News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily reports: On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says long-term holders hold roughly 4 million BTC with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000, most of which was purchased in 2025. At Bitcoin's current price, these holdings are worth approximately $326 billion, and holders are currently facing losses.Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses holding coins for more than 155 days, and notes that the $84,000–$85,000 range has pushed Bitcoin back four times this year; since January, Bitcoin has closed above that range on only 5 days. Glassnode says that if prices recover to the relevant cost basis range, some holders may choose to sell to break even.U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have an average cost basis of about $81,500–$82,000. Glassnode says ETF holders' average unrealized loss as of Monday was about $2.63 billion; the estimate only tracks fund flows and does not include the purchase costs of secondary-market buyers. (Decrypt)
Trader Killa posted that despite the market facing multiple bearish factors—including the Fed's hawkish decision, rising oil prices, hotter-than-expected CPI data, surging global bond yields, a stronger dollar, the Ledger wallet hack, and market concerns over Strategy (MSTR)'s delisting risk and its pivot to AI—Bitcoin has still maintained range-bound trading. Given the current macroeconomic pressures and negative news, Bitcoin should have fallen below $70,000, but its resilience is noteworthy. The market may be gradually forming a significant interim bottom, and its ability to hold the price range amid bearish shocks indicates that it is absorbing negative news, which is also a typical characteristic of a bull market.
Analyst Darkfost stated that Strategy currently holds 848,517 BTC, with an overall average purchase cost of approximately $75,446. Bitcoin’s price has recently reclaimed its 2026 cost basis line of around $78,900, but if accounting for all purchases since 2025 and sales made at the summer lows, the estimated cost remains at approximately $90,600, which is higher than the current BTC price.
Odaily reports: Bitcoin News posted on X platform that Australia's Westpac Bank will impose a monthly cap of AUD 10,000 on customer payments to cryptocurrency exchanges starting December 1. Once the limit is reached, Westpac may decline payments it identifies as being made to crypto exchanges; the cap applies in aggregate across all Westpac accounts through online banking, the Westpac app, and credit and debit card payments, with no exemptions or higher limits. Westpac does not support customers making payments to crypto exchanges at branches, and transfers from exchanges into Westpac accounts are unaffected.Westpac said the move is aimed at combating scams, citing data from Australia's National Anti-Scam Centre that 46% of reported scam losses last year involved cryptocurrency. Customers purchasing more than AUD 10,000 of Bitcoin per month will need to fund the excess through other banks.
According to data released by Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $137.32 million yesterday, with BlackRock IBIT recording a net inflow of $136 million, Bitwise BITB a net inflow of $1.32 million, and net flows for other funds such as Fidelity FBTC, Grayscale GBTC, and ARK ARKB all at zero.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) stated on X that year-to-date net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have been near zero, yet the year-to-date drawdown for BTC is only around 7%. Given weak ETF demand and resilient prices, it is unlikely that early whales or miners will execute large-scale sell-offs, as holders looking to exit may have already done so. He anticipates that once the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. midterm elections subsides and ETF capital flows resume, bullish market momentum will likely return. He also shared a CryptoQuant chart depicting Bitcoin ETF annual holdings.
Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to approximately 25%, falling back to summer 2023 levels; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of decline have continued to narrow, suggesting that selling pressure has eased somewhat. Glassnode believes that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state characterized by weak demand and limited selling pressure, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. If the daily close reclaims the $85,000 level, it could serve as an initial signal for a further rebound; if it breaks below the active investors' average cost of approximately $77,900, attention should be paid to short-term holder cost support near $75,800.Market data shows that Bitcoin has fallen back below the $84,000–$85,000 range, which has capped price gains four times this year. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled notably, with net inflows of only about $67 million over the past two weeks; major buy-order support on Binance's spot order book has also shifted down to the $78,000–$79,000 range, amounting to approximately $42 million.
Odaily reports: According to alicharts monitoring, although Bitcoin rose over 1% today, it is still quite likely to experience another significant decline due to the impact of the FOMC meeting. Data shows that Bitcoin whale cohorts have recently realized approximately $156 million in profits, increasing potential selling pressure. Over the past 24 hours, whale holdings have decreased by approximately 8,162 BTC, worth about $664 million. alicharts states that this indicates large holders are reducing exposure ahead of the FOMC decision. Bitcoin's current key support level is near $81,000; according to URPD, nearly 1 million BTC were previously traded at this price level. If it breaks below, attention should then focus on $77,000 and $67,000. To turn bullish, Bitcoin needs to break above $84,500, where approximately 620,000 BTC were previously traded. In addition, recent FOMC meetings and Bitcoin price fluctuation patterns show that Bitcoin's volatility within the first hour after the meeting is usually less than 1%, with a clearer direction often emerging within the following 24 hours and typically persisting until a week later.
