News linked to both this project and an event.
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract associated with the club saw a rapid surge in trading volume, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025-2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be using "reverse betting" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in predictive market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed a bet on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed it had purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through brokerage firm Howden. Kalshi, for its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risk within a prediction market: the insurance broker bears the hedging risk, rather than the club directly engaging in transactions, describing the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.Notably, despite suffering a loss in a crucial match, Osasuna ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its rivals failed to surpass them in points.The incident has also sparked debate over the boundaries of prediction market use cases: it is evolving from a speculative tool into a real-world risk hedging instrument, potentially playing an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.Meanwhile, the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched a regulatory investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms for operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for the opening price range of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.SpaceX is scheduled to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 (U.S. time). According to its compliance filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official IPO price has been set at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, institutional oversubscription orders are reportedly exceeding $10 billion, fueling market expectations for a premium from the "first-day pop." However, given the high valuation multiple of 90 times price-to-sales and intense competition in the rocket launch market, the first-day opening premium may be relatively moderate. Under the event's settlement rules, the market will strictly settle based on the official opening price of SpaceX on its first trading day on the primary exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the boundary between two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement.Odaily Seer remains focused on prediction markets. See the change before the price is set.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, was reportedly found to have paid content creators at least $350,000 through his personal PayPal account between January 2025 and February 2026, to promote Polymarket and its prediction market data.Reports indicate that Modabber transferred over $2.5 million to more than 800 individuals over 14 months. According to a Politico investigation, at least 20 influencers who received payments subsequently posted approximately 490 pieces of content related to Polymarket on social media platform X, with the majority failing to clearly disclose the paid partnership.Creators involved include conservative commentator Alex LoRusso, political commentator Brian Krassenstein, and Fox News contributor Riley Gaines. The related posts often described Polymarket's odds changes as "BREAKING" news or event bellwethers, aiming to reinforce the public perception of the platform's predictive accuracy.A Polymarket spokesperson responded that collaborating with content creators is a standard marketing strategy for the company, intended to provide global users with "the most accurate, transparent, and data-driven market insights." However, the company did not address questions regarding why personal accounts were used for payments or whether the related promotions complied with disclosure requirements.The report notes that following Trump's election victory, interest in prediction markets surged, and Polymarket's trading volume grew rapidly. As the platform seeks to re-enter the U.S. market, it is expanding its brand influence through social media and opinion leaders, while also facing scrutiny over information disclosure, market influence, and regulatory compliance. (Politico)
According to The Korea Business, South Korean police are investigating domestic users of Polymarket—the world’s largest prediction market platform—for alleged violations of Article 246 of the Criminal Act (gambling offenses), which carries a maximum fine of KRW 10 million. This investigation—led by the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency upon delegation from the National Police Agency—is the first criminal probe targeting Polymarket users in South Korea, covering users nationwide. It is reported that South Korean users placed bets on the platform using USD-pegged stablecoins, with no restrictions imposed by the platform; for instance, the June 3 local elections alone attracted hundreds of billions of won in betting volume.
