News linked to both this project and an event.
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced today that it has issued an approval order to KalshiEX, LLC, a designated contract market (DCM), allowing it to list the perpetual contract BTCPERP, which references the spot price of Bitcoin, for trading as a futures product. The contract was submitted for review on May 29, 2026, pursuant to CFTC Regulation 40.3.The CFTC reviewed the BTCPERP contract under Section 5c(c)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and relevant regulations, confirming that it complies with the CEA and CFTC rules, including core principles applicable to DCMs. The approval order requires Kalshi to strictly adhere to the CEA and all relevant CFTC regulations when listing and maintaining the contract.The CFTC also noted that the perpetual contract structure is not suitable for all asset classes and encouraged market participants to voluntarily submit applications for perpetual contract approval under the 40.3 rulemaking for uncovered assets to ensure compliance and robust market development.
According to CoinDesk, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a federal lawsuit challenging a new Minnesota law set to take effect on August 1 that criminalizes operating, hosting, or promoting prediction market platforms. Kalshi argues the law is unconstitutional, asserting it infringes upon the Commodity Exchange Act’s grant of exclusive federal jurisdiction over derivatives markets to the CFTC and violates the First Amendment by restricting advertising. Earlier, on May 19, the CFTC filed a motion making the same constitutional challenge against the state law. U.S. President Trump has also publicly voiced support for the CFTC’s sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Kalshi previously secured preliminary injunctions in similar enforcement actions brought by New Jersey and Arizona.
According to The Block, the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has received the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) proposed rulemaking notice on prediction markets and is currently reviewing it. The CFTC stated it will provide further details after the interagency review process concludes. Recently, Trump publicly endorsed CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s position that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Over the past year, the CFTC has consistently reinforced its regulatory claims over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits against five states—Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York—seeking to restrict Kalshi and Polymarket. TD Cowen believes Trump’s statement is unlikely to alter the legal dispute surrounding this matter in federal court.
the Spanish government is taking action to block Polymarket and Kalshi, stating that the two prediction market platforms are operating in the country without obtaining gambling licenses, allegedly violating the law. Spain's consumer affairs department stated that it has issued preventive blocking orders targeting the websites of Polymarket and Kalshi. Officials will investigate suspected violations of gambling laws, with the relevant procedures expected to last three to four months.The Spanish Gambling Regulatory Authority stated that when prediction platforms allow users to place bets on uncertain outcomes, they carry gambling risks, and companies seeking to offer such services require specific administrative licenses. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi have not responded to requests for comment. (WSJ)
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
Odaily Despite warnings and related bans issued by the Indian government, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket still allow Indian users to register and trade.According to reports, India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology stated in a letter last month that Indian users are still accessing "illegal and already blocked prediction markets and online entertainment platforms." The relevant announcement was subsequently published on the ministry's official website, specifically naming "Polymarket and other similar websites," stating that these platforms should have been blocked by Internet Service Providers (ISPs). (Bloomberg)
According to Business Wire, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) announced on May 14 the launch of its first unified prediction market trading interface, enabling simultaneous access to three major U.S. prediction market platforms—Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx. Customers no longer need to open separate accounts or transfer funds across platforms; instead, they can search, compare prices, and execute cross-platform orders within a single interface, with the system automatically routing orders to the exchange offering the best net price. The platform is fully integrated with IBKR’s existing trading environment, supporting unified management and real-time tracking of prediction market positions alongside other asset classes—including stocks, options, futures, and cryptocurrencies. Initially, the platform will focus on contracts tied to election outcomes, climate events, and economic indicators, with plans to integrate additional exchanges in the future.
Odaily Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced a partnership with Interactive Brokers.According to the terms of the collaboration, Interactive Brokers has integrated Kalshi's prediction market into its existing trading platform. Users can manage their prediction market positions and traditional investment portfolios within a single interface, and access real-time data on positions, liquidity, and prices.The prediction markets initially available will primarily cover topics such as election outcomes, climate events, and economic indicators.
Cathie Wood posted on X platform, stating that ARK participated in Kalshi's latest funding round, believing that prediction markets are emerging as a new layer of financial infrastructure, enabling real-time price discovery around events, probabilities, and the evolving state of the world. Kalshi is at the forefront of this innovation, and ARK supports the team in pushing the boundaries of how information is aggregated and expressed through markets.
