News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Magic advancing to the NBA playoffs" on Polymarket has dropped to 39%, down 30% in 24 hours. Yesterday, the Magic lost to the 76ers with a score of 97 to 109 and will compete with the Hornets tomorrow morning at 7:30 for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. Additionally, Hornets star LaMelo Ball was fined $35,000 for pulling Adebayo during the game against the Heat and was assessed a Flagrant Foul 2, but did not receive a suspension. Furthermore, Ball was fined $25,000 for using profanity in a post-game interview, resulting in a total fine of $60,000.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that although Powell's term as Chair ends on May 15th, the probability on Polymarket of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair after his term expires (May 14th) is only 2%, indicating Powell is likely to continue serving as the Fed's interim Chair.The key to whether Powell can continue as Fed Chair after his term expires lies in whether Kevin Walsh, Trump's chosen successor, can secure Congressional confirmation at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 21st. Powell previously stated that if a successor is not confirmed by May, he will serve as interim Chair.Therefore, the market is indirectly betting that Walsh will struggle to gain Congressional approval by April 21st or even before May 15th. The reason is that North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis is obstructing this appointment, stating he will not advance any Fed nominee's process until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into Powell.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
Odaily News Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out in its latest report that with the rapid rise of prediction markets, Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to become major beneficiaries in this sector, leveraging their massive retail user base and mature trading infrastructure. Although leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private companies, Robinhood and Coinbase have already begun entering this market by integrating event-driven trading within their applications.Cantor noted that prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on real-world events such as elections and economic data, with prices reflecting the crowd's probability judgments. This model is similar to stock and crypto trading platforms, primarily generating revenue through trading activity fees. Among them, Robinhood's prediction market product, launched after the US election, has grown rapidly and has become one of its fastest-growing revenue streams; Coinbase is gradually opening related features to users by integrating Kalshi's infrastructure.The report believes that prediction markets not only have retail trading potential but may also play a role in institutional hedging and macro forecasting in the future. However, regulation remains the biggest uncertainty, as its legal status is still debated between being classified as a derivative or gambling. (CoinDesk)
According to The Information, prediction market Polymarket has announced audits of several early-stage startups integrated into its ecosystem. These startups had previously been accused of identifying and distributing suspected “insider trading accounts” to steer users into copy-trading those accounts. Among the implicated projects are Kreo—which touts itself as a service for “detecting insider accounts ahead of time”—and Polycool—which offers an “insider trading guide.” By pushing suspicious account trading data to users, these platforms have amplified market concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. Polymarket’s move signals its strengthened compliance oversight of its ecosystem, following sustained external scrutiny over potential insider trading risks in prediction markets.
According to an article published by Caixin titled “Financial Innovation or Insider Trading? The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket,” when insider information can be openly monetized, the boundary of prediction markets has already become blurred—raising questions about whether such markets are merely “gambling” disguised as finance, or even涉嫌 insider trading. Yet regardless of the legal debate over whether such activities constitute gambling, the fact that Polymarket uses the USDC stablecoin for settlement and delivery itself poses a significant legal risk for participants within China. Previously, U.S. Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act,” which prohibits the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets and requires that the prediction market trading activities of their spouses and dependents be included in annual financial disclosures.