News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Cryptopolitan, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Attorney General Kwame Raoul, among other officials, in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois over the state’s newly signed SB3019 bill. The bill requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level operating licenses and imposes a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions involving Illinois residents; it is set to take effect on July 1. Kalshi argues that, as a CFTC-registered platform, it is protected under the Commodity Exchange Act, which grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over exchange-traded derivatives—a federal authority that conflicts with the state-level regulatory framework. The company has also sought both a temporary restraining order and a permanent injunction to prevent the bill from taking effect as scheduled.
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
this week that Kalshi has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Governor JB Pritzker, and other state officials.Kalshi stated that the state's budget bill, SB3019, which requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level licenses and is set to take effect on July 1, conflicts with the federal preemption provision of the Commodity Exchange Act, putting it in a position of either violating federal or state law. According to Kalshi, if it ceases to offer sports event contracts in Illinois to comply with the bill, it would violate the uniformity requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and harm its business interests. Kalshi has requested the court to grant a temporary restraining order, a preliminary injunction, and a permanent injunction to prevent Illinois from enforcing the law. (The Block)
According to the latest macro-trend report released by QCP Group, market focus is shifting from the “signing-related optimism” surrounding multiple macro events toward post-signing execution risks. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed; Brent crude oil prices have retreated below USD 80 per barrel, easing tail risks. However, traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains at just 14 transits—well below normal levels—and a 60-day technical negotiation window has now opened. Market pricing is pivoting toward actual tanker flow volumes and progress on compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The Federal Reserve unanimously held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled its intention to keep rates higher for longer. The median dot-plot projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8% (up from 3.4%), with the range widened to 3.4%–4.4%; forward guidance was simultaneously scrapped. Core PCE inflation forecasts stand at 3.30%, and headline PCE at 3.82%—both above target—confirming that inflation—not growth—remains the primary constraint. Following its IPO, SpaceX’s stock price has declined approximately 27% from its peak of USD 211 to USD 155, yet it remains 14.5% above its IPO price of USD 135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic: its USD 20 billion note issuance is earmarked to refinance an xAI bridge loan, while the ~USD 60 billion Anysphere/Cursor transaction converts equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is now being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle. In the crypto market, S
South Korea has incorporated tokenized securities into its comprehensive capital market reform framework. The Financial Services Commission (FSC) recently launched the Capital Market Infrastructure Review Meeting to coordinate reforms—including accelerating securities settlement, extending trading hours, and advancing digital transformation. Under the plan, the tokenized securities framework will officially take effect in February 2027, and related subordinate regulations are expected to be open for public consultation in July this year. Regarding infrastructure development, Samsung SDS has secured a contract from the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to develop a tokenized securities management platform, integrating the existing electronic securities account system with blockchain data; the platform is also scheduled for completion by February 2027.
Ophelia Snyder, co-founder of 21Shares, stated that although tokenization can address practical issues such as settlement efficiency and asset liquidity, there remains a significant cognitive gap between the crypto industry and traditional financial institutions regarding this topic.She pointed out that the greater challenge currently lies in integrating blockchain assets with the existing systems of banks, brokerages, and asset management companies. Market discussions often overlook the operational环节 between trade execution and final settlement. While the blockchain industry has made progress in transaction throughput, it still falls short of meeting the demands of traditional financial institutions in areas such as bookkeeping, compliance processes, regulatory reporting, and risk management for 24/7 trading.Ophelia Snyder also noted that most financial institutions rely on third-party software vendors that have yet to fully adapt their systems for blockchain-native transactions. She believes the biggest bottleneck the industry currently faces is achieving large-scale adoption, rather than the functionality itself. (CoinDesk)
Greece rejected Binance's authorization application under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, possibly due to political pressure exerted by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.Binance submitted its application to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission earlier in 2026, established a holding company locally, and had already passed key technical reviews. However, the application was swiftly overturned between June 7 and June 15, 2026. During a meeting in May, Lagarde told Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis that Europe does not welcome Binance. The reason is that Binance, as a dominant platform providing stablecoin liquidity, is considered by some policymakers to be large enough to potentially complicate the European Central Bank's push for the digital euro project.With the Greek route blocked, Binance has shifted its focus to France in an effort to obtain a MiCA license. (crowdfundinsider)
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to introduce a new policy that would allow crypto companies to offer blockchain-based tokenized stock trading, potentially having a significant impact on the traditional stock market structure. According to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, companies will be permitted to experiment with new digital asset business models, including the tokenization of US stocks, without fully complying with existing disclosure and investor protection rules.However, the proposal has also raised concerns among traditional financial institutions such as Citadel Securities and SIFMA, who argue that such changes could divert liquidity and create regulatory arbitrage risks. As of now, the SEC has not made any public comments on the matter. (Reuters)
Hester Peirce, Commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), shared her views on perpetual contracts, prediction markets, and the future of digital asset regulation—overall adopting a positive and open tone. Peirce revisited the Rule 611 “trade-through” proposal, which has been under discussion for roughly two decades, noting that the so-called “innovation exemption” mechanism would be deliberately designed to be strict and narrowly tailored, striking a balance between market innovation and investor protection. She emphasized that clearer regulatory frameworks—not outright restrictions or ambiguous oversight—should govern emerging financial products such as tokenized securities, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. She also underscored two core principles: self-custody and financial privacy must serve as foundational rights within future regulatory systems and must be integrated into the design of subsequent digital asset regulatory regimes.
