News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily. Bernstein stated in its latest research report that the newly reached compromise on stablecoin yields under the U.S. CLARITY Act is structurally beneficial for Circle and the USDC ecosystem.The report notes that the current version of the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest to passive holders that is "economically equivalent" to bank deposits, but allows reward mechanisms tied to actual transaction, payment, and usage activities to continue. Bernstein believes this means Circle's current model, which relies on partners like Coinbase to provide USDC reward programs, will gain regulatory recognition, while also limiting the industry's ability to compete for market share through high yields.Bernstein points out that the bill effectively reinforces the positioning of stablecoins as "payment tools" rather than "deposit substitutes," helping to protect Circle's current business model that relies on reserve income. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating for Circle with a $190 target price.Data shows that the total global supply of dollar-pegged stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC collectively accounting for approximately 97% of the market share. Bernstein notes that USDC's share in on-chain payments and wallet transfers is steadily increasing, and its share of payments in the AI Agent payment protocol x402 has exceeded 99%.Additionally, Bernstein mentioned that Circle's ARC chain has cumulatively completed 244 million testnet transactions. The ARC token pre-sale previously raised $222 million, with investors including a16z crypto, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, and BlackRock.However, the report also points out that the CLARITY Act still needs to complete multiple legislative procedures before it takes effect, including a 60-vote threshold in the full Senate and coordination with the House version. Polymarket currently estimates its probability of passage by 2026 at approximately 62%. (The Block)
Odaily Despite warnings and related bans issued by the Indian government, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket still allow Indian users to register and trade.According to reports, India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology stated in a letter last month that Indian users are still accessing "illegal and already blocked prediction markets and online entertainment platforms." The relevant announcement was subsequently published on the ministry's official website, specifically naming "Polymarket and other similar websites," stating that these platforms should have been blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs). (Bloomberg)
According to Bloomberg, last month India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology warned that prediction markets such as Polymarket and online gambling platforms are illegal and should be blocked. Nevertheless, Polymarket and Kalshi continue to allow Indian users to register and participate in trading. In an official notice posted on its website, the relevant Indian government department stated that users can still access these “illegal and blocked platforms,” despite domestic bans already being in place, and instructed internet service providers to cut off access.
Turnkey, a company specializing in crypto wallets and key management infrastructure, has announced the completion of a $12.5 million strategic financing round. Archetype and Circle Ventures led the round, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Bain Capital Crypto, Lightspeed Faction, Galaxy Ventures, and Variant. The project's total funding has now exceeded $65 million.The company's primary business involves developing wallet and key management infrastructure for crypto applications. This round of financing will be used to support the development and public launch of Turnkey Verifiable Cloud, a product focused on digital asset security computing. This product aims to provide enterprises with verifiable operating environments, encompassing functionalities such as transaction visibility, policy decisions, and agent-driven wallet activities. Turnkey's current clientele includes Polymarket, World App, and Anchorage Digital.
According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus curiae brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, supporting Kalshi’s appeal in its litigation against Ohio and asserting that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s regulatory jurisdiction. The CFTC stated that Ohio’s prior demand that Kalshi cease offering sports-event contracts constituted “jurisdictional overreach.” The CFTC warned that if states were permitted to restrict sports-event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCMs), the CFTC’s long-standing regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be undermined. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, supporting prediction market platform Kalshi and pushing back against a lawsuit previously filed by the state of Ohio.Ohio argues that Kalshi's prediction market operations constitute unlicensed sports betting, while the CFTC contends that these markets fall under federal regulatory authority and that states have no right to overstep those boundaries.CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the Ohio district court's previous interpretation of the CFTC's jurisdiction was "too narrow" and hopes the appellate court will correct this.Over the past few months, the CFTC has sued states including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York to defend its regulatory authority over prediction markets. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gain increasing popularity, the dispute over the regulatory boundary between federal and state governments continues to widen.
