News linked to both this project and an event.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
on July 13, the Czech Ministry of Finance added Polymarket to its list of unauthorized internet gaming platforms, identifying it as an unlicensed gambling platform. Internet service providers are required to block access to the platform within 15 days. The Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation stated that Polymarket settles payments using the USDC stablecoin and operates as a decentralized exchange, without providing services through licensed local operators. The institute noted that several EU countries have recently restricted or blocked Polymarket; Italy has reinstated it on the blocklist, while the Netherlands has dismissed the platform's appeal. Separately, this month, the EU market regulator ESMA warned that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already prohibited from being sold to retail investors under existing binary options rules. Gibraltar has introduced a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets this week, while Malta has indicated it is exploring a similar regime. (Bitcoin.com News).
According to Bloomberg, prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking U.S. regulatory approval and plans to conduct margin trading operations in compliance. The company submitted an application to operate as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) to the National Futures Association (NFA) on July 3 through its subsidiary Coming Home GBA LLC. This move will allow users to participate in event betting with less capital and is expected to attract more professional traders to enter the market.
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. government, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal actions taken before December 31, 2026, will prevent the American public from accessing major Chinese AI models. Multiple departments within the U.S. Department of Commerce have already banned employees from using Deepseek on work devices due to data security concerns, and Virginia, Texas, and New York have also imposed Deepseek device bans on state employees. (Bitcoin.com News).
South Korea's media regulatory body will give Polymarket a chance to respond before deciding whether to take corrective action against its prediction market platform. The regulator is reviewing whether Polymarket's services constitute illegal gambling, which is prohibited under South Korean law. (The Block)
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
: Music streaming platform Spotify has deleted over 500,000 fake streams for the song "Earrings" by musician Malcolm Todd. The song had been pushed to the top of the charts. Spotify's investigation found that the stream manipulation was linked to prediction market betting activities, where traders on the Kalshi platform placed bets on which song would become the most-streamed track on Spotify in the US in June. The market had a trading volume of $3 million. Before Spotify completed its investigation, Kalshi declared Todd the winner and settled the market based on the manipulated data. After discovering the issue, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove their branding and clarify that there is no partnership between them. Kalshi stated it is cooperating with the investigation, while Polymarket has not responded.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will officially launch a Robotaxi service in California before December 31, 2026."If Tesla officially offers an autonomous taxi service to the public in California before the end of 2026 that does not require continuous human driver intervention, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No."Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi布局, but regional progress shows clear divergence. Currently, in parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), it has already conducted more aggressive unmanned mobility tests and planning, while in the California market, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger permits.At present, Tesla's operations in California are mainly limited to supervised autonomous driving features (FSD Supervised) and have not obtained a commercial Robotaxi license for fully unmanned operations. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely considered by the market to be prioritized for deployment in regions with more lenient regulations, leaving California's progress with high uncertainty.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.
According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies warned that as the path for the passage of the CLARITY Act in the Senate becomes increasingly narrow, the cryptocurrency market may face volatility risks. Data from prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the probability of the bill being approved before the end of the year has dropped significantly from 70% to 48%. The CLARITY Act is an important bill in the legislative process of the current U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework, and the uncertainty of its prospects is seen by the market as a potential bearish signal.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting" has dropped to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining the current interest rate" has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, and energy prices have surged due to tensions in the Middle East, keeping inflationary pressures alive, after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the June meeting, the market is leaning towards waiting for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. Key economic indicators to be released on July 14, including the US June CPI data, as well as employment and wage figures, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July meeting.The Odaily Seer Prophets Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
U.S. Republican Senator John Curtis and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff sent a letter on Thursday to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig, urging the agency to investigate prediction market platform Polymarket. The letter stated that Polymarket is suspected of paying social media influencers to film fake betting videos, using fraudulent marketing tactics to promote gambling-related products to U.S. audiences.Earlier reports indicated that Polymarket paid influencers to record fake trades on websites similar to its platform, and many creators did not disclose the fact that they were paid. A review found that 70% of over 1,100 videos contained fake bets, totaling nearly $2 million. Additionally, according to sources familiar with the matter, the CFTC is conducting an ongoing and extensive investigation into Polymarket. The senators have requested that the CFTC Chairman provide a written response on related issues by July 10. (cointelegraph)
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently launched an investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, and the investigation is still ongoing.Previously, including a lawsuit filed by a consumer protection organization accepted by the Washington High Court, Polymarket has faced multiple allegations of using paid endorsements on social media for misleading promotion, specifically targeting college students. A Polymarket spokesperson responded that the company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and is currently conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure compliance with standards and regulatory disclosure requirements. Additionally, over a dozen U.S. states have taken legal action against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting, while the CFTC has countersued some states, asserting exclusive jurisdiction. (FT)
several U.S. lawmakers are calling for an investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, citing concerns that its advertising may contain misleading content. According to reports, the lawmakers believe that Polymarket's marketing efforts may not have clearly disclosed the nature of its products and associated risks, potentially misleading users. Some legislators have requested regulatory bodies to assess the platform's advertising compliance and information disclosure standards. (WSJ)
According to market sources: Prediction market platform Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion, with daily trading volume soaring from $50 million to $200 million. (Sina Finance)
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.