News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Former US Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC stated that Santos engaged in manipulative trading behavior while trading a prediction contract on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February 2026, profiting over $17,500 from the trades.According to the CFTC's Friday announcement, Santos is required to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, but neither admitted nor denied the regulator's findings.The CFTC stated that in the two weeks leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos repeatedly made public comments about whether he would attend the event, causing significant fluctuations in the price of the event contract. For example, while holding a "Yes" position indicating he would attend, he posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos closed his position for a profit.The CFTC also alleged that Santos subsequently continued to post updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., including flights and train rides, and profited by trading back and forth based on market reactions to his public statements. The CFTC stated that Santos's conduct was intentional, or at least reckless. He traded in an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions of information, thereby profiting from his trading positions.Santos's attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated in Friday's announcement that the State of the Union contract was Santos's first foray into prediction market betting.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
CME Group, the operator of the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Mike Selig last month, opposing the regulator's approval for prediction market platform Kalshi and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to launch crypto perpetual contracts. Non-US perpetual contracts achieved a trading volume of $60 trillion last year. CME argues that the CFTC misclassified the relevant products and improperly applied the law, claiming that futures should have an expiration date, whereas perpetual contracts allow traders to establish leveraged positions on the future price of an asset without an expiration limit. CME also contends that the products harm its longer-dated futures business and that the CFTC failed to adequately consider the impact. The dispute between the parties intensified during the early stages of the Iran conflict, when demand rose for 24-hour crude oil perpetual contracts on offshore DeFi exchanges like Hyperliquid, as well as for on-chain prediction market trading related to the crude oil market. CME subsequently applied to accelerate the launch of 24-hour West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures trading but was blocked by the CFTC. Kalshi, after launching its first related product last month, stated that its trading volume exceeded $1 billion in less than a week. The CFTC is currently advancing the U.S. perpetual contracts market through policy statements and case-by-case reviews, rather than through new rulemaking procedures.
Odaily reports: After perpetual futures entered the regulated US market, Wall Street institutions are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Bank of America estimates that the global annual trading volume of perpetual futures is approximately 90 trillion USD; within a week of Kalshi launching perpetual futures in June, trading volume exceeded 1 billion USD. Perpetual futures are similar to standard futures but have no expiration date, meaning traders do not need to close or roll over positions monthly or quarterly. Instead, periodic funding rates keep the contract price close to the underlying asset. On May 29, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Kalshi to offer such contracts, and Coinbase also received approval to list regulated perpetual futures in the US. Insiders say that large financial institutions are still studying these products, with proprietary trading firms, market makers, and emerging clearing firms likely to be the first to participate. Large banks face stricter capital rules, client obligations, and reputational risks, and typically wait for years of data, clear regulatory treatment, and stable infrastructure. Perpetual futures may also be used to manage weekend risk, but market depth remains a concern. Industry insiders note that regulatory disagreements are emerging over whether certain contracts should be classified as futures or swaps, and CME has already challenged the CFTC's handling of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contract.
预测市场运营商 Kalshi 于 7 月 24 日向 Netflix 发出停止侵权函，指控其新纪录片《Instadocs: The Prediction Games》预告片构成诽谤，并要求在 7 月 26 日影片首映前撤下预告片并公开更正。 Kalshi 称，预告片使用了一张伪造的交易单，暗示其允许内华达州体育博彩，且违反州法院命令。该公司表示，画面中的收据日期为 2025 年 5 月 16 日，电话界面显示“crop”，并不符合其平台样式。 Netflix 否认伪造画面，表示相关交易发生在 2025 年 5 月、内华达限制生效前，场景拍摄于拉斯维加斯一场私人活动。内华达监管机构要求 Kalshi 在 8 月 12 日前完成地理围栏部署，否则需按每天 12 万美元支付罚款。
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
According to PR Newswire, institutional digital asset infrastructure provider Talos announced the completion of its integration with CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, enabling institutional clients to directly trade Kalshi event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts via the existing Talos interface without requiring additional access. Talos has launched two core features for this: first, an algorithmic trading suite for market makers and hedge funds (including strategies such as TWAP and POV), supporting spread trading between perpetual contracts and between perpetual contracts and spot; second, a block OTC trading interface based on the RFQ platform, connecting the OTC liquidity provider network.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated prediction market operator Kalshi, allowing some clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts through existing digital asset trading infrastructure without needing a separate connection. Talos will provide algorithmic order types such as Iceberg, TWAP, and POV, as well as multi-leg execution for perpetual-to-perpetual and perpetual-to-spot spread trades. Institutional clients can also execute block trades of Kalshi contracts through its RFQ platform using participating OTC liquidity providers. Talos plans to expand its trading software to brokers and trading platforms later this year, enabling them to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to their clients upon authorization, and to launch a unified prediction market data feed that standardizes events, trades, order books, open interest, and implied probabilities across multiple platforms. A CoinGecko report shows that the prediction market recorded a notional trading volume of $113.8 billion in Q2, a 48.7% quarter-over-quarter increase; notional trading volume in June reached $52.8 billion, setting a new monthly record. Kalshi's market share rose from 42.4% in Q1 to 58.9%, while Polymarket's fell from 35.8% to 30.2%.
