News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
据美国威斯康星州东区联邦地区法院 7月 28 日裁决，法院驳回了 CFTC 要求禁止威斯康星州对 Kalshi、Coinbase、Robinhood、Polymarket及 Crypto.com 等平台的体育相关事件合约执法的初步禁令申请。法院认为，CFTC 未能证明其主张——即《商品交易法》（CEA）对"掉期"的定义涵盖体育事件合约——具有胜诉可能性，且赌博监管属于州传统警察权范畴，联邦法律并未明确表示意图取代州法。此外，法院同时驳回了 Kalshi、Crypto.com 衍生品北美公司（CDNA）的介入申请及美国博彩协会（AGA）的被告介入申请。目前，CFTC 与威斯康星州的实质性诉讼仍将继续推进。
: Prediction market platform Polymarket has announced the establishment of the Polymarket Institute, dedicated to funding independent academic research on how prediction markets can replace traditional polling and forecasting models in large-scale scenarios. The institute is fully funded by Polymarket and operates internally within the company. Its Executive Director is Polymarket's Head of Data, Kai Brusch, and its Scientific Director is Brian Jabarian, Assistant Professor of Economics and Technology at Carnegie Mellon University. Research directions include information aggregation, risk management, and intersections with AI, policy, and crypto markets.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Minnesota Katherine Menendez ruled on July 28 local time that the Minnesota state law criminalizing the operation of prediction markets likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the enforcement of the state law. The judge held that prediction market contracts structurally fall under 'swap' products within the CFTC's regulatory scope, federal law takes precedence over state law, and the three plaintiffs are 'likely to prevail in the formal trial'. Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause 'irreparable harm' to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the final judgment of the case is issued.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez for the District of Minnesota ruled on Monday that a recently enacted Minnesota state law banning prediction markets may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act. She granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC had sued the state of Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law classifying the operation of prediction markets within the state as a criminal offense. The three parties argued that prediction market contracts are structured as "swaps" and that the state law infringes upon the CFTC's regulatory authority over such products. In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the parties are likely to succeed on the merits of their claim that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law.
sports merchandise and betting platform Fanatics will acquire a federally regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market operations. Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activity with traditional financial market data. This deal enables Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing directly with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
the long-awaited digital asset regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, has hit a snag in its advancement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate is not expected to pass the bill before the August recess.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, promoting the integration of blockchain and crypto assets into the mainstream financial system. Previously, the bill had undergone multiple rounds of negotiations between the crypto industry and opposing forces, such as the banking sector, and was once considered close to passage.However, recent controversy surrounding conflicts of interest related to President Donald Trump and his family's involvement in crypto projects has emerged as a new obstacle. Democrats are demanding the inclusion of ethical clauses in the bill that would restrict government officials from profiting from crypto transactions, a stance Republicans have previously opposed. Prediction market data indicates that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has significantly declined. Polymarket data shows that as of Friday, the probability stood at approximately 37%, well below the over 80% level seen earlier this spring.Crypto policy organizations and industry insiders believe the current delay is largely influenced by the political dynamics of the U.S. midterm elections. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, stated that the votes to support the bill may still exist, but "election politics are louder." He suggested that a window for advancing the bill could still emerge after the November elections.Analysts point out that if Congress needs to prioritize major issues such as government funding and national defense before the end of its current term, the CLARITY Act could be further marginalized. As the U.S. political landscape may shift following the midterm elections, the outlook for crypto regulatory legislation remains highly uncertain. (Fortune)
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
Polymarket has announced it will challenge France’s full-site blockade against it, stating that the platform has disabled trading functions in France since November 2024. French regulators claim the platform continues to promote illegal gambling, citing risks such as financial losses, identity verification issues, and market manipulation. France is the latest country to require internet service providers to block the platform, following similar measures taken by Ukraine, Argentina, and Spain.
Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the monthly trading volume on the two platforms has risen to $24 billion, surpassing the average monthly betting volume of legal sports platforms in the United States. Kalshi reported $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with its annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion since then. Prediction markets operate on a binary contract exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets, holding positions, or bearing the risk of event outcomes. Its primary revenue comes from transaction fees, with additional revenue sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and, in some cases, market creation fees on the platform. In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market at the end of 2025 by acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112 million. Some states still classify prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level lawsuits remain ongoing. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the attributes of prediction market contracts, and classification varies among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a license as a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP).
