant Analyst: Temporary Shift Toward Neutral Global Risk Appetite, Coupled with SpaceX IPO, Eases Market Sentiment
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
Bitcoin Market Faces Structural Pressure: BTC Flows into Exchanges, Stablecoin Outflows Weaken Rebound Momentum
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin’s on-chain profit-taking supply ratio approaches the critical 45% threshold, signaling a potential deep market reset
According to a post by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Percent of Supply in Profit” indicator is approaching the critical 45% threshold. Historical data shows this level typically coincides with periods of intense market stress and heightened risk of mass capitulation—contrasting sharply with bull market peaks, where the indicator often exceeds 90%. Current figures indicate that a large portion of Bitcoin holdings have shifted from profitable to unprofitable positions, signaling a deep reset in market expectations rather than a state of euphoria. From an on-chain perspective, profit compression often drives a transfer of coins from weak hands to long-term holders. This may intensify short-term volatility, but historically, such redistribution processes have contributed to healthier market structure—and longer-term opportunities may now be emerging.
Bitcoin Whales Dominate Buying at $60,000 Range, Account for 61.6% of Purchase Activity
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin whales dominated buying at the $60,000 to $61,000 range, accounting for 61.6% of purchase activity in this range.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Is Approaching Its Valuation Bottom Range, but Shrinking Demand Indicates the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Confirmed
CryptoQuant’s latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market cycle—only 9% above its realized price of $53,600—and is now approaching the historical bottom range of past bear markets from a valuation perspective.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Has Entered a Risk-Off Phase, ETF Demand Momentum Far Below Last Year's Peak
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Faces Strong Resistance Zone at $82,000; Short-Term Holders Continue Exiting
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
Darkfost: Altcoins Show Signs of Recovery, But It's Still Too Early to Call an Altcoin Season
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on X platform that although the U.S.-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges to the market, the altcoin market has recently begun to show signs of recovery. After experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is not only affected by the BTC correction but is also related to market token dilution. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% on BNB Smart Chain. Recently, the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has recovered to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have reclaimed the 200-day moving average, compared to only 2% in February of this year that remained above this key technical level. Darkfost believes this indicates a gradual resurgence of market interest in altcoins, serving as an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, it is still too early to declare the start of an altcoin season, as market liquidity remains limited.
Analysis: The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since March 2023, potentially signaling a local top rather than the start of a new bull market.
According to an analysis released by CryptoQuant-certified analyst MorenoDV_, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has just generated its first “Early Bull Market” signal since March 2023. Historically, when this indicator transitions from the bear market zone into the early bull market zone, it typically signals that the worst phase of correction is over and that market structure is beginning to recover—similar signals appeared after deep bear markets in early 2019 and early 2023, both of which preceded stronger upward trends. However, this signal should not be interpreted uncritically. In March 2022, the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, yet price subsequently faced rejection—indicating a local top rather than the start of a new bull market. Analysts note that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear-market asset, and the rebound in its 30-day moving average suggests improving underlying momentum. At the same time, however, multiple other market indicators are already showing signs of weakness, making this signal less clear-cut than classic early-cycle confirmations. The analyst leans toward interpreting this signal as more likely indicating a local top—unless strong price follow-through confirms the bullish thesis—rather than the onset of a new bull market.
CryptoQuant: BTC is still in a bear market rally at this stage; profit-taking may further intensify.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
Related news
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Whale Selling Has Ended, Triggering a $65,700 Rebound
CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that BTC whale selling has ended: total whale holdings turned upward on June 14 after declining for 12 consecutive days, and the price rebounded to $65,704.89. Data shows that the Coin Days Destroyed inflow dropped from 2.16 million to just 33,000—nearly zero—indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders.
analysts: Bitcoin Enters a Phase of Recovery and Selling Pressure Coexisting, SpaceX IPO Stirs the Market
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that this week, the market was significantly impacted by SpaceX's massive IPO, drawing risk concerns across asset classes. Although the overall risk appetite indicator remains in a deviation zone, it has provided some relief in terms of market sentiment. For Bitcoin, this week marks a recovery phase from the low of $60,000. However, structural selling pressure persists. Data shows a weekly net outflow of about 20,900 BTC from exchanges, indicating that the ongoing selling pressure has not fully eased. The short-term rebound is primarily driven by short covering, as accumulated short positions over the past month are being liquidated intensively, forming periodic price support. Additionally, pressure on miners has begun to emerge. The overall risk appetite has not yet clearly turned positive, and the market is in a transitional state of "repair and deleveraging coexisting."
CryptoQuant Analyst: Temporary Shift Toward Neutral Global Risk Appetite, Coupled with SpaceX IPO, Eases Market Sentiment
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
Bitcoin Market Faces Structural Pressure: BTC Flows into Exchanges, Stablecoin Outflows Weaken Rebound Momentum
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Is Approaching Its Valuation Bottom Range, but Shrinking Demand Indicates the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Confirmed
CryptoQuant’s latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market cycle—only 9% above its realized price of $53,600—and is now approaching the historical bottom range of past bear markets from a valuation perspective.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin bottom may be around $53,600, demand remains notably weak
CryptoQuant indicates Bitcoin may form a bottom around the $53,600 level, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin—the average on-chain cost basis for all market participants.The report notes that in previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin typically bottoms at or slightly below its realized price. Recently, Bitcoin fell to a new bear market low of around $59,000, only about 9% above the $53,600 realized price, before recovering to approximately $62,150.However, CryptoQuant emphasizes that the Bitcoin demand environment remains "extremely unfavorable," and a true bull market recovery requires a significant rebound in demand, a condition that on-chain data has not yet shown to materialize.