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Gaah, an analyst at CryptoQuant, stated that the Bitcoin cycle momentum indicator has yet to break above the neutral zone of 0, suggesting the bear market phase has not yet ended. The indicator has declined to around −30—a level historically associated with the formation of cyclical bottoms and has repeatedly served as a key support level for Bitcoin. However, to confirm a trend reversal, price must form a bullish pattern while the indicator breaks above the neutral zone.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah’s monitoring, the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has yet to break above the neutral zone (0), clearly signaling the continuation of the bear market. The indicator has currently declined to the -30 level—a range that has historically served as a key cyclical support zone and formed major cycle bottoms on multiple occasions. Analysts note that for a trend reversal to be confirmed, price must first form a bullish pattern, accompanied by the indicator’s effective breakout above the neutral zone.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the phenomenon of capital flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins, which once drove altcoin market trends, has largely disappeared.He pointed out that since 2021, the trading volume of altcoins paired against BTC has significantly shrunk, and the market structure has undergone notable changes.Ki Young Ju believes that the era where "a rise in Bitcoin leads to a broad rally in altcoins" may have ended. In the future, altcoins may rely more on their own fundamentals, use cases, and independent capital inflows to drive price increases.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin’s biggest current risk is not a sudden price drop, but rather the erosion of its market narrative amid prolonged sideways trading and an extended bear market. He pointed out that if Bitcoin lacks a compelling upward thesis for an extended period, demand could weaken, MicroStrategy’s premium may come under pressure, and Michael Saylor’s model—relying on capital markets to continuously accumulate Bitcoin—will become increasingly difficult to sustain.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk stated that the data shows Binance’s Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate is approximately 370 basis points lower than the median across three exchanges, placing it in the bottom ~2.8% since 2021—indicating significantly stronger bearish pricing on Binance.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that during this correction, large investors holding more than 1 Bitcoin are taking advantage of the price decline to increase their positions. Their total BTC holdings have reached a new all-time high, exceeding 16.8 million coins, indicating that long-term allocation demand continues to strengthen and further reflecting the institutionalization trend of Bitcoin as an asset.Data shows that the holdings of this type of investor have continued to rise, suggesting that market participants are more inclined towards asset allocation from a long-term perspective rather than short-term trading.At the retail level, analysis indicates signs of re-accumulation are emerging, but the overall sentiment remains cautious. Current retail holdings are approximately 1.7 million BTC, still below the all-time high recorded in December 2023. Some retail investors chose to take profits during the previous price rally, while others may have adjusted their exposure through more convenient channels such as ETFs.The analysis suggests that although the behavioral pace differs among various investor groups, the market as a whole is gradually forming a consensus that the current phase is more suited for a long-term allocation window. The trend of funds re-entering the accumulation phase is strengthening.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom for this cycle remains around $48,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s post-adjustment seller risk ratio indicator shows that unprofitable supply is beginning to surpass profitable supply, and unrealized pressure on holders is rising significantly. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) valuation model indicates that Bitcoin’s structural bottom for this cycle is approximately $48,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that BTC whale selling has ended: total whale holdings turned upward on June 14 after declining for 12 consecutive days, and the price rebounded to $65,704.89. Data shows that the Coin Days Destroyed inflow dropped from 2.16 million to just 33,000—nearly zero—indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders.
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that this week, the market was significantly impacted by SpaceX's massive IPO, drawing risk concerns across asset classes. Although the overall risk appetite indicator remains in a deviation zone, it has provided some relief in terms of market sentiment. For Bitcoin, this week marks a recovery phase from the low of $60,000. However, structural selling pressure persists. Data shows a weekly net outflow of about 20,900 BTC from exchanges, indicating that the ongoing selling pressure has not fully eased. The short-term rebound is primarily driven by short covering, as accumulated short positions over the past month are being liquidated intensively, forming periodic price support. Additionally, pressure on miners has begun to emerge. The overall risk appetite has not yet clearly turned positive, and the market is in a transitional state of "repair and deleveraging coexisting."
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
According to a post by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Percent of Supply in Profit” indicator is approaching the critical 45% threshold. Historical data shows this level typically coincides with periods of intense market stress and heightened risk of mass capitulation—contrasting sharply with bull market peaks, where the indicator often exceeds 90%. Current figures indicate that a large portion of Bitcoin holdings have shifted from profitable to unprofitable positions, signaling a deep reset in market expectations rather than a state of euphoria. From an on-chain perspective, profit compression often drives a transfer of coins from weak hands to long-term holders. This may intensify short-term volatility, but historically, such redistribution processes have contributed to healthier market structure—and longer-term opportunities may now be emerging.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin whales dominated buying at the $60,000 to $61,000 range, accounting for 61.6% of purchase activity in this range.
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV pointed out in an analysis that Bitcoin demand has entered one of the most extreme contraction states since 2019. The 30-day combined demand growth for spot and perpetual futures has fallen to approximately -650,000 BTC, a threshold that has only appeared three times in history.The simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand indicates that the weakness is not limited to leveraged speculation; institutional buying and derivative exposure are also retreating synchronously. Bitcoin faces fewer marginal buyers and weaker capacity to absorb selling pressure. Historically, the deep support zone of -650,000 BTC usually marks the beginning of a highly volatile market phase, rather than an immediate bottom.
CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin demand has reached a level seen only three times since 2019. Analyst @MorenoDV_ noted that the current market movement resembles the beginning of a final liquidation phase rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently at 1.1, approaching the historically significant low-valuation zone that has marked major market bottoms. If the price falls further to the $50,000 level, the MVRV could reach 1.0—the full low-valuation threshold. Historical data shows this level appeared at the bottom of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each time serving as the starting point for strong medium- to long-term rebounds.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is once again testing its ~$62,000 low, while the current 7-day net realized loss has reached approximately $7 billion—higher than the level observed at February’s lows this year, though still below the peak loss of ~$14 billion seen during the winter market panic. Bitcoin’s current price has clearly fallen below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at ~$76,000. If the price declines further, the main support levels remaining are the network-wide average realized price of ~$54,000 and the long-term holders’ (LTH) cost basis at ~$49,000—both zones historically corresponding to capitulation phases and cycle bottoms. However, as long as Bitcoin holds above $54,000, the market will not enter a full capitulation phase; if it breaks below and sustains trading beneath February’s market low this year, it could potentially test ~$54,000—the final line of defense for this cycle.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, posted on platform X stating that the selling by Bitcoin OGs and old miners is essentially a process of absorption by traditional U.S. financial institutional investors and ETFs. He disagrees with the view that "Bitcoin lacks liquidity and cannot rise," pointing out that the key to asset value lies in who holds it.He believes that the institutional investors now holding Bitcoin could form a stronger demand base. Although the cyberpunk value of Bitcoin may be somewhat diluted in this process, the next round of upward movement will still arrive. As an investor, he remains bullish on Bitcoin and advises holding with patience.