News linked to both this project and an event.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
the Spanish National Securities Market Commission has authorized the cryptocurrency platform Venga to operate under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, making it one of the few entities in Spain to have obtained MiCA approval. The MiCA transition deadline came into effect on July 1. Digital asset companies previously operating under national rules must now obtain formal approval under the new framework, or cease providing regulated services within the EU. This authorization allows Venga to offer services across the 27-member EU market based on a single regulatory framework. Michael Stroev, co-founder and CEO of Venga, stated that the MiCA review covered ownership structure, corporate governance, management suitability, risk frameworks, and product infrastructure. The EU previously had over 3,000 crypto companies registered as local virtual asset service providers. However, approximately 240 companies have now received full MiCA authorization, with fewer than 15 approved companies in Spain.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will officially launch a Robotaxi service in California before December 31, 2026."If Tesla officially offers an autonomous taxi service to the public in California before the end of 2026 that does not require continuous human driver intervention, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No."Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi布局, but regional progress shows clear divergence. Currently, in parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), it has already conducted more aggressive unmanned mobility tests and planning, while in the California market, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger permits.At present, Tesla's operations in California are mainly limited to supervised autonomous driving features (FSD Supervised) and have not obtained a commercial Robotaxi license for fully unmanned operations. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely considered by the market to be prioritized for deployment in regions with more lenient regulations, leaving California's progress with high uncertainty.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.
the U.S. SEC stated on Tuesday that it is publicly seeking comments on the regulatory approach for "novel ETFs," evaluating whether existing fund registration and listing processes need adjustments. This review comes amid the rapid expansion of crypto ETFs and an increase in applications for prediction market-related ETFs.SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the regulator wants to hear market opinions to ensure that the U.S. ETF market can effectively serve investors while continuing to grow and innovate. Since Atkins took over as SEC Chairman in April 2025, the SEC has approved multiple crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, including products tracking assets like SOL and DOGE.Currently, market attention is shifting towards prediction market ETFs linked to political and economic outcomes. The SEC has not yet approved such funds for listing and trading and has delayed several related applications. Atkins previously stated that the SEC will evaluate these products in a "transparent and prudent" manner.In this request for comment, the SEC is asking whether a standardized listing framework should be established for ETFs meeting specific criteria and whether certain novel ETFs need to register as investment companies. TD Cowen analysts believe that this request for comment could potentially lead to rule changes as early as 2027, allowing the SEC to permit a wider range of ETF types, including products based on event contracts, crypto assets, and single-stock strategies. (The Block)
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
According to an announcement by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) jointly announced on June 29 that they have completed the first-phase review on promoting the further application of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) in Hong Kong's fixed income market. The review results confirmed that Hong Kong's existing legal and regulatory environment is sufficiently flexible to support the issuance of tokenized bonds. The Companies Registry released frequently asked questions on the same day, clarifying that registers of debenture holders maintained using DLT comply with the relevant provisions of the Companies Ordinance. The next phase of the review will commence in the second half of this year, focusing on legal optimization issues such as allowing electronic signatures to execute tokenized bond issuance documents, as well as the "possession" and "transfer" of tokenized fixed income products, to promote the wider application of DLT in the fixed income market and the digital asset sector.
According to Bits.media, Fidan Tofidi, Director of the Financial Technology and Innovation Department of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, stated that the country's Virtual Asset Market Regulation Bill has been drafted and submitted for deliberation, and is expected to be formally enacted within the year. The bill requires all companies engaged in crypto asset business to obtain a license issued by the central bank, prohibits unauthorized operations within the territory, and subjects licensed institutions to ongoing supervision. The regulatory framework will cover compliance requirements such as anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, and customer identification (KYC), and will be incorporated into Azerbaijan's 2027—2030 Financial Market Development Strategy.
