News linked to both this project and an event.
digital asset management firm Grayscale stated in its latest report that the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain-based financial infrastructure platform. In the future, it may even challenge the traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems, growing into a "financial services giant."The report shows that Hyperliquid generated approximately $800 million in revenue in 2025, with a full-year perpetual contract trading volume of about $2.9 trillion and open interest of roughly $7 billion, capturing a significant share of the crypto derivatives market. Grayscale believes the platform is no longer limited to crypto trading. Through the HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, it is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets, gradually building a 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure.In another report, FalconX also pointed out that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges like the CME Group, as well as prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and is making progress in new markets like Pre-IPO.The report also emphasized that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for US users, as the regulatory framework gradually clarifies and institutions like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products, this sector may see broader growth potential in the future. (CoinDesk)
According to Fortune, U.S. prosecutors this week charged Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian software engineer at Google currently residing in Switzerland, with insider trading. Prosecutors allege that under the online alias “AlphaRaccoon,” Spagnuolo placed bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket—using internal Google search trend data—before the public release of Google’s “Search of the Year 2025” data, netting over $1.2 million in profits. The FBI identified Spagnuolo by tracing cryptocurrency payments. Google has suspended him and stated that betting using confidential information constitutes a serious violation of company policy. Spagnuolo is charged with violations of the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and money laundering, and faces potentially multiple years of imprisonment.
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "Will the U.S. federal government officially issue a $250 bill featuring Donald Trump’s portrait before December 31, 2026?"U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on May 28 that the official design for a $250 bill featuring President Trump’s portrait is ready, in anticipation of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. However, actual progress on the plan is currently blocked by stalled legislative procedures in Congress. According to H.R. 1761, introduced as early as February 2025, issuing this currency requires amending the Federal Reserve Act to authorize the new denomination and to waive the long-standing legal restriction prohibiting portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency. As the bill remains stuck in the House Financial Services Committee, with no substantial floor vote or progress in the Senate, the probability of completing legislation and printing the bill within the remainder of this year is low.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market—see the changes before the price is set.
According to Fortune magazine, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are attracting younger users through meme culture, humorous memes, and gamified design. These platforms enhance user engagement with features like leaderboards, badges, and comment-based interactions, while also lowering participation barriers—setting the minimum age for use at 18, below the 21-year-old legal gambling age in most U.S. states. Currently, only a small number of top users profit from Polymarket trading, while approximately 69% of users incur losses. Experts warn that young users, whose cognitive development is still ongoing, may develop a high-risk investment dependency. U.S. Senators Katie Britt and Richard Blumenthal have reportedly introduced legislation to restrict minors’ exposure to prediction market advertising.
Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, clarified in a post on X that the prediction market platform will not introduce mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) checks on its existing services. Stevens stated that KYC is only applicable to the early testing of a new Beta product for some users, and none of the existing products will require KYC as a result. The product will not require KYC after it exits Beta testing either. Polymarket currently faces access restrictions in several jurisdictions, including bans on users placing orders or only allowing position closures. In April, Brazil blocked 27 prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, while Spain's gambling regulator also restricted local users' access to Polymarket and Kalshi in May. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily Two executives from competing prediction market platforms clashed on X over KYC issues. The incident began when Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, refuted claims that the platform would fully implement KYC. In response, Kalshi's Head of Enforcement, @robertjdenault, cited relevant posts, arguing that Polymarket should have adopted KYC long ago. He claimed that Russians and Iranians were trading freely on the platform, and insiders were also using it wantonly. He added that if Polymarket truly wanted to prevent this, it should either bring all operations into compliance (starting with KYC) or shut down.In response, a Polymarket official, Mustafa, called the Kalshi executive an "idiot" in the comments under the post.
the General Directorate for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ), under Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, has ordered internet service providers to temporarily block access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.Regulators believe that the two platforms, without obtaining Spanish gambling licenses, offer local users prediction trading products based on the outcomes of future events, which may violate local gambling laws. Spanish authorities stated that unlicensed platforms lack necessary consumer protection measures such as identity verification, minor protection, and self-restriction mechanisms.According to reports, the related investigation is expected to last 3 to 4 months. During the investigation period, Spanish users will see a risk warning when accessing the relevant websites. Regulatory authorities may subsequently adopt measures such as fines, permanent restrictions, or requiring the platforms to apply for local licenses. (crowdfundinsider)
in response to The Information's report on "Polymarket planning to require users to complete KYC due to compliance pressure," Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, responded that the report is not true.Josh Stevens stated that Polymarket is currently testing a new beta product, and KYC verification is only required for some trial users during the testing period. There is no new KYC requirement added to the existing Polymarket website.He further stated that once the testing period for this product ends, users will no longer need to undergo KYC to use it.
