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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current market's unrealized profit proportion is 65.8%, below the historical average of 81%, while the unrealized loss proportion is approximately 34.2%, indicating that the overall market remains dominated by profitable holdings.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin short-term holders' realized pressure model has once again shifted to a buyer-dominated stance at a low point, mirroring the rebound pattern following the correction in February. The current buyer pressure score is approximately 30%, higher than the seller pressure of 22%. Seller pressure has compressed to a multi-month low, with coins transferring from short-term holders to stronger buyers, consistent with the characteristics of an accumulation phase.Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,900, near the lower bound of the short-term holder cost basis range around $61,600. This is about 4% higher than the latest buyer cost basis and nearly 10% lower than the comprehensive cost basis of $71,000. Adler Jr. pointed out that as long as the $61,600 lower boundary holds, the demand structure remains intact; if this level is lost, the newest holders will also fall into losses.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $95.31 million yesterday, with Fidelity (FBTC) recording an outflow of $63.25 million, Ark (ARKB) an outflow of $39.93 million, VanEck (HODL) an inflow of $5.36 million, Morgan Stanley (MSBT) an inflow of $2.17 million, and multiple ETFs including BlackRock (IBIT) recording zero flow for the day.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan has triggered market attention, it is not the core risk facing Bitcoin. The real structural threat lies in the fact that blockchain applications such as tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned chains (Permissioned Blockchain), rather than on public chains such as Ethereum. If this trend continues, the public chain ecosystem will face issues such as declining liquidity and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin valuations. The analysts also warned that the proliferation of bank-built blockchain infrastructure and tokenized deposits could undermine the position of stablecoins in institutional payments; regulated alternatives such as SWIFT's blockchain plan, the digital euro, and the digital yuan also constitute competitive pressure. However, the analysts also pointed out that if hybrid public-private chain models emerge, stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, or Bitcoin continues to be held as "digital gold", the aforementioned risks may be mitigated.
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, BlackRock transferred 951.5 BTC to Coinbase Prime, valued at $59 million.
According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet address bc1qw5 withdrew 500 BTC from Binance today, valued at approximately $31.15 million. The wallet had no prior transaction records.
Bitcoin and ether balances on centralized exchanges have fallen to multi-year lows. Analysts indicate that as a large amount of crypto assets have shifted to institutional custody, ETFs, DeFi protocols, and other on-chain uses, the reliability of this metric as a price signal has declined. At the same time, an increasing amount of Bitcoin and ether is being locked up by companies seeking long-term price appreciation. (CoinDesk).
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a whale has just closed a BTC short position worth $100 million, netting a profit of $5.28 million. The whale opened the short position on June 2 at $68,859 and closed it an hour ago at $62,314, holding the position for 36 days. The position size was 763 BTC, valued at $100.15 million, resulting in a realized profit of $5.28 million.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a newly created wallet belonging to a whale withdrew 500 BTC from Binance, valued at $31.15 million.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), the total net outflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday was $84.9 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $59.16 million, Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $14.88 million, and Grayscale's GBTC had a net outflow of $63.69 million; the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust recorded a net inflow of $52.83 million. Fund flows for other products remained basically flat for the day.
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
Odaily News, Strive Vice President Joe Burnett posted on X platform, stating that BTC's break-even annualization is often difficult to understand, and it's important to grasp why. The market generally holds three types of views on Bitcoin: Bullish Bitcoin investors believe Bitcoin will appreciate significantly; if they can borrow long-term capital at a cost below 20% and anticipate Bitcoin's future compound annual growth rate will exceed that level, they are willing to finance the purchase of more Bitcoin. Neutral Bitcoin investors require a much lower hurdle rate of return for Bitcoin. According to Michael Saylor's post, if Bitcoin grows by only 3.3% annually, they could sustainably pay current dividends through Bitcoin capital gains. This is a different bet from expecting Bitcoin to grow at a compound rate of over 20%. For context, the historical annual growth rate of the US dollar M2 money supply is around 7%. BTC is a scarce monetary asset with a long-term supply growth rate of 0%. Therefore, buyers of digital credit don't need to be extremely bullish on Bitcoin; they primarily need to believe that Bitcoin won't die out and will roughly keep pace with dollar inflation. This audience is much broader. Joe Burnett stated this might already be the current global consensus view on Bitcoin. Bearish Bitcoin investors can also express their views by shorting Bitcoin or shorting Amplified Bitcoin. Currently, capital has three clear ways to express its view: Bullish on Bitcoin can hold Bitcoin and Amplified Bitcoin; Neutral on Bitcoin can hold Digital Credit; Bearish on Bitcoin can short Bitcoin or Amplified Bitcoin. Every major capital allocator now has a Bitcoin-related tool matching their worldview, and this is how over $1 quadrillion in global capital begins to flow into Bitcoin.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 197 BTC today, with a 7-day net inflow of 1,244 BTC; Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of 12,193 ETH, with a 7-day net inflow of 52,319 ETH.