Trump Media & Technology Group is significantly adjusting its strategy for the prediction market product "Truth Predict." The project, originally planned to launch full trading functionality in partnership with Crypto.com, may now only materialize as a marketing and promotional collaboration, with a notable contraction in the scale of its features.According to the latest regulatory filings, the project is still under development. However, the initial phase will be limited to a promotional partnership with prediction market platform OG.com, rather than embedding trading functions directly within Truth Social. The market's initial vision of an integrated "social + prediction market trading" model appears to be diminished.Earlier plans indicated that Truth Predict intended to allow users to convert platform credits into crypto assets and participate in trading events related to sports, inflation, and elections. However, the newly disclosed structure leans more towards an "external platform traffic-redirecting partnership," with specific commercial mechanisms yet to be clarified. Meanwhile, the prediction market industry is experiencing rapid expansion alongside regulatory conflicts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to expand their sports and event contract businesses, but are also facing jurisdictional disputes between state-level gambling regulators and federal authorities.Analysts suggest that the strategic downsizing of Truth Predict reflects the increasing uncertainty surrounding compliance structures, product forms, and regulatory boundaries for prediction markets. Particularly against the backdrop of an as-yet-unified U.S. regulatory system, related products are trending towards "asset-light cooperation" models rather than direct financial integration into social platforms. (Wired)
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According to Decrypt, MoonPay has announced the acquisition of AI trading startup Dawn Labs and officially launched its AI-native trading product, Dawn CLI. This platform enables users to build and execute automated trading strategies via natural language prompts—no development or quantitative trading expertise required. Initially, the product supports the prediction market platform Polymarket, with plans to expand to additional trading platforms and asset types. Dawn CLI employs a local, non-custodial wallet and auditable strategy code to mitigate potential risks associated with AI agents executing trades. This acquisition marks MoonPay’s latest move in building AI infrastructure, following its earlier launch of the stablecoin debit card MoonAgents Card for AI agents, an open-source wallet standard, and its acquisition of crypto key management firm Sodot.
C1 Fund, a closed-end fund listed on the New York Stock Exchange, has released its Q4 and full-year financial reports for 2025. Its digital asset private investment strategy continues to expand, with portfolio optimization and liquidity events advancing simultaneously.As of the end of 2025, CFND's digital asset infrastructure investment portfolio includes industry-leading companies such as Alchemy, Blockchain.com, Chainalysis, Consensys, Figment, Kraken, and Ripple, covering core sectors including blockchain development, compliance analytics, trading platforms, and cross-border payments. In 2025, the fund made new investments exceeding $10.47 million in projects like BitGo, Fireblocks, and Polymarket (Blockratize Inc.), and completed additional allocations to holdings such as Ripple, further strengthening its deployment depth in the digital asset infrastructure space. (Businesswire)
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in Polymarket's prediction event "Will the US confirm the existence of aliens before 2027?", a new account purchased $61,000 on the outcome that the US will not confirm the existence of aliens before 2027, with an opening price of 83¢.Public documents primarily involve records of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) sightings and investigations, but have not officially confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology. The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has previously denied claims by some whistleblowers regarding the government's secret possession of alien technology, including related testimony from David Grusch in 2023.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
According to The Information, Polymarket—four years after exiting the U.S. market—is attempting to re-enter the domestic market by acquiring a U.S.-licensed derivatives and futures exchange, thereby rejoining the regulated framework, and has appointed Justin Hertzberg to lead its U.S. operations. However, recent developments indicate that Polymarket’s U.S. business progress has fallen short of expectations, with its market share significantly trailing that of its main competitor, Kalshi. Reportedly, within the company, Justin Hertzberg assumes more of a “figurehead CEO” role, primarily responsible for signing regulatory documents, while his capacity to manage and scale U.S. operations remains limited. Overall, Polymarket’s re-entry into the U.S. market continues to face dual challenges—both regulatory and operational.
According to Cointelegraph, a survey by the Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad (FD) found that although Polymarket was banned in February this year by the Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) for operating without a gambling license, Kalshi, crypto exchange Hyperliquid, and investment giant Interactive Brokers continue to offer prediction market services to Dutch users.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on its proposed rules for prediction markets, reflecting intensifying regulatory discussion in this space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the proposed regulatory framework, viewing it as conducive to industry standardization and development. However, some stakeholders have called for stricter regulation and enforcement measures to mitigate potential risks. Market analysts note that this comment period highlights substantial disagreement regarding the compliance boundaries, product classification, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets. The finalization of these rules may thus become a pivotal factor shaping the industry’s future development.
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
Polymarket announced the launch of an on-chain market integrity monitoring system solution to monitor trading behavior and enforce platform market compliance rules. The system will be built in collaboration with blockchain data analytics firm Chainalysis, covering the entire Polymarket DeFi transaction process, including real-time on-chain analysis of trading, positions, and settlement data, and identifying potential misconduct through multi-layered monitoring mechanisms, with a focus on insider trading and market manipulation.Polymarket stated that all its transactions are completed on a public blockchain. This collaboration will further amplify the advantages of on-chain transparency, enabling regulators and law enforcement agencies to obtain verifiable on-chain evidence, thereby establishing new compliance standards in the prediction market sector. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated that the platform has emphasized transparency and traceability since its inception, and this collaboration will further solidify its positioning as a "trustworthy source of market information." (Businesswire)
Polymarket is in communication with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), seeking to reopen its main platform to users in the United States. If approved, this could mean the lifting of restrictions on U.S. users that have been in place since its 2022 settlement with the CFTC.According to the report, Polymarket had already made a limited return to the U.S. market through the regulated QCEX structure. A full return would further intensify the competitive landscape of the U.S. prediction market. (Cointelegraph)
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.