Analysis: Inflation Suppresses Rate Cut Expectations; Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Is Still Far Off

According to The Block, the U.S. May core PCE inflation data—coming in higher than expected at a 3.4% year-on-year increase, the highest since October 2023—further dampened market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $58,000 on Thursday, marking its lowest level since late 2024, and is currently trading sideways around $59,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days, with a single-day net redemption of $696 million on June 25. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw net outflows for six straight days, with $81.9 million flowing out on the same day. Analysts noted that Bitcoin’s dominance remains near 55%, indicating capital rotation toward high-quality assets rather than broad-based withdrawal. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin’s 4-year rolling realized price risk/reward ratio has yet to reach historical cycle lows, suggesting the asset may not have approached the bottom of this cycle.