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Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
data shows the daily spot trading volume of Bitcoin has fallen to below $8 billion, the lowest level since October 2023, when the BTC price was still below $40,000. Glassnode points out that since the peak of over $25 billion in early February this year, trading volume has continued to decline. A low-volume environment typically implies reduced market depth, making it more sensitive to capital flow changes.Market depth is usually measured by the cumulative bids and asks within a 2% range of the current price. When depth contracts, a few large orders can significantly drive price movements, meaning market volatility may be amplified. However, the options market does not currently fully reflect this risk. The Volmex BVIV index shows that Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen below 42% annualized, hitting a three-month low, indicating that traders are generally betting on continued market stability.Analysis suggests that with market sentiment cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $77,800, lacking a clear direction. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, particularly expressing concerns over rising energy prices and inflation risks, it could prolong the pause in rate cuts or even strengthen expectations of a rate hike, thereby suppressing risk asset performance. (CoinDesk)
According to chart analysis by independent analyst Markus Thielen, Bitcoin has weakened for five consecutive months since hitting an all-time high in October 2025, only posting positive returns in March 2026. April is not yet over, but this month’s gains are poised to become Bitcoin’s strongest single-month performance since April 2025—potentially marking its second consecutive month of gains. Analysts note that two successive monthly recoveries have already signaled some degree of repair, and when combined with the historically bullish seasonal pattern from May through July, Bitcoin may continue to receive some support going forward. However, a single-month rebound remains insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, announced in a post that prediction market ETFs are expected to officially launch next week. Roundhill’s related application documents have been submitted, with an effective date set for May 5. The first batch of prediction market ETFs will be based on election outcomes regarding whether the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate will be controlled by the Democratic or Republican Party.
Odaily Odaily News According to the latest weekly report from Gate Ventures, there are signs of a staged recovery at the macro level. While major stock indices showed divergent performance, the overall trend was upward, and market risk appetite has somewhat improved. Against this backdrop, the crypto market rebounded in tandem, with BTC rising by 6.6% and ETH by 4.7%. They also recorded net spot ETF inflows of approximately $823.7 million and $155 million respectively, indicating a strengthening return of capital. The total market capitalization increased by 5.2%, while the market cap excluding BTC and ETH grew by 2.6%, suggesting that upward momentum is beginning to spread to a broader range of assets, albeit at a relatively moderate pace.In terms of asset and sector dynamics, structural opportunities continue to emerge. The top 30 assets averaged a 4.2% increase. Meanwhile, advancements at the on-chain and industry levels are persisting, including ongoing developments in digital currency infrastructure and asset tokenization. Regarding investment and financing, 12 transactions were completed last week, with a total disclosed financing amount of approximately $54.89 million, representing a month-over-month increase of about 31%. Capital primarily flowed into DeFi and infrastructure sectors. Notably, JPYC secured $17.62 million in funding to advance the infrastructure development of its yen-backed stablecoin. 3F completed a $4 million seed funding round, with participants including Gate Ventures. Against the backdrop of a marginally improving macro environment, investment and financing activity has picked up, with capital still focusing on long-term application scenarios and foundational capability building amidst volatile conditions.
Odaily Bernstein stated in a research report that the cryptocurrency market is currently showing signs of fundamental strengthening. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has formed a bottom near $60,000 and is now advancing toward the $80,000 mark. Institutional capital inflows, MicroStrategy's continued accumulation of Bitcoin through STRC products, and the deep integration of blockchain with financial infrastructure collectively create an asymmetric upside potential.Bernstein emphasized that new distribution channels from Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot trading platform have broadened participation. Currently, approximately 60% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in over a year, with institutional demand reinforcing its holding base. Additionally, stablecoin supply has reached a record high of $300 billion, with its payment and settlement demand decoupling from market sentiment. The tokenized real-world asset sector has grown 110% year-over-year to $345 billion. Although quantum computing poses a long-term risk, analysts believe the industry has ample time to undergo a secure transition.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. Bitcoin’s recent low of $60,000 has formed a clear bottom, and with the current price approaching $80,000, a longer-term structural bull market is likely, driven by institutional demand. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani highlighted the following key drivers: • Ongoing expansion of institutional channels: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab’s spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have both recently launched; approximately 60% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for over one year, indicating a stabilizing holder structure; • Persistent accumulation by Strategy: Its STRC perpetual preferred stock product has attracted yield-oriented investors, and its current holdings stand at 818,334 BTC; • Stablecoin demand hits an all-time high: Stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the crypto market’s price cycle and reflecting sustained real-world payment and settlement demand; • Tokenized real-world assets accelerating growth: Tokenized private credit and Treasury assets now total $34.5 billion, representing a 110% year-on-year increase. Bernstein also cautioned that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, though it expects the blockchain ecosystem to have ample time to complete the transition to post-quantum security.
