News Heat Trend
Project Overview
CryptoQuant is an on-chain data analysis platform that offers comprehensive data for crypto trading. It includes market data, on-chain data, and short/long-term indicators for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins, and ERC20 tokens.
Analysis: US Treasury Yields Rise to Highs, Four Major Risk Factors Weighing on Bitcoin Rebound
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out in a weekly report analysis that the US 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, raising financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.
Analyst: Current active BTC investors under 20% loss on average, cyclical adjustment still ongoing
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
Ripple CEO remains bullish on Bitcoin but criticizes Strategy's approach as "harming the crypto market"
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a recent CNBC interview that he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, while strongly criticizing Michael Saylor and his strategy of continuously purchasing Bitcoin by financing through preferred stock, arguing that this "financial engineering" approach is negatively impacting the crypto market.Garlinghouse pointed out that Strategy's reliance on issuing preferred stock (such as STRC) to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases essentially acts as a distraction in the market rather than creating long-term value. He emphasized: "Financial engineering does not create long-term value; the long-term value of digital assets comes from real utility." He specifically noted that STRC's stock price has fallen to a discount of approximately 25% from its par value, which he described as a "strong vote of no confidence" in that financing structure. Against the backdrop of market pressure this week, Strategy's common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000.On the market front, a CryptoQuant report indicated that if the dividend structure continues, Strategy's cash buffer has decreased from over seven years to approximately 14 months, suggesting a pause in Bitcoin purchases and a rebuilding of reserve funds. Currently, STRC trading below $100 has also rendered its "issue tokens—buy Bitcoin" funding flywheel temporarily ineffective. However, Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes this model reflects more of a "decline in efficiency" rather than a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile, Ripple continues to adopt an industry-contrarian perspective, reiterating the distinct value path of its ecosystem asset XRP compared to Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
CryptoQuant: Strategy Should Pause Bitcoin Purchases to Prioritize Rebuilding Cash Reserves
CryptoQuant suggests Michael Saylor's Strategy should currently pause further Bitcoin purchases and instead prioritize rebuilding its cash reserves, as its dividend obligations have significantly increased, cash reserves have sharply declined, and unrealized losses on Bitcoin are widening.Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that Strategy's preferred stock, STRC, fell to $82.50 last week, a 17.5% discount from its $100 par value, marking its largest historical discount. This pressure stems from the bearish Bitcoin market environment and the company's diminished cash buffer capacity.The report states that Strategy recently repurchased $1.5 billion of its 0% convertible senior notes due 2029, further reducing the cash buffer available to support STRC dividend payments. Meanwhile, the company's cash reserves have declined by 38% since the beginning of 2026.On the other hand, as Strategy issues more STRC to finance Bitcoin purchases, its annualized dividend obligation has risen from approximately $300 million at the start of the year to roughly $1.2 billion currently—a nearly fourfold increase in less than six months. CryptoQuant believes the company should become more selective in its Bitcoin purchases rather than continuing indiscriminate accumulation amid intensifying cash pressures.
CryptoQuant Founder: The Biggest Risk for Bitcoin is Not a Crash, but Long-Term Stagnation
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the biggest risk for Bitcoin is not a crash, but long-term stagnation. Saylor's STRC structure becomes truly dangerous, not when Bitcoin simply crashes, but when Bitcoin undergoes years of sideways consolidation and a prolonged bear market.If the market still believes in the next rally, sharp pullbacks can be endured. However, long-term stagnation weakens the narrative, reduces demand, compresses the MSTR premium, and makes it difficult for Saylor's financing machine to sustain itself. Ki Young Ju indicated that Saylor's real challenge is not just buying more Bitcoin, but providing the market with new reasons for conviction. Ki Young Ju pointed out that, contrary to the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin's performance often resembles that of tech stocks.
