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Analysis: Altcoin Spot Market Selling Pressure Intensifies, Buy-Sell Volume Difference Hits Nearly Five-Year Low

CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech stated that data shows the altcoin market, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, continues to be under pressure. The cumulative buy-sell volume difference for altcoins in June has touched an extreme low not seen in nearly five years and is currently probing further lower, reflecting that the spot market remains dominated by continuous net selling. Since retreating from the highs in early 2025, selling pressure has not eased significantly, and the market has not yet shown clear signs of stabilization.

某聪明钱平仓 MU、SKHX 等多个空单,累计获利超 272 万美元

据链上分析师 Ai 姨(@ai_9684xtpa)监测,地址 0xa2 开头的聪明钱此前通过做多 $SKHX / $MU / $INTC 获利 415 万美元后,于 7 月 1 日转向做空,开启美光(MU)/ 海力士(SKHX)/ 闪迪(SNDK)/ 英特尔(INTC)/ BTC 一揽子空单,总持仓超 3,490 万美元。 今日凌晨,该地址已全部平仓止盈,累计获利超 272.7 万美元,其中美光空单更精准止盈于反弹前。近 30 天多空两轮操作总盈利超 529.3 万美元。

A newly created wallet withdrew 733 BTC from Binance in a single transaction, valued at approximately $45.18 million.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet address just withdrew 733 BTC from Binance, worth approximately $45.18 million.

10x Research: Active Buying from Long-Term Holders Helps BTC Form Short-Term Support, But Caution Still Needed on Cycle Lows

10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.

Data: Over 110,000 BTC Unusually Transferred Since June 29, Suspected Major Institutional Restructuring

According to on-chain analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) based on CryptoQuant data monitoring, since June 29 (Monday), a total of 113,483.30 BTC (approximately $6.97 billion) have been transferred on-chain. All transferred coins have a coin age exceeding 3 months, of which 22,921.26 BTC (approximately $1.41 billion) came from long-term addresses holding for over 2 years.

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.72 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund) data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.72 million yesterday, following 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows. Performance of each product is as follows: • Fidelity FBTC: +$165.96 million (largest inflow of the day) • Ark ARKB: +$91.84 million • VanEck HODL: +$4.35 million • BlackRock IBIT: -$40.43 million (counter-trend outflow) • Other products (Bitwise, Invesco, Franklin, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, Grayscale, Morgan Stanley): No fund changes for the day

Suspected Tim Draper-linked Wallet Deposits 1000 BTC into Coinbase Prime

According to monitoring by on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a wallet suspected to be linked to renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper deposited 1,000 BTC into Coinbase Prime 7 hours ago, valued at approximately $61.82 million, sparking market speculation of potential selling intent. It is reported that Tim Draper purchased approximately 29,656 BTC (all from seized Silk Road assets) at a U.S. Marshals Service auction in 2014 at a price of approximately $632 per BTC, with a total cost of approximately $18.7 million. At its historical peak, this batch of BTC was valued at $3.74 billion, and at current prices, it remains valued at approximately $1.82 billion.

A whale added to BTC and SOL long positions while shorting HYPE.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale has recently significantly increased BTC and SOL long positions, currently holding 1,072 BTC (20x leverage) valued at approximately $66 million, and newly opened 64,339 SOL (10x leverage) long positions valued at approximately $5.2 million; meanwhile, the whale also holds 106,994 HYPE (10x leverage) short positions valued at approximately $7.16 million.

JPMorgan: Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Policy Introduces “Avoidable Risk” to the Market

According to JPMorgan analysts, Michael Saylor’s Strategy recently officially launched a Bitcoin sale policy, transforming the company from a pure BTC buyer into a potential seller, introducing an “avoidable two-way risk” to the crypto market.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale policy, named the BTC Monetization Program, allows the company to sell Bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash reserves. These funds will be used to pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or to repurchase preferred and common shares, in order to optimize its capital structure.JPMorgan believes that Strategy’s potential future sale of BTC will increase market uncertainty and volatility regarding the price of Bitcoin. Analysts stated that if the company had instead supplemented its future dividend payment reserves by issuing equity, this risk could have been avoided.Strategy currently has a minimum cash reserve target covering 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, with its current cash reserves of $2.55 billion sufficient to cover approximately 17 months of dividends. JPMorgan believes the company should increase its cash reserves to cover 24 to 36 months of related obligations. Even if this results in the common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, it would provide greater assurance to investors that the company will not be forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term.

Today, US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 6,165 BTC, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of 21,568 ETH

according to Lookonchain monitoring, US Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of 6,165 BTC today, with a 7-day net outflow of 32,807 BTC; Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 21,568 ETH, with a 7-day net outflow of 54,411 ETH.

Approximately $30.85 Million of Clifton Collins' Bitcoin Moved, Sparking Speculation on Asset Ownership

according to Arkham monitoring, approximately $30.85 million worth of Bitcoin was transferred about half an hour ago. The funds are linked to addresses associated with Irish drug trafficker Clifton Collins, who had amassed over $400 million in assets through Bitcoin, with some funds later seized by police. Monitoring data shows that his related BTC funds have seen multiple large movements recently:March 24: Approximately $35.44 million worth of BTC was seized by Irish police and transferred to Coinbase Custody;May 19: Approximately $38.19 million worth of BTC was transferred to addresses associated with Wintermute / Binance;July 2: Approximately $30.85 million worth of BTC was transferred to Coinbase Prime Custody.

