News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic posted on X, stating: "The Senate vote on the Clarity Act is expected to take place in about 10 hours. Democrats have already rejected the Republican-drafted bill on the pretext of so-called 'ethics concerns' (eThIcS cOncErNs); the predicted odds on Polymarket have collapsed, and the market has fully priced in expectations of failure. Regardless of the outcome, however, I am very much looking forward to this vote. It means we can finally turn the page and shift our energy to far more important matters. If the bill fails to pass, we will instead get equally strong pro-crypto regulatory policy from the SEC; and if even that doesn't happen, then the responsibility for watching the U.S. hand over its leadership in frontier finance and sit idly by as the world's most dynamic companies move offshore will rest entirely on the Democrats. Politics is tiresome, but America is not so foolish as to let that situation happen. So what must come will come, and we will ultimately prevail."
According to an analysis by Jiangzhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of Litecoin Pool, after Republicans released a new draft of the Clarify Act claiming concessions on 80% of the disputed provisions, Polymarket's passage probability rose accordingly from 14% to 28%. Upon closer inspection, however, the actual concession rate is around 60%, with only partial compromises made on key provisions. Under the ethics clause, the new draft expands restrictions to officials and their spouses but still excludes children and affiliated entities, a move criticized as having limited practical impact; regarding the enforcement clause, while it allows state attorneys general to sue exchanges for listing non-compliant tokens, it explicitly bars suing the Department of Justice for regulatory inaction or the President directly. Jiangzhuoer believes that Democrats lack any incentive to "hand Trump a gift" ahead of the midterm elections, making it unlikely they would endorse this "fake compromise." Consequently, the prospect of the procedural vote passing at 2:15 AM Beijing Time on September 16 is slim, and a failed vote on the Clarify Act could mark the beginning of a correction in the current BTC uptrend.
Bitcoin News posted on X that Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Digital Assets, appears to be sending a positive signal ahead of the Senate's upcoming vote on the CLARITY Act, saying that "today is not a good day for CLARITY Act skeptics." However, Polymarket shows only a 20% chance the bill passes in 2026.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously secretly approved 3 insider trading investigations into Polymarket trading, involving Biden pardon, Iran war, and Google-related event contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation in May into contracts related to the Biden pardon, after a trader had profited over $300,000 from the related market; in the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into Iran war contracts, after a group of suspicious accounts was exposed for profiting $2.4 million with a win rate of approximately 98%. In July, the CFTC further launched an investigation into Google-related Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have used non-public information about Google's 2025 search rankings to trade. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation, and Polymarket stated that it has referred the relevant matters to law enforcement and is cooperating with the investigation.
Odaily reports: A group of 19 interconnected Polymarket accounts concentrated bets over the past several months on the earnings of publicly traded companies audited by KPMG, covering 18 KPMG clients including Wells Fargo, Home Depot, DoorDash, and General Mills. The account cluster placed a total of 42 trades, of which 41 were profitable, for a win rate of 98% and cumulative profits of about $22,000. The related funds had flowed among the 19 accounts, suggesting they may have been controlled by the same person or team. U.S. law enforcement is investigating a KPMG employee suspected of using Polymarket for insider trading; the employee is being investigated for betting on whether listed companies' quarterly results would exceed market expectations. At present, it cannot yet be confirmed that the account cluster is connected to the employee, and the related analysis itself also cannot prove the existence of insider trading. KPMG said it has a zero-tolerance stance toward trading using non-public client information and has strengthened relevant monitoring.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released a report stating that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi lack the formal authorization required to sell contracts to users in the EU. Regulators have also questioned the effectiveness of these platforms in enforcing geo-restrictions and anti-VPN measures.
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic completing an IPO before October 15, 2026 has dropped to 6%, down 51% in a single week; the probability of an IPO before October 31, 2026 has dropped to 60%, down 29% in a single week.According to the resolution rules, if Anthropic officially lists on a public stock exchange and opens for stock trading before 23:59 Eastern Time on the specified date, it resolves as Yes; otherwise, it resolves as No. In addition, if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly listed company, it immediately resolves as No. The primary basis for resolution of this market is documents and announcements published by Anthropic officially and by the stock exchange where its shares are listed.Previously, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Anthropic planned to launch its IPO roadshow as early as mid-October and was aiming to go public before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Today, however, David Sacks, chairman of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, called for suspending Anthropic's IPO until the relevant "whistleblower" allegations are fully investigated.The "whistleblower" refers to former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who previously resigned over concerns about AI safety risks and publicly accused Anthropic and OpenAI of racing to develop self-improving superintelligence without adequate safety safeguards.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability on Polymarket that "Donald Trump Jr. posts about LAPTOP on X & Truth Social in September" has dropped to 30%, down 20% in 24 hours.The event rules state: if the designated person publishes qualifying written content related to Hunter Biden's Meme coin LAPTOP on X & Truth Social before 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Merely using the word "LAPTOP" without clearly indicating the token in context does not qualify. Merely referencing Hunter Biden's LAPTOP, the Hunter Biden LAPTOP controversy, its content, related investigations, or any related events does not qualify.Hunter Biden, son of former U.S. President Joe Biden, plans to launch the Meme coin LAPTOP on the Base chain on September 9. According to the official website description, the Meme coin LAPTOP is inspired by Hunter Biden's "laptop scandal" from six years ago. That scandal also dragged then-Vice President Joe Biden into a massive storm.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize opportunities first.