: The U.S. Department of Justice has indicted Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo for allegedly exploiting confidential internal Google information to trade on prediction markets via Polymarket, illegally profiting approximately $1.2 million.According to the indictment, Spagnuolo, operating under the account name "AlphaRaccoon" on Polymarket, placed bets totaling over $2.7 million related to Google's "Year in Search 2025" rankings. He is suspected of obtaining advance access to Google's internal data on the most searched personalities to guide his trading decisions.U.S. prosecutors stated that his actions allegedly violated his fiduciary duties to his employer and constitute insider trading. Google confirmed that the employee has been suspended and is cooperating with law enforcement authorities. Polymarket stated that it has cooperated with U.S. prosecutors and the CFTC, noting that blockchain transactions are transparent and traceable. (TechCrunch)
According to The Block, the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has received the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) proposed rulemaking notice on prediction markets and is currently reviewing it. The CFTC stated it will provide further details after the interagency review process concludes. Recently, Trump publicly endorsed CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s position that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Over the past year, the CFTC has consistently reinforced its regulatory claims over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits against five states—Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York—seeking to restrict Kalshi and Polymarket. TD Cowen believes Trump’s statement is unlikely to alter the legal dispute surrounding this matter in federal court.
as anticipation builds for several potential major IPOs, "prediction market trading" centered around high-profile pre-IPO companies is rapidly heating up, with users betting on pre-IPO performance through prediction contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become primary channels, allowing users to engage in "yes/no" contract trading on key metrics such as valuation ranges and listing timelines. Prices are quoted in cents, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct.Given that ordinary investors cannot directly participate in equity investments in popular private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before their IPOs, prediction markets are converting related expectations into tradeable, event-driven assets.Analysts believe that as the window for potential "mega IPOs" approaches, prediction markets are leveraging public sentiment and capital attention to turn IPO narratives into short-term volatility opportunities on both on-chain and compliant trading platforms, further expanding their influence in financial speculation and information pricing. (The Information)
: Prediction market Polymarket is facing increased pressure from regulatory and sanctions compliance. It is reported that the platform is pushing traders to undergo identity verification (KYC) to mitigate potential legal and compliance risks.Although Polymarket's betting platform rules do not permit such activities in certain regions, some users have still been participating in market trading through automated trading bots and other methods, forming gray usage pathways in areas such as Russia. Some developers have even utilized tools like Telegram to organize trading traffic and expand their user base. As the platform scales and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, Polymarket is being forced to seek a balance between the decentralized prediction market model and compliance requirements to address potential sanctions and legal risks. (The Information)
the Spanish government is taking action to block Polymarket and Kalshi, stating that the two prediction market platforms are operating in the country without obtaining gambling licenses, allegedly violating the law. Spain's consumer affairs department stated that it has issued preventive blocking orders targeting the websites of Polymarket and Kalshi. Officials will investigate suspected violations of gambling laws, with the relevant procedures expected to last three to four months.The Spanish Gambling Regulatory Authority stated that when prediction platforms allow users to place bets on uncertain outcomes, they carry gambling risks, and companies seeking to offer such services require specific administrative licenses. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi have not responded to requests for comment. (WSJ)
According to Reuters, Indonesia’s Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs announced on May 25 that it had blocked the prediction market platform Polymarket for violating online gambling regulations. Prior to this, on May 21, the platform launched betting on when Indonesian President Prabowo would “step down early,” drawing widespread attention across Indonesian social media. The Indonesian government stated that Polymarket’s activities “involve wagering and speculative behavior on uncertain events,” contravening local laws, and has begun reviewing all social media accounts associated with the platform.