According to The Block, the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) officially released the final draft of the comprehensive crypto regulatory framework on Tuesday, covering prudential capital requirements, market abuse control, and stablecoin standards. The mandatory authorization regime will officially take effect on October 25, 2027. The framework applies to crypto trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers, lending and staking service providers, as well as some DeFi entities with identifiable controlling entities. Market abuse rules cover insider trading and market manipulation. Stablecoin issuers must meet requirements for reserve backing, safeguarding of funds, and redemption disclosures, with the capital ratio reduced from 2% to 1%. The FCA will open the authorization application window from September 30, 2026 to February 28, 2027, and will provide pre-application support meetings starting from July this year. Existing anti-money laundering registration status will not be automatically converted, and relevant institutions must reapply for authorization. FCA Executive Director David Geale stated that the framework aims to provide regulatory certainty for the industry while preserving room for innovation.
the core US crypto regulatory bill, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (Clarity Act), has entered a critical two-week negotiation cycle for legislation. The Senate will be in recess until July 13. During the recess, bipartisan staff, the White House, and representatives from the crypto industry will continue to negotiate outstanding differences in the bill, focusing on resolving disputes over topics such as the integration of the two bill versions from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, ethics clauses, and anti-money laundering rules.If all parties successfully reach a unified compromise version, the bill could be submitted for a full Senate vote as early as late July to early August. The market generally believes that the period before the August congressional recess is the only window for the bill to be passed this year. If the vote is not completed during this phase, the probability of the bill being enacted into law within 2026 will significantly decrease. (Crypto in America)
: Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, stated that the S&P 500 is currently at historical highs, while money market fund (MMF) assets have also hit record levels. This contrast of "both stocks and cash at highs" is stark, but for bulls, it means there is still plenty of "dry powder" that has yet to enter the market. A significant return of funds to the stock market may only occur when interest rates fall below 3%, as in the current 4% yield environment, investors prefer holding stable net asset value money market funds with no drawdown risk over bond ETFs.Balchunas believes that the substantial drawdown in the bond market in 2022 (e.g., AGG fell by about 13%) eroded investor confidence in traditional bonds, leading money market funds to partially replace traditional bond allocations. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainties in the U.S. (including factors related to Trump's policies) have further exacerbated capital's wait-and-see sentiment.
that, according to the latest social media news from CoinGecko, Gate, along with platforms such as Coinbase and OKX, is competing for new users in the EU. Gate continues to advance its European compliance process. Its Malta-based entity, Gate Europe, has obtained the European MiCA and PI licenses under the supervision of the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), strengthening its global compliance framework.Furthermore, leveraging its rich trading products, robust platform services, and global operational capabilities, Gate is actively addressing the growing demand for digital asset trading in the European market. This strategic deployment not only enhances Gate's localized service capabilities in Europe but also provides solid support for the platform in terms of user trust, fund security, compliant operations, and long-term market expansion, underscoring its competitive compliance advantage among global crypto trading platforms.
According to Cointelegraph, the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) has granted the 50th Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license to tokenized asset platform Tribe Tokenisation FZE. VARA stated that licensed enterprises must undergo a controlled operation phase before formally providing services. As of the end of 2025, 39 licensed VASPs were fully operational, and the latest 2026 data is still being verified. In comparison, Singapore currently has 37 licensed Digital Payment Token service providers, while Hong Kong has only 13 licensed Virtual Asset Trading Platforms.
