News linked to both this project and an event.
Galaxy's head of research posted on X that Bitcoin ETF net inflows remain positive year-to-date, reaching $355 million, and turned positive again in September.
market analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin can return to $100,000 before the end of 2026.Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, believes that factors such as institutional demand through ETFs and corporate Bitcoin purchases, concerns over inflation and government debt, and an improving regulatory environment are expected to push Bitcoin to higher levels by year-end, potentially even breaking through $100,000.Adam Morgan McCarthy, Head of Research at London-based crypto trading and market data firm LO:TECH, expects Bitcoin to trade mainly in the $85,000 to $95,000 range through year-end. He noted that inflation pressures and the possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will continue to weigh on Bitcoin's performance. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% month-over-month in September, with core CPI up 0.3% month-over-month, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.Luca Invernizzi, Senior Derivatives Trader at Nomura's crypto unit Laser Digital, said Bitcoin will remain primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and U.S. long-term Treasury yields in the near term. However, market leverage has been largely flushed out, and if Bitcoin effectively breaks above $90,000, it could trigger a new round of short-covering. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, also believes that the contradiction between inflation and a weakening job market will influence the Fed's subsequent policy decisions and Bitcoin's trajectory. (CoinDesk)
Odaily report: Trader Killa posted that Bitcoin's rise is not necessarily because the trend follows logic—sometimes it's precisely because the market defies conventional reasoning. If market movements always followed logic and every fluctuation could be explained rationally, everyone would make money, but the Bitcoin market is not like that. Killa stated that he remains bullish on Bitcoin and holds a long BTC position, and will not close it until the price reaches $126,000.
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that since late August, small- and mid-cap crypto assets have seen the strongest market cap growth, with the gap between their monthly average and yearly average market cap continuing to widen, and the relevant ratio now reaching 41%. By comparison, Bitcoin's ratio stands at 7%, while large-cap crypto assets are at just 3.5%.Darkfost noted that this trend is relatively rare, as rallies are typically initiated by Bitcoin first, as was the case in the market performance after the 2023 bear market ended. However, small- and mid-cap assets are more sensitive to market changes, and the current trend could also reverse rapidly.
Odaily reports: Crypto trader Ansem shared his recent investment views, stating that the crypto market is gradually shifting toward a phase that places greater emphasis on individual project fundamentals, capital inflows, and actual business performance. As a result, identifying mispriced assets and determining which teams are truly driving project development will become increasingly important, rather than relying entirely on the price action of major assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.Ansem believes that the investment approach to altcoins in this cycle differs from the past. Assets such as HYPE and ZEC have, even during periods of overall market weakness, decoupled from Bitcoin and Ethereum and charted independent price movements.
Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated in a post that after Bitcoin encountered resistance around $87,000, the MVRV metric fell below the historical 30th percentile (25.7%), indicating that the market has reentered a transitional phase following capitulation selling. Darkfost further pointed out that this indicator does not simply measure the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized market capitalization, but instead compares current MVRV levels against their historical context. The current valuation level accounts for only about 25% of historical time, which still aligns with the characteristics of a market accumulation phase. However, Bitcoin has now moved out of the extremely undervalued range, which has historically coincided with market bottoms.
Odaily reports, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Hyperliquid trader had two short positions liquidated, losing $47,900. Among them, the BTC short position was worth $4.29 million, with a loss of $46,070; the ZEC short position was worth $61,880, with a loss of $1,800. Hours earlier, the trader had deposited $200,000 USDC in an attempt to save the positions. Currently, the trader still holds $17.36 million in open short positions, with an unrealized loss of $149,900.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi, an address lost $9.05 million on long positions over the course of a week but continued to add to its position. At the end of September this year, the address's Hyperliquid account was once up $19.7 million in profit, after which the account's returns declined. Its most recent BTC 40x long position was opened in the early hours of October 16, with the position at one point increased to $187 million; 5 hours ago, its ETH long position worth $11.74 million was fully liquidated, with a loss of $1.08 million. As of now, the address's ETH and BTC trades have realized a combined loss of $4.5 million. It currently has a remaining $110 million BTC long position totaling 1,355.6 BTC, with an unrealized loss of $287,000, and plans to stop out of the entire position if the price falls below $80,500.
Odaily Report: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale holds a 1,360 BTC long position worth $110 million, with a liquidation price of $80,034, and has set a market stop-loss at $80,500.
Odaily reports: According to Onchain Lens monitoring, two whales that had been dormant for 12 to 13 years transferred 416.6941 BTC to the same address. Among them, a wallet dormant for 13 years transferred 167.8402 BTC, worth $13.62 million; a wallet dormant for 12 years transferred 248.8539 BTC, worth $20.20 million. The original value of the above BTC was approximately $105,400, and its current value has increased by approximately $33.71 million.
Analyst Killa posted on X that Bitcoin rose over the past 3 weekends and then reversed on Monday. When greater downward pressure occurs over the weekend, the market typically sees the opposite move; if Bitcoin rises into the weekly close, Monday is worth watching closely, and if it starts to fall over the weekend, the last time a similar situation occurred, Bitcoin subsequently rose.