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold Sees V-Shaped Rebound, Bitcoin's Key Range Settles at $64,000-$65,000
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
BitMEX to Shut Down on September 23; Was an Early Crypto Derivatives Exchange
: Crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX has announced it will shut down, with trading scheduled to conclude on September 23. Founded in 2014 by Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo, and Samuel Reed, BitMEX made the decision after a strategic review by its parent company, HDR Global Trading. BitMEX played a pioneering role in making perpetual contracts a key product in digital asset derivatives trading. Data from CryptoQuant shows that its Bitcoin futures daily trading volume began to decline around May 2021 and has failed to recover to its peak daily range of $1 billion to $5 billion seen in 2020. Restructuring advisor Roshan Dharia stated that mid-tier centralized exchanges face structural pressures, with liquidity increasingly concentrating on larger platforms and compliance costs rising. He noted that the top five platforms are currently estimated to control 80% of global spot trading volume, while mid-tier and regional exchanges are seeing narrowing profit margins and lack clear paths to scale. According to CoinGecko data, BitMEX ranked ninth among derivatives exchanges in August 2023, holding a 0.9% market share. By 2025, it was no longer among the top ten perpetual contract exchanges. Over the same period, these platforms saw their annual perpetual contract trading volume grow by 47.4%, reaching $86.2 trillion.
Analyst: Stablecoin Reserve Decline Signals Liquidity Contraction, Bitcoin Breakout Still Lacks Funding Support
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin has been oscillating around the key support level of $60,000 for nearly 165 days, failing to hold firm and reignite upward momentum. One core reason is the market's lack of new liquidity. Over the past 30 days, the net outflow of stablecoin reserves from Binance and Bybit has approached $2.3 billion. New demand, whether flowing into Bitcoin or the entire crypto market, remains weak. Since the beginning of this year, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have continued to decline. This rather pessimistic market sentiment continues to restrict the funding support needed for Bitcoin to break out of its current consolidation range.However, as regulatory measures like the GENIUS Act require stablecoins to improve compliance, the decentralized nature of the stablecoin ecosystem may be weakened. In the long term, Bitcoin's decentralized characteristics could thereby become more prominent.
CryptoQuant: Binance Monthly Futures Trading Volume Reaches $1.6 Trillion, Setting New High for the Year
According to a report released by CryptoQuant analyst maartunn, Binance's monthly futures trading volume has climbed to $1.6 trillion, the highest level this year. Despite the current Bitcoin price still hovering in the mid-$60,000 range, generally cautious market sentiment, and multiple headwinds such as the European MiCA regulatory adjustment period and the summer trading off-season, momentum in Binance derivatives trading has not subsided, indicating that traders are still actively establishing futures positions.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Unusual BTC Derivatives Volume May Signal a Larger-Scale Directional Move
According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, abnormal surges in trading volume in the Bitcoin market typically precede significant price re-pricings and serve as a key “footprint” signaling large-capital inflows. In the current cycle, the relative weight of spot trading volume has been diluted by ETFs and derivatives; while some institutional capital flows in via regulated channels, a sudden surge in spot volume still reflects genuine chip transfer, accumulation, or distribution activity. Derivatives trading volume has become the core mechanism driving volatility transmission. Its anomalies are often accompanied by liquidity sweeps and leverage resets, indicating that “smart money” is leveraging futures and perpetual contracts to position itself ahead of time. Analysts note that abnormal volume clustering occurred prior to multiple critical turning points between 2024 and 2026; when prices are compressed or uncertain, such abnormal volume expansion typically signals the imminent onset of a larger-scale directional move.
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Dot Plot Shocks Market: Gold Sees V-Shaped Rebound, Bitcoin's Key Range Settles at $64,000-$65,000
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
South Korea’s virtual asset trading volume has dropped to approximately 8% of the KOSPI, and the Bitcoin South Korean premium remains negative.
According to Digital Asset, domestic virtual asset trading volume in South Korea has fallen to approximately 8% of KOSPI trading volume—less than one-tenth. Media statistics show that, as of May 26, the ratio of trading volume on Korean won-based exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax) to KOSPI trading volume stood at just 8%. The report notes that South Korea’s virtual asset market has been weakening continuously since the second half of 2025; it declined sharply following a large-scale futures liquidation event in October 2025, while the KOSPI strengthened amid a semiconductor upcycle and supportive government policies. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Korea Premium indicator has been negative for most of the time since March, reflecting weak buying demand in the Korean market.
