News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily reports, according to monitoring data from Axel Adler Jr, the average cost basis for Bitcoin long-term holders is $48,600, and the current Bitcoin price is approximately 72% above their cost. This group has been in profit continuously since January 2023, with the most recent approach to the cost line occurring in March 2023.The average cost basis for Bitcoin long-term holders peaked at $49,500 on July 30 and has since declined by 1.7%. Since August 1, 60 out of 74 days have seen negative weekly changes, with the largest single-week decline of 0.34% on August 25, and the current reading is -0.06%. Axel Adler Jr stated that this decline remains moderate; if it continues to drop further, it would indicate accelerated selling, while a return to positive territory would mean long-term holders are re-accumulating.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Bitcoin OG transferred $138.32 million USDC to Binance. This whale currently holds $200 million USDC and $61.68 million USDT, totaling $261.68 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a Bitcoin OG address transferred out all 4,582 BTC, worth $378 million, after years of dormancy.
Odaily reports: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale/institution has cumulatively sold 837.8 BTC and bought 27,500 ETH, with a total purchase amount of $69.68 million and an average price of $2,534. The entire process is as follows: BTC that was withdrawn from HTX about a year and a half ago was transferred to Hyperliquid, sold and converted into USDC, then the USDC was transferred back to Arbitrum and bridged to Ethereum, and finally ETH was purchased on the Ethereum chain.
Odaily reports: On-chain analyst Murphy posted that as of October 11, the holdings of Bitcoin First Buyers (FB) in this cycle have reached 4.27 million coins, recovering to levels seen in mid-August 2023. Compared to before the market rally began in August of this year, new buyers have accumulated approximately 400,000 BTC over the past two months, accounting for about 2% of the total circulating supply, with an average monthly increase of about 200,000 coins. By comparison, between January and August 2023, new buyers accumulated approximately 340,000 BTC over a period of about 7 months.Murphy pointed out that the current BTC price is approximately 2.6 times that of the same period in 2023, meaning the capital required for new buyers to accumulate in this cycle is significantly larger than in the previous cycle, reflecting stronger new demand. Additionally, in September, the market saw the emergence of Momentum Buyers (MB) for the first time since January of this year — investors who continue to add to their positions above their own cost basis. Murphy believes that the emergence of such buyers helps boost market confidence and drive upward trends, while during bear market rebounds, momentum buyers typically do not see significant growth.
Odaily News — Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder (LTH) SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has climbed back above its annual average of 1.10 and continues to hold above that level.Data shows that long-term holders have realized an average return of approximately 10% over the past year. Currently, the weekly average LTH SOPR stands at 1.25, and the monthly average at 1.16, both above the annual average, indicating that long-term holders are returning to a profitable state.Darkfost noted that a similar situation also appeared at the end of the previous bear market, when the return of profits for long-term holders became one of the signals of improving market conditions. He believes that the emergence of moderate profits in the market is generally a positive factor, helping to raise investors' expectations for future market conditions.
Odaily reports: Trader Killa stated that Bitcoin bulls need to step in at the current range, otherwise BTC could face the risk of falling below $80,000 and undergoing further correction.Killa noted that BTC had previously broken above the upper boundary of its trading range and is now retesting whether that range structure remains valid. If the price falls back below the range and fails to reclaim it, it could signal that the prior breakout has failed and that the market structure is being compromised. The market has already experienced approximately $2 billion in liquidations, so there is no need to sweep lows again to seek liquidity. If another sharp decline occurs, it would instead reflect market weakness rather than a healthy correction.The current area around $80,000 is a key zone for BTC to continue its upward momentum, and bulls need to demonstrate buying support. If buying interest is insufficient, the recent defense of the $80,000 support may merely serve to attract funds into the range, after which the price could pull back toward the $76,000 to $78,000 area.
According to a report from Binance Research, since August 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 47 basis points to 5.22%, with 43 basis points driven by an increase in real yields (currently at 2.87%, peaking at 2.95% on October 5, the highest since 2008), while inflation expectations contributed only 4 basis points. Since the rate hike on September 16, leading market sectors have been highly concentrated: in equities, the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, led by semiconductors up 10.6%, while small-cap and bank stocks declined, and the equal-weight index remained flat; in crypto markets, Bitcoin gained 9.3%, Ethereum rose 2.7%, with Layer 2 (+32%), RWA (+29%), and AI tokens (+29%) leading the way, while Meme coins and payment tokens only advanced 5%. In terms of fund flows, net inflows into stocks on the Binance platform reached $169 million, with semiconductor-related inflows nearly quadrupling to $73 million, and Intel attracting $32 million in a single week despite a 12% drop in its stock price. Key focus areas ahead include the September CPI data (expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%) and the banking earnings season, which will serve as a key test of the current market landscape.
Lookonchain posted on X platform that on October 12, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of 127 BTC, valued at $10.49 million; the 7-day net outflow was 8,538 BTC, valued at $704 million. Ethereum ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of 25,400 ETH, valued at $64.22 million; the 7-day net outflow was 208,600 ETH, valued at $526 million.