According to Forbes, as the 2026 U.S. primaries advance, political donations from the crypto industry have surged significantly. Protect Progress—a Democratic super PAC backed by the Fairshake network—is continuously channeling funds into candidates across several key districts, sparking controversy over “political narrative packaging.” Disclosures show that in the Maryland House of Delegates race alone, Protect Progress has contributed over $4.9 million to candidate Adrian Boafo; similar funding has also flowed to multiple Democratic candidates in Texas and Georgia. Meanwhile, Congress is advancing the Digital Asset Market Structure Act (the CLARITY Act), and the progress of this legislation further elevates the importance of primary election outcomes. Analysts contend that the crypto industry’s influence within the U.S. political system continues to expand, with several senators and candidates publicly endorsing regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
the bond market is signaling increasingly restrictive interest rate expectations, which may continue to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed to approximately 28 basis points, its tightest level since April 2025, indicating a clear flattening of the yield curve. This shift is widely interpreted as a heightened market expectation of tighter monetary policy or “higher for longer” interest rates.Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of the policy research organization EmployAmerica, noted that this flattening trend is "one of the clearest market signals that the Federal Reserve is becoming more hawkish." In a more hawkish interest rate environment, the market anticipates rates remaining elevated for a longer period, which enhances the appeal of fixed-income assets and diminishes the investment demand for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.Beyond the 10-year to 2-year spread, the gap between the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields has also fallen to its lowest level since last April, further reinforcing the overall flattening trend of the yield curve.Market participants believe this change represents a significant reversal from the environment earlier this year, which was characterized by a steepening curve and bets on rate cuts. In the latest round of policy signals, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but its dot plot indicated a higher projected path for future rates compared to previous forecasts, with median interest rate expectations shifting upward across the board, strengthening the “higher for longer” narrative.Analysts suggest that if the high-interest-rate environment persists, risk assets like Bitcoin may struggle to stage a strong upward trend in the short term. The market could enter a phase of volatile downward pressure, intersecting with certain bottoming expectations tied to the halving cycle. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional wait-and-see sentiment, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current US inflation is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.Pressure is also emerging simultaneously on the chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to escalate, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying power.Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying momentum.Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that the recent Bitcoin rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is considered to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.Overall, the current market presents a combination of "macro wait-and-see, marginal institutional weakening, and heightened derivatives defense." The short-term direction still depends on FOMC policy signals and the potential return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)
According to Cryptopolitan, Ivan Chebeskov, Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia, stated during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2026) that USDC will be added to Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency list alongside BTC, ETH, and USDT—previously approved cryptocurrencies. He also revealed that smaller stablecoins pegged to currencies of “friendly jurisdictions,” such as the Russian ruble or the UAE dirham, may also be granted market access. Russia’s draft “Law on Digital Currency and Digital Rights” must be finalized by July 1; upon enactment, non-accredited investors will gain legal access to cryptocurrency investments for the first time—though with an annual investment cap of 300,000 rubles (approximately USD 4,000).
According to The Block, State Street has launched the State Street Stablecoin Reserves Money Market Fund (SSCXX), an asset management tool for stablecoin issuers’ reserves. This fund is a Rule 2a-7 government money market fund that primarily invests in cash, short-term U.S. Treasury securities, repurchase agreements, and other cash equivalents, aiming to preserve principal, provide daily liquidity, and maintain a stable $1.00 net asset value per share.
The global financial market's attention will be focused on Washington this week as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first post-confirmation FOMC press conference. This marks not only his transition from a policy commentator to the "world's most powerful banker," but also a critical window for the outside world to observe whether a major shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy is underway.The market widely expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during this week's meeting. Compared to the specific rate decision, the market is more focused on how Warsh will reshape the Fed's "art of communication." For a long time, former Chair Powell tended to guide market expectations through transparent "forward guidance," but Warsh has previously expressed reservations about this approach publicly, arguing that the Fed should not provide too many interest rate hints to the market.This meeting will also release the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the "dot plot." For Warsh, who has a strong aversion to the dot plot, this is undoubtedly an awkward beginning, as he must find a balance between respecting the Fed's decision-making mechanism and articulating his own policy preferences. (Reuters)
the crypto market hopes to shake off months of geopolitical pressure this week. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, Bitcoin rose to near $66,000 on Monday, up about 3.5% from Friday. Crypto-related stocks such as Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) also advanced in pre-market trading.However, the market remains cautious, as past ceasefire agreements have often collapsed. The April truce failed to hold, and last month's US military action broke another round of peace talks, which also dragged down crypto asset prices at the time.This week, the spotlight will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over the first rate-setting meeting, with the market widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.Analysts point out that the release of the new “dot plot” (showing Fed officials' interest rate expectations) and the shortened trading day due to the Juneteenth holiday on Friday could reduce market liquidity. This week's economic data and Fed policy guidance will determine whether the crypto market can sustain a rebound on the back of easing geopolitical risks. (CoinDesk)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
According to The Wall Street Journal, Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s new chair, advocates reducing forward guidance, the dot plot, and frequent public speeches by officials—preferring instead to let markets price assets with fewer policy signals, thereby enhancing the flexibility of monetary policy. Given that the Iran war has driven up energy prices and inflation remains elevated, Warsh has limited room for adjustments to interest-rate policy in the near term; thus, reforming communication mechanisms may become a top priority early in his tenure.
the Market Oversight Division of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an exemption letter to Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), permitting them to convert their existing "perpetual-like" digital commodity futures contracts into true crypto perpetual futures contracts. This policy is an extension of previous regulatory clarifications and specifically applies to digital commodities such as Bitcoin, which have deep, active, and continuous spot market trading.According to the document, DCMs may remove the expiration date from existing contracts and convert them into true perpetual contracts, provided they meet certain conditions. These requirements include soliciting feedback from position holders, providing advance notice and offering opportunities to close positions, conducting adequate risk disclosures, and ensuring that other key contract terms remain unaltered. Additionally, exchanges must submit amendment filings in accordance with CFTC Rules 40.5 or 40.6 and complete compliance certification.