Analyst: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Share Drops to Phase Low, Long-Term Holders Dominate Market Structure
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that data shows Bitcoin is shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. The share of Short-Term Holders (STH) has dropped to 23%, the lowest level since the bottoming phase from 2022 to 2023; meanwhile, the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is approaching historical highs.
Data: Currently, approximately $204.77 million worth of tokens are staked, accounting for about 43% of the circulating supply.
On-chain data shows that Avalanche (AVAX) currently has approximately $204.77 million worth of tokens staked, accounting for about 43% of the circulating supply, with a large amount of holdings locked. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, whale investors are adding positions simultaneously in the spot and futures markets, positioning in advance without waiting for breakout confirmation. Technically, AVAX is currently consolidating near the apex of the pennant pattern at $6.46, and the Stochastic RSI has not yet touched the oversold zone. According to the CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, over $1 million in liquidity is clustered near the $6.90 price level, becoming the next key target price for bulls.
Analyst: Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Positive Again, Market Sentiment May See Turning Point
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since July, sentiment in the derivatives market has recovered, and the Binance funding rate, as an important reference indicator for the futures market, has started to turn positive again. He believes that from March to late May, Bitcoin experienced a deep correction, market pessimism accumulated and drove the funding rate to turn negative at one point, and this process once provided support for Bitcoin's technical rebound.
Analyst: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Transfer Volume to Exchanges Rises to High Levels
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that data shows the volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) inflows to exchanges recently reached a phased high. Based on the 90-day average, current long-term holder inflows account for 5.1% of total exchange inflows, approaching historical highs, surpassed only by the level of approximately 5.5% in 2020.
分析师：比特币现货成交量持续萎缩，降至接近 2023 年熊市后期水平
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 表示，数据显示，7 月比特币现货成交量延续下滑趋势，主要交易平台较 2024 年末高点普遍显著回落，整体市场活跃度已接近 2023 年熊市后期水平。其中，币安 7 月现货成交额超过 350 亿美元，但明显低于 2024 年 11 月的 2460 亿美元；同期，Bybit、Coinbase 和 OKX 的现货成交量分别下降 85%、61% 和 67%，显示成交萎缩并非单一平台现象，而是全球性趋势。
Analyst: Bitcoin Spot and Futures Demand Remains Weak, Market Stabilization May Be More Due to Selling Pressure Exhaustion
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's overall demand structure has shown weakness, primarily exhibiting two states: first, simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand; second, a brief rebound in futures demand driven solely by speculation, while spot demand continued to shrink.
Analysis: US Treasury Yields Rise to Highs, Four Major Risk Factors Weighing on Bitcoin Rebound
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out in a weekly report analysis that the US 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, raising financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.
Analyst: Stablecoin Reserve Decline Signals Liquidity Contraction, Bitcoin Breakout Still Lacks Funding Support
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin has been oscillating around the key support level of $60,000 for nearly 165 days, failing to hold firm and reignite upward momentum. One core reason is the market's lack of new liquidity. Over the past 30 days, the net outflow of stablecoin reserves from Binance and Bybit has approached $2.3 billion. New demand, whether flowing into Bitcoin or the entire crypto market, remains weak. Since the beginning of this year, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have continued to decline. This rather pessimistic market sentiment continues to restrict the funding support needed for Bitcoin to break out of its current consolidation range.However, as regulatory measures like the GENIUS Act require stablecoins to improve compliance, the decentralized nature of the stablecoin ecosystem may be weakened. In the long term, Bitcoin's decentralized characteristics could thereby become more prominent.
CryptoQuant: Binance Monthly Futures Trading Volume Reaches $1.6 Trillion, Setting New High for the Year
According to a report released by CryptoQuant analyst maartunn, Binance's monthly futures trading volume has climbed to $1.6 trillion, the highest level this year. Despite the current Bitcoin price still hovering in the mid-$60,000 range, generally cautious market sentiment, and multiple headwinds such as the European MiCA regulatory adjustment period and the summer trading off-season, momentum in Binance derivatives trading has not subsided, indicating that traders are still actively establishing futures positions.
Analyst: Bitcoin short-term buying pressure cools, capital momentum remains weak, institutional fund return still needs observation
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis report. According to his Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model, the current buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is cooling down slightly, but buying power remains dominant.