CZ stated in an interview that the significant downturn in the crypto market during the first half of 2026 cannot be explained by a single factor. The overall correction of approximately 50% is likely the result of multiple macro and structural factors. Geopolitical tensions, capital flowing from crypto assets into the AI sector, and the traditional four-year crypto market cycle are jointly suppressing market performance. Notably, Bitcoin has seen a clear decline from its all-time high, falling from around $126,000 last year to approximately $60,000 currently.CZ said that despite short-term price pressure, the industry's long-term trend will continue to grow. He believes that as global demand for trading and financial technology increases, the scale of the crypto industry will still expand. Currently, "emerging industries like AI are absorbing hot money from the market," but this could be a positive phenomenon in the long run. Additionally, he is optimistic about the development of prediction markets, believing they help improve price discovery efficiency and market liquidity.On the regulatory front, CZ believes the US may push forward legislative progress like the "Clarity Act" for digital assets before the end of the year, but these policies are "tactical adjustments" and will not change the long-term growth trajectory of the crypto industry. He also pointed out that countries around the world are still accelerating the development of digital asset regulatory frameworks. (CoinD)
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting" has dropped to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining the current interest rate" has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, and energy prices have surged due to tensions in the Middle East, keeping inflationary pressures alive, after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the June meeting, the market is leaning towards waiting for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. Key economic indicators to be released on July 14, including the US June CPI data, as well as employment and wage figures, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July meeting.The Odaily Seer Prophets Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
following Micron Technology's optimistic earnings report and Qualcomm's positive performance outlook, sentiment in the technology sector has notably warmed, driving a rebound in market risk appetite and alleviating earlier concerns over a slowdown in AI-related trading. Driven by this, Bitcoin recovered after hitting a 20-month low, rebounding 0.3% to $61,106, after briefly dipping to $59,062 during the session. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy and further sway the performance of risk assets.
According to Cryptopolitan, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Attorney General Kwame Raoul, among other officials, in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois over the state’s newly signed SB3019 bill. The bill requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level operating licenses and imposes a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions involving Illinois residents; it is set to take effect on July 1. Kalshi argues that, as a CFTC-registered platform, it is protected under the Commodity Exchange Act, which grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over exchange-traded derivatives—a federal authority that conflicts with the state-level regulatory framework. The company has also sought both a temporary restraining order and a permanent injunction to prevent the bill from taking effect as scheduled.
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
this week that Kalshi has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Governor JB Pritzker, and other state officials.Kalshi stated that the state's budget bill, SB3019, which requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level licenses and is set to take effect on July 1, conflicts with the federal preemption provision of the Commodity Exchange Act, putting it in a position of either violating federal or state law. According to Kalshi, if it ceases to offer sports event contracts in Illinois to comply with the bill, it would violate the uniformity requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and harm its business interests. Kalshi has requested the court to grant a temporary restraining order, a preliminary injunction, and a permanent injunction to prevent Illinois from enforcing the law. (The Block)
According to the latest macro-trend report released by QCP Group, market focus is shifting from the “signing-related optimism” surrounding multiple macro events toward post-signing execution risks. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed; Brent crude oil prices have retreated below USD 80 per barrel, easing tail risks. However, traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains at just 14 transits—well below normal levels—and a 60-day technical negotiation window has now opened. Market pricing is pivoting toward actual tanker flow volumes and progress on compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The Federal Reserve unanimously held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled its intention to keep rates higher for longer. The median dot-plot projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8% (up from 3.4%), with the range widened to 3.4%–4.4%; forward guidance was simultaneously scrapped. Core PCE inflation forecasts stand at 3.30%, and headline PCE at 3.82%—both above target—confirming that inflation—not growth—remains the primary constraint. Following its IPO, SpaceX’s stock price has declined approximately 27% from its peak of USD 211 to USD 155, yet it remains 14.5% above its IPO price of USD 135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic: its USD 20 billion note issuance is earmarked to refinance an xAI bridge loan, while the ~USD 60 billion Anysphere/Cursor transaction converts equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is now being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle. In the crypto market, S
South Korea has incorporated tokenized securities into its comprehensive capital market reform framework. The Financial Services Commission (FSC) recently launched the Capital Market Infrastructure Review Meeting to coordinate reforms—including accelerating securities settlement, extending trading hours, and advancing digital transformation. Under the plan, the tokenized securities framework will officially take effect in February 2027, and related subordinate regulations are expected to be open for public consultation in July this year. Regarding infrastructure development, Samsung SDS has secured a contract from the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to develop a tokenized securities management platform, integrating the existing electronic securities account system with blockchain data; the platform is also scheduled for completion by February 2027.