News linked to both this project and an event.
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.
Barron's reporter Nick Devor posted on X, stating that Kalshi revealed new developments regarding its "perpetual contract" product at today's Kalshi Perpetuals event. Perpetual contracts are now open to the public (currently supporting 11 tokens), and its proprietary trading terminal, Kalshi Pro, will be launched later this summer.
investment firm Bernstein has released a report indicating that the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in North America, is expected to drive up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital.Bernstein analysts pointed out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercially launch its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera. Institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, on the Myriad platform, Spain and France have the highest odds of winning. (Decrypt)
CNBC recently covered Kalshi Perpetual Contracts, noting that trading volume surpassed $1 billion within the first week of launch. Kalshi's crypto division head John Wang subsequently posted on X: "Kalshi Perps hit $1 billion in trading volume in the first week, and the product hasn't even been publicly released yet." He also pointed out that it took prediction markets 3.5 years to reach a similar volume scale. Polymarket team member Mustafa Aljadery appeared in the comments section to congratulate, while also inquiring about the Perpetual Contracts' OI (open interest) data, insinuating that Kalshi's trading volume might have been manipulated.Additionally, many community members in the comments expressed doubts about this data, emphasizing that it could be volume generated from zero-fee or leveraged trading. Some even pointed out that Kalshi's OI data stood at only around $4.5 million.
as prediction market trading volume grows, institutional capital is entering this sector. Quantitative trading firms such as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are forming dedicated prediction market trading teams, recently posting relevant job openings to focus on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. These teams aim to capture pricing deviation profits through cross-platform arbitrage, market microstructure arbitrage, and news-driven trading strategies. Industry insiders believe that as the prediction market expands and on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid plan to launch prediction market products, a competition centered on latency, liquidity, and cross-platform efficiency has already begun. (CoinDesk)
Digital trading platform Moomoo has announced a partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi to offer eligible users access to event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can trade contracts related to major events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, elections, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup directly through the Moomoo platform.Event contracts are exchange-traded derivatives that allow investors to bet on the outcome of specific events. Contract prices range from $0.01 to $1, reflecting the market's expectation of the probability of each event occurring. These products will be integrated into the platform alongside Moomoo's existing offerings of stocks, options, and ETFs. Additionally, Moomoo has recently launched cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal functionality, as well as the moomoo API Skills service for AI-powered investment tools, continuing to expand its product ecosystem. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket believes competitor Kalshi may have engaged in industrial espionage targeting its New York office and employees. Polymarket's marketing head confirmed the company is conducting an internal investigation, stating there are "too many coincidences" and suspecting Kalshi of malicious intent.According to reports, Polymarket has internally compiled a file named "The Imitators," documenting approximately a dozen suspicious incidents. These include Polymarket's original plan to launch a free grocery pop-up event on February 12, while Kalshi launched a similar event approximately nine days earlier. Additionally, Polymarket was scheduled to announce its perpetual contract product plans on April 21, but about an hour before the announcement, tech media outlet The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing to launch a similar product.Polymarket employees are also concerned that the office of venture capital firm Paradigm, which supports Kalshi, is located directly opposite their workspace, potentially allowing for monitoring of employees' computer screens. It is reported that Polymarket installed window film on some office windows this spring.In response, a Kalshi spokesperson denied all allegations, calling Polymarket's suspicions "pathetic and bordering on delusional." (New York Post)
prediction market platform Kalshi announced on platform X that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially online. This marks the first U.S. regulatory-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract product. The product is a perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin and is classified as a futures contract. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously stated that, following review, the BTCPERP contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and relevant regulatory requirements, including the core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCM).
Odaily News, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Market Participants Division today issued an interpretive opinion and a "No-Action Letter" in response to an application from Coinbase Financial Markets, allowing it to offer trading services for certain digital commodity derivatives through its affiliated offshore trading platform, Deribit. CFTC staff confirmed that, based on the framework approved for Kalshi's BTCPERP contract on May 29, 2026, relevant crypto perpetual contracts can be classified as "foreign futures" as defined under Regulation 30.1.Simultaneously, under the fulfillment of specific conditions, the CFTC's Market Participants Division stated it does not recommend enforcement action against Coinbase Financial Markets. This allows Coinbase to transfer customer-held digital commodities and stablecoins, used as margin, to its affiliated offshore broker-dealer to support trading positions in foreign futures and options, even if the relevant offshore broker-dealer has the right to rehypothecate these assets.Analysts believe this statement further clarifies the classification path for crypto perpetual contracts within the U.S. regulatory framework and provides institutional space for compliant entities to access derivatives trading through offshore liquidity markets.
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an approval order to KalshiEX, LLC, a designated contract market (DCM), allowing it to list the perpetual contract BTCPERP, which references the spot price of Bitcoin, for trading as a futures product. The contract was submitted for review on May 29, 2026, pursuant to CFTC Regulation 40.3.The CFTC reviewed the BTCPERP contract under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and relevant regulations, confirming that it complies with the CEA and CFTC rules, including core principles applicable to DCMs. The approval order requires Kalshi to strictly adhere to the CEA and all relevant CFTC regulations when listing and maintaining the contract.The CFTC also noted that the perpetual contract structure is not suitable for all asset classes and encouraged market participants to voluntarily submit applications for perpetual contract approval under the 40.3 rulemaking for uncovered assets to ensure compliance and robust market development.
According to CoinDesk, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit challenging a new Minnesota law set to take effect on August 1 that criminalizes operating, hosting, or promoting prediction market platforms. Kalshi argues the law is unconstitutional, asserting it infringes upon the Commodity Exchange Act’s grant of exclusive federal jurisdiction over derivatives markets to the CFTC and violates the First Amendment by restricting advertising. Earlier, on May 19, the CFTC filed a motion making the same constitutional challenge against the state law. U.S. President Trump has also publicly voiced support for the CFTC’s sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Kalshi previously secured preliminary injunctions in similar enforcement actions brought by New Jersey and Arizona.
According to The Block, the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has received the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) proposed rulemaking notice on prediction markets and is currently reviewing it. The CFTC stated it will provide further details after the interagency review process concludes. Recently, Trump publicly endorsed CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s position that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Over the past year, the CFTC has consistently reinforced its regulatory claims over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits against five states—Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York—seeking to restrict Kalshi and Polymarket. TD Cowen believes Trump’s statement is unlikely to alter the legal dispute surrounding this matter in federal court.
the Spanish government is taking action to block Polymarket and Kalshi, stating that the two prediction market platforms are operating in the country without obtaining gambling licenses, allegedly violating the law. Spain's consumer affairs department stated that it has issued preventive blocking orders targeting the websites of Polymarket and Kalshi. Officials will investigate suspected violations of gambling laws, with the relevant procedures expected to last three to four months.The Spanish Gambling Regulatory Authority stated that when prediction platforms allow users to place bets on uncertain outcomes, they carry gambling risks, and companies seeking to offer such services require specific administrative licenses. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi have not responded to requests for comment. (WSJ)
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
Odaily Despite warnings and related bans issued by the Indian government, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket still allow Indian users to register and trade.According to reports, India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology stated in a letter last month that Indian users are still accessing "illegal and already blocked prediction markets and online entertainment platforms." The relevant announcement was subsequently published on the ministry's official website, specifically naming "Polymarket and other similar websites," stating that these platforms should have been blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs). (Bloomberg)