News linked to both this project and an event.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has been accused of paying dozens of creators, mostly of college age, to film betting videos on pages closely resembling its website, with some videos also showing fabricated profits. A review of 1,105 videos posted by 10 creators since December found that approximately 70% contained betting content, and the roughly $1.9 million in wagers displayed were not real transactions. One video released in January showed college student George Makihara celebrating a $100,000 win from betting that Donald Trump would say "McDonald’s" that month. However, the footage was reportedly filmed two months early; Trump did not publicly utter the word in January of that year, and over 50 real accounts betting on the same event on Polymarket all incurred losses. Some creators entered trades on test pages, including the misspelled domain "poiymarket.com," which were allegedly built by Polymarket or used for engineering test environments. In 118 videos, creators displayed nearly $900,000 in fictitious gains, while these bets would have resulted in losses of over $166,000 based on actual outcomes. Creators received approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per month and were instructed not to disclose the collaboration arrangement. Polymarket stated it is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of promotional content. (Decrypt)
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platform Polymarket is accused of hiring paid content creators to post a large number of deceptive “profit showcase” videos on social media—where all claimed earnings are fabricated. An investigation revealed that in one video, a college student claimed to have won $100,000 on Polymarket by betting on “Trump publicly mentioning McDonald’s,” but the reported profit was not real.
sources say prediction market platform Kalshi has disclosed it is engaging in early, informal discussions with investment banks regarding a potential IPO. A Kalshi spokesperson declined to comment.Previously, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against five prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of running unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling platforms. At least 17 other states have also taken prediction market operators to court. The related disputes involve the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over event contracts. (Cointelegraph)
Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for "SpaceX Starship First Launch Date from Florida."To date, all integrated test flights of Starship have been conducted at Starbase in Texas. SpaceX is currently building Starship launch and manufacturing facilities in Florida, including a Starship launch tower at Kennedy Space Center's LC-39A, and renovation work at Cape Canaveral's SLC-37. Relevant projects still require regulatory approval, environmental assessments, and infrastructure construction.SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a CNBC interview in June 2026 that the company expects Starship Flight 13 to launch in about a month and plans to gradually achieve a monthly Starship launch cadence. She also mentioned that future missions could include Starship's first-ever launch from Florida.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to follow the prediction market—seeing changes before pricing.
According to CoinDesk, the Kentucky Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting services without proper licensing in the state. The complaint also alleges that the relevant platforms and their partners failed to provide gambling addiction support resources as required by state law.
: Kalshi, a U.S. compliant prediction market platform, has entered into a strategic partnership with financial compliance service provider StarCompliance. The collaboration aims to offer real-time trading monitoring services for employee Kalshi accounts at various financial institutions, directly addressing a core compliance pain point in the industry.As the popularity of prediction markets rises, financial institutions are increasingly concerned that employees might leverage internal non-public information to trade for profit on platforms like Kalshi, posing regulatory risks of insider trading. With this partnership, StarCompliance's compliance system will connect to employees' Kalshi accounts under institutional management, automatically identifying and flagging abnormal or suspicious trading activities. This will help financial institutions conduct internal risk control and regulatory compliance self-assessments.According to StarCompliance, the current system only offers real-time transaction monitoring. In the future, they plan to add a pre-trade approval module and expand service coverage to blockchain-based prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. This will comprehensively cover mainstream event trading channels and enhance institutions' full-scenario employee trading control systems. (.barrons)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract associated with the club saw a rapid surge in trading volume, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025-2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be using "reverse betting" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in predictive market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed a bet on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed it had purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through brokerage firm Howden. Kalshi, for its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risk within a prediction market: the insurance broker bears the hedging risk, rather than the club directly engaging in transactions, describing the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.Notably, despite suffering a loss in a crucial match, Osasuna ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its rivals failed to surpass them in points.The incident has also sparked debate over the boundaries of prediction market use cases: it is evolving from a speculative tool into a real-world risk hedging instrument, potentially playing an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.Meanwhile, the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched a regulatory investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms for operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for the opening price range of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.SpaceX is scheduled to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 (U.S. time). According to its compliance filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official IPO price has been set at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, institutional oversubscription orders are reportedly exceeding $10 billion, fueling market expectations for a premium from the "first-day pop." However, given the high valuation multiple of 90 times price-to-sales and intense competition in the rocket launch market, the first-day opening premium may be relatively moderate. Under the event's settlement rules, the market will strictly settle based on the official opening price of SpaceX on its first trading day on the primary exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the boundary between two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement.Odaily Seer remains focused on prediction markets. See the change before the price is set.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, was reportedly found to have paid content creators at least $350,000 through his personal PayPal account between January 2025 and February 2026, to promote Polymarket and its prediction market data.Reports indicate that Modabber transferred over $2.5 million to more than 800 individuals over 14 months. According to a Politico investigation, at least 20 influencers who received payments subsequently posted approximately 490 pieces of content related to Polymarket on social media platform X, with the majority failing to clearly disclose the paid partnership.Creators involved include conservative commentator Alex LoRusso, political commentator Brian Krassenstein, and Fox News contributor Riley Gaines. The related posts often described Polymarket's odds changes as "BREAKING" news or event bellwethers, aiming to reinforce the public perception of the platform's predictive accuracy.A Polymarket spokesperson responded that collaborating with content creators is a standard marketing strategy for the company, intended to provide global users with "the most accurate, transparent, and data-driven market insights." However, the company did not address questions regarding why personal accounts were used for payments or whether the related promotions complied with disclosure requirements.The report notes that following Trump's election victory, interest in prediction markets surged, and Polymarket's trading volume grew rapidly. As the platform seeks to re-enter the U.S. market, it is expanding its brand influence through social media and opinion leaders, while also facing scrutiny over information disclosure, market influence, and regulatory compliance. (Politico)
According to The Korea Business, South Korean police are investigating domestic users of Polymarket—the world’s largest prediction market platform—for alleged violations of Article 246 of the Criminal Act (gambling offenses), which carries a maximum fine of KRW 10 million. This investigation—led by the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency upon delegation from the National Police Agency—is the first criminal probe targeting Polymarket users in South Korea, covering users nationwide. It is reported that South Korean users placed bets on the platform using USD-pegged stablecoins, with no restrictions imposed by the platform; for instance, the June 3 local elections alone attracted hundreds of billions of won in betting volume.