according to Arkham Intelligence monitoring, SpaceX recently conducted Bitcoin wallet activity for the first time in approximately six months. However, the transfers were extremely small in scale, and no BTC was sent to exchange addresses, indicating that the company is not selling Bitcoin.Data shows that three transfers were made from SpaceX-related wallets. The largest was 0.00213 BTC, valued at approximately $135; another transfer was 0.00139 BTC, worth about $89. Additionally, the Coinbase Prime custody service replenished 0.000738 BTC, worth around $47, to a SpaceX address, likely to cover on-chain transaction fees.Currently, SpaceX still holds approximately 18,712 BTC, with a total value of about $1.16 billion. Analysts believe that such small transfers are typically wallet maintenance operations, such as replenishing Gas fees, consolidating address funds, or testing signing processes, rather than typical asset-selling behavior.SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12, becoming one of the largest IPOs in history, and disclosed its Bitcoin holdings in a public filing for the first time. Previously, Arkham Intelligence could only track approximately 8,285 BTC belonging to SpaceX, but the company's disclosed holding of 18,712 BTC is more than twice the amount previously identified on-chain. According to the disclosure, SpaceX's Bitcoin purchase cost was approximately $661 million, with an average cost of about $35,000 per BTC.Six to seven months prior, SpaceX wallets had conducted a larger transfer, where the company moved approximately 1,000 BTC in batches between its own wallets and the Coinbase Prime custody address. However, that transfer similarly did not send funds to exchanges.Currently, Elon Musk's companies SpaceX and Tesla collectively hold over 30,000 BTC. The market generally believes that only if SpaceX transfers Bitcoin to known exchange deposit addresses in the future could it potentially signal an adjustment to its BTC treasury strategy or a potential sale. (CoinDesk)
Bitfinex Alpha 最新报告指出，Strategy 近期进行了首次大规模比特币出售，但市场表现出较强韧性，并未出现明显抛售压力，7 月走势目前保持积极。现阶段约 1083 万枚 BTC 处于未实现亏损状态，而约 922 万枚 BTC 仍保持盈利，市场尚无法完全判断投资者是否已经消化近期资金流变化，但现货交易量并未完全反映此前大规模资金流出的影响，因此可能接近熊市底部形成阶段。 随着 ETF 资产配置变化以及资金流重新转正，7 月比特币市场可能迎来新的变量。随着长期持有者及部分巨鲸重新积累，比特币正在从低信念持有者向更高信念投资者转移，未来 2至 3 个月可能成为确认阶段性底部的重要窗口。
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that currently about 40% of altcoin prices are in a range close to historical lows, reflecting that a large number of token issuance projects are facing significant pressure. His statistical criterion is: prices below 25% of their historical highs. When Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in late June, this ratio once rose to 45%.
Polymarket has integrated Spark, a Bitcoin Layer 2 payment protocol, allowing users to make instant deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.According to the report, Spark will provide underlying payment infrastructure for Polymarket, enabling users to deposit directly with BTC, with funds arriving in seconds. Compared to traditional on-chain Bitcoin transfers, which take 30 minutes to 1 hour for confirmation, this offers faster speed, lower costs, and greater privacy. This integration is also part of Polymarket's ongoing efforts to enhance the Bitcoin payment experience, following its earlier move to support Bitcoin deposits. (Digital Assets)
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), the total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday was $21.09 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $54.45 million; on the other hand, Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $24.92 million, and Ark's ARKB had a net outflow of $8.44 million. The fund flows for other products, including BITB, BTCO, EZBC, BRRR, HODL, MSBT, BTCW, GBTC, and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, were all zero for the day.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), whale address 0x77ee opened a 40x Bitcoin short position on Hyperliquid with a position size of 493 BTC, totaling approximately $31.08 million. The entry price was $63,240.9, the liquidation price is $73,859.9, and the current unrealized profit is approximately $111,400.