News linked to both this project and an event.
In a write-up by Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $463 million for the week ending September 14, marking the first negative reading since June's lows. ARK and Grayscale alone accounted for combined outflows of $371 million, while BlackRock remained flat. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% for the week to close at $76,838, making it the worst-performing asset, while Ethereum dipped 1.5% and altcoins collectively gained 1.0%. On the macro front, the US August CPI came in at 0.4% month-on-month (core 0.3%), exceeding the expected 0.2%, while the PPI annual rate hit 5.4%, prompting Goldman Sachs to upgrade its September rate outlook from "hold steady" to "increase." The market has now priced in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, ongoing escalation in Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude past $105/barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 20-year high. Wintermute stated that following the shift to negative ETF flows, it favors a neutral over a bullish market stance. Two key catalysts this week: ① On Tuesday, the US Senate will hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (Crypto Market Structure Act), which requires 60 votes to pass; ② On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. While the rate hike itself is already fully priced in, subsequent hawkish commentary (particularly any signals pointing to continued tightening into Q1 2027) could exert downward pressure on the crypto market.
Odaily News, According to Lookonchain monitoring, Wintermute received 2.5 million LAPTOP tokens from the LAPTOP team and is currently selling them on-chain. As of now, Wintermute has sold 466,255 LAPTOP tokens at an average price of $4.47, worth approximately $2.08 million.
据链上分析师 Ai 姨（@ai_9684xtpa）监测，Wintermute 于 21 小时前从 $LAPTOP 多签地址处收到 250 万枚做市代币，现已分发至多个交易所充值地址，或为新谈妥的做市合作。至此，$LAPTOP 真实做市代币总量确认为 2300 万枚，占总供应量的 2.3%，具体分配如下： • GSR Markets：1550 万枚 • G20：500 万枚 • Wintermute：250 万枚
Odaily News According to Lookonchain monitoring, an Ethereum OG whale sold 11,000 ETH through Wintermute an hour ago, worth $27.23 million.
Odaily News: Wintermute posted on X that the crypto market has rebounded over the past two weeks, with ETF inflows turning positive and stablecoin issuance stabilizing. However, to usher in a full new cycle, the market still needs new sources of capital. Historically, VC and ICO funding in 2017-2018, stablecoins in 2020-2021, and ETFs and digital asset treasury companies in 2024-2025 have all accelerated bull market cycles. RWA could become the next major liquidity channel. Data shows that stablecoin supply grew by over $120 billion within a single year; ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $63 billion, while digital asset treasury companies accumulated over $115 billion in holdings.In comparison, RWA attracted approximately $16 billion in capital over the past 12 months—only about one-tenth of the peak scale seen from ETFs and treasury companies in the previous cycle. However, the value of on-chain tokenized assets has roughly doubled within a year to over $30 billion, and this growth continued even during periods of stablecoin supply contraction.Wintermute believes that RWA capital initially flows into traditional assets such as Apple stock and U.S. Treasury funds, rather than directly into crypto assets. But once these funds enter the blockchain, the friction involved in rotating toward Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi is expected to decrease significantly. As the regulatory framework gradually becomes clearer and tokenized Treasuries and funds begin gaining acceptance as collateral on trading platforms and within DeFi, RWA could drive a market cycle that unfolds at a more moderate pace and lasts longer.
According to the weekly market report by Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, reiterating the 2% inflation target and pushing the probability of a September rate hike to 61.9%, making the September 15-16 FOMC meeting a key catalyst for risk assets. In cross-asset performance, 20+ year US Treasuries led gains (+1.01%), followed by altcoins (+0.61%), the S&P 500 (+0.47%), and the Nasdaq (+0.42%). BTC closed flat (+0.10%), while ETH (-0.86%), the Russell 2000 (-1.40%), gold (-3.42%), and Brent crude oil (-4.31%) were the weakest performers. In the crypto market, BTC digesting its previous 23% rally, encountered repeated rejections at the $82k resistance level. It reached an intraday high of $81k earlier this week, dipped below $78k following Warsh's remarks, and ultimately closed flat. BTC ETFs posted nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling $924 million, with a first-time single-day outflow of $202 million on Friday. ETH ETFs logged net inflows of $816 million this week, with no single-day outflows. SOL and XRP ETFs both set new 2026 weekly inflow records, reaching $154 million and $110 million, respectively. Strategy increased its position again on Monday, raising $2 billion, with approximately $16
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, Wintermute transferred 5,100 BTC to Binance over the past two days, valued at approximately $399 million.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), an address suspected of being affiliated with venture capital firm Hack VC (0x2a5…590CF) transferred 21.85 million ENA tokens to Wintermute's deposit address approximately 4 hours ago via multiple intermediary transfers, amounting to approximately $3 million at current prices.