Odaily News – Andy, host of The Rollup podcast, stated on X that rumors circulating on Capitol Hill suggest the CLARITY Act has almost zero chance of passing. While Polymarket's prediction probability shows 18%, the real odds are likely only around 3%–5%.According to his sources, it is widely understood within Washington D.C. that the bill cannot pass, but no one can openly say so, as the industry has already poured tens of millions of dollars and 18 months of resources into pushing it forward. The Democratic Party's ethical scrutiny over Trump's crypto-related business interests has yet to receive substantive answers. With that in mind, the odds for YES on prediction markets appear somewhat overvalued, and NO might be a direction worth watching.Andy: "The CLARITY Act may subsequently be 'split into several independent bills,' each targeting specific segments of the crypto market. After the CLARITY Act's failure, what may follow are innovation exemptions, regulations, or sub-bills addressing stablecoins, asset tokenization, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. At this stage, lawmakers appear more inclined toward a segmented, granular approach rather than introducing one sweeping, all-encompassing crypto bill. Based on my conversations with insiders in Washington, this is the more likely scenario in the long run."
Odaily News - Prediction market platform Polymarket launched its perpetual contract product, Polymarket Perps, on September 3. The initial offering covers 10 contracts including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, HYPE, Gold, Silver, WTI Crude Oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and a contract tracking SpaceX stock, expanding to 67 markets within hours.The product has no expiration date, with contract prices continuously tracking the underlying assets. It maintains anchoring to spot prices through funding rates settled hourly, with funding rate caps at 4% per hour in both directions. Cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500, crude oil, gold, and silver support up to 20x leverage, while individual stocks and other real-world assets support up to 10x.U.S. traders are unable to place Perps orders and will be directed to Polymarket US, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This arrangement stems from Polymarket's 2022 settlement with the CFTC, in which the company was fined $1.4 million for operating an unregistered swap execution facility and was required to cease related non-compliant contracts. (Decrypt)
Odaily News According to data from prediction market platform Polymarket, the CLARITY Act has a 15% probability of completing legislation and receiving the President's signature by 2026, with related contract trading volume reaching approximately $11.62 million. Kalshi data shows that the probability of this bill or other qualifying crypto market structure bills becoming law before July 1, 2027, is 30%, and 50% before January 1, 2028.In remarks during a hearing on September 2, House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill highlighted the House's passage of the CLARITY Act as a committee achievement, stating that Republican committee members are pushing to codify related reforms into law to make financial rules durable and predictable over the long term.According to the U.S. Senate schedule, the motion to invoke cloture on H.R. 3633 could move to a vote as early as September 15 at 2:15 p.m., typically requiring 60 votes. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14 with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. The subsequent amended text addresses the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), consumer protections, illicit finance, DeFi, intermediary oversight, and disclosure requirements. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing and becoming law in 2026 is 13%, with related contract trading volume of approximately $11.5 million, a significant decline from the 82% priced by the market in February.The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15. The motion to invoke cloture to start the vote was filed by Majority Leader John Thune and typically requires 60 votes. Prediction market platform Kalshi puts the probability of a Senate vote occurring before October 1 at 91%, with related market trading volume exceeding $1.25 million.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusively regulating spot digital commodity markets, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) overseeing certain securities offerings and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements over conflicts of interest between officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin yields, and protections for decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News Crypto asset investment fund C1 Fund (NYSE: CFND) has announced its Q2 2026 performance results. As of June 30, the fund's net asset value (NAV) stood at $42.63 million, with a NAV per share of $6.49. The fair value of its investment portfolio was approximately $33.07 million, accounting for 77.5% of net assets.C1 Fund added Polymarket to its holdings in Q2, bringing its total investment portfolio to 11 companies. These span sectors including crypto payments, custody, compliance, staking, exchanges, development infrastructure, and prediction markets. Its two largest exposures are Ripple (17.5% of net assets) and Payward, the parent company of Kraken (16.9%).As of July 31, C1 Fund has repurchased and canceled 249,300 shares of its own stock at a total cost of approximately $824,000. The company is currently authorized to repurchase up to $3 million worth of shares. Management stated that buybacks conducted when the share price falls below NAV help enhance the per-share NAV for remaining shareholders.Additionally, Kraken and Blockchain.com have publicly announced that they have confidentially submitted potential IPO applications to the U.S. SEC; BitGo completed its IPO in January 2026. C1 Fund also revealed that an early partial issuer repurchase by Ripple generated approximately a 150% return on investment for the fund in just over four months. (Businesswire)