According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus curiae brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, supporting Kalshi’s appeal in its litigation against Ohio and asserting that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s regulatory jurisdiction. The CFTC stated that Ohio’s prior demand that Kalshi cease offering sports-event contracts constituted “jurisdictional overreach.” The CFTC warned that if states were permitted to restrict sports-event contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCMs), the CFTC’s long-standing regulatory authority over event contracts, swaps, and binary options markets could be undermined. The outcome of this case will also impact prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, supporting prediction market platform Kalshi and pushing back against a lawsuit previously filed by the state of Ohio.Ohio argues that Kalshi's prediction market operations constitute unlicensed sports betting, while the CFTC contends that these markets fall under federal regulatory authority and that states have no right to overstep those boundaries.CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the Ohio district court's previous interpretation of the CFTC's jurisdiction was "too narrow" and hopes the appellate court will correct this.Over the past few months, the CFTC has sued states including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York to defend its regulatory authority over prediction markets. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gain increasing popularity, the dispute over the regulatory boundary between federal and state governments continues to widen.
Odaily Startup Incubator Y Combinator will hold its first-ever interview session specifically for fintech and crypto startups in New York City, aiming to support more companies in this sector. The interviews will be held offline on May 21st. Selected startups will join the Summer 2026 batch and receive a standard investment of $500,000. Chosen projects can opt to receive funding in the form of USDC stablecoins. To date, Y Combinator has invested in over 150 crypto and fintech companies, including Coinbase, OpenSea, and Kalshi.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on its proposed rules for prediction markets, reflecting intensifying regulatory discussion in this space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the proposed regulatory framework, viewing it as conducive to industry standardization and development. However, some stakeholders have called for stricter regulation and enforcement measures to mitigate potential risks. Market analysts note that this comment period highlights substantial disagreement regarding the compliance boundaries, product classification, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets. The finalization of these rules may thus become a pivotal factor shaping the industry’s future development.
data from Predictefy shows that since Hyperliquid launched its event contract (prediction market) products, the trading volume of Bitcoin price-related event contracts on the platform within the same timeframe has exceeded that of similar markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and all other prediction platforms.Previously, Hyperliquid launched its event contract market yesterday, with the first market being a daily settlement BTC price performance market.
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
In response to the first customized commodity trade completed on the Kalshi platform, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X platform, "Historically, the bottleneck for institutional risk transfer has been liquidity. The bottleneck for liquidity is the lack of price benchmarks for each type of relevant risk (e.g., WTI for oil). Kalshi has built a large community of top global superforecasters who rank among the world's best at pricing risk. This allows us to create price benchmarks for a broader range of issues faced by people and institutions. Institutions have already begun adopting these price benchmarks by integrating them into traditional asset pricing models. Although work remains, we are seeing rapid expansion in data use cases and integration.""The next phase is utilizing these price benchmarks to transfer risk via block trades and requests for quote (RFQ). This phase is still in its early stages but is beginning to take shape. The market size for risk transfer of non-traditional financial instruments is difficult to estimate. The closest references are the reinsurance market and the derivatives desks of banks: reinsurance is approximately $700 billion; insurance-linked securities and parametric insurance (such as catastrophe bonds) are around $120-135 billion; bank derivatives (structured products, dealer-to-dealer, exotics, etc.) are about $200-400 billion. The current market is roughly $1-1.5 trillion, but most of it is illiquid and traded over-the-counter (OTC, i.e., with a single counterparty). Whenever a major OTC market moves to exchange trading, the market grows significantly due to the establishment of price benchmarks, narrowing bid-ask spreads, the end of Wall Street elite's monopoly on access, and the entry of new participants. For example, interest rate swaps grew 10-15 times, stock options grew 20-30 times, and energy derivatives grew 5-8 times. The institutional use case for prediction markets could form a $10-15 trillion market, with even greater upside potential, depending on the extent to which it democratizes products currently exclusive to Wall Street."
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on X, citing Bloomberg, that Kalshi has completed its first customized block trade, with Jump Trading providing liquidity support for the transaction. The trade was brokered by Greenlight Commodities this month and executed on behalf of an environmental hedge fund based in Houston, which sought exposure to a contract tracking "whether a specific price will be realized in California's May carbon emissions allowance auction."Mansour commented on this, stating that the institutional application of prediction markets could be a $10-15 trillion market, with growth potential potentially even larger, depending on how extensively they popularize products currently exclusive to Wall Street.
the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.
According to Cointelegraph, Brazilian authorities have announced the blocking of 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood’s prediction feature, and Fanatics Markets. The ban is led by the Ministry of Finance and enforced by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), based on Resolution No. 5,298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on April 25, and will officially take effect in early May. The new regulation explicitly prohibits prediction contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events, deeming them closer in nature to gambling than financial investment; only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices—are permitted. Dario Durigan, Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, stated that prediction markets could exacerbate debt burdens for households and small- and medium-sized enterprises, posing financial risks. Similar restrictions have already been adopted by several countries, including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.