CryptoQuant CEO: Unsure if Bitcoin Has Bottomed, Still Far from Bottom from a Traditional Cycle Perspective
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on the X platform that he is unsure whether Bitcoin is at a cycle bottom. A logarithmic chart he released indicates that, from a traditional cycle perspective, Bitcoin still appears far from a bottom, with each major cycle having touched the realized price before; if this time it does not, perhaps "it's different this time." When the price approaches the cost basis of investors, the risk-reward ratio significantly improves.
CryptoQuant: Strategy Should Pause Bitcoin Purchases to Prioritize Rebuilding Cash Reserves
CryptoQuant suggests Michael Saylor's Strategy should currently pause further Bitcoin purchases and instead prioritize rebuilding its cash reserves, as its dividend obligations have significantly increased, cash reserves have sharply declined, and unrealized losses on Bitcoin are widening.Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that Strategy's preferred stock, STRC, fell to $82.50 last week, a 17.5% discount from its $100 par value, marking its largest historical discount. This pressure stems from the bearish Bitcoin market environment and the company's diminished cash buffer capacity.The report states that Strategy recently repurchased $1.5 billion of its 0% convertible senior notes due 2029, further reducing the cash buffer available to support STRC dividend payments. Meanwhile, the company's cash reserves have declined by 38% since the beginning of 2026.On the other hand, as Strategy issues more STRC to finance Bitcoin purchases, its annualized dividend obligation has risen from approximately $300 million at the start of the year to roughly $1.2 billion currently—a nearly fourfold increase in less than six months. CryptoQuant believes the company should become more selective in its Bitcoin purchases rather than continuing indiscriminate accumulation amid intensifying cash pressures.
Related news
Analyst: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Share Drops to Phase Low, Long-Term Holders Dominate Market Structure
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that data shows Bitcoin is shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. The share of Short-Term Holders (STH) has dropped to 23%, the lowest level since the bottoming phase from 2022 to 2023; meanwhile, the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is approaching historical highs.
Data: Currently, approximately $204.77 million worth of tokens are staked, accounting for about 43% of the circulating supply.
On-chain data shows that Avalanche (AVAX) currently has approximately $204.77 million worth of tokens staked, accounting for about 43% of the circulating supply, with a large amount of holdings locked. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, whale investors are adding positions simultaneously in the spot and futures markets, positioning in advance without waiting for breakout confirmation. Technically, AVAX is currently consolidating near the apex of the pennant pattern at $6.46, and the Stochastic RSI has not yet touched the oversold zone. According to the CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, over $1 million in liquidity is clustered near the $6.90 price level, becoming the next key target price for bulls.
Analyst: Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Positive Again, Market Sentiment May See Turning Point
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since July, sentiment in the derivatives market has recovered, and the Binance funding rate, as an important reference indicator for the futures market, has started to turn positive again. He believes that from March to late May, Bitcoin experienced a deep correction, market pessimism accumulated and drove the funding rate to turn negative at one point, and this process once provided support for Bitcoin's technical rebound.
Analyst: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Transfer Volume to Exchanges Rises to High Levels
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that data shows the volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) inflows to exchanges recently reached a phased high. Based on the 90-day average, current long-term holder inflows account for 5.1% of total exchange inflows, approaching historical highs, surpassed only by the level of approximately 5.5% in 2020.
分析师：比特币现货成交量持续萎缩，降至接近 2023 年熊市后期水平
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 表示，数据显示，7 月比特币现货成交量延续下滑趋势，主要交易平台较 2024 年末高点普遍显著回落，整体市场活跃度已接近 2023 年熊市后期水平。其中，币安 7 月现货成交额超过 350 亿美元，但明显低于 2024 年 11 月的 2460 亿美元；同期，Bybit、Coinbase 和 OKX 的现货成交量分别下降 85%、61% 和 67%，显示成交萎缩并非单一平台现象，而是全球性趋势。
Analyst: Bitcoin Spot and Futures Demand Remains Weak, Market Stabilization May Be More Due to Selling Pressure Exhaustion
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's overall demand structure has shown weakness, primarily exhibiting two states: first, simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand; second, a brief rebound in futures demand driven solely by speculation, while spot demand continued to shrink.