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 has risen to 57%, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75% to 4%; the probability of maintaining the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% stands at 43%.On August 21, the probability of a rate hike was 39.9%, which rose to 57% after the Jackson Hole speech on August 28, and market bets on a September rate cut have essentially disappeared.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged is 52%, while the probability of a hike is 48%, with related trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data shows that the probabilities of holding rates steady and hiking are 52% and 48%, respectively, with related trading volume exceeding $23.8 million.In his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Fed will adhere to its 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation target, and noted that his commitment is to discipline rather than specific decisions. Data shows that the 12-month PCE inflation rate is 3.7%, and the 6-month reading is 4.1%. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket US withdrew two NFL player participation contract filings on August 26. The platform had completed certification with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the previous day and planned to launch the related products no earlier than August 27.On the same day, Polymarket US certified Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana price contracts. All three contract types were submitted in paired form and classified as swaps under the binary options subcategory. Both the NFL contracts and the cryptocurrency contracts fall under the relevant classification.Polymarket US separately filed a confidential treatment request for the NFL compliance analysis documents, seeking permanent non-disclosure on the grounds that public release would reveal trade secrets and give competitors an unfair advantage. As of the time of record, another NFL American football starting eligibility contract remained in certified status. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News – Prediction market platform Polymarket has expanded its partnership with Nasdaq-listed sports data provider Sportradar, gaining access to high-speed data and streaming video content from more than 20 sports associations, providing more real-time official data for sports prediction markets on the platform.The collaboration will bring more official sports event data into Polymarket's betting markets, reducing delays in real-time information transmission during games and enhancing the user experience for prediction trading.This partnership signals that sports leagues are gradually embracing the prediction market model, even as U.S. regulators continue to review the legal positioning of related platforms. As demand for sports predictions grows, Polymarket is strengthening its competitiveness in the sports prediction market by integrating authoritative data sources. (The Information)
Odaily News: The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist letters on January 9 to prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding they stop offering sports-related prediction market products to Tennessee residents, void unsettled contracts, and return customer funds. The Council considers these products to constitute sports betting, requiring platforms to comply with state licensing, taxation, age restrictions, and consumer protection requirements.Kalshi stated that its event contracts are financial instruments regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and are not subject to state sports betting regulations. Users buy and sell contracts, with contract prices reflecting the market's implied probability; when an event occurs, winning contracts settle at $1, while others settle at zero.Traditional betting companies typically accept user wagers and manage risk by setting odds, whereas Kalshi facilitates trading between users, with the platform acting as a matchmaker and prices formed by buyers and sellers. This dispute centers on whether sports prediction markets should be subject to a unified federal regulatory framework or individual state betting licensing regimes. (Bitcoin.com News)
US Army soldiers face disciplinary action for betting on the prediction platform Polymarket, highlighting a compliance conflict between the US military's gambling ban and crypto prediction markets.
Odaily News – Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. soldier, has been accused of using non-public information to trade event contracts on the prediction market platform Polymarket related to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, earning over $400,000 in profits. U.S. authorities filed fraud charges against him in April.The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously filed a civil lawsuit against Van Dyke, but a federal judge has ruled to stay the proceedings pending the outcome of the criminal case. The CFTC has filed a motion to submit an amicus brief, seeking to express its views on defense arguments such as whether event contracts qualify as "swaps" under its regulatory purview.Van Dyke's attorneys filed documents with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on Monday opposing the CFTC's intervention in the criminal case, arguing that the agency should directly confront its own case. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges, and the criminal trial could begin as early as late 2026 or early 2027. (Cointelegraph)
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "Will the CLARITY Act be signed into law by 2026" prediction event, a new account (0xf53e7cc2894cba22dcdc40de936513a502ef16e3) purchased approximately $825,000 worth of "CLARITY Act will not be signed into law by 2026" shares. The account made two purchases, first buying $599,400 and then $226,000, at prices of 78¢ and 77¢ respectively, acquiring approximately 1,052,900 shares in total.According to market rules, if the CLARITY Act passes both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives before 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026, and is signed into law by the President, the prediction market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.