Odaily reports: Bitcoin rose about 0.8% since midnight (UTC) on Monday to $81,400, after briefly falling below $80,000. Ethereum gained 0.9%, Asian chip stocks led a tech rebound, South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%, SK Hynix climbed about 11% on roughly 7x year-over-year profit growth, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.The Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market sees about a 92% probability of rates being held steady. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to gauge whether there is any possibility of a rate hike ahead. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $176 million on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive trading day of inflows.On the derivatives side, crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $163.2 billion, open interest increased only 1.3%, and liquidations rose 38% to $183.6 million. Bitcoin rose 2.3% while open interest actually fell 0.1%; Ethereum rose 2.7% with open interest up 1.7%, indicating the price rebound has not yet been accompanied by large-scale new leverage. ZEC open interest grew 14%, higher than its 6.3% price gain over the same period, making it one of the large crypto assets with the most obvious new position building.In the options market, Deribit data shows that Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, indicating that demand for short-term downside protection has weakened somewhat, though the one-month, three-month and six-month tenors remain clearly skewed toward puts. Meanwhile, gold futures open interest fell 10%, while open interest for Tether's gold token XAUT rose 11.6%, showing divergent capital flows. (CoinDesk)
This analysis warns that the metric was also rising near the top in 2025, when long-term holders were taking profits and selling to new buyers, so an increase does not guarantee continued price appreciation. Going forward, attention should focus on whether the metric continues to expand, and whether prices can hold their gains as capital inflows increase.
According to data from Farside Investors, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $176 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT posting a net inflow of $151.5 million and Fidelity's FBTC seeing a net inflow of $24.5 million, while inflows and outflows for all other products were zero. During the same period, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $60.2 million, with BlackRock's ETHA experiencing a net outflow of $93.3 million and Fidelity's FETH recording a net inflow of $28.6 million, while inflows and outflows for all other products were zero.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, 6 hours ago, three whales deposited 6,168 Bitcoin into Coinbase Prime, worth $498.5 million.
Analyst Crypto Dan noted that historically, when the on-chain share of Bitcoin held for over 18 months rises and then begins to decline, it has typically been followed by a strong rally. He believes the market has already entered a bullish cycle but remains in its early stages, with the aforementioned signal yet to emerge. Additionally, the crypto market has not yet become overheated, as most investors are maintaining a wait-and-see stance, suggesting that the true uptrend may not have started just yet.
According to Bloomberg, bitcoin's upward momentum has gradually faded following its summer rally, with prices currently pulling back to around $80,000. Investors face persistent selling pressure as they attempt to break through the $100,000 threshold. The cost basis for those who bought bitcoin over the past two years is concentrated at $87,000 and above. Breakeven selling pressure near this level has twice stifled bitcoin's rallies this year, each followed by a price drawdown of at least 25%.
Whale Alert detected 931 BTC being transferred from Kraken to an unknown wallet, valued at approximately $75.15 million.
Odaily report: Trader Killa posted that he still holds a Bitcoin long position with an entry price of $76,400. His trading plan remains completely unchanged, and he will not move the stop-loss up to the entry price. Instead, he will continue holding until the target price is reached or the stop-loss is triggered. To capture major market moves, one must patiently endure prolonged consolidation ranges and tedious price fluctuations.Killa also stated that frequently changing trading stance is precisely the reason many traders lose money. The key lies in whether the market structure and trading plan have changed; currently, neither has changed, so he will not panic or waver.
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that the Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index has fallen back into negative territory, currently at -11 and continuing to decline, indicating that the previous extreme greed phase has passed and bearish market sentiment is beginning to accumulate.Darkfost noted that the current index reading remains within a relatively neutral range but clearly reflects deteriorating sentiment in the Bitcoin market. The index fluctuates between -100 and +100, combining the Fear and Greed Index and CoinGecko sentiment survey data, and is standardized based on a rolling one-year window.
According to Wintermute's weekly market report, Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, breaking below $82,500 and retesting $80,000 before closing at approximately $80,500. ETH dropped 3.40%, closing at around $2,330. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, the largest single-day outflow since June, coinciding with a 2.6% drop in the Nasdaq on the same day. On the macro front, following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, Brent crude surged 5.66% to $116.72, with oil prices displacing AI financing as the primary market concern. Wintermute noted that as of October 18, markets price in roughly an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this Wednesday, alongside expectations for a December rate hike. The Fed's forward guidance regarding December represents the key risk. Technically, BTC must reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 zone. Should the $80,000 level fail, the next support sits at $76,000, with a breakdown likely pushing prices to just over $70,000. The firm stated it is temporarily not taking a bearish view but will remain cautious until the FOMC meeting concludes and BTC reclaims $82,500. Key upcoming events include the October 28 FOMC meeting, October 29 reports for Q3 GDP and September PCE data, and the October 30 monthly options expiration.
Odaily Report: Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday, down about 0.4% since UTC midnight and touching a low of around $79,700. Ethereum dropped 0.5%, while the DeFi index fell 1.8%, the largest decline among CoinDesk-tracked indices. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI rose 3.1% as Asian tech stocks strengthened, but the crypto market failed to follow the rebound.On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and announce its rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows the market sees about a 90% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, with traders watching whether there is still any chance of a rate hike this year.In the options market, the $72,000 put expiring December 25 was the most-traded Bitcoin option over the past 24 hours, and the 25 Delta put/call skew for Bitcoin options across maturities is positive, indicating the market still has demand for downside protection. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), BlackRock transferred 1,698 BTC from its IBIT Bitcoin ETF wallet to Coinbase Prime, worth approximately $135.59 million.