that, according to Daniel Wallach, a U.S. Washington State court has issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ruling that its operations violate Washington state gambling laws and constitute illegal gambling activities; moreover, the Commodity Exchange Act does not have the authority to supersede state-level gambling laws.
According to The Block, Bernstein stated that before the compliant computing power futures planned by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are approved, AI computing power derivatives adopting crypto market mechanisms have already launched. Currently, Architect's offshore trading platform AX has launched GPU perpetual futures, while Kalshi has listed GPU rental price event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Odaily, Polymarket-based DeFi startup Gondor has announced the launch of Gondor v1, claiming it will be the first margin account product for Polymarket. The version is expected to go live publicly in September.Gondor v1 will allow users to manage cross-margining across their entire Polymarket portfolio, using the full portfolio as collateral for loans. Users can then use the credit line to purchase more prediction market shares, achieving higher capital efficiency and leverage operations.This marks an expansion from the beta version Gondor launched seven months ago. The previous product primarily allowed users to take out loans against individual Polymarket positions, while v1 expands the collateral scope to the entire portfolio.Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically operate on a full collateral model, requiring users to deposit the entire risk amount upfront and lock up funds until the event is settled. Gondor aims to unlock this locked capital through portfolio margining and lending mechanisms, allowing users to gain additional liquidity and continue placing bets without immediately selling their positions.
: Prediction market platform Kalshi has officially launched the beta version of its professional trading terminal, Kalshi Pro. The product is targeted at high-frequency, professional event traders to meet real-time trading demands across multiple markets. The terminal is equipped with several institutional-grade features, including real-time public trade data feeds, full order book depth, multi-leg contract calculation, and batch order management. It also introduces professional charting tools and position risk management tools tailored for perpetual contracts. Kalshi Product Lead Andy Chang stated that active traders now view prediction markets and perpetual contracts as standardized trading asset classes comparable to stocks and bonds. Kalshi Pro aims to provide professional investors with the complete suite of institutional trading capabilities they require. (CNBC)
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted that Judge Analisa Torres of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied its preliminary injunction application in the case involving Kalshi, allowing the case to proceed to the motion to dismiss stage. The court held that New York State gambling law applies to Kalshi's sports event contracts, and such application is not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling means Kalshi has suffered another unfavorable setback in the relevant legal dispute.
Odaily Odaily reporter: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his subordinates to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena.Executives said that Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The application will rely on points similar to those in video games, rather than accepting real money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users for the application and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that former U.S. Acting Solicitor General Prelogar, representing the Coalition for Prediction Markets, has submitted an amicus brief supporting Kalshi to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, describing it as a “masterpiece.” Paul Grewal pointed out that the document not only outlines the historical background of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets but also presents three key arguments:1. Prediction markets can uniquely aggregate market information and convert it into simple price signals, collectively aggregated by market participants.2. Users of prediction markets trade at prices that market participants are willing to accept. They cannot control contract prices and bear the legal obligation to provide users with fair access to contracts.3. The laws of various U.S. states are unsuitable for regulating prediction markets because their core objectives are not to maintain fair markets, price discovery, information aggregation, risk hedging, or prevent market manipulation.