: Nine Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives have called on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate prediction markets, reviewing whether their advertising campaigns are consistent with the statements they make to regulators. Representatives Kevin Mullin and Gabe Vasquez stated that prediction market platforms present themselves to regulators as financial instruments offering investment products, yet advertise to the public as gambling platforms. This contradictory information could mislead consumers.The lawmakers have requested that the FTC provide a detailed response by June 29 on whether it plans to launch an investigation or take enforcement action against prediction markets. Prediction markets have recently come under scrutiny over insider trading issues, and Congress launched investigations into Polymarket and Kalshi in May. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket believes competitor Kalshi may have engaged in industrial espionage targeting its New York office and employees. Polymarket's marketing head confirmed the company is conducting an internal investigation, stating there are "too many coincidences" and suspecting Kalshi of malicious intent.According to reports, Polymarket has internally compiled a file named "The Imitators," documenting approximately a dozen suspicious incidents. These include Polymarket's original plan to launch a free grocery pop-up event on February 12, while Kalshi launched a similar event approximately nine days earlier. Additionally, Polymarket was scheduled to announce its perpetual contract product plans on April 21, but about an hour before the announcement, tech media outlet The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing to launch a similar product.Polymarket employees are also concerned that the office of venture capital firm Paradigm, which supports Kalshi, is located directly opposite their workspace, potentially allowing for monitoring of employees' computer screens. It is reported that Polymarket installed window film on some office windows this spring.In response, a Kalshi spokesperson denied all allegations, calling Polymarket's suspicions "pathetic and bordering on delusional." (New York Post)
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Anthropic to IPO before September 30" on Polymarket has dropped to 30%, a 24-hour decline of 37%. Additionally, the probability of "Anthropic to IPO before December 31" is currently reported at 89%.On June 1, Anthropic announced that it had confidentially submitted a U.S. IPO application, moving ahead of competitor OpenAI in the listing process. In a statement, Anthropic said filing the prospectus "gives us the right to choose to go public after the SEC completes its review" and emphasized that "the proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors."According to media reports, Anthropic's listing could be as early as this fall, but it has not disclosed the offering size or terms.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction market titled "June world is peaceful and uneventful." Currently, the probability of something major happening (Something) stands at 14%, while the probability of nothing happening (Nothing) is reported at 86%.Traders believe there is an 86% likelihood that the market will see "no major progress" in June, as no significant diplomatic or policy breakthroughs appear imminent in the initial weeks.If any of the following conditions are met between the market creation and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (US):- WTI crude oil price breaks through $150;- The U.S. confirms the existence of extraterrestrials;- The Federal Reserve decides on any policy adjustments in June;- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine;- Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.Then the market will be settled as "Something"; otherwise, it will be settled as "Nothing."Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.
According to The Block, Strategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, generating approximately $2.5 million in proceeds to pay dividends on its preferred stock. This marks the company’s first Bitcoin sale since December 2022. The disclosure sparked controversy in a Polymarket prediction market—valued at over $20 million in trading volume—that had asked whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin before May 31. The dispute centers on whether the sale qualifies: “Yes” proponents argue the sale occurred before the deadline; “No” proponents contend the information was not publicly disclosed before the market closed and therefore should not count. The market has now entered its final review phase. Polymarket added that “results confirmed outside the deadline will not be recognized,” leaning toward the “No” side. If the dispute escalates further, UMA token holders will vote to resolve it—but prior reports indicate UMA voting power is highly concentrated, with over 60% of active voters linked to Polymarket accounts, raising concerns about impartiality.
digital asset management firm Grayscale stated in its latest report that the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain-based financial infrastructure platform. In the future, it may even challenge the traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems, growing into a "financial services giant."The report shows that Hyperliquid generated approximately $800 million in revenue in 2025, with a full-year perpetual contract trading volume of about $2.9 trillion and open interest of roughly $7 billion, capturing a significant share of the crypto derivatives market. Grayscale believes the platform is no longer limited to crypto trading. Through the HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, it is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets, gradually building a 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure.In another report, FalconX also pointed out that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges like the CME Group, as well as prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and is making progress in new markets like Pre-IPO.The report also emphasized that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for US users, as the regulatory framework gradually clarifies and institutions like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products, this sector may see broader growth potential in the future. (CoinDesk)
According to Fortune, U.S. prosecutors this week charged Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian software engineer at Google currently residing in Switzerland, with insider trading. Prosecutors allege that under the online alias “AlphaRaccoon,” Spagnuolo placed bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket—using internal Google search trend data—before the public release of Google’s “Search of the Year 2025” data, netting over $1.2 million in profits. The FBI identified Spagnuolo by tracing cryptocurrency payments. Google has suspended him and stated that betting using confidential information constitutes a serious violation of company policy. Spagnuolo is charged with violations of the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and money laundering, and faces potentially multiple years of imprisonment.
