News linked to both this project and an event.
According to CoinDesk, prediction market platform Polymarket launched five-minute cryptocurrency price prediction contracts on Oct. 28 on a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Users can wager on whether the cryptocurrency’s price at the end of the five-minute cycle will be higher or lower than the starting price; correct predictions pay out $1 per contract, while incorrect ones receive no payout.
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Polymarket is investigating a series of precisely timed and highly profitable trades during this week's Israeli election. This is the latest incident to raise external concerns, highlighting the potential risk of insider trading on prediction markets. According to an analysis of Polymarket's trading ledger, shortly before polling stations closed on Tuesday, hundreds of new accounts bet that Netanyahu and his Likud party would defeat their rivals. These trades quickly began to profit. After some exit polls showed that Netanyahu's party won more seats than early reports suggested, some of these accounts had already cashed out a combined total of more than $100,000. (Bloomberg)
Odaily reports: Sarah Court, Chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), said at a parliamentary hearing on Thursday that the agency has not yet received any applications from prediction market operators. She noted that such platforms may face gambling regulation in Australia rather than financial market regulation, and that any operating license application would face strict scrutiny.Court said that the trading mechanism of prediction markets is similar to binary options, which Australia has already banned, featuring an all-or-nothing outcome, and that the underlying assets are often unrelated to investments or financial markets. She also noted that although Australian users can directly access relevant overseas platforms, they are not protected by local financial regulation and have difficulty obtaining measures such as dispute resolution and client fund protection.In August of this year, the Australian Communications and Media Authority required internet service providers to block the Polymarket website and classified it as an illegal online gambling site. (Bloomberg)
Reuters reports that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating whether prediction market platform Polymarket violated the 2022 settlement agreement by failing to effectively block US users from accessing its overseas platform. The investigation involves the user geolocation identification mechanism, advertising campaigns within the United States, as well as the user registration process and customer protection measures for its US platform.
Odaily report: Shana Bautista, Polymarket's Head of Global Intelligence and Investigations, stated that Polymarket has launched investigations into dozens of trades involving the U.S. midterm elections, focusing on identifying potential insider trading and market manipulation. A person familiar with the investigations, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that at least two of the cases have been referred to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Bautista said Polymarket has assembled a 16-person investigations team and deployed a new election trading monitoring system ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The system integrates data from social media, the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC), crypto companies, banking partners, and other public information sources, generating hundreds of anomalous trading alerts each day. She noted that the investigations team can identify potential manipulation through behavioral patterns such as concentrated trading across multiple accounts within a short period and different wallets using the same device ID. (U.S. National Public Radio)
Odaily reports: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Basketball Association (NBA) to share information and establish communication mechanisms to maintain fair trading in prediction markets and prevent insider trading and market manipulation. The NBA announced that Kalshi and Polymarket will become its preferred prediction market platforms. The NBA is the third U.S. professional sports league to sign a similar agreement with the CFTC, following the National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB), which have already established cooperation with the CFTC.
According to Dune data, nominal trading volume for crypto-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $2.7 billion last week, setting an all-time high. Bitcoin short-term up/down contracts were particularly active, with Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin price prediction contracts seeing single trades exceeding $1 million, and some traders using trading bots to capture opportunities in the final seconds before contract expiration.Cryptocurrency has now become the second-largest trading category on both platforms after sports. Crypto trading platforms including Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, and Kraken are expanding their businesses by applying for relevant licenses or partnering with prediction markets. Meanwhile, declining spot trading volume on centralized exchanges is also pushing crypto platforms to seek business diversification. However, as multiple U.S. states mount legal challenges against sports-related prediction contracts, the regulatory trajectory could also affect the industry's development. (Bloomberg)
Odaily reports: CoinShares analysis indicates that the continued weakening of the U.S. housing market has provided room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but inflationary pressure remains a key constraint on monetary policy.On the interest rate front, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, but recent hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data leave the risk of further rate hikes in place. Polymarket data shows that as of October 20, the market priced in roughly a 12% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October, while CME market pricing suggested about 17%; the market's expected probability of another rate hike in December is about 83%. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates in October, it could trigger a larger shock by exceeding market expectations.Bitcoin showed relative resilience this week amid volatility in risk assets, supported by recovering spot demand, improved stock market sentiment, and short covering. However, the subsequent trajectory of the crypto market will still be mainly influenced by interest rate expectations and changes in liquidity, and the policy buffer provided by housing market weakness is not yet sufficient to offset inflation risks.
via The Block on X that, according to the New York Post, prediction market platform Polymarket has fired its Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber, who was closely associated with Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.According to reports, the dismissal followed an internal investigation. The investigation was launched earlier this year, prompted by a series of incidents that raised concerns among the company's investors.
According to The New York Post, which cited sources familiar with the situation, prediction market platform Polymarket has terminated its Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber. He is a high school classmate and close ally of CEO Shayne Coplan, and has served in the role since January 2024. Prior to this, the company conducted an internal investigation into multiple controversies involving Modabber. In one instance, as reported by The Wall Street Journal in June, his team allegedly created fraudulent websites to promote staged videos claiming users had profited from fake trades. This incident prompted an investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), though no violations have been confirmed to date. Separately, Politico reported that he allegedly used a personal PayPal account to pay influencers for promotional content without disclosing the business relationship. Sources stated that Coplan was initially frustrated with the legal team driving the dismissal decision, but later came to agree that terminating Modabber was in the best interest of the company. Board members believe Modabber hindered efforts to distance the company from its grassroots startup image amid preparations for a potential initial public offering (IPO). Both parties are currently finalizing the terms of his departure agreement, and Polymarket has declined to comment.
