Wintermute: Fed’s hawkish pivot weighs on crypto markets first; short-term range-bound volatility likely

According to Wintermute’s market weekly report, a significant macroeconomic shift occurred during the week ending June 22: The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but its statement adopted markedly tighter language—removing all references to accommodative policy. The median dot-plot projection rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, and 17 of the 18 FOMC members assessed inflation risks as skewed upward. The probability of a December rate hike surged from roughly 24% one month earlier to approximately 77%. Meanwhile, the Iran nuclear deal—originally scheduled for signing on June 19—collapsed following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, prompting Iran to withdraw from negotiations. Qatar is now attempting to extend talks until the end of June. With U.S. equity markets closed for Juneteenth, they failed to react promptly; crypto markets bore the brunt first—BTC peaked near $67,000 midweek before retreating to around $62,000, posting a weekly decline of 3.8%; ETH once again fell below $2,000, dropping into the mid-$1,700 range, down 1.2% for the week; over the weekend, approximately $600 million in long positions were liquidated, while less than $90 million in short positions were cleared—highlighting persistent leverage imbalance. Wintermute noted that the narrative of forced selling by “Strategy” players has dissipated (net BTC purchases totaled 1,587 BTC between June 8–14), yet marginal demand from both ETFs and Strategy participants has clearly weakened compared to prior periods. Capital inflow channels remain unopened, and the market is stabilizing primarily under light positioning and low leverage.