Arthur Hayes stated that the so-called crypto quantum threat is a known and manageable risk, not a reason to sell Bitcoin. The truly practical protection lies in proper wallet management, including avoiding address reuse and using newer signature types; most of the risk is concentrated among users with poor address management practices.
Odaily reports: BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on the Convergence program on October 16 that OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are all unprofitable, and that AI model companies rely on debt financing, equity financing, and implicit support from the U.S. government.The Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.5%, and chip stocks declined for an eighth consecutive day, marking the longest losing streak since 2008. On October 17, Bitcoin's price was close to $81,400. A Bank of America analyst said the $1 trillion AI investment boom may follow a typical boom-and-bust cycle.Hayes believes that the bigger the AI bubble, the larger the subsequent bailout will be, and the higher Bitcoin's price will go. He also said Bitcoin can reflect wasted capital. He also criticized token issuance methods, saying that retail investors who bought at TGE and then suffered a 95% drop were the ones who got hurt. (Bitcoin.com News)
Regarding recent community speculation that a 20% correction in the US stock market would trigger a plunge in Bitcoin to $10,000, crypto analyst Darkfost published an analysis noting that if Bitcoin were to fall to $10,000, it would represent a decline of approximately 87% from current prices and a drawdown of roughly 92% from its all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced a maximum drawdown exceeding 92%, which occurred in 2011; its maximum drawdowns in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4%, and 54.2%, respectively. Darkfost further pointed out that while Bitcoin fell approximately 80% when the S&P 500 index corrected by about 19.53%, it only declined around 22% during the S&P 500's similar pullback of over 19% in April 2025. Therefore, directly linking a 20% US stock market correction to Bitcoin falling to $10,000 is not sufficiently supported by historical data.
According to on-chain analyst Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $82.41 million yesterday, with a cumulative monthly net outflow of $614.9 million, and a year-to-date 2026 cumulative net inflow of $315.5 million. By product: • BlackRock IBIT net outflow of $71.8 million; • Fidelity FBTC net outflow of $10.61 million; • Other products including Grayscale GBTC, Grayscale Mini BTC, Bitwise BITB, Ark ARKB, and VanEck HODL all recorded net flows of zero for the day.
According to The Block, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete raised their price target for Strive (ASST) on Friday from $44 to $56. Strive's bitcoin holdings have increased to 35,595 BTC, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, up from 28,000 BTC at the end of September. This represents an acquisition of nearly 7,600 BTC over two weeks, surpassing TD Cowen's previous forecast of adding 4,750 BTC in the fourth quarter. The purchases include 3,311 BTC acquired on Tuesday (approximately $280 million, marking its largest single transaction since January) and 2,822 BTC on Wednesday. Strive is now the publicly traded company with the fourth-largest bitcoin treasury, marginally ahead of MARA's reported holdings. Strive has simultaneously expanded its SATS preferred stock offering to 7 million shares at $90 per share, targeting $630 million in proceeds, with completion expected by October 20. The company plans to reserve cash sufficient to cover dividend payments for 18 months. TD Cowen expects the offering to fund future bitcoin acquisitions without necessitating additional common stock issuance.
Odaily reports: Analyst MorenoDV stated that as of October 15, new whales held $78.61 billion in realized market cap, accounting for 33.06% of whales' total realized market cap; old whales held $159.15 billion. This share is higher than approximately 18% at the beginning of 2026, reflecting an increase in new whales' realized market cap weight within the whale cohort, but it does not represent their share of Bitcoin supply holdings. Since September, new whales' realized market cap has continued to rise, while old whales' realized market cap has generally remained stable. New whales' aggregate cost basis has dropped from approximately $110,000 near the previous cycle peak to approximately $68,000 by the end of August, before rebounding to approximately $77,000.
Glassnode posted on X that seller capitulation appeared once again during yesterday's BTC decline. Each previous wave of loss-driven selling occurred at local bottoms, in early August, mid-August, and mid-September respectively. Since the September high, profit-taking has slowed. If this pattern holds, yesterday's sell-off just above $80,000 would mark a local bottom.
CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X that analysts are not overly concerned about MSCI's decision, and overall market sentiment toward MSTR remains bullish. Target prices from Citibank, Barclays, and B. Riley are $240, $175, and $195 respectively, all recently raised with none lowered. He believes the impact of the MSCI exclusion is primarily limited to index-related fund flows, which have already been reflected in the stock price. What warrants attention now is Strategy's mNAV (the ratio of market capitalization to the value of its held Bitcoin) hovering around 1.0x, its perpetual preferred stock STRC trading at par, and the company's $3.75 billion in reserve funds, which are sufficient to cover dividend payments.
According to CoinDesk, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis disclosed on Thursday on X that a cryptocurrency scammer who profited from a "task scam" (luring victims with paid review boosting or order brushing, then demanding account top-ups under the guise of a "negative balance") transferred the illicit proceeds to three Ledger hardware wallet addresses. These addresses were subsequently drained by attackers, resulting in a total loss of 60 BTC valued at over $4.9 million, making it one of the biggest victims in this Ledger device intrusion incident.