Analyst: Bitcoin’s downside risk is greater, selling call options offers better value now

: According to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 level. Currently, GEX is concentrated around the $60,000 mark. As prices repeatedly fluctuate around this key level, both call and put positions have accumulated at this point.However, put positions are currently distributed in the $55,000 to $60,000 range, with a vacuum zone below $55,000. If breached, there is significant room for a decline. Meanwhile, the area above $60,000 is where prices have repeatedly traded in recent months, with more evenly distributed positions. Overall, the downside risk is greater. Macro uncertainty, coupled with capital outflows from the United States, makes it difficult to support the cryptocurrency market. Currently, selling call options offers better value.

Analysis: Bitcoin Rebounds Above $61,000 as Long-Term Holders Re-Accumulate But ETF Outflows Persist

Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from 21-month lows hit earlier this week, showing signs of stabilization following a period of high volatility. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, extending the trend of capital exodus. June alone saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, marking one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF led with a single-day net inflow of $36.3 million.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders have re-entered an accumulation phase after an extended period of distribution, with buying pressure increasing from addresses holding 100–1000 BTC. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in a state of unrealized loss, surpassing the 9.22 million BTC that are in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that the Coinbase order book shows increased buying depth, and market makers' Gamma positioning is stabilizing, suggesting structural support is forming. However, the derivatives market remains cautious. The options market Put/Call ratio has risen to a one-year high, with implied volatility increasing, reflecting heightened demand for hedging. Meanwhile, long leverage exposure on Hyperliquid has climbed to a cyclical high, indicating diverging market sentiment.On the price structure front, Bitcoin briefly broke below $58,000 before repeatedly testing support. It currently remains below the critical Gamma Flip zone of around $68,000. The realized price of approximately $53,000 is viewed as a key structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, US non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, pushing back expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. The broader crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural competition. (The Block)

Hyperscale Data adds 67 BTC, total holdings rise to 849

Nasdaq-listed AI data center company Hyperscale Data, Inc. disclosed its latest Bitcoin holdings. The company added 67 Bitcoins between June 30 and July 1. After this increase, its total Bitcoin holdings have grown to approximately 849, continuing to advance its corporate Bitcoin reserve strategy. (Prnewswire)

Whales Shift to HOOD and Bitcoin, Avoiding Systemic Correction Risk in AI Infrastructure Chain

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, over the past hour, a whale chased the rise of HOOD with 10x leverage, with a position size of $1.12 million, an average price of $109.6, and a relatively aggressive liquidation price set at $103.6. Meanwhile, the address simultaneously opened a 25x leverage BTC long position with a size of $2.76 million and an average price of $60,494.

A newly created wallet opened a high-leverage long position on SOL, with a position value reaching $18.1 million.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a newly created wallet address 0xE06 deposited approximately 2.27 million USD Coin (USDC) and 21.14 Bitcoin (BTC), totaling approximately $1.27 million. Subsequently, the address opened a 20x leveraged long position on 230,583 Solana (SOL), with a position value of approximately $18.1 million, and still has open orders to further increase the SOL position.

Glassnode: BTC Long-Term Holders Resume Accumulation

According to Glassnode data, long-term holders—wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days—have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, indicating a recovery in BTC demand. Small and medium-sized wallets are leading a broad trend of buying the dip, while the largest whale wallets remain mostly neutral. Analysts say it is still too early to conclude that the market has entered a full accumulation phase. (CoinDesk).

Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million.

According to Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million yesterday. On the outflow side: BlackRock $IBIT saw an outflow of $219 million, Grayscale $GBTC saw an outflow of $62.79 million, Fidelity $FBTC saw an outflow of $51.02 million, and Ark $ARKB saw an outflow of $39.90 million. On the inflow side: Grayscale Mini $BTC saw an inflow of $36.33 million, Morgan Stanley $MSBT saw an inflow of $29.81 million, Invesco $BTCO saw an inflow of $5.37 million, Franklin $EZBC saw an inflow of $3.48 million, and VanEck $HODL saw an inflow of $2.13 million. Bitwise $BITB, Valkyrie $BRRR, and WisdomTree $BTCW had zero inflows and outflows for the day.

A certain smart money closed short positions on SanDisk and Intel for a profit of $448,000 and still holds over $22.34 million in long and short positions.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a smart money address (0x0a...) closed short positions on SanDisk ($SNDK) and Intel ($INTC) at 2 AM today, with a total position value of $13.41 million, realizing a profit of $448,000. The address established a basket of short positions on Micron ($MU), SK Hynix ($SKHX), SanDisk ($SNDK), Intel ($INTC), and BTC at 17:30 yesterday afternoon, with total positions exceeding $34.9 million; unrealized profits reached $1.742 million within four hours after the US stock market opened. Currently, the address still holds short positions on BTC, SK Hynix, and Micron worth over $22.34 million, with unrealized profits of $1.335 million.

Single transaction wipes out $4.96 million in profits; a trader's ETH short position and BTC long position have unrealized losses exceeding $5.5 million

Odaily reports, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader's ETH short position and BTC long position currently have unrealized losses exceeding $5.5 million. Over the past month, the trader completed over 100 trades with a win rate of 90%, earning $4.96 million in profit, but this single trade has erased all of those gains.