News linked to both this project and an event.
The global financial market's attention will be focused on Washington this week as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first post-confirmation FOMC press conference. This marks not only his transition from a policy commentator to the "world's most powerful banker," but also a critical window for the outside world to observe whether a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is underway.The market widely expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during this week's meeting. Compared to the specific rate decision, the market is more focused on how Warsh will reshape the Fed's "art of communication." For a long time, former Chair Powell tended to guide market expectations through transparent "forward guidance," but Warsh has previously expressed reservations about this approach publicly, arguing that the Fed should not provide too many interest rate hints to the market.This meeting will also release the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot." For Warsh, who has a strong aversion to the dot plot, this is undoubtedly an awkward beginning, as he must find a balance between respecting the Fed's decision-making mechanism and articulating his own policy preferences. (Reuters)
the crypto market hopes to shake off months of geopolitical pressure this week. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, Bitcoin rose to near $66,000 on Monday, up about 3.5% from Friday. Crypto-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) also advanced in pre-market trading.However, the market remains cautious, as past ceasefire agreements have often collapsed. The April truce failed to hold, and last month's US military action broke another round of peace talks, which also dragged down crypto asset prices at the time.This week, the spotlight will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over the first rate-setting meeting, with the market widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.Analysts point out that the release of the new “dot plot” (showing Fed officials' interest rate expectations) and the shortened trading day due to the Juneteenth holiday on Friday could reduce market liquidity. This week's economic data and Fed policy guidance will determine whether the crypto market can sustain a rebound on the back of easing geopolitical risks. (CoinDesk)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
According to The Wall Street Journal, Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s new chair, advocates reducing forward guidance, the dot plot, and frequent public speeches by officials—preferring instead to let markets price assets with fewer policy signals, thereby enhancing the flexibility of monetary policy. Given that the Iran war has driven up energy prices and inflation remains elevated, Warsh has limited room for adjustments to interest-rate policy in the near term; thus, reforming communication mechanisms may become a top priority early in his tenure.
the Market Oversight Division of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an exemption letter to Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), permitting them to convert their existing "perpetual-like" digital commodity futures contracts into true crypto perpetual futures contracts. This policy is an extension of previous regulatory clarifications and specifically applies to digital commodities such as Bitcoin, which have deep, active, and continuous spot market trading.According to the document, DCMs may remove the expiration date from existing contracts and convert them into true perpetual contracts, provided they meet certain conditions. These requirements include soliciting feedback from position holders, providing advance notice and offering opportunities to close positions, conducting adequate risk disclosures, and ensuring that other key contract terms remain unaltered. Additionally, exchanges must submit amendment filings in accordance with CFTC Rules 40.5 or 40.6 and complete compliance certification.
the actively managed crypto ETF launched by T. Rowe Price was approved by the U.S. SEC on June 12, 2026, marking a key step toward its listing on NYSE Arca. Although the product has not yet begun trading, it is close to being officially opened to investors.The ETF plans to allocate between 5 and 15 crypto assets. The current draft shows it will cover major assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana, and XRP, along with highly volatile tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), reflecting a strategy to expand into a broader digital asset portfolio. The approval process accelerated since April 2026, during which T. Rowe Price submitted multiple revised proposals. The SEC formally approved the second amended filing on June 12, indicating growing regulatory acceptance of multi-asset crypto ETF structures.Market analysts believe that if the product successfully launches, it will further expand institutional investors' compliant exposure to diversified crypto assets and could set a regulatory precedent for more actively managed multi-currency crypto ETFs in the future. (intellectia)
