News linked to both this project and an event.
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
In response to the first customized commodity trade completed on the Kalshi platform, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X platform, "Historically, the bottleneck for institutional risk transfer has been liquidity. The bottleneck for liquidity is the lack of price benchmarks for each type of relevant risk (e.g., WTI for oil). Kalshi has built a large community of top global superforecasters who rank among the world's best at pricing risk. This allows us to create price benchmarks for a broader range of issues faced by people and institutions. Institutions have already begun adopting these price benchmarks by integrating them into traditional asset pricing models. Although work remains, we are seeing rapid expansion in data use cases and integration.""The next phase is utilizing these price benchmarks to transfer risk via block trades and requests for quote (RFQ). This phase is still in its early stages but is beginning to take shape. The market size for risk transfer of non-traditional financial instruments is difficult to estimate. The closest references are the reinsurance market and the derivatives desks of banks: reinsurance is approximately $700 billion; insurance-linked securities and parametric insurance (such as catastrophe bonds) are around $120-135 billion; bank derivatives (structured products, dealer-to-dealer, exotics, etc.) are about $200-400 billion. The current market is roughly $1-1.5 trillion, but most of it is illiquid and traded over-the-counter (OTC, i.e., with a single counterparty). Whenever a major OTC market moves to exchange trading, the market grows significantly due to the establishment of price benchmarks, narrowing bid-ask spreads, the end of Wall Street elite's monopoly on access, and the entry of new participants. For example, interest rate swaps grew 10-15 times, stock options grew 20-30 times, and energy derivatives grew 5-8 times. The institutional use case for prediction markets could form a $10-15 trillion market, with even greater upside potential, depending on the extent to which it democratizes products currently exclusive to Wall Street."
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on X, citing Bloomberg, that Kalshi has completed its first customized block trade, with Jump Trading providing liquidity support for the transaction. The trade was brokered by Greenlight Commodities this month and executed on behalf of an environmental hedge fund based in Houston, which sought exposure to a contract tracking "whether a specific price will be realized in California's May carbon emissions allowance auction."Mansour commented on this, stating that the institutional application of prediction markets could be a $10-15 trillion market, with growth potential potentially even larger, depending on how extensively they popularize products currently exclusive to Wall Street.
the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.
According to Cointelegraph, Brazilian authorities have announced the blocking of 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood’s prediction feature, and Fanatics Markets. The ban is led by the Ministry of Finance and enforced by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), based on Resolution No. 5,298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on April 25, and will officially take effect in early May. The new regulation explicitly prohibits prediction contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events, deeming them closer in nature to gambling than financial investment; only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices—are permitted. Dario Durigan, Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, stated that prediction markets could exacerbate debt burdens for households and small- and medium-sized enterprises, posing financial risks. Similar restrictions have already been adopted by several countries, including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.
Odaily Pyth Network has announced a major strategic transformation: a comprehensive infrastructure upgrade and a shift in its economic model from token incentives to revenue-driven. According to two core proposals (OP-PIP-100, OP-PIP-103), Pythnet will be gradually shut down by 2026, with focus shifting to the next-generation underlying network Lazer. The OIS staking reward mechanism will be terminated (parameter Y set to 0), while the security slashing mechanism will be retained.Meanwhile, the PYTH Reserve has repurchased approximately 12 million PYTH using protocol revenue. Commercial products (Pyth Pro, Data Markets) have become the core growth drivers, with leading prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi already integrated. Institutional adoption continues to rise.
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
According to an official announcement, Kalshi—a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—has integrated Pyth as the settlement data source for its newly launched Commodities Hub, covering markets including gold, silver, Brent crude oil, natural gas, copper, corn, soybeans, and wheat. Meanwhile, Pyth Pro will provide Kalshi’s market makers with direct access to market data. Kalshi stated that this move aims to support continuous trading and reliable settlement of commodity-related event contracts; Pyth Pro will subsequently expand to additional asset classes, including indices, equities, and foreign exchange.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced plans to launch perpetual futures contracts. Polymarket posted a video on X on Tuesday stating it will list perpetual futures products tied to crypto tokens, U.S. equities, and commodities; Kalshi has a similar plan. Perpetual futures are crypto-native derivatives with no fixed expiration date. It remains unclear whether Polymarket will offer these products in the U.S. market, as such products face relatively strict regulatory restrictions in the United States.
Odaily News Kalshi has launched a 24/7 commodity market, providing price prediction services for commodities including crude oil, diesel, gold, silver, copper, lithium, natural gas, sugar, soybeans, wheat, corn, coffee, cocoa, live cattle, and more.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed an application with a federal court on Tuesday evening seeking to block Arizona from enforcing its state gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi. The two agencies argue that Kalshi’s contracts—tied to real-world events such as sporting events and elections—are, in substance, financial derivatives (swaps) subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and the federal regulatory framework, rather than state-level gambling regulations. Arizona had previously brought criminal charges against Kalshi, with a trial scheduled for April 13. Courts across the country have issued conflicting rulings: the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit (New Jersey) has leaned toward supporting the federal regulatory position, while other district courts have remained open to the state’s arguments.