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According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will reenact its historical “Sell in May” pattern in 2026. In the two midterm election years—2018 and 2022—Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in May, falling approximately 30% and 70%, respectively. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warned that this historical pattern could repeat, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $33,000. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also noted that if Bitcoin remains persistently below $78,000, the likelihood of a new capitulation phase increases. However, Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, argued that past crashes stemmed from specific shocks—including the Mt. Gox incident, China’s ICO regulations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, and the collapses of Terra and FTX—not from calendar-based seasonality. He added that the launch of spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and progress on the CLARITY Act have significantly broadened the institutional buyer base, making a 70–80% deep correction unlikely this cycle. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $76,000 as the current critical support level; failure to hold it would likely trigger further downside pressure.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of approximately $76,720. Analysts attribute the market decline primarily to multiple macroeconomic pressures, including the renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, rising inflation concerns, and increased risk aversion across risk assets. Former US President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to Iran on social media, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.Meanwhile, rising oil prices have further elevated inflation expectations, with Brent crude climbing to around $111 and WTI rising above $107. This has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.The current selling pressure is also compounded by factors such as rising US Treasury yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ETF outflows. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1 billion in the week ending May 17, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows.In terms of market sentiment, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, re-entering the "fear zone." Analysts believe that short-term trends will remain highly dependent on macroeconomic data and policy expectations. However, some institutions view the current correction as a "healthy digestion" period, suggesting the long-term structure remains unchanged. (The Block)
: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
on-chain analyst Yujin posted on Platform X, stating that current market trading enthusiasm is now much lower than it was at the bottom of the last bear market (December 2022). This is despite the fact that prices of several major cryptocurrencies are still far higher than they were at that time.BTC: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BTC/USDT on Binance was around $20 billion. Now it is only about $5 billion. The current price is 4.5 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -38%.ETH: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for ETH/USDT was around $4 billion. Now it is only about $2 billion. The current price is 1.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -75%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -54%.BNB: At the last cycle bottom, the average daily trading volume for BNB/USDT was around $50 million. Now it is roughly at the same level. The current price is 2.7 times higher than the previous bottom. The correction magnitude last cycle was -65%, while from the peak to now in this cycle, it is -50%.
crypto research firm 10x Research stated that since the release of US CPI data on May 13th, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $1 billion, reigniting "inflation trade" sentiment in the market. Market sentiment indicators have dropped from 87% to 45%. Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.12%. As inflation returns to the forefront of market focus, the crypto market is facing significant headwinds.Furthermore, 10x Research noted that its models have triggered bearish signals for Ethereum, and Bitcoin is currently testing the key support level of its 30-day moving average. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal further momentum deterioration. The firm is closely watching the short-term bull/bear line at $79,125 and the major support level at $76,922, suggesting that the bottom for this cycle may have already formed.
According to Binance Research (@BinanceResearch), four on-chain metrics currently converge to indicate a sustained tightening of Bitcoin supply and an exhaustion of selling pressure: ① Nearly 60% of BTC supply has remained unmoved for over one year, with the supply dormancy rate holding at a historical high; ② The SLRV ratio is deep in its historical bottom range, indicating long-term holders dominate supply while short-term speculators have largely exited the market; ③ Exchange BTC balances have declined from their COVID-era peak of 17.6% to the current 15.0%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently flowing out of exchanges—resulting in the available seller supply hitting a six-year low; ④ BTC short-term holder MVRV has remained persistently below 1.0 since November 2024, continuously eroding selling pressure; recently, it has rebounded above 1.0, signaling that short-term holders are beginning to rebuild unrealized profits. Binance Research believes this combination of signals closely aligns with historical cycle bottom characteristics.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated Bitcoin has recently attempted to breach the $82,000 level three times, but each time it has faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking advantage of the uptrend to continuously exit with profits, rather than continuing to hold positions. Currently, $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong supply zone.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
Odaily Odaily News: Analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on X platform, stating that Bitcoin has been rejected at $82,000 again, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still failed to stay above 1.0, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rally. Currently, crude oil is near $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining elevated for a prolonged period.
Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy's largest bank, increased its crypto asset-related holdings from approximately $100 million at the end of 2025 to about $235 million in the first quarter of 2026.Specifically, the bank increased its holdings in the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and BlackRock's IBIT, and allocated to Ethereum assets for the first time through BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust, while also adding approximately $26 million in Grayscale XRP Trust ETF holdings.Furthermore, Intesa also established its first long call option position in IBIT and added 165,600 shares of BitGo stock, while liquidating its Bitmine-related positions. Its Solana-related allocations were significantly reduced, with holdings in the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF dropping from 266,300 shares to 2,817 shares.Reports indicate that Intesa has previously confirmed that these crypto assets are primarily used for proprietary trading. Last month, Ripple also announced that it would provide digital asset custody services for the bank. (Cointelegraph)
According to on-chain analyst Yujin’s monitoring, a whale that accumulated 807 BTC (worth $54.59 million) at a bottom price of $67,646 in February chose to take profits one hour ago—transferring 500 BTC (worth $39.04 million) to Binance.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale opened a 25x leveraged short position on ETH, amounting to 23,151 ETH worth $50.55 million; and also opened a 20x leveraged long position on BTC, amounting to 323.72 BTC worth $25.27 million. The ETH liquidation price is $2,288.33, and the BTC liquidation price is $70,325.36.