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has listed a new prediction event: "Will the U.S. federal government officially issue a $250 bill featuring Donald Trump’s portrait before December 31, 2026?"U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on May 28 that the official design for a $250 bill featuring President Trump’s portrait is ready, in anticipation of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. However, actual progress on the plan is currently blocked by stalled legislative procedures in Congress. According to H.R. 1761, introduced as early as February 2025, issuing this currency requires amending the Federal Reserve Act to authorize the new denomination and to waive the long-standing legal restriction prohibiting portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency. As the bill remains stuck in the House Financial Services Committee, with no substantial floor vote or progress in the Senate, the probability of completing legislation and printing the bill within the remainder of this year is low.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market—see the changes before the price is set.
According to Fortune magazine, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are attracting younger users through meme culture, humorous memes, and gamified design. These platforms enhance user engagement with features like leaderboards, badges, and comment-based interactions, while also lowering participation barriers—setting the minimum age for use at 18, below the 21-year-old legal gambling age in most U.S. states. Currently, only a small number of top users profit from Polymarket trading, while approximately 69% of users incur losses. Experts warn that young users, whose cognitive development is still ongoing, may develop a high-risk investment dependency. U.S. Senators Katie Britt and Richard Blumenthal have reportedly introduced legislation to restrict minors’ exposure to prediction market advertising.
Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, clarified in a post on X that the prediction market platform will not introduce mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) checks on its existing services. Stevens stated that KYC is only applicable to the early testing of a new Beta product for some users, and none of the existing products will require KYC as a result. The product will not require KYC after it exits Beta testing either. Polymarket currently faces access restrictions in several jurisdictions, including bans on users placing orders or only allowing position closures. In April, Brazil blocked 27 prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, while Spain's gambling regulator also restricted local users' access to Polymarket and Kalshi in May. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily Two executives from competing prediction market platforms clashed on X over KYC issues. The incident began when Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, refuted claims that the platform would fully implement KYC. In response, Kalshi's Head of Enforcement, @robertjdenault, cited relevant posts, arguing that Polymarket should have adopted KYC long ago. He claimed that Russians and Iranians were trading freely on the platform, and insiders were also using it wantonly. He added that if Polymarket truly wanted to prevent this, it should either bring all operations into compliance (starting with KYC) or shut down.In response, a Polymarket official, Mustafa, called the Kalshi executive an "idiot" in the comments under the post.
the General Directorate for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ), under Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, has ordered internet service providers to temporarily block access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.Regulators believe that the two platforms, without obtaining Spanish gambling licenses, offer local users prediction trading products based on the outcomes of future events, which may violate local gambling laws. Spanish authorities stated that unlicensed platforms lack necessary consumer protection measures such as identity verification, minor protection, and self-restriction mechanisms.According to reports, the related investigation is expected to last 3 to 4 months. During the investigation period, Spanish users will see a risk warning when accessing the relevant websites. Regulatory authorities may subsequently adopt measures such as fines, permanent restrictions, or requiring the platforms to apply for local licenses. (crowdfundinsider)
in response to The Information's report on "Polymarket planning to require users to complete KYC due to compliance pressure," Polymarket's Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, responded that the report is not true.Josh Stevens stated that Polymarket is currently testing a new beta product, and KYC verification is only required for some trial users during the testing period. There is no new KYC requirement added to the existing Polymarket website.He further stated that once the testing period for this product ends, users will no longer need to undergo KYC to use it.
: The U.S. Department of Justice has indicted Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo for allegedly exploiting confidential internal Google information to trade on prediction markets via Polymarket, illegally profiting approximately $1.2 million.According to the indictment, Spagnuolo, operating under the account name "AlphaRaccoon" on Polymarket, placed bets totaling over $2.7 million related to Google's "Year in Search 2025" rankings. He is suspected of obtaining advance access to Google's internal data on the most searched personalities to guide his trading decisions.U.S. prosecutors stated that his actions allegedly violated his fiduciary duties to his employer and constitute insider trading. Google confirmed that the employee has been suspended and is cooperating with law enforcement authorities. Polymarket stated that it has cooperated with U.S. prosecutors and the CFTC, noting that blockchain transactions are transparent and traceable. (TechCrunch)