Spanish football club Club Atlético Osasuna has recently become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the prediction market platform Kalshi. Earlier market reports indicated that a Kalshi contract associated with the club saw a rapid surge in trading volume, reaching approximately $591,600. The market predicted the club's potential relegation from La Liga in the 2025-2026 season, sparking speculation that the club might be using "reverse betting" to hedge against the revenue risk of relegation.In response, Osasuna publicly denied any direct participation in predictive market transactions, emphasizing that it "has never placed a bet on Kalshi or any similar platform." The club also confirmed it had purchased approximately €1.2 million in relegation risk insurance through brokerage firm Howden. Kalshi, for its part, stated that the event is more akin to the redistribution of traditional insurance risk within a prediction market: the insurance broker bears the hedging risk, rather than the club directly engaging in transactions, describing the structure as functionally similar to a reinsurance mechanism.Notably, despite suffering a loss in a crucial match, Osasuna ultimately managed to avoid relegation as its rivals failed to surpass them in points.The incident has also sparked debate over the boundaries of prediction market use cases: it is evolving from a speculative tool into a real-world risk hedging instrument, potentially playing an "insurance-like" role in sports finance.Meanwhile, the Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs has launched a regulatory investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, demanding the temporary blocking of the relevant platforms for operating without a license. However, officials emphasized that this action is not directly related to the Osasuna incident. (Fortune)
a16z Crypto published an article explaining its investment in Digital Asset. It stated that the three major obstacles previously hindering institutional adoption of crypto technology included blockchain performance, regulatory uncertainty, and privacy concerns. Now, the blockchain performance issue has been largely resolved, with L1 and L2 networks possessing the scale, speed, and complexity to meet institutional needs; the US GENIUS Act has taken effect, addressing the regulatory issue.a16z Crypto believes that traditional public chains make transaction information public by default. While this facilitates verification, institutional financial transactions require capabilities such as selective disclosure, compliance requirements, and multi-party collaboration. For example, when banks conduct treasury bond transactions or repo transactions, the transacting parties need to share information but should not expose positions, counterparties, and transaction sizes to all network participants. Therefore, privacy remains the core challenge for institutions entering the chain. Most blockchain projects attempt to adapt institutions to the crypto system, whereas Digital Asset chooses to adapt crypto technology to institutional needs. Mature privacy technology has also become a key breakthrough for attracting institutional entry.
According to Ledger Insights, Federated Hermes—a U.S.-based asset management firm with $907 billion in assets under management—has announced the launch of the Federated Hermes Money Market Management Digital Treasury Fund, a money market fund compliant with the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin regulatory requirements. Primarily targeting stablecoin issuers, the fund is also open to institutional and retail investors. Its collateral assets have maturities of no more than 93 days, and its investment scope includes cash and U.S. Treasuries—highly liquid assets.
: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig announced the official opening of a public comment period to establish a structured framework for evaluating the types of events that may underlie prediction market trading contracts. It is understood that this framework will provide long-term, transparent regulatory guidelines to identify contracts subject to enhanced Congressional scrutiny, while allowing lawful markets to continue operating in the public interest. The CFTC expressed gratitude for feedback from market participants, federal and state officials, tribal leaders, and the public, and welcomes continued input.Mike Selig emphasized that this will not be the final rulemaking concerning prediction markets, and the agency will continue to seek a balance between maintaining market integrity and supporting innovation.
financial infrastructure company TVL Capital announced the completion of a $5 million funding round, led by Framework Ventures, with participation from Flow Traders and other institutions. Co-founder Lars previously served as Head of Market Research at The Block. The company's products are benchmarked against traditional exchange-traded products, aiming to build compliant, composable derivatives and diversified yield structures, primarily targeting institutional investors to meet various structured investment and yield management needs.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will formally propose new regulatory rules for prediction markets on Wednesday. The proposed rules would empower regulators to prohibit prediction contracts that are not in the public interest or pose a clear risk of manipulation—especially where a single individual could significantly influence the outcome. The new rules will provide a clearer compliance framework for prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, while continuing to permit most sports-related betting contracts.
Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
a joint letter initiated by Stand With Crypto, in collaboration with the Blockchain Association, the Crypto Council for Innovation, and The Digital Chamber, has been submitted to U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, urging a full floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (the "CLARITY Act") as soon as possible.Over 200 crypto enterprises, industry associations, and community organizations, including Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, a16z, Circle, and Binance.US, have participated in signing the letter. The joint letter points out that the CLARITY Act would establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for the digital asset market, clearly delineate regulatory responsibilities, provide feasible registration pathways, protect software developer innovation, and simultaneously promote the return of more digital asset businesses to the U.S. market.The signatories stated that the bill would help retain innovation, jobs, investment, and market activity within the United States, further solidifying America's leading position in the global digital asset innovation sector.It is understood that the CLARITY Act received bipartisan support and passed committee review in the Senate Banking Committee last month. Senator Cynthia Lummis subsequently stated that the next step for the bill is to enter the full Senate deliberation stage.Additionally, 160 former national security and law enforcement officials have previously signed a letter supporting the bill. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt have also publicly called for advancing the legislative process. However, the issue of conflicts of interest between the Trump family and the crypto industry is still regarded as one of the main obstacles to the bill's progress. (The Block)
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
According to CoinDesk, Vietnam’s securities regulator stated that the country’s digital finance is entering a “critical phase.” Senior Vietnamese officials have outlined plans to launch a pilot market for cryptocurrency trading. Data shows Vietnam ranks 7th globally in terms of cryptocurrency user count and 5th in trading growth.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, was reportedly found to have paid content creators at least $350,000 through his personal PayPal account between January 2025 and February 2026, to promote Polymarket and its prediction market data.Reports indicate that Modabber transferred over $2.5 million to more than 800 individuals over 14 months. According to a Politico investigation, at least 20 influencers who received payments subsequently posted approximately 490 pieces of content related to Polymarket on social media platform X, with the majority failing to clearly disclose the paid partnership.Creators involved include conservative commentator Alex LoRusso, political commentator Brian Krassenstein, and Fox News contributor Riley Gaines. The related posts often described Polymarket's odds changes as "BREAKING" news or event bellwethers, aiming to reinforce the public perception of the platform's predictive accuracy.A Polymarket spokesperson responded that collaborating with content creators is a standard marketing strategy for the company, intended to provide global users with "the most accurate, transparent, and data-driven market insights." However, the company did not address questions regarding why personal accounts were used for payments or whether the related promotions complied with disclosure requirements.The report notes that following Trump's election victory, interest in prediction markets surged, and Polymarket's trading volume grew rapidly. As the platform seeks to re-enter the U.S. market, it is expanding its brand influence through social media and opinion leaders, while also facing scrutiny over information disclosure, market influence, and regulatory compliance. (Politico)
Chainalysis has released a report stating that as demand for gray market peptide products (such as weight loss drugs like semaglutide) grows rapidly, related suppliers and buyers are increasingly using cryptocurrencies for transactions, with leading suppliers primarily relying on Bitcoin and stablecoins.The report shows that crypto funds flowing into this sector reached $32 million in the first quarter of 2026, a 159% increase from $12 million in the previous quarter, with the annualized scale already exceeding $100 million.Chainalysis points out that demand for peptide products is driven by trends in medical aesthetics, health and wellness, and the popularity of GLP-1 drugs. However, since these products often involve prescription-grade compounds or unregulated substances, traditional banks and credit card processors typically restrict their transactions, prompting the market to shift towards crypto payments.The agency also noted that some leading suppliers have adopted more professional on-chain fund management methods. Particularly among suppliers with average single deposits exceeding $1,000, the proportion of stablecoins has significantly increased, likely to mitigate the risk of large supply chain orders being affected by crypto market volatility.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Research, stated that the market experienced a new wave of volatility following Strategy's disclosure on June 1st of selling 32 Bitcoin. Although the sale is negligible compared to its holdings of approximately 840,000 Bitcoin (worth about $55 billion), this rare reduction move still impacted market sentiment.Pandl pointed out that the more noteworthy development is the performance of Strategy’s Variable Rate Preferred Stock STRC (Stretch). The product has a design target price of around $100 and currently offers a dividend yield of 11.5%. When the stock price falls below $100, it indicates that investors are demanding a higher rate of return, which may force the company to increase dividend levels. This would increase future cash flow pressure and potentially compel it to sell more Bitcoin for fundraising, further weighing on BTC prices. Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin reserve model is facing challenges. At current STRC and MSTR share price levels, the company's ability to continue large-scale Bitcoin accumulation may be constrained.However, Pandl noted that in the long term, the migration of Bitcoin holdings from highly leveraged digital asset reserve companies to more diversified corporate balance sheets will help enhance market resilience and improve Bitcoin's long-term value support. He expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trend in the coming months, but its near-term performance may lag behind crypto asset sectors that benefit more directly from regulatory clarity.
Digital trading platform Moomoo has announced a partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi to offer eligible users access to event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can trade contracts related to major events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, elections, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup directly through the Moomoo platform.Event contracts are exchange-traded derivatives that allow investors to bet on the outcome of specific events. Contract prices range from $0.01 to $1, reflecting the market's expectation of the probability of each event occurring. These products will be integrated into the platform alongside Moomoo's existing offerings of stocks, options, and ETFs. Additionally, Moomoo has recently launched cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal functionality, as well as the moomoo API Skills service for AI-powered investment tools, continuing to expand its product ecosystem. (CoinDesk)