Market analyst Ali posted on X, stating that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of “overheating.” Data shows that traders’ average realized profit margin has risen to 17%, indicating that a large number of investors are now sitting on substantial profits, thereby increasing the potential pressure to take profits. A similar situation last occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin—while testing resistance at its 200-day moving average—also saw its average realized profit margin reach 17%; shortly thereafter, the market formed a short-term top and re-entered a downtrend. This historical signal has now re-emerged, warranting heightened market vigilance.
several sovereign wealth funds, universities, and traditional financial institutions have recently disclosed their 13F holdings for the first quarter of 2026.Among them, Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, increased its holdings in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) from 12.7023 million shares to 14.7219 million shares. The newly added holdings are valued at over $90 million, bringing the total value of its position to nearly $660 million. Meanwhile, its subsidiary, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), maintained its IBIT position unchanged at 8.2187 million shares, worth approximately $315.8 million.Regarding university funds, Harvard University's endowment fund held 3.0446 million shares of IBIT, valued at around $117 million, a reduction of about 43% compared to the end of 2025. Additionally, Harvard completely liquidated its position in the BlackRock Ethereum spot ETF, which was established last quarter and valued at approximately $86.8 million.Furthermore, Dartmouth College maintained its IBIT holdings unchanged and disclosed for the first time holding approximately 304,800 shares of the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, valued at around $3.67 million, making it one of the first university endowment funds to publicly allocate to a Solana-related ETF.On the traditional financial institution side, institutions such as the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Barclays continued to increase or adjust their IBIT-related spot and options positions, while Hong Kong-based Laurore reduced its IBIT holdings from 8.7863 million shares to 6.8463 million shares. (The Block)
According to The Block, several sovereign wealth funds, university endowments, and traditional banks disclosed their 13F holdings for Q1 2026: • Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, increased its position in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) from 12.7 million shares to 14.72 million shares—adding over $90 million—bringing its total holding value to approximately $566 million (a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter). Its subsidiary, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), maintained its IBIT position unchanged at 8.21 million shares, valued at approximately $316 million. • University endowments’ crypto ETF holdings remained largely stable. • Traditional financial institutions actively rebalanced their positions: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) increased its spot IBIT holdings while hedging with put/call options; Scotiabank sold off Trump-related Bitcoin stocks and added 214,000 IBIT shares; Barclays held approximately 4.46 million shares of spot IBIT and deployed a large options position; Hong Kong–based Laurore reduced its IBIT holdings from 8.78 million shares to 6.85 million shares.
According to CoinDesk, blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence reported that the wallet holdings of Bhutan’s sovereign wealth fund, Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), have sharply declined—from approximately 13,000 BTC in October 2024 to roughly 3,100 BTC as of now. Since mid-2025, over $1 billion worth of Bitcoin has flowed out of the wallet, with funds directed to multiple exchanges and trading firms—including wallets interacting with Galaxy Digital and OKX. In response, Ujjwal Deep Dahal, CEO of DHI, stated, “I don’t recall the last time we sold Bitcoin,” officially denying any Bitcoin sales. However, DHI did not clarify the specific wallet activity nor confirm its current Bitcoin holdings.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $290.45 million. Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day outflow of $136.28 million; Grayscale’s GBTC, $43.64 million; Ark’s ARKB, $52.48 million; and Fidelity’s FBTC, $39.59 million. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley, Invesco, VanEck, and WisdomTree all reported zero net flows for the day.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai_9684xtpa), a “die-hard bullish trader” has been long 80,000 ETH since April 30 from two addresses, with an average entry price of approximately $2,265 per ETH, resulting in a position value of $186 million—without any reduction in exposure throughout this period. As BTC dropped below $80,000, this position re-entered negative territory, currently showing a floating loss of about $2.9 million; at the market peak on May 11, however, the position had achieved a floating profit exceeding $8 million.
Bitcoin slumped shortly after the US stock market opened, briefly breaking below the $79,000 mark, with a daily decline of approximately 3%, trading near its lowest level since May. Market consensus suggests this pullback is closely linked to the sell-off in risk assets triggered by a surge in US Treasury yields.Data shows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.55%, reaching its highest level in nearly a year, fueling concerns over tightening liquidity and a reassessment of risk assets. Analysts point out that this level previously triggered adjustments in US stocks and policy expectations last year, and is now once again serving as a key pressure signal.Trading firm The Kobeissi Letter stated that the "panic-driven rally" in the bond market is intensifying, with expectations for prolonged high interest rates growing. The market has begun pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes in the future, quickly cooling the previous "euphoria" in risk assets.From a technical perspective, analysts believe that after encountering multiple rejections from resistance above $82,000, Bitcoin's support structure is weakening. In the short term, it may retest the $75,000–$77,000 range, as the market enters a phase of range-bound trading and directional selection. (Cointelegraph)
According to Odaily, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $80,350, up a slight 0.8% in the short term, facing sustained pressure after multiple failed attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level. This zone is considered a confluence of resistance from the ETF cost basis, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap fill area.Although the US CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional capital continues to withdraw. Data shows that the 7-day average net outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs has fallen to -$88 million per day, the largest outflow scale since mid-February. Analysts suggest this selling pressure is more driven by "profit-taking" than panic selling.On the macro front, rising US Treasury yields are a core source of pressure. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has climbed to approximately 4.52%, a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level in three years, further pushing back market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets.From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe the current ETF outflows represent portfolio rebalancing rather than a structural retreat. The options market indicates significant resistance for Bitcoin in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 stands as a key support level. If the price breaks below this zone without a cooling of leverage, the market could enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction. (Decrypt)