According to tracking by on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), Wintermute is doubling down on shorts while transferring massive funds to Binance. Wintermute has injected millions of dollars into Hyperliquid, increasing short positions from $146.19 million to $190.77 million, with a current unrealized loss of $5.85 million. Top five short positions: ETH: $53.02 million; BTC: $30.66 million; SOL: $22.62 million; HYPE: $11.43 million; XRP: $10.19 million.
Odaily News: According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Wintermute transferred 129,500 SOL to Binance, worth approximately $12.42 million, along with 169.5 BTC worth approximately $13.11 million, likely for sale. Additionally, 407.47 BTC was transferred through an intermediate wallet before being moved to Coinbase, valued at approximately $31.36 million.
Odaily News: According to Onchain Lens monitoring, about 43 minutes ago, Wintermute deposited another 590.9 BTC, worth approximately $45.66 million, into Binance. This week, a cumulative total of 3,834.3 BTC, worth approximately $257 million, has been transferred to Binance.
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a certain address has transferred a cumulative total of 2,300 BTC to Wintermute's deposit address since June 25, with a total value of $142 million and an average deposit price of $61,813. The most recent transfer occurred 6 hours ago, valued at $50.72 million. The funds for this address originated from Paxos, and the ownership of the address has not yet been confirmed.
According to Odaily, despite spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $211.5 million on Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin remained largely flat, hovering around $64,000. Analysts believe this movement resembles the market being compressed into a low-volatility state, rather than signaling an impending sharp decline.On the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows of $53.8 million. In the broader macro market, the S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 7,737 points on August 4, the Nasdaq rose 2.6% driven by AI earnings, and Brent crude oil fell below $80 due to easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere stated that ETF buying entering the market but failing to push Bitcoin's price higher is itself a key signal, indicating that marginal buyers in the spot market are not truly one-sided bulls. He believes that for Bitcoin to sustain its recovery narrative, it needs a clear breakout above $65,000 in the short term.Overall, analysts are interpreting the current Bitcoin price action as a form of "boring bottoming": no obvious panic selling, yet lacking strong upward momentum. ETF inflows provide support, but the price remains suppressed below key resistance, suggesting the market is still waiting for a clearer directional catalyst.
According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week: On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility. On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July. On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
Amid geopolitical risks such as US airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin performed steadily overall, holding the key $62,000 level, indicating that market selling pressure has eased. Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recorded a combined net inflow of approximately $282 million, ending eight consecutive weeks of capital outflows. However, institutions believe this is more like a preliminary turning point signal and is not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
according to Arkham monitoring, approximately $30.85 million worth of Bitcoin was transferred about half an hour ago. The funds are linked to addresses associated with Irish drug trafficker Clifton Collins, who had amassed over $400 million in assets through Bitcoin, with some funds later seized by police. Monitoring data shows that his related BTC funds have seen multiple large movements recently:March 24: Approximately $35.44 million worth of BTC was seized by Irish police and transferred to Coinbase Custody;May 19: Approximately $38.19 million worth of BTC was transferred to addresses associated with Wintermute / Binance;July 2: Approximately $30.85 million worth of BTC was transferred to Coinbase Prime Custody.
According to Wintermute’s market weekly report, a significant macroeconomic shift occurred during the week ending June 22: The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but its statement adopted markedly tighter language—removing all references to accommodative policy. The median dot-plot projection rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, and 17 of the 18 FOMC members assessed inflation risks as skewed upward. The probability of a December rate hike surged from roughly 24% one month earlier to approximately 77%. Meanwhile, the Iran nuclear deal—originally scheduled for signing on June 19—collapsed following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, prompting Iran to withdraw from negotiations. Qatar is now attempting to extend talks until the end of June. With U.S. equity markets closed for Juneteenth, they failed to react promptly; crypto markets bore the brunt first—BTC peaked near $67,000 midweek before retreating to around $62,000, posting a weekly decline of 3.8%; ETH once again fell below $2,000, dropping into the mid-$1,700 range, down 1.2% for the week; over the weekend, approximately $600 million in long positions were liquidated, while less than $90 million in short positions were cleared—highlighting persistent leverage imbalance. Wintermute noted that the narrative of forced selling by “Strategy” players has dissipated (net BTC purchases totaled 1,587 BTC between June 8–14), yet marginal demand from both ETFs and Strategy participants has clearly weakened compared to prior periods. Capital inflow channels remain unopened, and the market is stabilizing primarily under light positioning and low leverage.
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
the OTC whale (0xFB7) has once again purchased 20,000 ETH from FalconX, worth $40.48 million, and sent 50 million USDT to Wintermute, possibly for further purchases. The whale currently holds 143,906 ETH, valued at $317.6 million.