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.
according to official sources, OKX Agent Trade Kit has launched the "Smart Money Signal Suite," which integrates the real-time positions, win rates, and profit/loss data of over 1,000 popular traders from OKX Star and packages them as signal tools callable by AI Agents. This suite supports long/short market analysis and allows for multi-dimensional analysis including capital weighting, trader screening, and signal quality evaluation. Additionally, the system can track trend changes and sentiment shifts, providing auxiliary support for trading decisions. These features have been integrated into the Agent Trade Kit, and users can access them after upgrading to the latest version.It is reported that OKX Agent Trade Kit is an open-source exchange MCP toolset designed for AI Agents and professional traders. It previously launched suites such as "Skill Square," "Market Screening and Open Interest Analysis," and "Sentiment Radar."
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that, following the market pressure release in spring, selling pressure from short-term holders (STH) has significantly eased. The Bitcoin market’s recovery remains ongoing, with the current price approaching the STH cost basis. The key catalyst for the next leg of price movement lies in whether Bitcoin can sustainably hold above the ~$83,000 STH cost level. Only a confirmed breakout and stabilization above this level will allow the market to further validate the actual selling pressure from short-term holders—and determine whether such pressure will re-emerge to suppress prices again.
on-chain analytics platform Arkham posted on X, stating that the Ethereum Foundation has unstaked approximately $48.9 million worth of ETH. Tracking data shows that the Ethereum Foundation has deposited WSTETH into Lido's unstETH contract and will receive the corresponding ETH once the unlocking process is complete.The market's focus is on whether the Ethereum Foundation will proceed to sell the ETH obtained from this unstaking. Previously, the Ethereum Foundation has sold ETH on multiple occasions for operational fund management, drawing ongoing market attention to potential selling pressure.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, who disclosed the information on X, Bitwise filed applications on Friday morning for four new prediction-market ETFs tied to recession and tech-sector layoffs. All four ETFs are binary-outcome products, specifically: • A recession will occur in 2026 • A recession will not occur in 2026 • Tech-sector layoffs in 2026 will exceed those in 2025 • Tech-sector layoffs in 2026 will be fewer than those in 2025
Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, stated that the Bitcoin winter has ended, as Bitcoin’s price has held above $78,000. Market analyst Mati Greenspan believes the recent market downturn should not be labeled a “crypto winter,” but rather a sharp correction within a broader bull market—and added that Bitcoin has likely already bottomed out, with its next leg up potentially driven by both institutional and sovereign adoption. The report notes that Strategy recently acquired 13,927 additional bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 BTC. Greenspan also indicated that sovereign adoption—specifically central banks adding Bitcoin to their reserve assets—could be a key driver in the next phase.
Bitcoin is once again approaching the $80,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that this level has become a key resistance point to test the strength of the current rebound. On the capital front, continued institutional inflows are providing support. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen inflows for nine straight days, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively added approximately 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013, and exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest point in seven years.In terms of on-chain data, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has reclaimed the "Realized Price" (approximately $78,100). However, the cost basis for short-term holders sits around $80,100, forming a direct pressure zone. Should the price reach this range, over 54% of short-term investors would be in profit, a scenario historically associated with the peak of a rebound phase. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating a significant short position. Given the ongoing improvement in spot demand, this could provide short-squeeze momentum for a subsequent upward move.In summary, while the capital structure and market resilience have improved, the $80,000 level remains a key watershed. The market has yet to confirm whether it can transition from a resistance level to a support level. (The Block)
According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai9684xtpa), Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, stated this morning at 07:21 that he sold 83.7 million SPK tokens last year and is now “somewhat regretful.” Subsequently, Upbit officially announced the listing of SPK at 10:20, and Spark announced at 20:06 that the total staked SPK supply had exceeded 500 million tokens. Market data shows SPK surged up to 73% within 24 hours and topped Binance’s gainers list.
Garrett Jin, agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” published an analysis pointing out that the current market is pricing in “peace expectations,” driving sustained gains in risk assets—but this is markedly diverging from the actual supply-demand dynamics in the energy market. Data shows the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high, while Brent crude oil has rebounded to approximately $103 per barrel. Earlier in March, hedge funds aggressively shorted the market; Goldman Sachs data indicated a short-to-long ratio peaking at 7.6:1—the fastest net selling pace in 13 years. Yet the core assumptions underpinning the market rally—resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts—remain unfulfilled. The gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has surged to levels last seen at the 2021 peak; historically, similar gaps have preceded bear markets, such as the 2022 downturn.
Odaily News Grayscale analyst Zach Pandl disclosed data showing that Bitcoin has rebounded over 20% from its low of around $63,000 in early February. The current price is approximately $76,000, slightly above the average cost (realized price) of about $74,000 for buyers over the past 1 to 3 months. This means most short-term investors have returned to the break-even range.Analysis suggests that if the price rises further, more recent buyers will enter a profitable state, which is often considered one of the important signals in the early stages of a bull market. However, Bitcoin remains below its high from last October. Market views indicate that this round of recovery may have formed a relatively solid interim bottom in the range of $65,000 to $70,000.