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
OdailyOdaily Planet Daily News Some career officials at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) were purged after raising compliance concerns about Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Gemini Titan, all of which are alleged to have business ties to the Trump family.The report states that then-acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham and Senior Legal Advisor Brigitte Weyls intervened in the relevant review process, helping these companies obtain approvals or avoid further investigations. The two later joined MoonPay and Gemini Titan, respectively.It is understood that the officials in question had previously expressed concerns that Crypto.com was not treating small retail investors fairly, that Polymarket's anti-fraud mechanisms were insufficient, and that Gemini Titan had not completed the review required for its launch.Furthermore, the report notes that during Trump's second term, the CFTC has dropped at least five crypto investigations and has only made public two enforcement cases involving digital assets, both targeting individual operators. In contrast, there were over 80 such cases during the Biden administration. (The New York Times)
Odaily Odaily報道， multiple senior officials at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) who had raised compliance concerns regarding prediction market platforms were subsequently suspended, subjected to internal investigations, and ultimately forced to leave their positions. The report states that these officials had expressed concerns about the following companies: Polymarket lacking adequate anti-fraud mechanisms; Crypto.com not treating small bettors fairly; and a Gemini-affiliated company having not yet completed necessary regulatory reviews.The investigation noted that all the aforementioned companies are believed to have business ties with the Trump family. Sources said that the then-acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham and her senior advisor intervened to help these companies secure regulatory approvals.As of the end of 2025, two officials who raised the questions were placed on administrative suspension and subjected to internal investigations, while three other officials responsible for crypto enforcement faced similar treatment, none of whom were informed of the specific reasons. The report suggests this has created a signal within the CFTC to "avoid creating trouble for the relevant industry."The CFTC significantly scaled back crypto enforcement during the Trump era: the agency initiated over 80 crypto enforcement actions during the Biden administration, but only two during the Trump administration, both targeting individual operators rather than large corporations. Furthermore, Caroline Pham left the CFTC to join MoonPay, which has a partnership with Polymarket; her former senior advisor, Brigitte Weyls, joined Gemini Titan as General Counsel. The current CFTC Chair, Michael Selig, previously worked as a corporate lawyer for several crypto companies. (Cointelegraph)
Kalshi and Polymarket have lost their bid to block gambling-related lawsuits filed by the states of Nevada and Washington. A panel of the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals stated that federal derivatives regulation does not automatically shield prediction market platforms from enforcement of state gambling laws.The appeals court rejected the companies' request to halt the remand of the disputes back to state courts, with the judge stating that Kalshi and Polymarket failed to prove their claim that the cases fall under federal jurisdiction. This ruling deepens the legal divide over whether sports event contracts offered by prediction market companies are federally regulated derivatives or illegal gambling products under state law. (financefeeds)
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected requests from Kalshi and Polymarket, allowing gambling-related cases against the two prediction market platforms in Nevada and Washington state to move forward, and remanded the cases to state court.The court ruled that the two companies failed to demonstrate that the cases should be under federal court jurisdiction. The platforms' assertion that the Commodity Exchange Act has preemptive effect is not sufficient to automatically establish federal jurisdiction.Kalshi and Polymarket previously argued that contracts on events such as sports and politics are federal derivatives regulated by the CFTC, and that states have no authority to enforce gambling laws against them. However, Nevada and Washington state contend that such contracts constitute unlicensed gambling products.This ruling highlights a growing divide among U.S. courts over whether prediction markets qualify as federally regulated swap contracts or as illegal gambling products under state law.
According to CNBC, James Comer, Chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, has launched an investigation into prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding that both companies detail their measures to prevent insider trading—including identity verification, enforcement of geographic restrictions, and mechanisms for detecting anomalous trading activity. Comer stated that internal records from these platforms are critical for identifying improper traders and assessing whether the platforms have fulfilled their legal obligations. Previously, Polymarket was reported to have hosted suspicious trades related to U.S. actions concerning Iran and Venezuela; Kalshi had also suspended the accounts of three congressional candidates who placed bets on their own election outcomes. Comer has directed both companies to submit the relevant documents by June 5.