News linked to both this project and an event.
data released by a16z crypto shows prediction market trading volume has set a new all-time high for the third consecutive week. Last week, total market trading volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from approximately $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. The previous peak of around $10 billion was set just a week prior. Additionally, open interest rose to $1.6 billion, hitting a new record for the third straight week, indicating that the pace of new position opening continues to outpace closing, resulting in ever-expanding capital exposure. Notably, growth in non-sports markets—covering areas such as macroeconomics and unexpected events—has been particularly pronounced. Last week, combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, already surpassing the total volume of all prediction market categories last year.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Odaily Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Michael Selig in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, concerning the agency's routine approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures. The lawsuit stems from the CFTC’s May 29 approval of a perpetual futures contract linked to the spot price of Bitcoin by prediction market platform Kalshi, and the issuance of a no-action position for a similar product on the Coinbase exchange. In the filing, CME argues that the CFTC's treatment of "futures" with expiration dates as "swaps" violates directives from the U.S. Congress and the Commodity Exchange Act, and requests the court to invalidate the relevant perpetual futures actions. CME also claims that Selig acted unilaterally without a full panel of five commissioners. A CFTC spokesperson stated that CME is waging a "legal battle" against the agency and the government’s crypto policy, calling the lawsuit "frivolous." Kraken has also announced the launch of perpetual futures trading for U.S. users via the CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.
According to CoinDesk, the Kentucky Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting services without proper licensing in the state. The complaint also alleges that the relevant platforms and their partners failed to provide gambling addiction support resources as required by state law.
Odaily Odaily, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said in an interview with FOX: "Honestly, when I think of our competitors, it's not Polymarket I think of the most, but some other platforms. We are surrounded by a group of competitors."In a follow-up interview, Tarek primarily mentioned CME and Robinhood. CME previously assisted gambling giant FanDuel in launching its own prediction market product, while Robinhood has also launched its in-house prediction market, Rothera. Additionally, Tarek also mentioned DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase.
Odaily Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have announced plans to accelerate the deployment of anti-fraud measures during the World Cup to combat potential fraudulent groups, while continuing to expand the coverage of tradable events.According to reports, both companies are introducing more real-world events into prediction markets to enhance user engagement and market liquidity. As transaction volumes continue to grow, related fraudulent activities have also increased. It is reported that Kalshi's annualized revenue reached approximately $1.5 billion in May of this year. (The Information)
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.
Barron's reporter Nick Devor posted on X, stating that Kalshi revealed new developments regarding its "perpetual contract" product at today's Kalshi Perpetuals event. Perpetual contracts are now open to the public (currently supporting 11 tokens), and its proprietary trading terminal, Kalshi Pro, will be launched later this summer.
investment firm Bernstein has released a report indicating that the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in North America, is expected to drive up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital.Bernstein analysts pointed out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercially launch its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera. Institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, on the Myriad platform, Spain and France have the highest odds of winning. (Decrypt)
CNBC recently covered Kalshi Perpetual Contracts, noting that trading volume surpassed $1 billion within the first week of launch. Kalshi's crypto division head John Wang subsequently posted on X: "Kalshi Perps hit $1 billion in trading volume in the first week, and the product hasn't even been publicly released yet." He also pointed out that it took prediction markets 3.5 years to reach a similar volume scale. Polymarket team member Mustafa Aljadery appeared in the comments section to congratulate, while also inquiring about the Perpetual Contracts' OI (open interest) data, insinuating that Kalshi's trading volume might have been manipulated.Additionally, many community members in the comments expressed doubts about this data, emphasizing that it could be volume generated from zero-fee or leveraged trading. Some even pointed out that Kalshi's OI data stood at only around $4.5 million.
as prediction market trading volume grows, institutional capital is entering this sector. Quantitative trading firms such as DRW, Wintermute, and IMC are forming dedicated prediction market trading teams, recently posting relevant job openings to focus on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. These teams aim to capture pricing deviation profits through cross-platform arbitrage, market microstructure arbitrage, and news-driven trading strategies. Industry insiders believe that as the prediction market expands and on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid plan to launch prediction market products, a competition centered on latency, liquidity, and cross-platform efficiency has already begun. (CoinDesk)
Digital trading platform Moomoo has announced a partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi to offer eligible users access to event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users can trade contracts related to major events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, elections, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup directly through the Moomoo platform.Event contracts are exchange-traded derivatives that allow investors to bet on the outcome of specific events. Contract prices range from $0.01 to $1, reflecting the market's expectation of the probability of each event occurring. These products will be integrated into the platform alongside Moomoo's existing offerings of stocks, options, and ETFs. Additionally, Moomoo has recently launched cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal functionality, as well as the moomoo API Skills service for AI-powered investment tools, continuing to expand its product ecosystem. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket believes competitor Kalshi may have engaged in industrial espionage targeting its New York office and employees. Polymarket's marketing head confirmed the company is conducting an internal investigation, stating there are "too many coincidences" and suspecting Kalshi of malicious intent.According to reports, Polymarket has internally compiled a file named "The Imitators," documenting approximately a dozen suspicious incidents. These include Polymarket's original plan to launch a free grocery pop-up event on February 12, while Kalshi launched a similar event approximately nine days earlier. Additionally, Polymarket was scheduled to announce its perpetual contract product plans on April 21, but about an hour before the announcement, tech media outlet The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing to launch a similar product.Polymarket employees are also concerned that the office of venture capital firm Paradigm, which supports Kalshi, is located directly opposite their workspace, potentially allowing for monitoring of employees' computer screens. It is reported that Polymarket installed window film on some office windows this spring.In response, a Kalshi spokesperson denied all allegations, calling Polymarket's suspicions "pathetic and bordering on delusional." (New York Post)
prediction market platform Kalshi announced on platform X that Bitcoin perpetual contracts are now officially online. This marks the first U.S. regulatory-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract product. The product is a perpetual contract referencing the spot price of Bitcoin and is classified as a futures contract. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission previously stated that, following review, the BTCPERP contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and relevant regulatory requirements, including the core principles applicable to Designated Contract Markets (DCM).
Odaily News, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Market Participants Division today issued an interpretive opinion and a "No-Action Letter" in response to an application from Coinbase Financial Markets, allowing it to offer trading services for certain digital commodity derivatives through its affiliated offshore trading platform, Deribit. CFTC staff confirmed that, based on the framework approved for Kalshi's BTCPERP contract on May 29, 2026, relevant crypto perpetual contracts can be classified as "foreign futures" as defined under Regulation 30.1.Simultaneously, under the fulfillment of specific conditions, the CFTC's Market Participants Division stated it does not recommend enforcement action against Coinbase Financial Markets. This allows Coinbase to transfer customer-held digital commodities and stablecoins, used as margin, to its affiliated offshore broker-dealer to support trading positions in foreign futures and options, even if the relevant offshore broker-dealer has the right to rehypothecate these assets.Analysts believe this statement further clarifies the classification path for crypto perpetual contracts within the U.S. regulatory framework and provides institutional space for compliant entities to access derivatives trading through offshore liquidity markets.