Wintermute: Institutional Buying Dries Up, Crypto Market Diverges from Stock Market

Wintermute stated that, as of May 25, BTC was trading at approximately $76,600 (down 1.5% weekly), while ETH traded at around $2,140 (down 1.7% weekly). Meanwhile, the U.S. equity market’s S&P 500 Index hit a new all-time high during the same period—highlighting a pronounced divergence between crypto and equities. BTC spot ETFs saw outflows of roughly $1.26 billion for the week, bringing cumulative outflows over two weeks to over $2 billion. Institutional buying—previously instrumental in driving BTC from $70,000 to $80,000—has clearly receded. The ETH/BTC ratio hit a fresh 10-month low, down 35% cumulatively from its August peak. On the macro front, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a historic low of 44.8, while the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.8%. NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue growth of 85% year-on-year and issued a Q2 revenue guidance of $91 billion—but saw virtually no after-hours reaction, suggesting AI-related trades are already fully priced in. Wintermute noted that BTC’s key support currently lies between $75,000 and $76,000; holding this range could enable a retest of $80,000, whereas a break below would rapidly open the $70,000–$72,000 zone. The near-term direction hinges on whether institutional capital returns to the market.