Odaily Report: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has banned personnel at the Pentagon and defense agencies from using non-public information to place bets on upcoming military operations, including trading on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.In a memo sent Tuesday to senior officials at the Department of Defense and related defense agencies, Pete Hegseth stated that the ban covers both classified and unclassified information, and noted that betting on prediction markets could expose military operations and affect operational security and personnel judgment.The directive follows allegations that US Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged in April with using classified information about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to bet on related outcomes on Polymarket and earn more than $400,000. Prosecutors said he participated in planning and executing the operation, and Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges.In February of this year, Israeli authorities arrested and charged a military reservist and a civilian on suspicion of using classified information to bet on Polymarket regarding the outcome of an Israeli military strike on Iran. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily reports: Crypto.com's prediction market trading platform and Novig filed suit against Missouri officials in federal court last Friday, asking a judge to bar the state from taking enforcement action against their sports event contracts. Previously, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sent cease-and-desist letters in September to six platforms, including both companies, requiring them to stop offering sports event contracts to state residents within 30 days or obtain a state license and pay a 10% tax. Crypto.com said the cease-and-desist letter was mistakenly sent to Foris DAX, Inc. rather than the trading platform itself; the Missouri Constitution only permits the issuance of two mobile sports prediction licenses, and both have already been granted, making obtaining a license unfeasible.The two platforms argue that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and preempts state law. Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog, which also received cease-and-desist letters in September, had not filed suit in Missouri federal court as of Sunday. Because multiple U.S. federal appellate courts are divided on whether federal law preempts state regulation, Novig has asked the court to issue a preliminary injunction during the litigation to maintain the status quo.
Odaily reports: A survey covering 4,506 adults across the United States shows that most respondents oppose betting on U.S. elections and other government actions through prediction markets. 69% of Democratic respondents and 61% of Republican respondents opposed betting on election results. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5.The prediction market industry, driven by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, allows users to bet on U.S. elections, changes in government policy, and sporting events. The related business has triggered multiple regulatory lawsuits between state governments and federal agencies.The survey shows that 43% of respondents oppose betting on professional sports events, while 29% expressed support. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for the industry to be regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 39 states and the District of Columbia have submitted amicus briefs, stating that the dispute between federal and state regulators has evolved into a nationwide jurisdictional conflict. (Cointelegraph)
According to CoinShares' market report, the US September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.6% market expectation. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% during the month, accounting for roughly half of the overall increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. In the same period, US September retail sales increased 0.8% month-over-month, beating the ~0.3% forecast, while August data was revised up to 1.3%. However, retail sales excluding gasoline only grew by 0.2%, down from 1.0% in August. The report pointed out that inflation remains elevated and economic demand continues to show resilience, driving a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy that weighed on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Data showed that market sentiment notably weakened following the CPI release, with global digital asset investment products recording $434 million in outflows so far this week. Regarding interest rate expectations, as of October 15, Polymarket data indicated a roughly 75% probability that the Fed would hold rates unchanged at its October meeting and about a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Following the CPI release, futures markets shifted markedly toward a hawkish stance, with expectations of another rate hike within the year rising significantly.
Taiwan, China has blocked the websites of Coinbase and prediction market platform Kalshi. It is reported that the New Taipei District Court has authorized Taiwan's communications regulator and internet registration authorities to restrict local users' access to the relevant platforms. Taiwan had previously blocked Polymarket, Kalshi's main competitor. (Bloomberg)
According to Bloomberg, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan recently hinted that the platform may release an announcement, sparking widespread market speculation over the potential launch of a cryptocurrency token. Previously, at the TOKEN2049 Singapore conference, Coplan noted that the company is exploring an on-chain asset linked to the platform’s economic system with practical programmable utility, though no specific token issuance plan was announced. At present, crypto startups face a choice between traditional equity financing and token offerings as they seek both capital and regulatory stability.
According to The Block, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is conducting an early review of the online sports betting industry, focusing on alleged false or misleading advertising by betting companies such as FanDuel and DraftKings. Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to fall outside the scope of this review.
a poll shows approximately 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose using prediction markets to bet on U.S. elections, military actions, and policy announcements, with only 8% and 9% respectively supporting such betting. Respondents consider such markets unethical, socially corrosive, and potentially harmful to national security. The prediction market industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, continues to expand, and policymakers are concerned that related platforms may open new channels for insider trading and manipulation.
Blockchain.com is seeking approval in the U.S. market to launch prediction markets and crypto derivatives trading.
Odaily News: The National Football League (NFL) has joined the position opposing federal regulation of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and has filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court. The related case may enter its final ruling stage.Several other briefs were submitted to the U.S. Supreme Court this week, including filings from former regulator Gary Gensler and former Senator Chris Dodd. Chris Dodd once championed a bill under which the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argues it should have final regulatory authority as the overseer of prediction markets. (CoinDesk)