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether US CPI data alters market expectations regarding interest rates and yields, and whether spot market buying follows through. This pullback is similar to previous adjustments during the earlier recovery phase, with no significant sell-off from holders whose cost basis lies within the original trading range. However, spot buying remains the current market's weakest link. The average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $84,340, and since the current price is below this level, some investors may choose to sell when the rebound approaches their cost basis. Analysis suggests that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it could dampen rate hike expectations and push yields down, creating upside room for BTC; if core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress risk assets. BTC may consolidate in the $81,300–$84,500 range in the short term. If the price breaks through and holds firmly above $84,500 alongside strong ETF fund flows, the market could retest the early-year opening level of $87,722; if it breaks below $81,300 accompanied by persistent capital outflows, it may further decline toward the true market mean level of approximately $77,400.
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Ember Monitoring, last week Bitcoin treasury company Strategy increased its holdings by 250 BTC, with a purchase amount of approximately $21.55 million and an average purchase price of approximately $86,194 per BTC.As of now, Strategy holds a total of 848,250 BTC, with a position value of approximately $70.532 billion. The cumulative average cost is $75,444 per BTC, with a current unrealized gain of approximately $6.536 billion and a return of approximately 10.2%.Meanwhile, Ethereum treasury company Bitmine increased its holdings by 12,532 ETH last week, with a purchase amount of approximately $32.6 million and an average purchase price of approximately $2,601 per ETH.Currently, Bitmine holds approximately 6,028,946 ETH, with a position value of approximately $15.319 billion. The cumulative average cost is $3,334 per ETH, with a current unrealized loss of approximately $4.781 billion and a loss of approximately 23.8%.In addition, Bitmine's subsequent ETH accumulation plan may be nearing a phased conclusion. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee previously stated at the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore that once the company's ETH holdings reach 5% of the total supply, it will stop further accumulation. Currently, Bitmine is still about 77,442 ETH away from the 5% target. Based on the recent pace of accumulation, it is expected to reach this target in about one month.
Odaily News: Trader Killa stated on X platform that Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) supply recently reached "overheated" levels, a situation similar to the price action in 2023 after the market broke away from the macro bottom, potentially serving as another signal of market bottom formation.Killa pointed out that after Bitcoin short-term holder supply reached similar highs in 2023, BTC price continued to rise and maintained an uptrend in higher timeframe (HTF) trends. The current market structure is quite similar to previous cycles, and investors should not overly rely on the Fear and Greed Index to judge market direction. Killa stated that market sentiment may remain irrational for extended periods, and short-term sentiment indicators do not necessarily reflect long-term trends.
Odaily News: According to Bitcoin News monitoring, the attacker behind the Ledger supply chain theft has moved nearly 3,000 ETH through Tornado Cash in three separate transactions, and transferred the funds into the Zcash privacy pool before converting them to USDC. Investigator @YFarmX stated that despite the use of privacy tools, they have traced 108 transactions completed through Zcash by exact value matching. An estimated $2.85 million in stolen USDC is still held in 3 wallets, and Circle may be able to freeze the related funds. Meanwhile, Tether is reported to have frozen $10 million in stolen USDT; wallets associated with the attacker still hold approximately $38.6 million in ETH and $16.9 million in BTC.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale sold another 229 BTC, worth $19.1 million, and subsequently bought 7,469.8 ETH, worth $19.1 million.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the market absorbed 220,374 BTC last week, while exchange net flows remained negative at -3,863 BTC.He noted that despite the relatively high volume of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, the net outflow data indicates that buy-side demand still outweighs sell-side pressure, suggesting that some funds are absorbing market supply.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin transaction fee revenue averaged 0.64% of miners' total revenue, down from 0.65% the previous week, and has remained below 1% since mid-August 2025. Miners' revenue still mainly comes from newly issued Bitcoin, with fees contributing limited support to profitability; although Bitcoin's price has rebounded from around $59,000 to $84,000, older mining machines still face significant profitability pressure at current electricity prices. The above costs only account for electricity expenses and do not include other expenditures such as mining machine purchases, cooling facilities, and maintenance. A fee revenue share below 1% does not directly mean that miners are shutting down operations on a large scale or selling off reserves.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, transaction fees accounted for an average of only 0.64% of Bitcoin miner revenue, down slightly from 0.65% a week ago and remaining consistently below 1% since mid-August 2025. This indicates that current miner revenue still relies primarily on block rewards, with fees providing limited support to profitability.
Benjamin Cowen posted on X that Bitcoin's weekly close above $83,000 means bulls remain in control, and bears still need to prove that market control has shifted. Cowen stated that based on his past experience, adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy in the second half of U.S. midterm election years is appropriate, a strategy that worked in both 2018 and 2022, and he hopes it will work again in 2026.
on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared AI-generated estimates on October 11, indicating a 1.3% probability that Bitcoin's digital signatures could be cracked within the next two years. The estimates addressed quantum computing as well as classical mathematical or AI-assisted cryptanalysis.Subsequently, researchers used approximately 4 AI models to assess the probability that Bitcoin's ECDSA and Schnorr signatures could be practically cracked within the next 2, 5, 10, and 20 years. ChatGPT-6 Astra gave a 20-year probability of approximately 76%, Claude approximately 66%, Grok 60%, and Deepseek 34%.All 4 models identified quantum computing as the primary long-term threat, estimating the related probability over the next two years at 0% to 2%. The models also noted that there is currently no practical classical cryptanalysis method for cracking secp256k1, and that improvements in AI capabilities alone have not produced any verified cryptanalytic breakthroughs. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale sold 410.14 BTC worth $34.16 million on Hyperliquid, and then bought 14,341 ETH worth $36.14 million on a DEX.