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability of the "CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026" on Polymarket is temporarily reported at 38%, down 9% in 24 hours.Although the latest text of the CLARITY Act has been released and is scheduled to be submitted for a full Senate vote as early as next week, several Democratic senators believe that the ethical provisions regarding Trump's crypto asset conflicts of interest in the new version are too weak. Meanwhile, the market also remains cautious about whether the bill can complete coordination between the two chambers and finalize the legislative process before the August congressional recess.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
: The Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, under the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, held a hearing on how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should regulate prediction markets. Carl Kennedy, a partner at Katten Muchin Rosenman, stated that the CFTC may lack sufficient staffing to adequately handle regulation and enforcement for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Kennedy believes that the CLARITY Act, currently under consideration in the Senate, could grant the CFTC greater authority, both for digital assets and for addressing the growth of prediction markets. He stated that if the CFTC is to handle new asset classes such as cash markets and crypto assets, it will require more resources. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, since being confirmed by the Senate in December, has argued that the agency has exclusive jurisdiction over related companies and believes that event contracts on these platforms fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as swaps. Several U.S. states have sued Kalshi and Polymarket over sports betting-related disputes, and these cases could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "CLARITY Bill Signed into Law in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% in 24 hours and 10% in a week.The market rules are as follows: If the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act of 2025" (HR3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". The primary sources of information are official announcements from the U.S. Congress website and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt has officially stated today that he will remain in Washington to push for the passage of the CLARITY Act. Previously, there were reports that he would leave before the Senate vote, but that news has now been overturned.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that on Polymarket, for the event "Will the US government ban open-source AI models in 2026?", the "Yes" probability is currently at 16%.According to the resolution rules, if the US federal government, before December 31, 2026, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal policy actions, restricts the US public's access or use of a specific open-source AI model, the market outcome will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market outcome will be resolved as "No." Eligible open-source AI models refer to general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models whose model weights and source code are publicly downloadable and can be run on hardware under user control, such as Meta Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen, etc.Recently, the open-source Kimi K3 model launched by Moonshot AI has drawn market attention to whether it will impact closed-source AI. OpenAI's Director of Strategy, Dean W. Ball, stated on X platform that the US government might adopt soft legal measures to prevent open-source models from entering the US. David Sacks, Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, believes that using regulatory uncertainty to suppress open-source competition is "unacceptable."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) announced on July 17 that it will block access for users within France to the prediction market platform Polymarket, following a prior ban on accepting financial transactions from French accounts on the platform.The ANJ stated that although France had already restricted financial transactions linked to Polymarket since November 2024, the platform's website remained accessible to French users, with user traffic continuously growing. Therefore, it decided to implement further web-blocking measures.Data shows that Polymarket allows users to engage in predictive trading on the outcomes of future events, including politics, economics, and sports. Since the platform displays betting odds for different events in real-time, French regulators believe this constitutes promotion of unauthorized gambling websites.The ANJ noted: "Promoting unauthorized betting or gambling websites in any manner is a criminal offense." The relevant violations could result in a maximum fine of 100,000 euros (approximately 147,000 Singapore dollars).Regulators indicated that although French accounts are no longer able to conduct related transactions, access from French IP addresses has continued to rise, reaching 578,751 visits in June.This blockade further highlights the attention European regulators are paying to prediction market platforms. As decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket grow rapidly worldwide, how to define them—whether as financial innovation, information markets, or gambling businesses—is becoming a focal point of regulatory discussions across nations. (Straitstimes)
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year to 35% on July 17, recovering from a low of 24% on July 13. The contract had approached 74% in May, before falling to 48% in June as negotiations dragged on. Senate Republicans plan to release the final text of the CLARITY Act after meeting with US President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said the updated text will be released after the meeting, with the target for Senate floor consideration set for the week of July 20. The bill needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democratic votes in support. Democratic negotiators say the draft to be submitted to the chamber is not the version they agreed to. The dispute centers on ethics clauses involving Trump's business interests in the crypto industry.