: Nine Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives have called on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate prediction markets, reviewing whether their advertising campaigns are consistent with the statements they make to regulators. Representatives Kevin Mullin and Gabe Vasquez stated that prediction market platforms present themselves to regulators as financial instruments offering investment products, yet advertise to the public as gambling platforms. This contradictory information could mislead consumers.The lawmakers have requested that the FTC provide a detailed response by June 29 on whether it plans to launch an investigation or take enforcement action against prediction markets. Prediction markets have recently come under scrutiny over insider trading issues, and Congress launched investigations into Polymarket and Kalshi in May. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket believes competitor Kalshi may have engaged in industrial espionage targeting its New York office and employees. Polymarket's marketing head confirmed the company is conducting an internal investigation, stating there are "too many coincidences" and suspecting Kalshi of malicious intent.According to reports, Polymarket has internally compiled a file named "The Imitators," documenting approximately a dozen suspicious incidents. These include Polymarket's original plan to launch a free grocery pop-up event on February 12, while Kalshi launched a similar event approximately nine days earlier. Additionally, Polymarket was scheduled to announce its perpetual contract product plans on April 21, but about an hour before the announcement, tech media outlet The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing to launch a similar product.Polymarket employees are also concerned that the office of venture capital firm Paradigm, which supports Kalshi, is located directly opposite their workspace, potentially allowing for monitoring of employees' computer screens. It is reported that Polymarket installed window film on some office windows this spring.In response, a Kalshi spokesperson denied all allegations, calling Polymarket's suspicions "pathetic and bordering on delusional." (New York Post)
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Anthropic to IPO before September 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 30%, a 24-hour decline of 37%. Additionally, the probability of "Anthropic to IPO before December 31" is currently reported at 89%.On June 1, Anthropic announced that it had confidentially submitted a U.S. IPO application, moving ahead of competitor OpenAI in the listing process. In a statement, Anthropic said filing the prospectus "gives us the right to choose to go public after the SEC completes its review" and emphasized that "the proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors."According to media reports, Anthropic's listing could be as early as this fall, but it has not disclosed the offering size or terms.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction market titled "June world is peaceful and uneventful." Currently, the probability of something major happening (Something) stands at 14%, while the probability of nothing happening (Nothing) is reported at 86%.Traders believe there is an 86% likelihood that the market will see "no major progress" in June, as no significant diplomatic or policy breakthroughs appear imminent in the initial weeks.If any of the following conditions are met between the market creation and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (US):- WTI crude oil price breaks through $150;- The U.S. confirms the existence of extraterrestrials;- The Federal Reserve decides on any policy adjustments in June;- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine;- Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.Then the market will be settled as "Something"; otherwise, it will be settled as "Nothing."Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.
According to The Block, Strategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, generating approximately $2.5 million in proceeds to pay dividends on its preferred stock. This marks the company’s first Bitcoin sale since December 2022. The disclosure sparked controversy in a Polymarket prediction market—valued at over $20 million in trading volume—that had asked whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin before May 31. The dispute centers on whether the sale qualifies: “Yes” proponents argue the sale occurred before the deadline; “No” proponents contend the information was not publicly disclosed before the market closed and therefore should not count. The market has now entered its final review phase. Polymarket added that “results confirmed outside the deadline will not be recognized,” leaning toward the “No” side. If the dispute escalates further, UMA token holders will vote to resolve it—but prior reports indicate UMA voting power is highly concentrated, with over 60% of active voters linked to Polymarket accounts, raising concerns about impartiality.